ccameron wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Well I think I laid it out pretty plainly based on the POY. It's weird that the PC Board went from being the place that called Curry a Top 5 player while the mainstream didn't even see him as an all-star to a place where we put his GOAT list ranking way below the mainstream. I'm not saying that mere fact makes any particular vote right or wrong, but it's nothing obvious.
Re: 29 to 24. Right, but in the meantime Curry won another championship and then the next year after everyone else got injured Curry took over and did all the volume scoring stuff that people holding 2016 against him say he can't do. This last 3 years stretch (2017 to 2020) wasn't as strong as the previous (2014 to 2017), but keep in mind that from 2014 to 2017 he want from outside of the Top 100 to Top 30 and at that time Curry was already in a debate with Paul.
Curry's best years were from 2014-2017, his huge jump made sense, but of course you aren't going to make anymore massive leaps once you get inside the top 30. By the time of the 2017 project, his 2017 title was already in the books. Since then, he had:
1. 2018: He played well, but played 51 games in the regular season. As a side note, Wade's 2007 season (in which he was arguably playing some of the best basketball of his career) is often completely discounted because he played 51 games. He came back in time for the playoffs, but whereas Curry had the luxury of an all-time cast and could get a title even while missing some more time in the playoffs, Wade had no such luck, so that season just dissapears into the ether for most people when talking about Wade's career. Not saying Curry;s situation was exactly the same, or that 2018 wasn't a positive for him, but it wasn't a great year for him despite the title.
2. 2019: This is a quality season. Although not at the level of 2016 or 2017, he at least showed for me that he didn't crumble after his teamate's injuries, and put up a good fight -- some brilliant moments and some not so brilliant moments, but definetely another prime year
3. 2020: Completely lost season.
So one solid prime year, one prime-ish year with a title but significant playing time lost, and 1 no-show.
Have you looked in depth at the spreadsheet I compiled on the subject which includes a sheet completely devoted to player trajectory? You're essentially telling me what I should expect and quite frankly, you've almost certainly spent a small fraction of the time I have thinking on this very stuff.
Now, I'm saying I'm surprised so I certainly can't claim that I can always predict the minds of others. But when I say something is a discrepant event here, I think folks would be wise to listen.
To add to your commentary for the years in question:
2018: Durant comes back from the first title unhappy and touchy. He plays less in the Warriors system, holding the ball more for himself. Curry and the rest of the team allow him to take on an even higher primacy as they work to keep him happy. Curry also misses time to injury. Despite this, Curry leads the league in all-season +/- with a sizable edge over Durant who played roughly 1000 minutes more. The team is succeeding by all standard team estimates, winning yet another title, and Curry is displaying an all-time level humility for a 2-time MVP who also happens to be clearly the most impactful player on the roster yet has to tolerate another player's splintering ego.
2019: The same trends continue with Durant's behavior moving from "touchy" to abusive. He insults and yells at teammates, coaches, and beat reporters with a repeating pattern of accusing others of favoring Curry. Through it all, Curry never seems to do anything to fire back. He's nice and polite, goes out there in his beta role so that Durant can play alpha. Then when Durant goes down, Curry rips off 8 30 point games in the final 11 of the playoffs to lead the team past Houston & Portland and give Toronto an awful scare. He leaves absolutely zero doubt that even a top tier defense like Toronto can't stymy him the way they did Giannis, as well as making clear that his move to beta next to Durant really had nothing to do with him having diminished capabilities.
2020 is a wash, obviously, and theoretically shouldn't matter, though I'd venture that Curry would have ranked higher a year ago.
The more important thing is holistic.
The skepticism around Curry focuses on the fact that he didn't play great against Cleveland in 2016, but his numbers really weren't that bad in the first place, and if he later shows himself able to put up big numbers against a top defense like the Raptors getting zero in exclusively on him, what exactly are we still skeptical about? and how much should it really be messing with us?
ccameron wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Meanwhile, what's Paul done these past 3 years? Left his long-time team with a bunch of ill-will, forced his way to the Rockets, been so annoying on the Rockets that he got sent to irrelevance (OKC), and now he's going to another lottery team - granted one with hope for the next year. It has not been a good epoch for him, particularly if you're someone like me who prior to this point basically gave Paul the benefit of the doubt about his tendency to make those around him unhappy, and no there is no more doubt.
Paul had 3 quality allstar level seasons. He played more games than Curry. People I think really started to wake up to how valuable a player he was during his time on a true contender in the Rockets. He had his injury problems, too, and I value Curry's higher peak during these three years (despite a completely lost year and significantly fewer games played), so it makes sense Curry catches up to him a little.
As for his personality, How much of him being "sent to irrelevance" was on him and how much was on Harden? Neither seems to have a great track record, but in CP3s case it's possible that his desire to win at all costs is what irks his less competitive teamates. We've seen what happened to Jimmy Butler when he started playing for a quality franchise. Not sure CP3 doesn't have some blame here, but I don't know how you can just dismiss him like that when, in my opinion, he has played for some pretty dysfunctional teams to begin with.
Both Paul and Harden need to be damned to some degree for their personalities at this point. It's not a question of either/or, it's a question of why their relationship blew up.
And that's not actually a question, because we know the answer. Paul decided he wanted to go play with Harden, Paul then wouldn't shut up about how he thought Harden should play until Harden got fed up and got him shipped out. I've been pretty open about how I'm criticizing Harden for his attitude, but that doesn't excuse Paul because it was Paul's job to make his new boss happy, and he didn't do it.
I've got a relative. Incredibly smart. Reading from the age of 3. Can hear a song on the radio and instantly set down and perform it on the piano, both music and lyrics. He instantly recognizes and remembers all the music and lyrics, and generally has this command with anything. But his career really didn't go that well and everyone in the family has a sense of why: Because he wasn't the boss, and he didn't ingratiate himself to his bosses, he just told them what they should be doing repeatedly, insistently, and condescendingly.
When you're not the 600 lb gorilla in the room and you act like you are, bad things happen to you.
Some people suffer this simply because circumstances happen to them, but that's not what happened with Paul. He chose this specifically and chose it after creating an uptight, uncomfortable, fragile-in-the-playoffs environment on his previous team. He did this to himself, and while Harden deserves play, Paul has no one to blame but himself.
ccameron wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:2. The fact that Wade is now someone from the past while his draftmate is still the best player in the world is really hammering in how poor Wade's longevity was. In a sport where we're now expecting 15 year plus years of relevance, Wade stands out as someone whose game just could not do this. If you go look at this list to this point and just look at the more modern guys, they're basically all guys whose games aged like wine. Wade's aged more like milk. This is bound to hurt him.
Almost every draftmate of Wade is long gone, and only a few are playing bench roles on the vet minimum. In fact I can only think of Carmelo Anthony at the moment (and Udonis Haslem who went undrafted, and has long been more of a coach than a player). Who else is still in the league? The fact that Lebron is still the best player in the league shows what a freak he is, and nothing else. Wade's longevity is not the best, but if you hold anybody to Lebron's standard, nearly everyone not Kareem or Malone pales.
I would suggest you actually go and look to compare Wade to other contemporary superstars' longevities if you're skeptical. I don't think it's actually a debate as to whether Wade's longevity is hurting him here.
On the 2003 draft class specifically, I'll note a few players:
1. Carmelo Anthony has now had a considerably longer career than Wade despite before a far lower BBIQ player with a far worse prime, and Wade not really having injury as an excuse for his falloff. I frankly wouldn't even call Melo's longevity an outlier at this point, it's just what we expect from guys who don't get hurt.
2. Draftmate and Teammate Chris Bosh had clearly been anointed the team's new focus after LeBron left rather than Wade, and while Bosh was younger than Wade, I really think it was clear to everyone at the time that Bosh's game was aging better than Wade's.
3. Kyle Korver has been more in demand than Wade for a while now. Why? Because great shooters age well.
ccameron wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Yes, people are trying to defend his longevity, point out other players didn't have that many more great years and all that, and certainly for some that perspective is the one that resonates with them, but I don't think there's any doubt that Wade's losing some stature over time when we're realizing how unusual Wade's age limitations are compared to most other top-tier guys.
Now as I've said: There are clear reasons for this. It's not a personality flaw on Wade's part. The issues is simply 1) his game was more dependent on youthful explosion than basically any other top-tier guys, 2) his shot always sucked and we're now in an era where that's a much bigger deal than ever before - give Wade good shooting and he's still playing, and 3) he didn't have an off-the-charts BBIQ which at this level is almost par for the course for guards.
Beyond that for me and some others, the fact that Wade really never showed an ability to lead elite offenses is concerning. I tend to see him more as a floor raiser than a ceiling raiser, and this is not something I used to think about. At one point I would have argued that Wade was arguably better than Kobe prime vs prime and just give Kobe the longevity edge. Now? Not so much.
We won't agree on a lot of this, and we've probably stated out positions on a lot of this already with regard to his longevity. He was capable of superstar play for 10 years (although frequently interrupted by injuries), and all star play for another 3 or so years, and then decided to be of marginal positive value as a bench player rather than detrimental value as an aging starter (not of any significance to me except to illustrate his personality and team-first mentality, since you have brought this up as a significant point with regard to stars). As for his BBIQ, while not at the level of Lebron/CP3/Nash, he has been universally praised for being an extremely intelligent player by teammates and coaching staff (Spoelstra has made it a very frequent point), as a scorer, playmaker, and defender, so I don't know what else to say about that. If by "his shot sucked" you mean he wasn't a good 3 point shooter, fine, but "his shot" included a pretty reliable midrange. In today's era, no doubt coaching staff would not tell him to not bother with 3s, and no question the proportion of end-of-shotclock bailout plays goes down, but whatever. You can knock him for not being a good 3pt shooter, but not that his shot "sucked."
I totally disagree that Wade couldn't lead elite offenses. If we ever saw him on an offensive minded team built around him, like we have with Curry, Lebron, Harden, Nash, etc., then you could make that statement. But we never did. I would like to see Curry or Harden or Nash produce their elite offenses on those late 2000s Heat teams.
Wade had 5 superstar years. His last one came at age 29. Look around at guys other modern guys who we'd even consider comparing to Wade, they probably had superstar years after that.
Re: BBIQ. I'm not looking to call him dumb, but this stuff matters when people keep saying that he'd magically lead elite offenses if he just had better shooters around him. You cannot simply assume that he'd have been able to run an offense like them.
Re: shot sucked. For comparison here, here's Wade's career shot percentages at various non-3 point ranges:
0-3: .655
3-10: .457
10-16: .384
16-3P: .386
Here's KG:
0-3: .674
3-10: .459
10-16: .451
16-3P: .454
You see the difference?
Now if you want to come back to me with more comparisons along these lines and slot people into a greyscale that's fine. Maybe I'll end up concluding that Wade needs to be given a label other than "sucks", but I think it's pretty obvious that Wade's bread and butter came 10 feet and in, and that's not the sort of thing that ages well when you're an explosion-based guard.
Re: Can't speak to what we didn't see. I'd argue that the only way to get anywhere with this is if you try your best and accept that your knowledge will always be incomplete.













