RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 (Steve Nash)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#61 » by Dutchball97 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:01 pm

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Willis Reed? Just because he's a player from an older era gets to be isolated among that lot?
I'd suggest you to look up how well Reed performed against Russell, Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar and Unseld in '69 and '70 playoffs.

Also, in the latest peaks project which finished several months after Leonard's historic 2019 playoff run, Leonard was ranked at #27, Howard at #33 and Reed at #36. Not entirely world beating gap when the hype for him was at its peak, is it?


I suggest you take a step back. You do realize I have Elgin Baylor on my ballot, right? Now this suddenly turned into a thing that I value current players over older players. No, I value high peaks and primes over regular season longevity, which is why I have voted for some current players that lack longevity in the eyes of many here earlier than they would. Kawhi's 2019 run being only 27th in the peaks project only seems possible with a high emphasis on the regular season where Kawhi missed games. Looking strictly at his play-off performance he's top 15 and on the edge of the top 10 for me in terms of peak. Similar posters who dismiss Kawhi's performance now voting him much lower than I would doesn't prove or disprove the gap between the peaks of Kawhi and someone like Howard either.

I agree that we shouldn't act like we know the reasoning of each voter and I don't agree that Dutchball is biased against older players at all.

The thing is that Willis didn't lack anything in terms of postseason performance. You're acting like Reed didn't have any notable moments. In 7 series in a row Willis faced:

1967 Celtics with Bill Russell: 28/14/2 on 60 TS%
1968 Sixers with MVP Wilt: 21/10/2 on 58 TS%
1969 Bullets with MVP Unseld: 28/15/1 on 56 TS%
1969 Celtics with Russell: 24/14/2 on 56 TS%
1970 Bullets with Unseld: 21/18/3 on 47 TS%
1970 Bucks with Jabbar: 28/12/3 56 TS%
1970 Lakers with Wilt: 23/11/3 on 50 TS% (32/15/4 on 51 TS% before injury)

He faced absolutely brutal competition in these years and he played brilliantly in all-but one series. On top of that, he was elite defender - among the most underrated ever. He was excellent post defender (even if undersized), decent shotblocker and elite P&R defender - one of the best in the league.


I'm not trying to diminish Reed. In fact he's possibly the next center up for me ahead of Ewing and Gilmore. I just don't think he had quite the same level of single season post-season peak as Kawhi. I do agree he's a lot closer than Howard and Arizin are but I could've named a lot of guys on that list I didn't think were close to Kawhi's peak. I wasn't singling him out.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#62 » by Baski » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:06 pm

Well I guess the Kawhi discussion will start a bit early.
Dutchball97 wrote:I can understand it being a bit personal for you with the way Kawhi left the Spurs but I don't agree with his leadership being damaging.

Then you must not be aware of what he's done since he became a leader. This is what I can remember off the top of my head:

1. Ghost his team during rehab, on two separate occasions. It's almost absurd to imagine a grown man hiding behind a hotel room door when his longtime coach is on the other side, but that's Kawhi for you.
2. Smear his teams name as a means to garner sympathy for when he makes his trade request.
3. Demands trade and then tanks his value hard
4. Decides when to play with zero notice to his own team, also twice.
5. Makes highly problematic demands of his teams such as hiring family members, trading away the farm for PG, clearing out staff spaces so he can stretch by himself, away from his teammates. All 3 teams.
6. Constantly misses practices and delays team flights because of where he chooses to live and how he chooses to travel.
7. Through it all, is content maintaining radio silence no matter how beneficial his words would be or how damaging his silence ends up being.
There's more that some Raptors and Clippers fans can speak to, but this stuff is really out there as far as professional conduct, even in the NBA.

I know that most fans prefer to gloss over all this due to ignorance or some notion that winning cures all (except when it doesnt), but goodness gracious. Do people understand how diffcult it is to manage a player who won't even pick up your calls?

If anything, his style works well when he goes to teams with already established cultures like we saw first with the Spurs and then with the Raptors.

"His leadership style works well when he doesn't have to lead".
Which is part of the criticism that he's mainly succeeded on teams where many other players would succeed. When all you've ever had to do is score the ball and defend, it's much easier to put up great numbers and look like a killer. It's worth noting that the teams with well-established cultures you're referencing had the competence to refuse his more outrageous demands, and were punished for that by him leaving them. On a less than perfectly managed team that bent to his whims and depended on him to lead them, last year happened. A "mess", as you call it.
I honestly don't think even someone like LeBron would've been able to fix the Clippers last year in Kawhi's place.

Why not? He fixed the Cavs and the Lakers. The 2017 and 2018 Cavs were disappointing in the regular season in part because they were halfassing everything and having a lot of locker room issues. Come playoffs, they got serious and didn't let any chemistry issues show. Noone was making racist comments, asking to sit in the 4th quarters or cheapshotting opponent stars. There were no multi-game collapses to speak of. And unlike the 2020 Clippers, that 2018 Cavs team was actually a mess.
The Lakers players, like many others, didn't want to be in the bubble nor resume the season. LeBron was the one who kept them together and training during the break, got them motivated to keep their eyes on the prize when it resumed. Also, even before the lockdown, the Lakers had a fun chemistry that was palpable and a topic of discussion the whole season. Now there's always the chance that the Lakers just happened to be full of self-motivated go-getters that didn't need anyone to lead them, but it's way more likely that LeBron had a big hand in that.
Besides, are you ignoring Kawhi's role in "breaking" the Clippers? Seems like that's what you're doing by comparing others' ability to "fix" them. The 2019 Clippers weren't a mess. They became a mess after Kawhi joined with his laundry list of demands and unfamiliar schedule.

You can't expect every great player to be a vocal leader. Neither is Durant, I'd say Barkley also fits the bill.

Neither of them has demanded as much as Kawhi has demanded from their franchises. When you group all 3 under "non-vocal", you're not being fair at all. If the other two are not vocal, then Kawhi is silent. There's a big difference there. Durant will stick up for his former teammate even when he doesn't have to, while Kawhi remained silent during the whole Spurs saga, knowing full well that the longer it went on, the worse the team would look and the lesser leverage they'd have in trading him. This was seen as extremely bizarre as it was happening. Who even does that?
Durant may have broken up the Warriors by acting pissy and leaving, but at least noone was calling them a cult because of him.
There's also their comparatively fuller careers helping to offset their negatives, but that's beside the point.
The line about him being "outed" as a diva is exactly what I meant when I said people are letting personal bias impact their decision on him. Kawhi acting like a star player was unexpected with how his quite persona had been built up in the media but to call him the biggest diva of the last 3 years? I don't know man, I don't think that's it.

I'm sorry, but is there a better term than "outed"? The general narrative about him was that he was the humble terminator and so unlike the divas of the league, LeBron and KD. Now we know he's not only the same, but arguably worse. I dunno what else to use here, "exposed"? Whichever sounds less biased is fine with me, but the idea is the same.

About him being the biggest diva. The (incomplete) list of his actions since 2017 is up in this post. Who has had a collectively worse resume as a star within that time period than Kawhi?
Transgressions seems like a phrase that isn't connected to objectiviy, considering the kind of transgressions certain other players have made.

I dunno. I thought it sounded appropriate. Transgression means crossing a limit yes? But anway, you can replace it with "actions" and my point remains the same.

Re: This bias/personal/double standards thing-I think you're focusing on it way too much. Being a Spurs fan, I'm aware of how my posts will come off regarding Kawhi, so I mostly get it out of the way early, "Yeah he screwed us and I dislike him for that, but here's what I'm saying".. But you shouldn't take it as me saying "I don't like him so take everything I say with a grain of salt".
I'm trying my best to talk about him as like a neutral fan would, which is impossible for sure, but I think when you keep saying I'm taking it personally you sort of undermine my points. I won't pretend that I wasn't affected by what he did, but I'm trying to put forth the points as they are.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#63 » by Baski » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:18 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I do wonder why my "feeling out posts" about players garner such hostile responses. My personal annoyance with this is that I explicitly didn't take personality into account for other players I have a dislike for for different reasons (LeBron, KG, Karl Malone the most significant examples) but reading some of these responses I can't help but feel this doesn't happen across the board.


You definitely should take it into account. Sometimes an objectively worse player can have greater results than a better one due to how their teammates and management respond to them. Everyone weights it differently, but 0 as a weight is far too little.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#64 » by Dutchball97 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:23 pm

Baski wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I do wonder why my "feeling out posts" about players garner such hostile responses. My personal annoyance with this is that I explicitly didn't take personality into account for other players I have a dislike for for different reasons (LeBron, KG, Karl Malone the most significant examples) but reading some of these responses I can't help but feel this doesn't happen across the board.


You definitely should take it into account. Sometimes an objectively worse player can have greater results than a better one due to how their teammates and management respond to them. Everyone weights it differently, but 0 as a weight is far too little.


It's already calculated into the results though. I judge players on what they accomplished, so if their personality was detrimental to the team it'll reflect that in how the team performed. For example it makes little sense to penalize Shaq for being difficult to work with during the Lakers threepeat because they still won and that was mostly thanks to Shaq's on field performance.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#65 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:25 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:Outside of maybe 2020 I don't see how this applies to Kawhi and like I said I doubt even LeBron or MJ would've been able to fix the mess that was the Clippers last year.


Eh, so I'll say 2 things here:

1. I probably will have Kawhi as a serious contender in the 30s and would be inclined to put him above, say, Harden. The fact of the matter is that if I'm trying to win a championship, I'm considerably more confident in Kawhi than I am with Harden, and while that's not the entirety of the debate, it matters.

2. Kawhi WAS the mess with the Clippers last year. He went to a team with phenomenal chemistry and as a result of all of his demands to management that inconvenienced his teammates, along with his general not giving a damn about developing a culture, is what did this to the team.

Want to blame Paul George? Well look I'm not looking to defend PG one iota and I'll add that in some ways he was more the lightning rod than Kawhi. It's one thing for Kawhi to come in and to be treated special, it's another thing for him to essentially demand PG gets treated 1st class while all the guys who built the positive culture before are treated disposable.

So yeah man, Kawhi DID this to the Clippers and no one should pretend otherwise.

I'll add that I've been highly critical of LeBron for how he acted as a leader from 2014-2019, but his leadership in 2019-20 was highly adroit. Frankly I think LeBron clearly showed he understood the power of his leadership presence from his time in high school and so that 5 year blip was more about him just being irritated. He went back to the Cavs despite the fact that he wanted to see Dan Gilbert burn, and he treated Gilbert and his organization like they were dirt the entire time he was there the second time around. Then he came to LA and essentially chose not to get attached to the players who were already there. Chose not to be a good leader.

I'm not looking to ignore that, but in terms of capacity for leadership, when LeBron wants to, he's excellent at it.

Kawhi by contrast to this point seems to be an absolute void not just in terms of emotional quotient, but in terms of understanding the fundamental issue with putting yourself on a pedestal compared to your teammates. If you want them to confidently run through a wall for you with pride and a smile on your face, you have to work to earn that. I don't see any evidence in Kawhi's career to this point that he's understood that.

Maybe things will change in the future, but for now, I think it's important not to pretend the Clippers had locker room problems before Kawhi. It was his arrival along with PG that made the problem, not anything else.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#66 » by Odinn21 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:34 pm

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Willis Reed? Just because he's a player from an older era gets to be isolated among that lot?
I'd suggest you to look up how well Reed performed against Russell, Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar and Unseld in '69 and '70 playoffs.

Also, in the latest peaks project which finished several months after Leonard's historic 2019 playoff run, Leonard was ranked at #27, Howard at #33 and Reed at #36. Not entirely world beating gap when the hype for him was at its peak, is it?


I suggest you take a step back. You do realize I have Elgin Baylor on my ballot, right? Now this suddenly turned into a thing that I value current players over older players. No, I value high peaks and primes over regular season longevity, which is why I have voted for some current players that lack longevity in the eyes of many here earlier than they would. Kawhi's 2019 run being only 27th in the peaks project only seems possible with a high emphasis on the regular season where Kawhi missed games. Looking strictly at his play-off performance he's top 15 and on the edge of the top 10 for me in terms of peak. Similar posters who dismiss Kawhi's performance now voting him much lower than I would doesn't prove or disprove the gap between the peaks of Kawhi and someone like Howard either.

I agree that we shouldn't act like we know the reasoning of each voter and I don't agree that Dutchball is biased against older players at all.

Maybe this will clear up...

I didn't suggest that Dutchball97 has a bias against the older players. I talked like that because I think he lacked some info on Reed's performance in the '60s. That was an issue of info available due to the era. I don't think someone would single out Willis Reed against Kawhi Leonard for peak if they'd know sufficient enough about Reed's performance, especially against the very top Cs ever.
If you are aware, I mentioned Reed in my post and not Arizin, right?

Mentioning Baylor is mute BTW. Again, it's about the info available and how much we have personally. It'd be bizarre if someone knew much about Nowitzki but not so much about Garnett. But with the '60s, it's not like that. It is not given.

Also, this is not the first time accusation about emotions flew over. If there's a consistency with the process, it could be mentioned without accusations. I don't think there has been a single person in this project went "these are close, but I love this player and I hate that one and I'll vote for the one I love" in his votes.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#67 » by 70sFan » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:34 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
I suggest you take a step back. You do realize I have Elgin Baylor on my ballot, right? Now this suddenly turned into a thing that I value current players over older players. No, I value high peaks and primes over regular season longevity, which is why I have voted for some current players that lack longevity in the eyes of many here earlier than they would. Kawhi's 2019 run being only 27th in the peaks project only seems possible with a high emphasis on the regular season where Kawhi missed games. Looking strictly at his play-off performance he's top 15 and on the edge of the top 10 for me in terms of peak. Similar posters who dismiss Kawhi's performance now voting him much lower than I would doesn't prove or disprove the gap between the peaks of Kawhi and someone like Howard either.

I agree that we shouldn't act like we know the reasoning of each voter and I don't agree that Dutchball is biased against older players at all.

The thing is that Willis didn't lack anything in terms of postseason performance. You're acting like Reed didn't have any notable moments. In 7 series in a row Willis faced:

1967 Celtics with Bill Russell: 28/14/2 on 60 TS%
1968 Sixers with MVP Wilt: 21/10/2 on 58 TS%
1969 Bullets with MVP Unseld: 28/15/1 on 56 TS%
1969 Celtics with Russell: 24/14/2 on 56 TS%
1970 Bullets with Unseld: 21/18/3 on 47 TS%
1970 Bucks with Jabbar: 28/12/3 56 TS%
1970 Lakers with Wilt: 23/11/3 on 50 TS% (32/15/4 on 51 TS% before injury)

He faced absolutely brutal competition in these years and he played brilliantly in all-but one series. On top of that, he was elite defender - among the most underrated ever. He was excellent post defender (even if undersized), decent shotblocker and elite P&R defender - one of the best in the league.


I'm not trying to diminish Reed. In fact he's possibly the next center up for me ahead of Ewing and Gilmore. I just don't think he had quite the same level of single season post-season peak as Kawhi. I do agree he's a lot closer than Howard and Arizin are but I could've named a lot of guys on that list I didn't think were close to Kawhi's peak. I wasn't singling him out.

That's your opinion and you're free to think that way. Personally, I'd probably take peak Reed over peak Kawhi and he had comparable career overall.

You seem to value volume scoring a lot, which is fair but it doesn't mean that others can't prefer other things. Reed being much better defender while being excellent volume scorer himself makes me pick him over Kawhi.

If we're talking about peaks, then 1990 Ewing is in comparable situation. Same with Davis. Dwight and Gilmore were not high volume scorers, but they were monster defenders and rebounders with absurdly high efficiency. Walton is all-time great a this peak and I don't see any reason to equal Kawhi's impact to his. You can laugh at Arizin mention, but he peaked very high, he was by far the best scorer in the league until Pettit reached his prime. Then you have Barry and Nash who were far better playmakers and Frazier/Baylor who were all-around superstars without any notable weaknesses. McAdoo and Harden were arguably better scorers as well.

I wouldn't vote for either one inside top 40 and I'm a fan of both by the way.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#68 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:52 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:Elvin Hayes did not peak "very high" and he was an inefficient volume scorer who varied between poor to great defensively.

There are one or two people considering Kawhi--and those people value current players highly.


I generally think of Hayes as considerably more positive than that on defense, but I did want to echo what you expressed about his scoring.

Simply put, I don't consider Hayes scoring a positive.

In general, I think the right way to be effective at basketball is to run your scoring attack through perimeter-capable players 99% of the time, and when it's not the case, it either means 1) the big was astonishingly efficient in his scoring and/or 2) the big was an incredible passer.

Hayes was neither of these things. His offensive approach should have been something entirely different his entire career, and I struggle to make any case for him at all in the Top 50.

Highly knowledgeable basketball posters with more first hand experience disagree with me on this so I'm not claiming reasonable people cannot disagree, but I do think they tend to look at it more in terms of "Well someone had to be the go-to-scoring thread on the roster, and there were great teams where Hayes was that guy and it worked well enough". And I'd tend to respond: "And they'd get slaughtered against a more strategically mature league". You don't win championships with Hayes as your lead scorer today, period, and not because of the 3 per se so much as teams are used to actually examining what really works and what doesn't, and Hayes volume scoring doesn't.

All this pertains to why I'm way higher on, say, Wes Unseld than I am on Hayes. I'd love to have Unseld on my team in any era, Hayes? Not the way he was playing.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#69 » by trex_8063 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:53 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I'm the only one who has even mentioned Kawhi as up for consideration so far so I'd like to ask people in what range they're thinking of voting for him.


I'll need to think harder on exactly where I want to place him at present (still in process of updating my extended list since the end of this season). Ultimately it likely won't matter for the purposes of this project. As is no doubt apparent already: I'm pretty consistently on the one side of the spectrum that will overrate [relative to the forum average] longevity giants, and underrate [relative to the forum average] those players with short careers/primes and/or durability issues.
As such, I'm certain Kawhi will already be voted in long before I ever lend him my vote.

Off-the-cuff, I think he probably lands somewhere in the mid or mid-late 40's for me at this point.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#70 » by penbeast0 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 5:54 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:...


I let this slide the first time but . . . you are calling Charles Barkley "non-vocal?" :cheesygrin:

I realize you were actually calling him a non-leader (or negative leader if you read Jayson Williams's book) but that just struck me as funny.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#71 » by Dutchball97 » Mon Dec 7, 2020 6:01 pm

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:I agree that we shouldn't act like we know the reasoning of each voter and I don't agree that Dutchball is biased against older players at all.

The thing is that Willis didn't lack anything in terms of postseason performance. You're acting like Reed didn't have any notable moments. In 7 series in a row Willis faced:

1967 Celtics with Bill Russell: 28/14/2 on 60 TS%
1968 Sixers with MVP Wilt: 21/10/2 on 58 TS%
1969 Bullets with MVP Unseld: 28/15/1 on 56 TS%
1969 Celtics with Russell: 24/14/2 on 56 TS%
1970 Bullets with Unseld: 21/18/3 on 47 TS%
1970 Bucks with Jabbar: 28/12/3 56 TS%
1970 Lakers with Wilt: 23/11/3 on 50 TS% (32/15/4 on 51 TS% before injury)

He faced absolutely brutal competition in these years and he played brilliantly in all-but one series. On top of that, he was elite defender - among the most underrated ever. He was excellent post defender (even if undersized), decent shotblocker and elite P&R defender - one of the best in the league.


I'm not trying to diminish Reed. In fact he's possibly the next center up for me ahead of Ewing and Gilmore. I just don't think he had quite the same level of single season post-season peak as Kawhi. I do agree he's a lot closer than Howard and Arizin are but I could've named a lot of guys on that list I didn't think were close to Kawhi's peak. I wasn't singling him out.

That's your opinion and you're free to think that way. Personally, I'd probably take peak Reed over peak Kawhi and he had comparable career overall.

You seem to value volume scoring a lot, which is fair but it doesn't mean that others can't prefer other things. Reed being much better defender while being excellent volume scorer himself makes me pick him over Kawhi.

If we're talking about peaks, then 1990 Ewing is in comparable situation. Same with Davis. Dwight and Gilmore were not high volume scorers, but they were monster defenders and rebounders with absurdly high efficiency. Walton is all-time great a this peak and I don't see any reason to equal Kawhi's impact to his. You can laugh at Arizin mention, but he peaked very high, he was by far the best scorer in the league until Pettit reached his prime. Then you have Barry and Nash who were far better playmakers and Frazier/Baylor who were all-around superstars without any notable weaknesses. McAdoo and Harden were arguably better scorers as well.

I wouldn't vote for either one inside top 40 and I'm a fan of both by the way.


I appreciate your level headed input here but if this was just about volume scoring I'd go with Harden instead. I guess volume scoring is a big part of boxscore stats so that could explain the correlation.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#72 » by 70sFan » Mon Dec 7, 2020 6:04 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Highly knowledgeable basketball posters with more first hand experience disagree with me on this so I'm not claiming reasonable people cannot disagree, but I do think they tend to look at it more in terms of "Well someone had to be the go-to-scoring thread on the roster, and there were great teams where Hayes was that guy and it worked well enough". And I'd tend to respond: "And they'd get slaughtered against a more strategically mature league". You don't win championships with Hayes as your lead scorer today, period, and not because of the 3 per se so much as teams are used to actually examining what really works and what doesn't, and Hayes volume scoring doesn't.


I don't think Hayes success was caused by lack of strategical maturity of the league in the 1970s. Bullets teams were usually bad or mediocre offensively, outside of one season in 1979 when Dandridge was clearly more important offensive player than Hayes. Washington had been good because they were very good defensively and they weren't terrible on offense. They had usually decent offensive talent, a talent often underused because of Hayes huge ego.

Hayes claim of greatness is strictly related to defense and rebounding, he just wasn't a good scorer for most of his career. That's why Bullets kept losing in playoffs and that's why they won the title in one year when Hayes actually scored on decent efficiency and he wasn't very high volume by then.

So in short - you won't win the title with Hayes as a volume scorer in any era, unless you have elite defense and good offensive players who masked some of his weaknesses.

I agree that he's not worthy consideration unless you are very high on longevity, because his longevity is fantastic. It's not because he wouldn't translate to other eras though, it's because what he did wasn't good enough in his own era. With lower ego, he could have been a superstar because he had all the tools, but he was know as a selfish man who didn't listen his coaches even in college.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#73 » by 70sFan » Mon Dec 7, 2020 6:07 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
I'm not trying to diminish Reed. In fact he's possibly the next center up for me ahead of Ewing and Gilmore. I just don't think he had quite the same level of single season post-season peak as Kawhi. I do agree he's a lot closer than Howard and Arizin are but I could've named a lot of guys on that list I didn't think were close to Kawhi's peak. I wasn't singling him out.

That's your opinion and you're free to think that way. Personally, I'd probably take peak Reed over peak Kawhi and he had comparable career overall.

You seem to value volume scoring a lot, which is fair but it doesn't mean that others can't prefer other things. Reed being much better defender while being excellent volume scorer himself makes me pick him over Kawhi.

If we're talking about peaks, then 1990 Ewing is in comparable situation. Same with Davis. Dwight and Gilmore were not high volume scorers, but they were monster defenders and rebounders with absurdly high efficiency. Walton is all-time great a this peak and I don't see any reason to equal Kawhi's impact to his. You can laugh at Arizin mention, but he peaked very high, he was by far the best scorer in the league until Pettit reached his prime. Then you have Barry and Nash who were far better playmakers and Frazier/Baylor who were all-around superstars without any notable weaknesses. McAdoo and Harden were arguably better scorers as well.

I wouldn't vote for either one inside top 40 and I'm a fan of both by the way.


I appreciate your level headed input here but if this was just about volume scoring I'd go with Harden instead. I guess volume scoring is a big part of boxscore stats so that could explain the correlation.

Sure, I never said that you're all about volume scoring but it's not far from truth that you value it a lot more than me. I would definitely take someone like Bill Walton over Kawhi and I know you probably wouldn't.

That's why we have projects like this, to make a consensus list that gives us a nice mixture of different criteria.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#74 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 7, 2020 7:09 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
Baski wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I do wonder why my "feeling out posts" about players garner such hostile responses. My personal annoyance with this is that I explicitly didn't take personality into account for other players I have a dislike for for different reasons (LeBron, KG, Karl Malone the most significant examples) but reading some of these responses I can't help but feel this doesn't happen across the board.


You definitely should take it into account. Sometimes an objectively worse player can have greater results than a better one due to how their teammates and management respond to them. Everyone weights it differently, but 0 as a weight is far too little.


It's already calculated into the results though. I judge players on what they accomplished, so if their personality was detrimental to the team it'll reflect that in how the team performed. For example it makes little sense to penalize Shaq for being difficult to work with during the Lakers threepeat because they still won and that was mostly thanks to Shaq's on field performance.


This is a good area for philosophical discussion and I'll say up front that I don't expect everyone's thoughts to align with mine, but my 2 cents:

I consider Shaq the POY for those 3 championship seasons, and had that continued indefinitely, then I would consider his attitude largely moot. But it did not continue.

I saw enough with Shaq to conclude that his laziness and hissy fits were something indicating a build up of emotion, and his expression did not function as "venting" in the sense of releasing what he needed to release in order to come back at his best. Rather, they were a sign that he was a ticking bomb getting close to going off and forcing a divorce between the franchise and the player.

And this is something I think really should be considered by any team builder. How can I expect natural arc of Shaq to go with time. Is he someone I can expect to stay with my franchise and build a positive culture in the long term? No. He's someone who I'm hoping to have stay positive long enough that I can have him at his best while we're a contender, but if we struggle he's going to be temperamental, and even if we win, he's going to over time build up resentments toward those around him.

Hopefully it's clear to everyone, whether their method of assessment includes this or not, that you most definitely cannot get a sense of the subtle unsustainable effects a player is having on a team simply by looking at the team's record, and thus it isn't truly calculated into the results unless you take a more simplistic approach to "results" than a NBA GM would want to.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#75 » by GQ Hot Dog » Mon Dec 7, 2020 7:21 pm

3 assists per game over his career is not enough reason to elevate Chris Paul over Steph Curry. I can't think of a single other reason to elevate CP3 over Curry.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#76 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Dec 7, 2020 8:01 pm

1. D Wade
2. Steve Nash
3. Anthony Davis


I'm voting for D Wade here. I think he has the most impressive peak left, and he has also the best run left. 2006 was special, that ECF and NBA finals were out of this world. Basically, even with a bit less longevity than Nash, Wade did what Nash failed to do with such run. He absolutely killed it in 06.

He also has better RS than Nash, in my view, in both 09 and 10. He was a complete player, really great.

Wade also adds value with his seasons as a 2nd option. Epic 11 finals series, really great player in 12 and even in 13 he was a big part of that Heat team that almost beat the consecutive wins record.

In the playoffs Wade dropped the ball in 14, but let's not forget that his great performance in G4 of the 13 finals (along with James) was what kept the Heat alive on the road. Without that performance, probably the Heat lose the 13 finals.

Steve Nash comes close for me, but the greatest Wade playoff performances give him the nod here. I understand anyone who sees different.

I'm still wondering about Harden and AD vs Walt Frazier. They might have a case here. Probably gonna spend a bit of time looking into that. Voting for AD here but I might change my vote. I think Frazier and Harden lose clearly on one end of the game to AD, so that might be what decides it for me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#77 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Dec 7, 2020 8:03 pm

GQ Hot Dog wrote:3 assists per game over his career is not enough reason to elevate Chris Paul over Steph Curry. I can't think of a single other reason to elevate CP3 over Curry.


That is over now. While I personally voted for Curry earlier than I voted for CP3, longevity brings a case for CP3, as much as elevating teams with meh supporting casts. His last year with OKC who everyone felt was out of the playoffs makes him look even greater longevity wise. Dude was a beast and he made OKC a dangerous team.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#78 » by Joao Saraiva » Mon Dec 7, 2020 8:08 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I'm the only one who has even mentioned Kawhi as up for consideration so far so I'd like to ask people in what range they're thinking of voting for him.


I'll need to think harder on exactly where I want to place him at present (still in process of updating my extended list since the end of this season). Ultimately it likely won't matter for the purposes of this project. As is no doubt apparent already: I'm pretty consistently on the one side of the spectrum that will overrate [relative to the forum average] longevity giants, and underrate [relative to the forum average] those players with short careers/primes and/or durability issues.
As such, I'm certain Kawhi will already be voted in long before I ever lend him my vote.

Off-the-cuff, I think he probably lands somewhere in the mid or mid-late 40's for me at this point.


Well I'm thinking about Kawih in the early 30s. I have an issue with his longevity and missed year, load management... and he just has 2 regular seasons among true MVP contenders. Doesn't look that impressive to me as Nash, Barkley, AD or Harden for me. I'd also give Frazier some consideration before Kawih. After that... I think he and Giannis will discuss the next spots, but Kawih has showed me something in the playoffs that Giannis is left to show.

I'm also high on Adrian Dantley, so he might come right after this bunch. I think him being ringless underrates him.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#79 » by GQ Hot Dog » Mon Dec 7, 2020 8:17 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:
GQ Hot Dog wrote:3 assists per game over his career is not enough reason to elevate Chris Paul over Steph Curry. I can't think of a single other reason to elevate CP3 over Curry.


That is over now. While I personally voted for Curry earlier than I voted for CP3, longevity brings a case for CP3, as much as elevating teams with meh supporting casts. His last year with OKC who everyone felt was out of the playoffs makes him look even greater longevity wise. Dude was a beast and he made OKC a dangerous team.


I'm guessing Curry will be overtaking him in the 2021 Top 100.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #27 

Post#80 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 7, 2020 8:29 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:I'm voting for D Wade here. I think he has the most impressive peak left, and he has also the best run left. 2006 was special, that ECF and NBA finals were out of this world. Basically, even with a bit less longevity than Nash, Wade did what Nash failed to do with such run. He absolutely killed it in 06.


I do understand that perspective, but I think it's important to remember that Wade was not leading an unstoppable offense when he did this. The team won with defense.

Wade's legend truly got established with those 2006 finals against Dallas.

In those finals, Miami had an ORtg of 101.0.

To use simple estimates, given that Dallas had a regular season DRtg of 105.0. That means Miami's performance in that series was a -4.0 rORtg, which means they underperformed by 6.5 points per 100 possessions against Dallas.

By contrast, the Suns in the previous round had an ORtg of 111.5, which gives them a +6.5 rORtg which was BETTER than what you'd expect from the regular season, despite the fact that the Suns were not playing at full strength in the playoffs due to injuries.

And of course, that doesn't factor in that the Suns were missing Amar'e that year.

So no, Wade was not succeeding in any way that could be seen as succeeding where Nash failed unless you're just doing RINGZ.

I'll further add that people tend to really lionize Wade's performance in the 2010 playoffs against Boston where he personally put up big numbers while his team put up a putrid ORtg. This is the trend of Wade. He puts up numbers, his team's offenses are meh.

To be clear, I do think Wade is a better floor raiser than Nash. I think Wade's at his best when you just tell him to go score and you try to use the rest of the lineup to win with defense, which is of course how they won the 2006 title.

Dallas in the '06 finals had an ORtg of 99.9. which was 11.9 below their regular season average. Anyone who wants to understand how Miami beat Dallas should be focused on Miami's defense not their offense. And the fact that the team had the ability at all times to have either Shaq or Zo on the floor is really a freakish thing.

But yeah, if I'm looking to build a team that will have an elite offense, Wade's pretty low on my list.
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