Thunder design analysis

[jambalaya]

Maybe SGA runs the show from SG position.

[spearsy23]

Maybe SGA runs the show from SG position.

I think at this point that has to be the idea long term, with a guy like George hill filling in as a secondary handler and defending the other team's best guard. I think maledon could full that role.

Of course that could all change after the draft next year.

[ThunderBolt]

Maybe SGA runs the show from SG position.

I think at this point that has to be the idea long term, with a guy like George hill filling in as a secondary handler and defending the other team's best guard. I think maledon could full that role.

Of course that could all change after the draft next year.

Two combo guards isn’t a bad idea if we got a guy like Suggs.

[jambalaya]

Non- future core salaries are part of this season salary design and probably next season. Hopefully not for 22-23 and beyond but maybe depending on if Presti intends / can use trade / free agent markets for future oriented starters. All draft pick future core would require more years of non-future salaries, mediocre or worse.

Who might Presti pursue?

A first draft list:

Huerter
T Terry
Bol Bol
Paschall
Mason Jones
Sabonis
Zubac
Caruso
DiVencenzo
Nwora
Mays
Ntilikina
Jaxson Hayes
Spellman
Okeke
Korkmaz
Saric
Ramsey
Matt Thomas
Boucher
Bonga
A Gill
R Perry
Simonovic
Bolden
Konchar
Gabriel
Samanic

I generally avoided the very unlikely to obtain, though many of these are still unlikely. Perhaps some are feasible for fair compensation early or by aggressive bidding later.

[jambalaya]

My top targets in this group at this time would probably be:

T Terry
Mason Jones
Sabonis
Zubac
Caruso
DiVencenzo
Nwora
Mays
maybe Okeke
Ramsey
Matt Thomas
Boucher
R Perry
Simonovic

[jambalaya]

On raw team plus minus SGA-Dort was mildly positive (+3pts / 100p) but probably more because of other players now gone.

Dort - Bazley was Dort's second worst pair at -5 pts / 100p

SGA - Dort - Bazley was -49 points in 111 minutes of testing.

[jambalaya]

There is only 1 quad of any kind used over 40 minutes total season still possible and it is not worth naming or using since most 5 man versions of it are gone leaving tiny crumbs if any.

[jambalaya]

Made a rotation with current roster. Not enough minutes to keep guys happy. 10 plus guys are probably going to be frustrated. But chaotic line up management should help tank.

The minutes assumed:

Maledon 24 Hill 16 Jerome or other 8

SGA 32 Dort 16

Ariza 16 Diallo 16 Poku 16 (half SF, half PF) Miller 8

Jackson 8 Bazley 24 Williams 8

Horford 24 Leaf 8 Muscala 8 Brown 8

These are averages and minutes probably vary game to game some.

This is not exactly what I'd do. It is a guess at what they might do with some of my opinions mixed in.

You can do this with just 5 lineups. But they'll probably use 500 plus.

Hall got squeezed out but probably gets some burn after Ariza leaves. Same thing for Jackson and / or Randle if Hill leaves.

Yeah, you could completely cut out some more guys. I dunno if they'd do that this season or at least at start. We'll see.

Pretty much everybody has a back story for Presti to groove on and a mission for them & team.

[Thabo Sefolosha]

but is Maledon even guaranteed to come over this season?

[ThunderBolt]

but is Maledon even guaranteed to come over this season?

There have been several reports that he’s already in the states. He is waiting for the trade to be completed in December 8th.

[jambalaya]

IF the design is Maledon - SGA - Dort is Maledon or SGA the Chris Paul? Is Dort the Dort or Schroder or Roberson or Harden?

If Moses Brown was picked for possible fit with Bazley and / or Pokusevski, how long til we see it and how much?

Is TJ Leaf the new Muscala? Kenrich Williams the new Grant? Jackson the new... Diallo?

Is Josh Hall a future big SG in front of or behind Dort? Paired with SGA instead of Maledon or Krejci? Backup to Pokusevski?

[jambalaya]

Does Coach D have the best of the current dribble handoff plays in the playbook? Modified for guys or brand new? That is the kind of stuff they need. The junior management stuff only matters so much. SGA & Dort, SGA and Alexj.

Are Dort, Bazley, etc. ready and willing to regularly set picks? Is Poku ready to fake them & slip? Is M Brown ready to bang?

Which pairs are going to shine and why? Not obvious. SGA - Dort, Maledon- SGA, Maledon-Dort, SGA-Bazley, Bazley-Brown, Williams-Leaf, Pokusevski and anybody, etc.

Pace and space? Do it and show signs you can do it above average and defend the other side of it.

Shooting? Probably low, maybe very low. Is Coach delivering anything to improve that? Where are they going to rank on open / lightly contested shots? Cuts? How much are they going to pressure the D and get to line?

[jambalaya]

Dort currently 9th on Estimated Plus Minus.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

I still think he should have rolled dice and rejected Presti extension offer but the Thunder are the big beneficiary of that. Maybe Dort gets the time, role and stats to get the big 2nd contract though.

Of course things this early could look different in 3 days or 3 weeks.

[jambalaya]

2nd youngest minutes weighted team this year. Could be younger next season (or about the same).

[jambalaya]

For team, 2nd highest 3pta rate is new. Worst 3pt fg% is sorta new. 5th lowest assist rate is not new. Offensive rating is worst in league and currently worse than any offensive rating for season in 5 years.

[jambalaya]

SGA Dort Bazley together are -6.4 pts / 100 possessions in 285 minutes. The starting lineup with Hill and Horford has most of those minutes and has recently turned positive. But those vets probably won't be around long. All other lineups with that young trio are on average -13pts / 100p.

They'll need to fix that, have it fix itself or go away from it.

The trio super sucked last season in briefer test as noted shottly above.

What has worked amazing in brief test is SGA Dort without Bazley.

Detail: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612760&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628983,1629652,1629647


SGA without either is good, albeit in even briefer test.

Test all 3 more. But don't permanently lock into the trio together without major improvement.

[jambalaya]

Very few of the names I expressed interest in above were / are likely to be obtainable without an apparent overpay.

Korkmaz must be one of the easiest to get, if they want him. I don't immediately have an opinion, other than to guess Presti won't pursue / get. Same with Ntilikina. Skylar Mays? Bonga? They seem most obtainable. Not earth-shattering names but I'd check the prices / consider.

Recent and forthcoming wavers may be worth considering.

Go after bigger names if willing to pay the asking price.

[bbms]

SGA Dort Bazley together are -6.4 pts / 100 possessions in 285 minutes. The starting lineup with Hill and Horford has most of those minutes and has recently turned positive. But those vets probably won't be around long. All other lineups with that young trio are on average -13pts / 100p.

They'll need to fix that, have it fix itself or go away from it.

The trio super sucked last season in briefer test as noted shottly above.

What has worked amazing in brief test is SGA Dort without Bazley.

Detail: https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612760&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1628983,1629652,1629647


SGA without either is good, albeit in even briefer test.

Test all 3 more. But don't permanently lock into the trio together without major improvement.

When I look into a young player to evaluate, I usually look for elite traits. Doesn't matter much if a player has many flaws beyond the elite traits, I look for something that is already elite or at least very good so I can draw a line on what is the potential role of the player once he is fit into a winning rotation.

Unfortunately, I don't see any elite or very good traits on Bazley. I see an all-arounder that doesn't do anything all that well. At the moment I grade him below Roby (coming along as a decent rotation piece), K. Williams (very, very good defender), and even Pokusevski (who is worse at almost everything but has a single redeeming elite trait that he can develop on, which is weakside defense and shot-blocking to go along with his overall positive defensive impact).

[jambalaya]

At team level, the only elite factor is not fouling much.

They throw up a lot of 3ptas but are dead last at hitting them.

Athletes give them average shot defense and average defensive rebounding. But not getting them much in way of offensive rebounds, steals, blocks or ftas. These athletes also don't create assists beyond league basement level and are relatively poor on FT%.

The Coach apparently likes development and happy talk about it, but has any weakness noticeably improved or new strength emerged yet? I don't think so. It is early but is there even that much reason to hope for net team improvement between now and later in season? On what?

Generally it is the same old design. Few passers. Few shooters. Lots of young players with mediocre skills and weaknesses. Yes they are playing pretty fast and throwing up 3s but the offense so far is at the bottom end of league and bottom end of hopes. They compete but you can say that about at least 80% of teams.

Individual players have improved on some things but have stayed same on more. It just doesn't add up to much relatively. It is SGA as lone strong player, then 7 guys who are kinda ok and 7 guys who are weak or unproven.

Comparison against league: 4 above average on 3pt fg%, 10 below. The average team has 5.7 above league mean. 7 above league average on efg%. The average team has 6.5. 7 over average ts%. Average team 6.6. FTrate, Thunder 6, average team 6.7.

It may be that Thunder are light on top, average in middle and bad at depth at a lot of stats.

Thunder 4 over average on OR%. Average team 6.2. Thunder 6 over average on DR%. Average team 6.3.

More later.

Assist per 100 possessions, Thunder with 3 above mean. Average team 2.4. Steals, Thunder 4 above mean, average team, 4.3.

[jambalaya]

Luck adjusted RAPM estimates are out and Thunder have 3 in bottom 20. Bazley, 6th lowest and Maledon and Roby. Long climbs needed.

K Williams at 106 and second best on team behind G Hill. SGA at 209.

Pokusevski, 33rd best on LA-D-RAPM estimate right now. Small sample. Signal and / or noise.