Diop wrote:amcoolio wrote:vorbis wrote:where is this clear path to the 5th (or better) pick that everyone's seeing in this hypothetical world where Hayward plays elsewhere this season?
For real, the Knicks were horrible last year and got the 8th pick
Luck isn't on our side, whether we want to admit it or not. We just used it all up for Ball
And we lucked into that, we were playing well as the season ended beating some good teams
I do think it's worth noting the change in lottery odds. I'm obviously on the side of hating the signing for all the reasons laid out by JDR and others.
That being said, even if we bottomed out. It was no guarantee of a top pick. We could have been the 4th worst team, about where I would have expected pre Hayward, and still ended up with the 8th pick.
With the Hayward signing we could also end up picking 8th. The chances are better if we were worse. The worst team gets a top 5 no matter what. We basically went from a 55% chance of getting a top 5 pick to a 25% chance of getting a top pick.
What matters more 30% chance at a top 5 or a 30% chance of making the play in tournament. For me, it's clearly the draft but I understand how others would rather see us in the play in tournament. There's no guarantees on either side.
Ultimately I'm so happy we were able to move up in this 2020 draft because it's abundantly clear to me Westbrook would be Hornet had we not moved up/drafted Ball. I'd still much rather have Ball/Hayward than Westbrook/Wiseman.
