Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard

[prime1time]

Btw, Bryant shot 40% from 3 for the year. From looking at the numbers it seemed that he started to shoot more 3's later into the season. Even if he drops down to 38% I'd love to see him shoot around as many 3's as Brook Lopez (4-6 3's a game). If he can keep his percentages up, we will be a devastating offensive team. Just funny how perception works. Lopez has never had a year over 36.5% from 3. Yet he's a great 3-point shooting big man. The world is Bryant's for the taking.

[doclinkin]

Thomas Bryant is at an inflection point in his career. Has anyone looked at the numbers he put up in bubble? 18.6 ppg, 2 blks, 1.4 steals and 40.5%+ from 3 on 4.6 threes a game. If he can build off this and carry it over into next season I think we will be a good team. If Bryant can solve our big man problems, then everything starts to open up. The most important player this season will be Thomas Bryant.

HOPEFULLY the most important player this season is wearing #2 on his jersey instead of wearing a suit as he has the past few years. I watched Bryant in the Bubble. Feel free to watch the many videos on youtube, he features in many of the opposing team highlights getting blown by or reacting slow or in the wrong place. He still didn't move his feet much. I like the guy. He has some areas of improvement that may just not change much no matter how he works on them.

[prime1time]

Thomas Bryant is at an inflection point in his career. Has anyone looked at the numbers he put up in bubble? 18.6 ppg, 2 blks, 1.4 steals and 40.5%+ from 3 on 4.6 threes a game. If he can build off this and carry it over into next season I think we will be a good team. If Bryant can solve our big man problems, then everything starts to open up. The most important player this season will be Thomas Bryant.

HOPEFULLY the most important player this season is wearing #2 on his jersey instead of wearing a suit as he has the past few years. I watched Bryant in the Bubble. Feel free to watch the many videos on youtube, he features in many of the opposing team highlights getting blown by or reacting slow or in the wrong place. He still didn't move his feet much. I like the guy. He has some areas of improvement that may just not change much no matter how he works on them.

That was my initial thought process but Wall will not be playing back-to-backs and he will also be on minute restrictions. Bryant's ability to anchor an above-average defense is a bigger deal, but we are splitting hairs. And I'll check out videos from the bubble but I don't think there's any good videos on his defense. Maybe I'll look to see if my league pass is still active.

[NatP4]

What does bryant have to solve for us? He is one of the best players on the team??? I think the biggest misconception with this team is that they have issues at the center position. Bryant and Wagner gave us 48 minutes of a quality play. Bryant is a gem. He averages 19-10-3-2 and doesn’t turn the ball over. He does it on elite efficiency as well. His advanced numbers are near the top for the C position.

This team was bad because of the guard play and because the last couple of 1st round picks that they drafted, are not good players....yet.

Wall (out) Smith&napier (meh)
Beal (one way player, meh)
Bonga (good) brown (bad)
Hachimura (bad) Bertens (good)
Bryant (good) Wagner (good)

They need Beal to play defense again, which he will if he doesn’t have to do EVERYTHING again, and quality PG play from someone(don’t know who), and improvement from Brown and Hachimura to passable NBA players.

[doclinkin]

Ha! Wagner: good. Brown: Bad.

[NatP4]

Ha! Wagner: good. Brown: Bad.

I like Troy brown and think he will be a good player, but last season he posted a .524 TS% and ranked 93 out of 99 small forwards in real plus minus. He is not a good player yet.

Mo Wagner per 36: 17 points 9.4 rebounds 2.4 assists on .638 TS%. His real plus minus was not great, but significantly better than Troy Brown at -1.60 (brown had a -4.00)

[payitforward]

Tell me, Nat... how is "Real plus minus" calculated? Because I don't know. If you don't know how it's calculated either, as I assume, then how can you possibly cite it as if it meant something?

Here's what we do know:

If a team's box score numbers are better than average overall, that team will have a better than average W-L record. It will be an above average team. This is true, not speculation. Go take a look if you doubt it.

&, guess what? Since a team's box score numbers are simply the direct result of all the team's players' box score numbers, the only way a team can have a better than average W-L record is if, overall, its' players box score numbers are better than average.

There is no other way for a team to be above average. Period. I hope that's clear & obvious.

Accordingly, if a particular player's box score numbers are better than average at his position, that player is an above average player at that position. Period. Of course, how many minutes he plays affects how much he helps the team win. But at any number of minutes, he helps more (i.e. is a better player) than someone whose box score numbers aren't as good as his.

Hence, if we want to know how good Troy Brown is, what do we do? We look at his box score numbers. Duh. So, let's do that.

Per 40 minutes...

An average wing scores 18 points
Last year, Troy scored 15.33 points (that's a real "minus" of 2.67 points)

An average wing got those points on 14.83 shots & 3.42 FTAs.
Troy took 14 shots & 3.1 FTAs.
Essentially, in other words he scored those 2.67 fewer points on 1 the equivalent of one fewer shot.
Essentially (given his TS%) had he taken the same number of shots as an average wing, he'd be down 1.67 points from average. That's how much of a scoring deficit he has versus an average wing.

Thing is, he gets most of that back via .33 fewer turnovers than average & .33 more steals than average. Include those differences in your calculation, & troy's TS% looks like 54.4% -- 2% up from where it is & 1% lower than average for a wing.

So, for him to be a better than an average wing, the rest of his box score numbers would have to make up for that deficit & more. Do they?

Overall, on fouls, blocked shots & assists, he's about average. So no help there.

But.. he's not exactly "average" rebounding the ball. In fact, he's superlative for a wing:

Troy gets over 45% more defensive rebounds than average for a wing. & he gets fully 75% more offensive boards than an average wing.

The result? Overall, Troy Brown's box score numbers are substantially above average for an NBA wing. Quite a lot above average. & that's what Troy is. A well above average NBA wing. Already. At 21 years of age.

Guess what's even better? Troy's numbers went up pretty much across the board from his rookie year to his second year. On substantially more minutes. & since, as I mentioned, he's only 21 years old, I think it's sensible to expect those numbers to continue to improve. Most players peak in their mid-20's not at 21.

Just for clarity: not just a team's record but whether a team won or lost a particular game can be calculated directly from box score numbers for that game. In other words, if we are talking about play that either helps a team win or prevents a team from winning, all we need to look at is box score numbers.

Are there marginal effects of one player on another -- spacing, etc.? Of course there are! Let me know as soon as you have a provable way to calculate their effect.

Does defense matter -- aspects of defense that aren't captured by box score numbers? Sure. But, they don't eclipse those numbers. Not at all.

[payitforward]

If we run through the same exercise for Moritz Wagner -- don't worry, I'm not going to do it! -- the result is a guy whose overall box score numbers are worse -- way, way worse! -- than average for an NBA big.

IOW, Troy Brown is a good player. Moritz Wagner is a bad player.

Of course, citing the numbers you like (e.g. his excellent TS%) without mentioning that he commits 50% more turnovers than average & almost twice as many fouls as average will allow you to draw a conclusion that has, essentially, no relationship to reality. End of story.

[Ed Wood]

Delving into RPM, what it is, what its results can be taken to stand for and what they cannot, is really interesting if you're so inclined: https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/. I agree that it's not a perfect encapsulating metric, but it has looked about as effective as other non-proprietary barometer:

*

In any event, the take that we aren't whipping up RPM values in our living rooms and so cannot trust them is not my favorite. I'm a more invested basketball fan than most, but I'm not going to pretend I have the time or the know how to supersede tools prepared by those better equipped than I (it's not a conversation ender either, just a useful tool and better than most other one-stop-shop encapsulations).

I am also not going to go to the mat for Mo Wagner exactly, but I do wonder why he seems in danger of getting voted off the island. He had an up and down year last year and has clear flaws (though some of those are very common in young big men and not necessarily permanent features of his game). He still looks like he's going to be a rotation caliber NBA player fairly soon. He is, admittedly, not a great guy to paper over the issues that Bryant has and that the Wizards on the whole have had, which might make him a less than ideal complement. I think that's being too picky given the roster and the team's immediate prospects (aha).


* see https://fansided.com/2019/01/08/nylon-calculus-best-advanced-stat/
- the "probably" qualifier there is because RPM is newer and so has a less complete data set to draw conclusions from.

[Ruzious]

Wagner's decline was really brutal to watch. If it was reversed - that he started off putridly and improved dramatically, I'd want to keep him. Guess I'm a what have you done for me lately fan, but I try to avoid players that fall off a cliff after good starts - not to mention players that average 6.6 fouls per 36 minutes. Also, I think the NBA (including officials) caught up with Wagner and his offensive foul-drawing strategies. Fair or not, the NBA does not like players who try that hard to draw offensive fouls. That was pretty clear from the reactions he was getting.

[NatP4]

If we run through the same exercise for Moritz Wagner -- don't worry, I'm not going to do it! -- the result is a guy whose overall box score numbers are worse -- way, way worse! -- than average for an NBA big.

IOW, Troy Brown is a good player. Moritz Wagner is a bad player.

Of course, citing the numbers you like (e.g. his excellent TS%) without mentioning that he commits 50% more turnovers than average & almost twice as many fouls as average will allow you to draw a conclusion that has, essentially, no relationship to reality. End of story.

With all due respect PIF, I do not care at all. We have had this argument numerous times. You disregard the same advanced stats that are explained to you repeatedly. I just realized that Kenneth Faried is out of the NBA and playing in China by the way.

Brown will be a good player, I have no doubt. Wagner probably peaked last season if I had to guess. There is more to defense than steal and block totals. I am not interested in arguing Troy brown vs Mo Wagner.

[tontoz]

I looked into RPM awhile back. Unlike most stats it is actually a predictive stat so when you look at a players RPM stat early in the season much of the result is a reflection of the previous season's results. They do it that way to reduce some of the volatility for +/- in small sample sizes.

Just don't ask me how it is calculated lol.

[payitforward]

If we run through the same exercise for Moritz Wagner -- don't worry, I'm not going to do it! -- the result is a guy whose overall box score numbers are worse -- way, way worse! -- than average for an NBA big.

IOW, Troy Brown is a good player. Moritz Wagner is a bad player.

Of course, citing the numbers you like (e.g. his excellent TS%) without mentioning that he commits 50% more turnovers than average & almost twice as many fouls as average will allow you to draw a conclusion that has, essentially, no relationship to reality. End of story.

With all due respect PIF, I do not care at all. We have had this argument numerous times. You disregard the same advanced stats that are explained to you repeatedly. I just realized that Kenneth Faried is out of the NBA and playing in China by the way.

Brown will be a good player, I have no doubt. Wagner probably peaked last season if I had to guess. There is more to defense than steal and block totals. I am not interested in arguing Troy brown vs Mo Wagner.

No worries, Nat -- I'm not interested in an argument.

If there were an "advanced stat" with significant explanatory power, I'd be all over it. But, unless the formula is public, we have no way to know what its power is. There is no way to test it. Surely this should be obvious to anyone.

Not to mention that the term "advanced" is one of praise & no more. What's "advanced" mean in this context? Not to mention that in most cases these are not "stats" -- statistics -- at all. Certainly, RPM isn't one.

Of course, RPM might still have merit. & if it were "explained" -- to me or anyone -- it would be possible to judge how much merit it has. But it isn't explained; it's a "trade secret."

Nor, to my knowledge, has anyone tested it for correlation with team results -- & without that, it's completely meaningless. The NBA isn't ballet or a gymnastics floor routine. If performance metric doesn't correlate with team record, it's of no interest. Conveys no information.

& there you have the problem. RPM is mystery meat. Not on my diet.

[nate33]

* see https://fansided.com/2019/01/08/nylon-calculus-best-advanced-stat/

Great article. Here's a notable paragraph:

Like PER, Win Shares and Wins Produced are far less predictive with lower continuity lineups. These were the two stats that were most sensitive to new teammates when we examined year-to-year stability, yet it appears their volatility is based more on teammate performance than accurately evaluating players. It’s implausible that these stats are correctly pegging a player’s circumstantial value — that Kevin Love really was that indispensable among his specific teammates in Cleveland and then his value shrunk in 2019 without them — because this would have to happen while the inverse occurred for LeBron in LA, and then that phenomenon would need to repeat itself among hundreds of critical player-seasons. (If you’re wondering about sample size, there were 225 teams in the under-72 percent continuity group.)

PIF will never recover!

[payitforward]

That notable paragraph is logically incoherent. Players are people not machines; they vary from season to season in the absence of any changes. Let alone otherwise.

That said, I'll read the article more carefully.

I'll remind you of something I've said a zillion times: none of these metrics are stand-ins for reality. Don't compare them to reality. There is nothing to learn from the comparison.

What you can do is compare them to one another: which enables you to account for how well a team does. Thus if you take, say win shares, & you check every player on a team for how many win shares per 48 minutes he produces, then you multiply that number in a way to account for each player's minutes (say a guy played 480 minutes -- multiply by 10), you will get a number that should be close to that team's actual wins.

To know whether win shares is a superior metric to, say, PER, repeat that calculation for PER to see what it tells you the team's wins should have been.

Which is closer to actuality? That's the better metric between the two. Period. Obviously, you'd have to do it a bunch of times (i.e. different teams) to know for sure.

Any metric that claims it evaluates how good individual players are has to be subjected to that test.

[payitforward]

In his last 3 games, Thomas Bryant has taken 30 shots. He's made 26 of them. 8 of those FGAs were 3-pointers. He made 5 of them. That's 57 points from 30 shots.

In fact, on the season so far, Bryant is 52 for 78. He is at 50% on 3-pointers.

[DCsOwn]

https://theathletic.com/2301054/2021/01/04/thomas-bryant-washington-wizards-nba/

"He’s 26-of-30 (87 percent) over these last three games. The only other three players to do that over the past 30 years are Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela — three elite, rim-diving centers. He appears to be entering that class of scorer. And he has the jump shot to complement it. If he turns some of his mid-rangers into 3s, the efficiency will tick even higher. No exaggeration: Every, single 3-pointer he’s attempted this year has been open."

[tontoz]

Bryant's success is another reason why i cringe when Beal or especially Russ take a jumper early in the clock. We can get a jumper from them any time so when there is plenty of time on the clock lets work it around for a better shot.

Russ and Beal both missed far more shots than Bryant attempted.

[NatP4]

https://theathletic.com/2301054/2021/01/04/thomas-bryant-washington-wizards-nba/

"He’s 26-of-30 (87 percent) over these last three games. The only other three players to do that over the past 30 years are Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela — three elite, rim-diving centers. He appears to be entering that class of scorer. And he has the jump shot to complement it. If he turns some of his mid-rangers into 3s, the efficiency will tick even higher. No exaggeration: Every, single 3-pointer he’s attempted this year has been open."

This is pretty insane. The other 3 players listed did nothing but dunk. Bryant attempted 6 3pt shots in that 3 game span.

[pcbothwel]

https://theathletic.com/2301054/2021/01/04/thomas-bryant-washington-wizards-nba/

"He’s 26-of-30 (87 percent) over these last three games. The only other three players to do that over the past 30 years are Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Clint Capela — three elite, rim-diving centers. He appears to be entering that class of scorer. And he has the jump shot to complement it. If he turns some of his mid-rangers into 3s, the efficiency will tick even higher. No exaggeration: Every, single 3-pointer he’s attempted this year has been open."

This is pretty insane. The other 3 players listed did nothing but dunk. Bryant attempted 6 3pt shots in that 3 game span.

I'll keep saying it. Top 5 offensive Big man in the league behind Jokic, AD, KAT, and Embiid. He's with Vuc & Bam right now, but I could see him surpassing one, if not both.

If Centers dont respect his shooting, I'd let him shoot open 3's all day and live with the results.