Training Camp One Week Away - What Do You Want To See

[StunnerKO]

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[gardenofsound]

I'd give him $15-16M easily. I'm confident he's going to have a bounce back season and with a new coaching staff, I think they can unlock some of his potential. Could end up a bargain deal, Zach's did.

I'd agree.

At the very least, a contract like that would make it very achievable for him to earn that salary and have value on the trade market. Currently the big value killer for Lauri is that he's going to hit RFA, and who knows what nutcase will offer him the big bucks. That unknown adds risk to acquiring him and spending any meaningful assets to do so.

I think that the league sees his value/potential, particularly if used properly.

IMO, a 4th quartile starter PF in today's NBA is worth the MLE (i.e. $10M). Lauri was a 4th quartile starting PF last season. So paying him more than $10M/yr because of "upside" is giving you contract risk if you want to trade him (for example is PWill shows he's both better and only a PF).

What you're saying here makes sense, but also builds in that the 2019-2020 Lauri Markkanen (3rd year player) is the final product.

To echo a lot of Doug's twitter musings lately, I have to believe that the league has already built his risk (upside and downside) into Lauri's market valuation. Many players don't really show you who they are until years 4/5 of their careers. Underclassmen draftees can take even longer. Add in Lauri now going on his third coach in four years.

At this point I'd weigh that he has a 60% chance of improving on his 2019-2020 numbers, ~30% chance of staying at status quo, and ~10% chance of further regression and struggles.

Obviously, if he triggers that regression outcome, then he becomes a Felicio-type of liability until/unless he rehabilitates his game in subsequent seasons, the chances of which diminish after each successive year.

The thing is, right now I'm pretty sure there's an exec ready to throw $20mm at Lauri as soon as RFA opens next summer. Then the Bulls have to match or let him walk.

Sign him at $15mm/yr and I think he's a trade-able asset as soon as this year's deadline. You may not get much back for him but you'll get something, particularly if someone needs his skills to make a stretch run. You could also package him with OPJ to bring back a disgruntled star.

[StunnerKO]

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[TheFinishSniper]

I'd give him $15-16M easily. I'm confident he's going to have a bounce back season and with a new coaching staff, I think they can unlock some of his potential. Could end up a bargain deal, Zach's did.

Miles Turner has 18M deal per year and he is in similar position to Lauri. And it's no secret he has no value around the league on that deal as Pacers are willing to shop him or get rid of him. Be careful what you wish for. Lauri is starter only because we dont have in this moment anyone better.

Bulls and AK maybe like him but there is point where they dont like him anymore. It just depends how much he is willing to leave on table because let's be real I am ok with him based on last season not extending him at all.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

I'd give him $15-16M easily. I'm confident he's going to have a bounce back season and with a new coaching staff, I think they can unlock some of his potential. Could end up a bargain deal, Zach's did.

Miles Turner has 18M deal per year and he is in similar position to Lauri. And it's no secret he has no value around the league on that deal as Pacers are willing to shop him or get rid of him. Be careful what you wish for. Lauri is starter only because we dont have in this moment anyone better.

Bulls and AK maybe like him but there is point where they dont like him anymore. It just depends how much he is willing to leave on table because let's be real I am ok with him based on last season not extending him at all.

Yeah, well, Myles Turner is putting up 12 and 6 and for arguments sake, he is not the skilled offensive player that Lauri is - so I don't think its that simple. Lauri's floor is higher than that, and he's a value add because of his spacing to other players.

And although Turner is underperforming, its not that absurd of a contract either. The Pacers rolled the dice and probably will end up losing, but it's not going to disable the entire franchise like some other deals. Lauri @ 16M is medium risk, high reward.

[TheFinishSniper]

Yeah, well, Myles Turner is putting up 12 and 6 and for arguments sake, he is not the skilled offensive player that Lauri is - so I don't think its that simple.

And although Turner is underperforming, its not that absurd of a contract either. The Pacers rolled the dice and probably will end up losing, but it's not going to disable the entire franchise like some other deals. Lauri @ 16M is medium risk, high reward.

Only reason Turner cant put better stats is he plays behind much better player which is Sabonis (All-Star) who plays his position and his team is alot better so he cant pad stats on bad team with bigger minutes.

[StunnerKO]

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[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Yeah, well, Myles Turner is putting up 12 and 6 and for arguments sake, he is not the skilled offensive player that Lauri is - so I don't think its that simple.

And although Turner is underperforming, its not that absurd of a contract either. The Pacers rolled the dice and probably will end up losing, but it's not going to disable the entire franchise like some other deals. Lauri @ 16M is medium risk, high reward.

Only reason Turner cant put better stats is he plays behind much better player which is Sabonis (All-Star) who plays his position and his team is alot better so he cant pad stats on bad team with bigger minutes.

Well, I guess I disagree with the your point that no one would trade for Myles Turner then. Because at the moment, I would say he's overpaid but it's not egregious. And that in the right situation (as you pointed out his growth is stunted because of Sabonis) he'd be a better fit on another team.

Similarly, if we got into a situation where Lauri is playing in between how he did in years 1 and 2, and we decide to move him, it not impossible at $16 or $17M. Which is why I would sign him to an extension if it's in that range, its a better gamble

[gardenofsound]

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Just wanna say I appreciate you posting the tweets. Thanks.

[sco]

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Same here!

[sco]

I'd agree.

At the very least, a contract like that would make it very achievable for him to earn that salary and have value on the trade market. Currently the big value killer for Lauri is that he's going to hit RFA, and who knows what nutcase will offer him the big bucks. That unknown adds risk to acquiring him and spending any meaningful assets to do so.

I think that the league sees his value/potential, particularly if used properly.

IMO, a 4th quartile starter PF in today's NBA is worth the MLE (i.e. $10M). Lauri was a 4th quartile starting PF last season. So paying him more than $10M/yr because of "upside" is giving you contract risk if you want to trade him (for example is PWill shows he's both better and only a PF).

What you're saying here makes sense, but also builds in that the 2019-2020 Lauri Markkanen (3rd year player) is the final product.

To echo a lot of Doug's twitter musings lately, I have to believe that the league has already built his risk (upside and downside) into Lauri's market valuation. Many players don't really show you who they are until years 4/5 of their careers. Underclassmen draftees can take even longer. Add in Lauri now going on his third coach in four years.

At this point I'd weigh that he has a 60% chance of improving on his 2019-2020 numbers, ~30% chance of staying at status quo, and ~10% chance of further regression and struggles.

Obviously, if he triggers that regression outcome, then he becomes a Felicio-type of liability until/unless he rehabilitates his game in subsequent seasons, the chances of which diminish after each successive year.

The thing is, right now I'm pretty sure there's an exec ready to throw $20mm at Lauri as soon as RFA opens next summer. Then the Bulls have to match or let him walk.

Sign him at $15mm/yr and I think he's a trade-able asset as soon as this year's deadline. You may not get much back for him but you'll get something, particularly if someone needs his skills to make a stretch run. You could also package him with OPJ to bring back a disgruntled star.

If Lauri were a 3rd year player like you said, I'd have more faith in his upside, but he's a 4th year player and statistics show that a minority of players improve much, if at all, after the 3rd season. That's why I'm against paying for upside in an extension, and would rather see how the market values him after next season. There are too many deficiencies in his game to assume he can fix most of them (average 3pt shooter, below average defender, below average rebounder, below average post scorer, below average half court ball handler). I'd feel better if he noted that he worked on any of these in the offseason in his presser, but all I heard is that he won't hide when he's missing shots like he did last year. Honestly, if he could get his 3pt% to 38% and improve his defense to average, I'd be good with $16M.

[jordanwilliams6]

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I'm glad this is the approach we've taken. This team has a lot of quality young talent but has always been surrounded by poor coaching and a poor management team. Give them room to grow for one more season and see what they are made of with a bit of continuity for once.

If it doesn't pan out then I'd expect a few deals to be made at the trade deadline in preparation for the off season. You may be able to get some quality assets for some if you don't believe they are part of the long term future.

[BigUps]

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[StunnerKO]

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[StunnerKO]

You’re welcome everyone !!!!

[Clocian]

This billy conference is great. What he just talked about Lauri is spot on. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MISMATCH! DON'T JUST LAUNCH 3s!

[gardenofsound]

IMO, a 4th quartile starter PF in today's NBA is worth the MLE (i.e. $10M). Lauri was a 4th quartile starting PF last season. So paying him more than $10M/yr because of "upside" is giving you contract risk if you want to trade him (for example is PWill shows he's both better and only a PF).

What you're saying here makes sense, but also builds in that the 2019-2020 Lauri Markkanen (3rd year player) is the final product.

To echo a lot of Doug's twitter musings lately, I have to believe that the league has already built his risk (upside and downside) into Lauri's market valuation. Many players don't really show you who they are until years 4/5 of their careers. Underclassmen draftees can take even longer. Add in Lauri now going on his third coach in four years.

At this point I'd weigh that he has a 60% chance of improving on his 2019-2020 numbers, ~30% chance of staying at status quo, and ~10% chance of further regression and struggles.

Obviously, if he triggers that regression outcome, then he becomes a Felicio-type of liability until/unless he rehabilitates his game in subsequent seasons, the chances of which diminish after each successive year.

The thing is, right now I'm pretty sure there's an exec ready to throw $20mm at Lauri as soon as RFA opens next summer. Then the Bulls have to match or let him walk.

Sign him at $15mm/yr and I think he's a trade-able asset as soon as this year's deadline. You may not get much back for him but you'll get something, particularly if someone needs his skills to make a stretch run. You could also package him with OPJ to bring back a disgruntled star.

If Lauri were a 3rd year player like you said, I'd have more faith in his upside, but he's a 4th year player and statistics show that a minority of players improve much, if at all, after the 3rd season. That's why I'm against paying for upside in an extension, and would rather see how the market values him after next season. There are too many deficiencies in his game to assume he can fix most of them (average 3pt shooter, below average defender, below average rebounder, below average post scorer, below average half court ball handler). I'd feel better if he noted that he worked on any of these in the offseason in his presser, but all I heard is that he won't hide when he's missing shots like he did last year. Honestly, if he could get his 3pt% to 38% and improve his defense to average, I'd be good with $16M.

He was a third year player last season. He's going into his fourth year, and third coach in three years (Hoiberg was fired two years ago, almost to the day).

My take is, if Lauri even reverts to his 2018-2019 form, he's a $16mm player. If he does something between his rookie and sophomore years, he's even better (was a better non 3 scorer as a rook).

Last year he clearly regressed. Were he 33 years old, this would be a huge red flag, but as a 23 year old, I (and I suspect most of the league) expect him to bounce back at least to his previous production if not exceeding it.

So in Lauri's case, it's not just upside playing into his valuation, it's also past performance with a recent outlier year under a coach that, I think we can all agree, is a bonehead.

[fleet]

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Gold star for knowledge. Billy is on our level.

[ZOMG]

This billy conference is great. What he just talked about Lauri is spot on. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MISMATCH! DON'T JUST LAUNCH 3s!

For a 7 footer like Lauri - if you're guarded by a smaller guy on the perimeter, launching a 3 over him IS taking advantage of the mismatch. Not backing him down for 15 seconds like he's Barkley.

That's how the NBA is these days. Like it or not.

[kulaz3000]

From all the talk about defensive versatility they intend to use him as a defensive disrupted initially.