WestGOAT wrote:sansterre wrote:s0ciety wrote:
Would you mind sharing the way you compute Post-Season SRS?
My model seems to undervalue the Celtics compared to yours :Code: Select all
Season sansterre s0ciety Difference
1957 8.67 6.70 1.97
1958 8.69 6.14 2.55
1959 10.33 9.66 0.67
1960 9.28 8.03 1.25
1961 13.94 14.06 -0.12
1962 8.53 7.02 1.51
1963 5.57 4.10 1.47
1964 10.83 10.62 0.21
1965 8.78 7.63 1.15
1966 8.60 8.26 0.34
1967 2.40 1.90 0.50
1968 7.10 7.07 0.03
1969 9.14 7.75 1.39
Sorry man, I should have mentioned. I'm using a weird formula that updates regular season SRS as more data comes in. So a team that plays the '01 Lakers in the playoffs isn't credited with playing a decent regular season team, they're credited with playing a decent regular season team that turned into a juggernaut in the playoffs and so is somewhere between. It's a major component in my Top 100 Teams project (and the exact formula is in my master list post).
So your numbers are absolutely correct (I infer) if you're working off of only regular season SRS for establishing strength of schedule.
Out of curiosity, how do you both adjust for strength of schedule in the playoffs? Do you adjust margin-of-victory per game to the opponent's (regular-season vs post-season) SRS? What is the exact equation?
I know you use a factor 7 to weigh play-off games more heavily sansterre, but I was wondering how to do a regular SRS calculation. It seems a bit circular to me intuitively based on what I read from sports-reference:Everyone else's ratings just changed again, so we've got to run through the same procedure again. And again. And again. And eventually the numbers stop changing.
From: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index4837.html?p=37
I won't pretend to understand *at all* how regular season SRS is calculated.
I'm cheating and treating playoff SRS more like ELO. So two teams play each other, and as a result of the number of games / regular Season SRS / MoV a new SRS is generated for both teams. The team that advanced now uses this new SRS number for the calculation against the next team.
'16 Cavs (+5.5 SRS) face '16 Pistons (+0.4 SRS) and win by +8.5 ppg in 4: new SRS = +6.34
'16 Raptors (+4.1 SRS) face '16 Pacers (+1.6 SRS) and win by -1.4 ppg in 7: new SRS = +2.64
'16 Heat (+1.5 SRS) face '16 Hornets (+2.4 SRS) and win by +8.8 ppg in 7: new SRS = +5.11
'16 Hawks (+3.5 SRS) face '16 Celtics (+2.8 SRS) and win by +6.7 ppg in 6: new SRS = +5.54
'16 Cavs (+6.34 SRS) face '16 Hawks (+5.54 SRS) and win by +12.5 ppg in 4: new SRS = +8.71
'16 Raptors (+2.64 SRS) face '16 Heat (+5.11 SRS) and win by +2.5 ppg in 7: new SRS = +3.99
'16 Cavs (+8.71 SRS) face '16 Raptors (+3.99 SRS) and win by +15.5 ppg in 6: new SRS = +11.23
Hopefully the above demonstrates how each round you earn a new SRS, which is used in the calculation for the subsequent round. The upside, it's pretty easy to calculate. Downside, there's no retroactive credit - if you get smoked by a team that turned out to be awesome but hadn't shown it yet, you're penalized unfairly.