Woj - Westbrook for Wall and 1st Rounder

[payitforward]

Maybe the PPA system just overvalues FT shooting, but '10 and '11 (which is the year I thought you were comparing to '07) show marked declines not only in scoring average but also in TS% and in FT attempts and percentage....

??? First off, those are not a bunch of different things, they are essentially one thing. & they are represented by his TS%, which was down by just over one percentage point in year 10 compared to year 7. Big deal.

OTOH, other things are better in 10 than in 7. Overall, his productivity looks higher in 10 than in 7. No surprise in that he went up in 8 & 9. As to TS% -- last year it was back up & so were his points. Nonetheless, last year was far worse than any of the preceding years all the way back to 2011-12, his 4th year in the league.

Again, at a glance, the original comparison in the chart between 2007 and 2010 or 2011 doesn't seem unreasonable, even factoring in the numbers you've cited....

Not sure what you mean by "at a glance" or "factoring in." Or even "unreasonable." Overall, the numbers themselves are better not worse. Period.

I don't dismiss out of hand the effect playing with Harden might have had on Westbrook, but there might have been other less situation-specific factors as well. Like his age. I hope he can at least return to the level of 2017-2019, but I'm not penciling that in just yet.

I don't know any more than you how well he'll play this year -- goes without saying. He might be great, he might be awful. But there's nothing in what he did last year that tells me his skills or athleticism have declined at all. What they tell me is that he was in a position where he had to play a different game from his usual way to play.

All that said, there's no dispute to have about this year -- it ain't happened yet! & I'm sure we hope for the same thing.

Westbrook's best years were his 8th & 9th years. I can't imagine him getting back to that level! But, declining from that kind of play has no bearing on the likelihood that he'll have the best year of any Washington PG for many many years!

Care to compare Playoffs stats? Funny to only bring up the regular season when Playoffs are more important. There are very few point guards that ever got to the level of Wall in those last 2 playoffs he played. It was truly mesmerizing.

27 and 10 and 27 and 11 on 45% then 44% FG. I am not sure Chris Paul ever had a peak this high. Westbrook has shot well under 40% since 2016 and the past 2 playoffs averaged less points.

My argument isn’t that he’ll be worse than Wall, it’s just that you’re saying he’ll have a better year than any Wizards point guard in many years. Did you forget those magical Wall playoffs? Specifically that 2017 playoffs is not an easy bar to reach for any point guard.

If it seemed to you that I was saying that, my bad. I lost my crystal ball many moons ago, so I am unable to report on Westbrook's future, Wall's future, or even... my own!

What I meant was that he could put up a season with a decline from his years 8 & 9 -- & still have "the best year of any Washington PG for many many years."

Hey, if you want to view John Wall as a better NBA player than Russell Westbrook, or even to compare John favorably over Chris Paul, who is possibly the best PG in the history of basketball & certainly the best player pound for pound in the history of the NBA, why, nothing I say is likely to change that view -- & anyway why would I want to change it? You're entitled to any view you like, & we all have favorites.

[payitforward]

...I respect (Russell's) work ethic, but what skills has he added / improved since coming into the league?

Some players make modest improvements to their game, but significant improvements to their body. KD added some post moves and a tightened handle, but the biggest thing he added was strength. Ditto Curry.

Other players add skills they simply didn't have before. LeBron add 3-point range. Beal added shiftiness and wiggle to his drives.

I don't remember early Russ well enough to know what his hard work has produced. He came in with an NBA-ready body, so what did he add?

Wow.... how about doubling his rebounds? How about raising his assists @40%? Westbrook was a good player his first 5 years. By his 8th & 9th years he was one of the absolutely best players in the league.

You're certainly right that some of his stats took a jump. But you've listed output, not skills. Can we attribute Westbrook's increased output to new skills he developed along the way vs, say, changes in scheme, role, or roster -- or, more vaguely, to experience or improved feel (e.g., over time, many players say the game "slows down for them")?

Rebounding in particular is often described as more instinct and desire than anything else. Of course, there are certainly skills that can be honed. Did Westbrook improve his boxing out technique, due to off-season drills? Did he study film to better understand how specific shooters miss, to improve his anticipation and reduce his reaction time?

Re: assists: was this due to a tightened up handle? What skills do guards develop to improve in that regard?

It's great that he has a reputation for being a hard worker, and it's great that his stats have improved. I'd like to better understand the causal link between the two. If we think he has a demonstrated ability to add skills over time, that probably bodes well for the latter half of his career, as he may be able to better adjust to a decline in athleticism. If his improvement was mostly attributable to increased usage, changes in scheme, etc., then it might be harder to project an improvement in his aptitude for skills development this late in his career.

Since I didn't follow Westbrook closely, I don't know the answer. However, I'm a bit concerned by the regression of his 3 point shot. I'm struggling to think of any superstars who trend that way. Duncan's FT% regressed over time, if memory serves, but that regression happened earlier in his career. At a lower star wattage, Draymond's 3 has regressed. Many other stars improve their 3PT%. So, some counter examples of Russ's skills building would be helpful. Another poster cited his new post up game; that's a start.

Fair clarification, thanks. Like you, I have never followed Westbrook closely, thus I can't provide the kind of analysis you ask about. Plus, to tell the truth, it wouldn't interest me all that much to try to do it now. Certainly not the way it interests me to watch that kind of development among our young players.

Really, the only reason for a questioning discussion about Westbrook now & going forward is his one season in Houston, which was at a much lower level of player overall than any since very early in his career.

Everything I've written about Russ was in reference to that question. From my pov, it's obvious that an extraordinarily bad fit with Harden, another ball-dominant guard, suffices to explain the year he had -- & explains it much better than the idea that he fell off a cliff as a player. Of course, I might be altogether wrong. We'll see.

[closg00]

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[Meliorus]

??? First off, those are not a bunch of different things, they are essentially one thing. & they are represented by his TS%, which was down by just over one percentage point in year 10 compared to year 7. Big deal.

OTOH, other things are better in 10 than in 7. Overall, his productivity looks higher in 10 than in 7. No surprise in that he went up in 8 & 9. As to TS% -- last year it was back up & so were his points. Nonetheless, last year was far worse than any of the preceding years all the way back to 2011-12, his 4th year in the league.


Not sure what you mean by "at a glance" or "factoring in." Or even "unreasonable." Overall, the numbers themselves are better not worse. Period.


I don't know any more than you how well he'll play this year -- goes without saying. He might be great, he might be awful. But there's nothing in what he did last year that tells me his skills or athleticism have declined at all. What they tell me is that he was in a position where he had to play a different game from his usual way to play.

All that said, there's no dispute to have about this year -- it ain't happened yet! & I'm sure we hope for the same thing.

Westbrook's best years were his 8th & 9th years. I can't imagine him getting back to that level! But, declining from that kind of play has no bearing on the likelihood that he'll have the best year of any Washington PG for many many years!

Care to compare Playoffs stats? Funny to only bring up the regular season when Playoffs are more important. There are very few point guards that ever got to the level of Wall in those last 2 playoffs he played. It was truly mesmerizing.

27 and 10 and 27 and 11 on 45% then 44% FG. I am not sure Chris Paul ever had a peak this high. Westbrook has shot well under 40% since 2016 and the past 2 playoffs averaged less points.

My argument isn’t that he’ll be worse than Wall, it’s just that you’re saying he’ll have a better year than any Wizards point guard in many years. Did you forget those magical Wall playoffs? Specifically that 2017 playoffs is not an easy bar to reach for any point guard.

If it seemed to you that I was saying that, my bad. I lost my crystal ball many moons ago, so I am unable to report on Westbrook's future, Wall's future, or even... my own!

What I meant was that he could put up a season with a decline from his years 8 & 9 -- & still have "the best year of any Washington PG for many many years."

Hey, if you want to view John Wall as a better NBA player than Russell Westbrook, or even to compare John favorably over Chris Paul, who is possibly the best PG in the history of basketball & certainly the best player pound for pound in the history of the NBA, why, nothing I say is likely to change that view -- & anyway why would I want to change it? You're entitled to any view you like, & we all have favorites.

It's just weird that you overlooked his rather incredible 2017 postseason, and yes, that post season was a lot better than lots of Chris Paul post seasons, maybe almost all of them. Why is that a surprise? The gap between good players is not a mountain. Chris Paul lost by 58 points in a 2009 playoff game.

I don't want to say Wall is a better player than Westbrook, he's not. But that 2017 playoffs was historic and better than most of Westbrook's post seasons. It's more of a testament to Wall than a shot at Westbrook (who never got his team out of the 1st round without Durant). I wish more people on here would give Wall credit for his peaks, which were special.

[DCZards]

It's just weird that you overlooked his rather incredible 2017 postseason, and yes, that post season was a lot better than lots of Chris Paul post seasons, maybe almost all of them. Why is that a surprise? The gap between good players is not a mountain. Chris Paul lost by 58 points in a 2009 playoff game.

I don't want to say Wall is a better player than Westbrook, he's not. But that 2017 playoffs was historic and better than most of Westbrook's post seasons. It's more of a testament to Wall than a shot at Westbrook (who never got his team out of the 1st round without Durant). I wish more people on here would give Wall credit for his peaks, which were special.

John should no doubt get props for that epic postseason. Watching him almost single-handedly take out Atlanta in that sixth game in ATL remains one of my favorite NBA memories.

But it's also noteworthy that in 12 NBA seasons Westbrook has only failed to make the playoffs twice...and one time was his rookie season. And that's in the more competitive Western Conf.

[Shanghai Kid]

Care to compare Playoffs stats? Funny to only bring up the regular season when Playoffs are more important. There are very few point guards that ever got to the level of Wall in those last 2 playoffs he played. It was truly mesmerizing.

27 and 10 and 27 and 11 on 45% then 44% FG. I am not sure Chris Paul ever had a peak this high. Westbrook has shot well under 40% since 2016 and the past 2 playoffs averaged less points.

My argument isn’t that he’ll be worse than Wall, it’s just that you’re saying he’ll have a better year than any Wizards point guard in many years. Did you forget those magical Wall playoffs? Specifically that 2017 playoffs is not an easy bar to reach for any point guard.

If it seemed to you that I was saying that, my bad. I lost my crystal ball many moons ago, so I am unable to report on Westbrook's future, Wall's future, or even... my own!

What I meant was that he could put up a season with a decline from his years 8 & 9 -- & still have "the best year of any Washington PG for many many years."

Hey, if you want to view John Wall as a better NBA player than Russell Westbrook, or even to compare John favorably over Chris Paul, who is possibly the best PG in the history of basketball & certainly the best player pound for pound in the history of the NBA, why, nothing I say is likely to change that view -- & anyway why would I want to change it? You're entitled to any view you like, & we all have favorites.

It's just weird that you overlooked his rather incredible 2017 postseason, and yes, that post season was a lot better than lots of Chris Paul post seasons, maybe almost all of them. Why is that a surprise? The gap between good players is not a mountain. Chris Paul lost by 58 points in a 2009 playoff game.

I don't want to say Wall is a better player than Westbrook, he's not. But that 2017 playoffs was historic and better than most of Westbrook's post seasons. It's more of a testament to Wall than a shot at Westbrook (who never got his team out of the 1st round without Durant). I wish more people on here would give Wall credit for his peaks, which were special.

Honestly, Wall was fantastic in the 2018 playoffs also. Overall, he's averaging 26/10 over his last 19 playoff games, with 3 40 point games in there and even his impact stats for those playoffs are pretty good.

Wall has basically become chop liver in everyones minds, but he did seem to become someone who was going to show up in a big way for the the playoffs (minus the game 7 against boston where he seemed to tire out)

[Meliorus]

If it seemed to you that I was saying that, my bad. I lost my crystal ball many moons ago, so I am unable to report on Westbrook's future, Wall's future, or even... my own!

What I meant was that he could put up a season with a decline from his years 8 & 9 -- & still have "the best year of any Washington PG for many many years."

Hey, if you want to view John Wall as a better NBA player than Russell Westbrook, or even to compare John favorably over Chris Paul, who is possibly the best PG in the history of basketball & certainly the best player pound for pound in the history of the NBA, why, nothing I say is likely to change that view -- & anyway why would I want to change it? You're entitled to any view you like, & we all have favorites.

It's just weird that you overlooked his rather incredible 2017 postseason, and yes, that post season was a lot better than lots of Chris Paul post seasons, maybe almost all of them. Why is that a surprise? The gap between good players is not a mountain. Chris Paul lost by 58 points in a 2009 playoff game.

I don't want to say Wall is a better player than Westbrook, he's not. But that 2017 playoffs was historic and better than most of Westbrook's post seasons. It's more of a testament to Wall than a shot at Westbrook (who never got his team out of the 1st round without Durant). I wish more people on here would give Wall credit for his peaks, which were special.

Honestly, Wall was fantastic in the 2018 playoffs also. Overall, he's averaging 26/10 over his last 19 playoff games, with 3 40 point games in there and even his impact stats for those playoffs are pretty good.

Wall has basically become chop liver in everyones minds, but he did seem to become someone who was going to show up in a big way for the the playoffs (minus the game 7 against boston where he seemed to tire out)

Wall is one of the only point guards in recent memory who upped his playoff stats a lot vs. regular season. Most point guards stay the same or increase PPG on decreased efficiency in the playoffs.

Yes, Wall was great in 2018 as well. 2017-2018 playoffs were really just a failure in the Grunfeld regime to not put out the worst bench in the league with awful +/- numbers and box score numbers. Our benches were so miserable that our starters had to play 40 minutes and play behind. A lot of this is on Ernie not on Wall.

[nate33]

Wall has basically become chop liver in everyones minds, but he did seem to become someone who was going to show up in a big way for the the playoffs (minus the game 7 against boston where he seemed to tire out)

I don't think that's the case. I think everyone acknowledges that when Wall is healthy and locked in, he is a very good player - an All-NBA caliber player - maybe 10th to 15th best in the league.

Wall's problem is that he is not healthy and locked in all that often. He has been dealing with injuries for years, and even when healthy, his regular season effort and attention to detail has been wanting. He gets up for big games on national TV, but won't play any defense in a February game on the road against Charlotte.

The hope in the Wall/Westbrook swap is that Westbrook will be more consistent in his effort and intensity, even if his best effort isn't any better than Wall's best effort. At least we will see Westbrook's best effort almost every night.

[payitforward]

Above all... how good Westbrook is & how good Wall is... these things have nothing whatever to do with each other. Neither guy makes the other guy any worse or any better.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

[doclinkin]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

Especially after a weekend in which Harden was on social media partying with da Baby.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

Especially after a weekend in which Harden was on social media partying with da Baby.

I heard a rumor that there was a Kardashian hiding in his beard.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

They dumped his coach. Didn't hire the coach he suggested as a replacement. Moved on from his GM. Traded their other star for a star that's returning from serious injuries and may never be the same. They're basically trying to lose in Houston. They're just trying to bait out better offers but I can't imagine they come. Maybe Miami gets involved, I suppose.

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[wall_glizzy]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

Who writes this stuff? Do you remember when Westbrook failed to report to camp, forcing the GM's hand in trading him to us a week ago? The way people talk about some players here...

[Ruzious]

Seemed worth noting that Harden is a hold out from Houston's training camp while Westbrook reported three hours early for the first day of Wizards camp. Can't teach diligence and respect.

Who writes this stuff? Do you remember when Westbrook failed to report to camp, forcing the GM's hand in trading him to us a week ago? The way people talk about some players here...

So I guess that rules out a Westbrook for Harden trade... unless we get a 3rd team to take Westbrook.

[closg00]

Harden saying he would go to Philly or another playoff team. Yikes! Harden with Philly

[TheBlackCzar]

Initially i was disgusted about the trade, but after a week but I'm excited about all that Westbrook brings to us.....Aside from Jordan this is the most accomplished player we've had in DC.... I'm excited

[Ruzious]

Initially i was disgusted about the trade, but after a week but I'm excited about all that Westbrook brings to us.....Aside from Jordan this is the most accomplished player we've had in DC.... I'm excited

It's fun watching the drills, because before it's Westbrook's turn, players are pretty much ho hum going through the motions, but when it's his turn - he attacks going 100% - and then you can almost see everyone after him increasing their focus and moving faster. I could be wrong, but it's those little things that make subtle differences that end up being important.

[queridiculo]

Harden saying he would go to Philly or another playoff team. Yikes! Harden with Philly

I just don't see a realistic package they could put together that does not include Simmons, and at that point, are the Sixers really much better?

As the Rockets I'd prefer something around Dinwiddie, Levert, Allen.

[gambitx777]

If I were the sixers of trade the shot out of Ben simmons for James harden.

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