2020-2021 College/Draft thread 1

[robillionaire]

You don't need to be fast at 6'8", I don't think he's slow, he just seems to play at his own speed. Also, young wings like this are almost always trying to get to the rim, the potential in them is that they can handle the ball which is a rare skill for guys this size, and pass which is even more rare. If he proves to be a solid shooter it opens up his entire game. You can just do a lot of funky things that teams have trouble matching up with if you have multiple wings, if we have RJ & Cade obviously we want to develop both into solid catch and shoot guys so that when one has the ball the other is a threat.

I like Suggs a lot, and if Cade is off the board he's the guy I want. With that said It should be a rule by now that you don't draft PG sized players over big wings if skillsets are close, Fultz went over Tatum, Young traded for Luka, Morant went over RJ Big wings almost always win in the end.

I disagree that athleticism difference is how you have a been Simmons vs someone like Lebron, Or Paul George vs like Evan Turner. Just cuz Luka can pull off the average athlete that can get to the rim all the time doesn't mean Cade will be able too. I don't even really mean this as a slight to him cuz he's been good but I'd like to see more crafty off the dribble stuff from him. I like how his coach has gotten creative and put him into the post too. He's definitely got some solid skills, I just worry about having two guys that need to bully ball their way to the rim. It's still super early in the process and a lot can and will change before next june, I just like Suggs better ATM.

Athleticism isn't what's separating Simmons and LeBron, it's a jumper, if Simmons were a willing & semi decent 3 point shooter he'd be a top 3 player in the league now. What will make or break Cade is the jumper, if he can make the shot he'll be an elite player because a 6'8" guy handling the ball is still very difficult to defend. He doesn't need to be fast, he needs to be a solid & willing shooter to open up his game to force people to play up on him. Someone like Jimmy Butler isn't ever called an elite athlete, he's just strong and quick enough to get to where he wants to go and he doesn't even take a high volume of threes. There's only 6 guys in the league over 6'7" that averaged 6apg or more, if Cade can be that kind of playmaker he'd be elite.

I'd love to have Cade & RJ, do exactly what the Celtics did with Brown & Tatum and stress their development in catch & shoot situations. I like Suggs a lot, but Cade is the number 1 pick because of what it would allow us to do in terms of team build, especially if Obi can score.

if quickley pans out as a shooter and a speedy guard who can penetrate he would be a good fit with cade and rj/toppin/mitch. I guess if you look at cade/?/rj/toppin/mitch you definitely need an elite shooter in that last spot but also with cade maybe you need a penetrating speedster. I'm not sure what kind of player would be the ideal fit there

[jvsimonetti0514]

You don't need to be fast at 6'8", I don't think he's slow, he just seems to play at his own speed. Also, young wings like this are almost always trying to get to the rim, the potential in them is that they can handle the ball which is a rare skill for guys this size, and pass which is even more rare. If he proves to be a solid shooter it opens up his entire game. You can just do a lot of funky things that teams have trouble matching up with if you have multiple wings, if we have RJ & Cade obviously we want to develop both into solid catch and shoot guys so that when one has the ball the other is a threat.

I like Suggs a lot, and if Cade is off the board he's the guy I want. With that said It should be a rule by now that you don't draft PG sized players over big wings if skillsets are close, Fultz went over Tatum, Young traded for Luka, Morant went over RJ Big wings almost always win in the end.

I disagree that athleticism difference is how you have a been Simmons vs someone like Lebron, Or Paul George vs like Evan Turner. Just cuz Luka can pull off the average athlete that can get to the rim all the time doesn't mean Cade will be able too. I don't even really mean this as a slight to him cuz he's been good but I'd like to see more crafty off the dribble stuff from him. I like how his coach has gotten creative and put him into the post too. He's definitely got some solid skills, I just worry about having two guys that need to bully ball their way to the rim. It's still super early in the process and a lot can and will change before next june, I just like Suggs better ATM.

Suggs does seem more dynamic and easier to integrate into our current core. He’d bring another dimension to the team with his speed. It’ll be interesting to see what their FG% from different spots will look like at the end of the year.

Suggs passing and athleticism has really just wowed me. He's got some advanced moves in his dribble package too. Some of the guys he found in his first game blew me away, they we're really tough passes. With guys like RJ and Toppin on the roster, It be nice to have someone that can get those guys going and can take over when it's needed. Cade right now just seems like more of a scorer right now.

[jvsimonetti0514]

I'll say one nice thing about bad hair Boston and that is he's got some real crafty finishes around the rim and seems to have pretty nice touch too.

[thebuzzardman]

What are these what ifs? Morant had better teammates around him that fit his skillset, he shot worse than RJ once that player was removed from the equation.

I don't see how Morant is any more special than Fox, Murray, SGA or Young, the PG position is loaded and I get that we don't have one which leads to us wanting one, but we have a young wing that had rookie numbers comparable to all-star wings. There's positional scarcity that you're just overlooking while citing things that just don't matter, why should we care about past rankings when we're talking about how players will develop?

This argument somewhat reminds me of the Derrick Rose vs Evan Turner battle. Evan Turner like RJ was a jack of all trades, master of none. Turner never ended up being better than Rose at any point in their careers

Evan Turner averaged 7ppg as a 22 year old rookie, this is in no way like RJ and Morant


RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

RJ is a Knick, so of course there are Knick fans who have to feel he sucks.

Any evidence to the contrary will be rejected.

[SelbyCobra]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

[DowNY]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

None of those dudes had to deal with the incompetence of the Knicks as a rookie and some of the worst spacing in history

[Tron Carter]

Excited to get a good first look at Zaire Williams tonight. Stanford is playing Alabama tonight at 9:30 for those wanting to tune in.

[jvsimonetti0514]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

He was just really bad in the month of December. If you look at his numbers from January 1st to the end of the year his ts% was 51.01. Which still isn't great but is more in line with those other star wings.

[Chanel Bomber]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

LeBron is definitely an outlier. The hope is that RJ's drive and work ethic will pay off, as it did for LeBron. But without the elite athleticism of LeBron, it will take him longer to reach league average let alone above league average, which is why Knicks fans need to be patient.

The numbers are definitely cause for concern, especially for people like you and me who value TS%. I think there's a safe chance that he's more committed than the guys from the second list, but there's a long road ahead of him. As long as he's showing improvement, I'll remain confident. If he starts stagnating, then we might be in trouble. But I expect him to come back better this upcoming season.

[Garbagelo]

My wish list thus far...
1. Suggs
2. Cunningham
3. Johnson
4. Mobley

Guys I'm watching or waiting to watch or haven't decided on yet:

Boston
Green
Kuminga
Barnes
Love

[jvsimonetti0514]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

LeBron is definitely an outlier. The hope is that RJ's drive and work ethic will pay off, as it did for LeBron. But without the elite athleticism of LeBron, it will take him longer to reach league average let alone above league average, which is why Knicks fans need to be patient.

The numbers are definitely cause for concern, especially for people like you and me who value TS%. I think there's a safe chance that he's more committed than the guys from the second list, but there's a long road ahead of him. As long as he's showing improvement, I'll remain confident. If he starts stagnating, then we might be in trouble. But I expect him to come back better this upcoming season.

It's just really interesting to see how they calculate TS%. So I just decided to look up the his numbers from October and November to back up my theory that his horrible December is what dragged his statline down. Which it did cuz he averaged 11 ppg on 35/30/64. But he put up similar numbers in the fall as he did in the spring but on 1.4 more attempts per game with averages of 41.5/33.9/51. Granted the free throws we're much higher 68.3% in the spring but that drops his ts% from 51 to 46, all from just 1.4 more attempts per game.

[FutureKnicksGM]

Just let this draft come to you. If you get Cade or Suggs with our pick, then sweet; hopefully there'll someone like Josh Christopher or Terrance Clarke still there at the Dallas pick. If we get a wing with our pick then we hope for Caleb Love / Ayo Dosunmu / Daishen Nix with the Mavs pick.

Only thing we should be worrying about this draft is how to get more picks in it.

That first option looks way better to me (and what I hope happens). Get your primary playmaker (and top 3 offensive option) with our pick (Cade/Suggs). Then take advantage of the high level sg prospects in this draft with the DAL pick (Clarke/Christopher/Springer) with the hope of getting another primary offensive option (and maybe some tertiary playmaking too).

I dunno, Ziaire Williams & Caleb Love would be beautiful too.

I’m not to big on Zhaire in comparison with others initially, but hopefully he be another great prospect to increase our odds of getting a foundational piece.

[2010]

Excited to get a good first look at Zaire Williams tonight. Stanford is playing Alabama tonight at 9:30 for those wanting to tune in.

I'm not enamored with his body. His frame is very weak and narrow. He will need some major work on developing his body which would impact his ability to be a difference maker in the short term after being drafted.

[FutureKnicksGM]

Josh Christopher with another good outing, going 8-11. Has some shades of D-Mitch.

Watch on YouTube

I don't see Donovan Mitchell at all. I see more Nick Young vibes. A scorer who isn't likely to be a winning player as he doesn't play a team oriented brand of ball. I hope some other team takes the bait and drafts him high so others fall.

I think he is a better athlete than Young, and will be better getting to the rim. Those are some valid concerns, but I would take the shot with his talent base and hope he develops over time.

[2010]

My current Top 10:
1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Johnson
3. Jalen Suggs
4. Jalen Green
5. BJ Boston
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Evan Mobley
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Terrence Clarke
10. Ibou Dianko Badji

[cgf]

That first option looks way better to me (and what I hope happens). Get your primary playmaker (and top 3 offensive option) with our pick (Cade/Suggs). Then take advantage of the high level sg prospects in this draft with the DAL pick (Clarke/Christopher/Springer) with the hope of getting another primary offensive option (and maybe some tertiary playmaking too).

I dunno, Ziaire Williams & Caleb Love would be beautiful too.

I’m not to big on Zhaire in comparison with others initially, but hopefully he be another great prospect to increase our odds of getting a foundational piece.

Ziaire's length, shot-making potential and upside as a secondary ballhandler are exciting too. Hopefully it translates cause I see a prototypical 3 who can play up, if it does.

[Tron Carter]

Excited to get a good first look at Zaire Williams tonight. Stanford is playing Alabama tonight at 9:30 for those wanting to tune in.

I'm not enamored with his body. His frame is very weak and narrow. He will need some major work on developing his body which would impact his ability to be a difference maker in the short term after being drafted.

Yeah I don’t know much about him outside of some scouting reports. He seems to be still growing from what I’ve read and he’s not the strongest shooter. Still highly touted though so I’ll have to see for myself tn.

[cgf]

The Stepien's bit about Williams sums his intrigue up pretty well:

Ziaire Williams – Stanford – 9/12/2001

Williams is one of the more intriguing upside plays in the class, mostly due to his potential shot-making ability and basketball awareness. At around 6’8 with solid length, Williams displays high-level flashes of touch and versatile shooting off the bounce, along with a good handle. His game out of the PnR is his biggest strength, in my opinion. A mature game, Williams can do a lot of different things out of the PnR and counters how defenses play him very well, including great passing awareness. He tends to often make the simplistic, correct play.

Defensively, Williams is a quick reactor both on- and off-ball, making plays in the passing lanes and contesting shots off the bounce well. His frame can at times can get him pushed around but his ability to use his length and reaction speed mitigates those issues by quite a bit.

If Ziaire hits, then we could be looking at a legitimate wing initiator, which gives me pause on having him too low. In order for that to happen, Williams will have to reach a very high level of shot-making, which is entirely possible, but I struggle betting on that. Even without great on-ball equity, we are looking at a wing with great height and length, playmaking ability, good defensive talent and instincts and great shooting. The positive is that Williams should be looking at a good size creation responsibility as a freshman, allowing him to live and learn in that role. A top 6 player in the class.

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/11/23/2021-draft-preseason-preview/

[NoDopeOnSundays]

RJ's numbers as a rookie are perfectly in line with what other all-star wings did as rookies.

This is actually my biggest fear with RJ - his offensive efficiency. The 47.9 TS% he posted last year was the second worst number in the entire league for players who averaged at least 30 MPG (only fellow Duke wing Justise Winslow was worse), and one of only three such players to even be below .500. His .479 nowhere near the majority of all-star wings as rookies.

Tatum: .586
Kawhi: .573
George: .542
Brown: .539
Middleton: .532
Butler: .526
Siakam: .523
Durant: .519
Giannis: .518
Beal: .515
LeBron: .488
Barrett: .479

I know there are a lot of caveats here, and I know there's a lot about him that engenders hope, but man, that level of inefficiency scoring the ball is just...really bad. Here is the list of all rookies in the last 20 years who have played 30 MPG and posted a TS% less than .480:

• RJ Barrett
• Lonzo Ball
• Emmanual Mudiay
• Elfrid Payton
• Trey Burke
• Michael Carter-Williams
• Ricky Rubio
• Brandon Jennings
• Emeka Okafor
• Jamaal Tinsley
• Kenyon Martin

Brandon Ingram just misses this list because he got 28.8 MPG as a rookie, but he posted a .474 which is hopeful...but at the same time he was known as a shooter coming out, which is something RJ was decidedly not.

I really like the kid and want him to succeed and become elite in the worst way. I think there's a path for him to do it, too. But I'm also very hesitant to think that him becoming an elite player in this league is a high probability outcome.

I don't value TS% that heavily, mainly because most of RJ's issue with it are freethrow percentage related, obviously he needs to improve there, but his raw numbers were similar to all-stars. Also, just to illustrate the freethrow issue, here's what these guys shot on jumpers as rookies.

RJ - .309%
Butler - .319%
Tatum - .422%
Beal - .377%
Giannis -.275%
Durant - .367%
George -.347%
Kawhi - .391%
Brown -.329%
Siakam -.386%
Middleton - .367%
LeBron - .324%
Ingram - .322%


He shot the ball about as well as everyone else did as a rookie, the biggest problem other than spacing was his freethrow shooting. He finished at the rim within the range you'd expect (57% for RJ, LeBron 60% as a rookie), better than some on this list, and worse than others, but the biggest problem is his freethrows which drags down his TS as a whole.

If we get lucky in this draft RJ could be a very good number 2, he doesn't need to be our savior, but he's going to be a 20-24ppg scorer, the efficiency will determine just how good he is in the long run.

[2010]

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