RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #22 (Kevin Durant)

[Doctor MJ]

Pettit's one ring came in a year where Cliff Hagan in just his second year outplayed Pettit in the play-offs. In terms of quality of his ring, it's more akin to Wade's 12 and 13 performances than the 06 one.

Hold on here. Drill down a level. What was the Hawks path in the playoffs?

Just 2 rounds: Detroit, Boston.

Detroit was a sub-500 team with a bad defense who the Hawks blew out in the first round.
Boston was the champion who would go on to win every playoff series they played from 1957 to 1966 except this one, and who was known for defense, and the Hawks won here by one point in Game 7.

Against Detroit, Hagan scored 30.8 ppg while Pettit scored 18.0.
Against Boston, Pettit scored 29.3 ppg while Hagan scored 25.2.

It's worth noting also that in Game 7 against Boston, Pettit scored 50 while Hagan had 15.
It also has to be mentioned that Russell obviously wasn't himself in that game.

While I think Russell's injury really puts a damper on the Hawks accomplishment, and thus Pettit's accomplishment, Pettit was clearly the one more responsible for the Hawks actually beating the Celtics, which was the only real competition the Hawks faced that year.

I will say I do like Hagan getting brought up though. Dude was a gamer, and I think has a case for making the Top 100 definitely. But I'd see him as a fundamentally different candidate if I actually thought he was the star player on a championship team during their playoff run, and I'm afraid I just don't.

[eminence]

on Isiah & Stockton

.

Forgetting Bob Davies already?

But seriously, there's a lot of PGs I'd like to see this sort of thing for - Frazier for a guy I expect to come up pretty soon.

[eminence]

Pettit's one ring came in a year where Cliff Hagan in just his second year outplayed Pettit in the play-offs. In terms of quality of his ring, it's more akin to Wade's 12 and 13 performances than the 06 one.

Pettit/Hagan.

This is good, true stuff.

Another similar recent situation was the '16 Thunder (imo). KD's playoffs often get brought down that year, due to a horrific Dallas series, when against SAS/GSW he was likely their best player.

[Doctor MJ]

Pettit/Hagan.

This is good, true stuff.

Another similar recent situation was the '16 Thunder (imo). KD's playoffs often get brought down that year, due to a horrific Dallas series, when against SAS/GSW he was likely their best player.

Thanks, and yeah I'm hoping people notice the "drill down" approach. I did it early in this thread relating to Nash in '05-06 as well.

When you see data that appears to be a discrepant event, that's a time to dive deeper. You want to avoid a situation where you end up with a minority opinion because you didn't factor in something that those who were there at the time understood.

Not saying I never make mistakes along those lines - we all do and we have to be willing to just acknowledge them and move on, no shame - but if you aren't looking to "drill down", then in contexts like this you're likely to make radical statements based on superficial assessments that don't hold up as a matter of course, and that's not something I think anyone wants.

[NRSV]

Really enjoying this series as a lurker. Please keep it up and finish it out. It's being linked all across the net on other forums for discussions FYI

[colts18]

I was looking through podcasts today and noticed a podcast with Avery Johnson and John Stockton's name was in the description. Johnson was asked who his toughest matchup was:

"hands down John Stockton. Didn't get much sleep the night before when you went up against him."
"His toughness, high BBall IQ, the way he can dominate a game without scoring."
"VERY physical. Set hard screens."

From 3:15 to 5:30 in the podcast

https://scorebooklive.com/washington/2020/11/25/avery-johnson-went-from-going-undrafted-in-nba-to-guarding-john-stockton-the-iso-podcast-with-dan-dickau/

Here is Baron Davis talking about how an old John Stockton used to embarrass him. He also mentions Stockton's tough screens:

"John Stockton made me feel like 'Damn do I know how to even play basketball"
"I couldn't do nothing with him. I was glad when he was gone."

From 1:00 to 3:30 in the video.

Watch on YouTube

Gary Payton says John Stockton was his most difficult cover.

Watch on YouTube

When George Karl was asked the one player that drove him nuts he mentioned John Stockton. He praised his bball IQ, savvy, and instincts.

From 1:15-2:30 in the video.

Watch on YouTube

Steve Kerr, Kenny Smith, and Zeke talk about Stockton and Nash. All of them mention how physical and tough Stockton was. They also mention the screens he set

Watch on YouTube

I find it interesting how all of John Stockton's contemporaries are always mentioning him as one of their most difficult matchups, but none of Nash's, Payton, Kidd, Zeke's contemporaries go out of their way to praise them. All of them were gushing about Stockton. The amount of praise Stockton was unrivaled.

[D.Brasco]

I'm quite enjoying this series as an observer but I feel with Mikan getting into the top 20 this should really open the door to at least stars of the late 50s early 60s period getting selected. Abstractly I can see arguments for Bob Pettit and Elgin Baylor over Mikan.

Otherwise his selection is going to start looking like an odd man out if everyone immediately following him is a player from the last 30 years or so.

[eminence]

I'm quite enjoying this series as an observer but I feel with Mikan getting into the top 20 this should really open the door to at least stars of the late 50s early 60s period getting selected. Abstractly I can see arguments for Bob Pettit and Elgin Baylor over Mikan.

Otherwise his selection is going to start looking like an odd man out if everyone immediately following him is a player from the last 30 years or so.

I'd expect Pettit to get in in the not too distant future. Though as of now I'm leaning towards putting my support behind Schayes before Pettit.

[Owly]

Against Boston, Pettit scored 29.3 ppg while Hagan scored 25.2.

It's worth noting also that in Game 7 (six) against Boston, Pettit scored 50 while Hagan had 15.

Serious question ... how much is it worth noting i.e. do deciding games and/or seventh games in general carry more weight?

1) That data is already in point 1, shouldn't you do a 1-5 game average if one is to separate out g6. Or else not repeat only one datapoint (maybe each individual game)?
2) If they do carry more weight and warrant additional focus (either G7 and other "winner take all games" [e.g. g5 in best of 5]) or as here deciding games or potentially deciding games) how much so and why?

Just curious, sorry for off topic and feel free to point elsewhere if already discussed.

[Cavsfansince84]

I'm quite enjoying this series as an observer but I feel with Mikan getting into the top 20 this should really open the door to at least stars of the late 50s early 60s period getting selected. Abstractly I can see arguments for Bob Pettit and Elgin Baylor over Mikan.

Otherwise his selection is going to start looking like an odd man out if everyone immediately following him is a player from the last 30 years or so.

I'd expect Pettit to get in in the not too distant future. Though as of now I'm leaning towards putting my support behind Schayes before Pettit.

I would hope so. I've had Pettit at #1 for the last couple of rounds and will likely have Havlicek and Schayes on my ballot pretty soon along with Barry.

[penbeast0]

I'm quite enjoying this series as an observer but I feel with Mikan getting into the top 20 this should really open the door to at least stars of the late 50s early 60s period getting selected. Abstractly I can see arguments for Bob Pettit and Elgin Baylor over Mikan.

Otherwise his selection is going to start looking like an odd man out if everyone immediately following him is a player from the last 30 years or so.

I'd expect Pettit to get in in the not too distant future. Though as of now I'm leaning towards putting my support behind Schayes before Pettit.

Can you make the case why you feel Schayes was better than Pettit because the numbers we have for scoring, efficiency, and rebounding . . . they aren't that close. Schayes had long range and good defense and was the third best forward of that era behind Pettit and Arizin (4th once Baylor gets into the league and you could make a case for Yardley as up there too) but I'm interested in hearing it.

[eminence]

I'm quite enjoying this series as an observer but I feel with Mikan getting into the top 20 this should really open the door to at least stars of the late 50s early 60s period getting selected. Abstractly I can see arguments for Bob Pettit and Elgin Baylor over Mikan.

Otherwise his selection is going to start looking like an odd man out if everyone immediately following him is a player from the last 30 years or so.

I'd expect Pettit to get in in the not too distant future. Though as of now I'm leaning towards putting my support behind Schayes before Pettit.

Can you make the case why you feel Schayes was better than Pettit because the numbers we have for scoring, efficiency, and rebounding . . . they aren't that close. Schayes had long range and good defense and was the third best forward of that era behind Pettit and Arizin (4th once Baylor gets into the league and you could make a case for Yardley as up there too) but I'm interested in hearing it.

Good question!

First the portions of each career I consider most relevant:
Schayes '49-'61 (13 seasons)
Pettit '55-'64 (10 seasons)

Advantages for Pettit:
Scoring volume - used his rebounding and a bit craftier around the hoop in general imo
Rebounding - the volume gap is obvious, though Schayes wasn't a weak rebounder either (led the league once)
Individual Accolades - not so high on these, don't think he was the best choice for either MVP he won (Arizin/Russell)

Advantages for Schayes:
Shooting - Schayes had really really deep range
Defense - by far most impressed by Schayes '54 where he was the main big on a -4.5 defense squad, levels above any defensive accomplishment from Pettit imo
Longevity - see the relevant career portions above
Team Success - think his squads were more consistently good

Very similar in a lot of other ways. Efficiency wise I see them pretty close, Pettit a career 51% TS guy, Schayes 49%. 109 and 108 TS+ respectively (for guys who like modern comps, that's about the same as LeBron/Dirk/K.Malone/etc). View both as solid playoff performers.

[eminence]

One thing I would be interested in head to head stats and records for the two between '55 and '61.

I see that BBref feature is behind the paywall these days, so no luck for me

[Dr Positivity]

I'm not sure -2.7 in 61 is less impressive team defense result than -4.5 in 54. Considering Pettit played on several good defensive teams (top 2/top 3) it seems based on limited information to say he or Schayes is better on defense. I have not seen quotes from the time praising Schayes defense.

[colts18]

One thing I would be interested in head to head stats and records for the two between '55 and '61.

I see that BBref feature is behind the paywall these days, so no luck for me

Here at the stats. Pettit crushes him.

Player PTS TRB AST FG% W-L
Bob Pettit 26.0 17 2.4 0.422 35-29
Dolph Schayes 21.8 13 2.3 0.346 29-35

Note: Not all of the games had complete box scores.

[trex_8063]

I don't know whether certain criticisms are wearing me down ['cause I'm also flirting with some new ways of viewing total career value], but I've opted to flip my 1st and 2nd votes, so Chris Paul is now my first pick. If anyone is keeping track, that's actually how I had it a couple threads ago before having a change of heart [but now I've reverted]. Really everyone in the 19-23 range [and especially 19-21] on my ATL is very very fluid; can never seem to hammer down an order I'm fully content with.

[Cavsfansince84]

Very similar in a lot of other ways. Efficiency wise I see them pretty close, Pettit a career 51% TS guy, Schayes 49%. 109 and 108 TS+ respectively (for guys who like modern comps, that's about the same as LeBron/Dirk/K.Malone/etc). View both as solid playoff performers.

Not quite sure what the bolded part means. In terms of ts add Pettit was the more prolific scorer and had 8 seasons with ts add above 150 to Schayes' 3 and 3 above 200 to Schayes' 1.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #36:

Kevin Durant - 3 (Dutchball97, Joey Wheeler, Joao Saraiva)
Stephen Curry - 2 (Doctor MJ, penbeast0)
Chris Paul - 1 (trex_8063)
Bob Pettit - 1 (Cavsfansince84)


About 20 hours left for this thread.

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[Magic Is Magic]

Voting for the #22 spot:

1. Kevin Durant
2. Moses Malone
3. Stephen Curry

1. I really dislike Kevin Durant's move in 2017 but his overall resume is hard to ignore. 4x Scoring Champion, MVP, 4 Finals, 2 Finals MVPs, 11-straight seasons of 25 ppg or more, 10x All Star (approaching Oscar level who had 12), ROY. KD has averaged 25 ppg or higher every single playoff run and has one of the top 6 all time Finals when ranked by Game Score. He is 14th all time in MVP win shares, 10th all time in playoff points. Again, strongly dislike his move in 2017 but the rest is hard to ignore. I don't think any player not already included in the top 14 has that resume to match up with him.

-Top 10 all time playoff scoring (every one ahead of him in playoff points is already ranked ahead of him except for Tony Parker but KD will pass TP in his next playoff run in 2021 meaning he will be at least top 9 all time in playoff scoring)
-11-straight 25 ppg seasons
-EVERY playoff run is 25 ppg or higher
-4 Scoring Titles
-4 Finals
-2 Finals MVPs
-1 Regular season MVP
-No one else is close offensively if you ask me, and probably not even remotely close. He has that uncanny ability to pull off a 30 ppg 50/40/90 season, something that very few have ever been able to do


2. Moses Malone with nearly 30k points is huge! He is sitting at 9th all time at 27,409 which is a big accomplishment no doubt about it. Plus him being top 30 in playoff rebounds is notable as is his 3x MVP which is another big accomplishment. Come to think of it, there aren't any other 3x MVP winners that aren't already ranked in this discussion (LBJ, MJ, Bird, Kareem, Wilt, Russell off the top of my mind). Lastly, you can't talk about all time great playoff runs without mentioning that 1983 run. That 76ers run is one of very few to win a championship while only losing 1 game along the way. The others that come to mind are the 2001 Lakers and 2017 Warriors. Which means Moses is one of only three teams to ever do it! (albeit the 76ers was 12-1, not 15-1 LAL or 16-1 GSW)

3. Stephen Curry is one of those guys that is hard to rank mostly because he doesn't have that Finals MVP yet but everything else he has done is ridiculous. First of all, being able to make it to 5 straight Finals is amazing. We downplay that because of LeBron but truthfully they are the only two to every make 5 straight Finals since probably 1960 or so? Meanwhile guys are trying to slide in Stockton who only ever made 2 Finals for his whole career and never won a ring. Curry making 5 straight Finals alone, that right there is amazing, but his greatness goes even further. He also won 3 of them, while achieving the greatest regular season run in the history of our sport. 73 wins. Unanimous MVP. 30 ppg, off a 50/40/90 split season. He has all the three pointer records too, most in a single season, most in the playoffs, and will eventually pass Ray Allen for most all time in the RS, and he has already passed him by nearly 100 in playoff 3-pointers. His offensive gravity is remarkable and easy to give dismiss. Teams in the playoffs were nearly forced to pick him up as soon as he crossed half court or they were repeatedly sending hard doubles at him. No other perimeter player has faced that type of defensive attention. Anyway, in a nut shell. 2x MVP, 3x Rings, 5x Finals, Only U-MVP in league history, 1st in PO 3-pointers, soon to be 1st in RS 3-pointers as well. I can't put a guy with 2 Finals and zero rings or MVPs above that. NOPE.

[eminence]

One thing I would be interested in head to head stats and records for the two between '55 and '61.

I see that BBref feature is behind the paywall these days, so no luck for me

Here at the stats. Pettit crushes him.

Player PTS TRB AST FG% W-L
Bob Pettit 26.0 17 2.4 0.422 35-29
Dolph Schayes 21.8 13 2.3 0.346 29-35

Note: Not all of the games had complete box scores.

Thanks Colts, do they have more detailed stuff to calculate TS%? As that's slightly above their normal FG% gap (about 2% I think), but Schayes makes up a ton ground by being a .5 Ftr player shooting 85% from the line.

May I ask which years were missing more complete box scores in general, or pretty evenly distributed?