Capn'O wrote:B8RcDeMktfxC wrote:nyk2017 wrote:
We have drafted so many 18-19 year olds the past few years, that 22 seems old. But in reality, he should develop faster and hopefully by age 25 will warrant an extension and another extension by age 30 taking him to 35 years.
We did this less than two days ago.
aq_ua wrote:https://towardsdatascience.com/the-asset-of-age-e4b45599ea94
A sobering look at the correlation of age to production (PER) in the NBA.
Our roster is about 2 years younger than the league average, but not tracking to the overall league PER distribution (hence reflected in our record). The data really does point to the need to either keep accumulating opportunities to draft younger players and to go after players (in FA or trade) with higher PERs but in that mid-20s age range (yes, Randle had a 21 PER at age 24 so obviously not a perfect science).
It's crazy that the older players, while peaking lower, on average seem to play longer.
Just to jump in, though it's more a comment to the poster "dc" who stated "Well, Lillard was a 4 year guy who excelled, while Obi is 22 but only a 2 year college player"
How do I go about stating my thoughts here. Not sure, but to say the age thing and the two year thing can both be "pro Obi" and "Anti Obi" things, depending.
Do 22 year old players not fare as well as 19 year olds because, in drafts where you are allowed to draft 19 year olds, the 19/20 year olds with all the talent get scooped up and most often 3 and 4 year players, 21 and 22/23 years old, just aren't as talented - in general. That sounds true.
And if 22/23 year old guys generally are better late first round/early second, where their higher floor/lower ceiling sells better/ is more realistic, maybe those guys play a bit longer because they embrace being a role player sooner. Though, honestly, who knows.
So, what is Obi? Was he beating up on younger guys in college based on physical maturity and an extra year or two of basketball? Yes? No? Kind of in the middle? The extra years that Obi got - a year of prep school and reclassing somewhere along the way mean he reached a peak earlier in college? Conversely, Obi still only played 2 years in college/high level play\training, so is he really more like a sophmore entering the NBA. Or, again, kind of in the middle?
I think MAYBE because Obi had a little bit different path in recruiting/did prep school and wound up in college being a little older, on the one hand that helped physically. On the other hand, he's still a college sophmore, in terms of playing college ball. Even when guys played 4 years of college and came into the NBA, there was still a two year period of growing into being men, getting better training/diet/tips on their game/adjusting the the league. Even in the 4 and 3 year player drafts, guys were more coming into their own at 24/25 anyway. So, that means, to me, Obi still has physical upside to untap, though not as much as a 19 year old. He has basketball to untap, like other drafted sophmores, but maybe not quite as much. And like most rookies, it takes a few years no matter what. Good news is it might take quicker than 19 year olds, who minus a handful of guys at the very top of the class, seem to take 3 years anyway. So, Obi might adjust quicker after 1 season.
so in order to trade it had to be 2022 and 2024 picks. Subsequent years.
