Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team"

[Bensational]

I've seen short guards box him out in the paint with their low center of gravity and similar weight. they can't do that no more. People really try to make narratives that just take the obvious. We all knew he was too skinny coming into the league and he was a couple years away from being a true contributor.... what more would you expect up till now... all while factoring in the injury stuff and covid. lol. I would be cautious too if kyle lowry was taking me in the paint. hahaha

What narrative? He bulked up but his cardio, which was already lacking, went into the red. He boasts of running a few miles every day now. Why wasn't he doing that for the past two seasons? Even before he bulked up his cardio was in question.

You can say lingering covid effects prevented his cardio but if he had the strength and energy to add mass I'm not sure why he didn't have the energy to continue pushing his cardio. (though, in my own admission, I don't know how covid effects in that regard).

We're talking about a dude who slept through a tape session. If you don't think professionalism is in question then I don't know what else to say.

Firstly, he didn't bulk up from laziness. It takes a concerted effort to gain that weight when you are a rail-thin, professional athlete. He didn't gain that weight when he was in a cast recovering from a broken leg. I don't know what happened. I don't know what sort of input he got from the organization. It's just really weird to see people on this board criticizing him after he has been lambasted for being too thin.

Secondly, he probably wasn't allowed to run that much last year due to the stress fracture in his leg that he had recently recovered from. Much like the medical staff of the Orlando Magic, I'm no expert, but I did get a stress fracture in my leg from running too much. I'd expect that it took some time before he was cleared to resume.

Thirdly, this rabbit hole of criticism regarding a comment Bamba made about running is nothing more than a litmus test for the prejudices of people on this board. The guy said he is running 3.5 miles a day and that has been construed as more evidence of how lazy he is? WTF is going on here?

This is all forest from the trees stuff. I give zero **** about whether or not Clifford thinks he is hustling enough. It is entirely irrelevant as to whether or not he should be ahead of Birch in the rotation. The difference in upside between these two players is immense. Bamba has comparable measurables to Gobert, but with superior mobility and the potential to stretch the floor. We knew he was raw when he was drafted. We knew his development would be a process. He wasn't who I wanted. I wanted Mikal Bridges. But since we drafted Bamba, we committed to that development. The funny **** thing in all of this is that I did not want to draft Cole Anthony, but I can almost guarantee you I'm going to end up defending him on this board.

Birch, on his best day, is replacement level. He is an undersized big that possesses no skills of value. He has no talent. He will never have value. He will never be anything better than a bench big that you hope doesn't kill you when he is on the floor. But we did get killed when he was on the floor last year:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&TeamID=1610612753

There is nothing to gain by indulging Clifford's crusade to use discipline to drag a **** roster into a play-in game. We have bigger fish to fry. We should be concerned with the future of this franchise. People are comparing Clifford to HOF caliber coaches to defend his desire to play Birch over Bamba. Clifford is a nun with a yardstick try to teach the naughty boy how good boys behave. This board has gone **** nuts.

There are plenty of stress-free ways to improve cardio that aren't running. Bamba has now had 2.5 years working with professional trainers whilst being paid millions of dollars to be an athlete and he has failed to get his body and fitness up to an acceptable standard in that time. Yes, Magic trainers surely require some blame, but come on man. Give anyone on this board the same privileges and I guarantee they can get their fitness to a higher standard than Mo has done in that same time.

Really, what excuse can you give a guy for not being able to run the court for a full game and not get winded when it's fundamental to the game? The stress fracture in his leg didn't stop him from swimming, or cycling. Isaac improved his body and health whilst he was as injured in his rookie year.

Birch is a moot point. If Mo doesn't have the self respect to develop his body to its highest standard then that's on him alone. I'm certainly not one of those drawing parallels between Cliff and any good coach. Mo could play for any coach and in the end it wouldn't matter if he doesn't decide to put the effort in himself. I don't know why that element is being glossed over so much.

[yoyojw17]

What narrative? He bulked up but his cardio, which was already lacking, went into the red. He boasts of running a few miles every day now. Why wasn't he doing that for the past two seasons? Even before he bulked up his cardio was in question.

You can say lingering covid effects prevented his cardio but if he had the strength and energy to add mass I'm not sure why he didn't have the energy to continue pushing his cardio. (though, in my own admission, I don't know how covid effects in that regard).

We're talking about a dude who slept through a tape session. If you don't think professionalism is in question then I don't know what else to say.

Firstly, he didn't bulk up from laziness. It takes a concerted effort to gain that weight when you are a rail-thin, professional athlete. He didn't gain that weight when he was in a cast recovering from a broken leg. I don't know what happened. I don't know what sort of input he got from the organization. It's just really weird to see people on this board criticizing him after he has been lambasted for being too thin.

Secondly, he probably wasn't allowed to run that much last year due to the stress fracture in his leg that he had recently recovered from. Much like the medical staff of the Orlando Magic, I'm no expert, but I did get a stress fracture in my leg from running too much. I'd expect that it took some time before he was cleared to resume.

Thirdly, this rabbit hole of criticism regarding a comment Bamba made about running is nothing more than a litmus test for the prejudices of people on this board. The guy said he is running 3.5 miles a day and that has been construed as more evidence of how lazy he is? WTF is going on here?

This is all forest from the trees stuff. I give zero **** about whether or not Clifford thinks he is hustling enough. It is entirely irrelevant as to whether or not he should be ahead of Birch in the rotation. The difference in upside between these two players is immense. Bamba has comparable measurables to Gobert, but with superior mobility and the potential to stretch the floor. We knew he was raw when he was drafted. We knew his development would be a process. He wasn't who I wanted. I wanted Mikal Bridges. But since we drafted Bamba, we committed to that development. The funny **** thing in all of this is that I did not want to draft Cole Anthony, but I can almost guarantee you I'm going to end up defending him on this board.

Birch, on his best day, is replacement level. He is an undersized big that possesses no skills of value. He has no talent. He will never have value. He will never be anything better than a bench big that you hope doesn't kill you when he is on the floor. But we did get killed when he was on the floor last year:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&TeamID=1610612753

There is nothing to gain by indulging Clifford's crusade to use discipline to drag a **** roster into a play-in game. We have bigger fish to fry. We should be concerned with the future of this franchise. People are comparing Clifford to HOF caliber coaches to defend his desire to play Birch over Bamba. Clifford is a nun with a yardstick try to teach the naughty boy how good boys behave. This board has gone **** nuts.

There are plenty of stress-free ways to improve cardio that aren't running. Bamba has now had 2.5 years working with professional trainers whilst being paid millions of dollars to be an athlete and he has failed to get his body and fitness up to an acceptable standard in that time. Yes, Magic trainers surely require some blame, but come on man. Give anyone on this board the same privileges and I guarantee they can get their fitness to a higher standard than Mo has done in that same time.

Really, what excuse can you give a guy for not being able to run the court for a full game and not get winded when it's fundamental to the game? The stress fracture in his leg didn't stop him from swimming, or cycling. Isaac improved his body and health whilst he was as injured in his rookie year.

Birch is a moot point. If Mo doesn't have the self respect to develop his body to its highest standard then that's on him alone. I'm certainly not one of those drawing parallels between Cliff and any good coach. Mo could play for any coach and in the end it wouldn't matter if he doesn't decide to put the effort in himself. I don't know why that element is being glossed over so much.

The guy... gained weight....was probably from a cardio standpoint a little behind... because... you don't gain 30lb + by doing cardio... you eat and lift your butt off. And throw Covid on top of that.... and now you got a guy that is lumbering up and down the court.

Apparently he is at a good spot now ... weighing in at 240lb. and from what i understood .. this was by design.

And as steve clifford said... he's not going to put someone in a position for them to fail. and throwing 210lb 7 footer might not hep his development as much as people might think. Bamba is now in a position where he can impose his will on the game.... Now wee shall see what he does with the new tools.

[Bensational]

The guy... gained weight....was probably from a cardio standpoint a little behind... because... you don't gain 30lb + by doing cardio... you eat and lift your butt off. And throw Covid on top of that.... and now you got a guy that is lumbering up and down the court.

He gained weight during the lockdown which started in March 2020. He was drafted in June 2018. There's a 21 month gap there where he hadn't addressed either.

[yoyojw17]

The guy... gained weight....was probably from a cardio standpoint a little behind... because... you don't gain 30lb + by doing cardio... you eat and lift your butt off. And throw Covid on top of that.... and now you got a guy that is lumbering up and down the court.

He gained weight during the lockdown which started in March 2020. He was drafted in June 2018. There's a 21 month gap there where he hadn't addressed either.

He was also up to 238 at the beginning of the last season.... which players usually lose a lot of once they start playing.

But to be honest with you... if you don't like him... it is what it is. I'm willing to see where this all leads to and hope that it all works for the best.

[pepe1991]

EDITED WHOLE POST

Didn't have time at home to type everything i wanted.

So let's go with specific details of what is here being argued.

1) Weight gain

Using online calculator, for person who is 7 feet tall, at age of 22, normal caloric intake to maintain weight is around 3700 calories. It's already A LOT.
but in order to gain weight in 3 months, 30 pounds, with moderate exercise ( 3-5 times a week) he had to eat 5067 calories a day.



This is what 5000 calories looks like. Regardless of what you eat, calories are calories, intake has to surpass your trashold of maintanence to add weight. Fat, muscles, body doesn't really know difference when it comes to adding weight. All modern scientics say that adding weight wery slowly for build muscles is best ( and only possible way to be sustainable) .And even if you do that, your body after some time will stop growing ( natural muscular platoe).

My personal opinion is that Bamba used something from collection of new modern PEDs. Was it some SARM, growth hormon,whatever. He wouldn't be first in NBA to do it, Collins got cought abusing steroids twice in 3 years. Howard uses something whole career long. All those guys in their mid 30s going strong nowdays...yea, they all probably cycle in offseason or even in middle of season.
They flat out work. Moderate or lower dose of test, deca, anadrol flat out work ( saw it in person, kids nowdays use everything ).

So he probably ( i assume ) took something for muscle gain, added s*** loud of food to that and gained lot of bloated water, fat and muscles. That additional addition of food shut down his body and flat out didn't help with his already poor conditioning.


2) Cardio and stress fracture

I don't think i'm talking about rocket science when i say running is worst and most taxting to your body type of cardio.
Way better atlernatives: swimming ( especially for stress fracture), cycling, jump ropes, elliptical trainer all are easier on your joints. Now for him, due stress fracture, cycling, elliptical bike and swimming ( anything in water really) is way better alternative.

I already touched on his "3,5 miles a day". That's run that healthy person in his age group joggs in 29 min. I highly doubt it's enough cardio for professional athlete. Given his giant steps he probably can run that in 20-ish min.


3) He is mobile and athletic.
except a fact he really is not.

https://www.thestepien.com/2018/04/16/bet-mo-bamba-bet-athletic-development/

Before draft in 2018 TheStepien made huge article titled "Is a Bet on Mo Bamba a Bet on Athletic Development?"
Where they touched topics nobody wanted to talk during hype workouts

His takeaways about his mobility were

However, tight space mobility is different from lateral quickness and speed. Notice how cramped the floor is in that above clip. For many players, we talk about how the increased spacing of the NBA game will help them. For Bamba, the opposite is true. The closer knit college floor allowed Bamba to stay around the rim more, relying on his length and short-area movement skills.

In the NBA, he is going to be in trouble facing explosive athletes with space to work. Watch how when Texas Tech manages to give Keenan Evans some actual space to attack, he easily glides by Bamba.

er. But to draft Bamba in the top-5 of a loaded class like this should come with the expectation that he has Gobert-like upside. Without significant athletic development from a strength and mobility standpoint, that upside seems unrealistic. Particularly considering how exceptional of a diagnostic defender Gobert has turned into.

Bamba’s athletic concerns also translate to the offensive side of things. His 7’9 wingspan gives him an enormous catch radius on lobs, but his lack of burst and speed limit his effectiveness in this role. Even if dunking the ball here is unrealistic, you would at least expect Bamba to come down with a catch.

This lack of explosion is very concerning. Bamba has the length to provide value as a finisher, but his limited bounce and speed makes him unlikely to be a gravitational pick-and-roll threat.

I also worry about Bamba’s ability to do much of anything offensively outside catch and finish around the hoop. He isn’t going to be tasked with posting up in the NBA, but his tendency to just wilt when he catches the ball in the post is not a good sign for his effectiveness catching in traffic as a roll-man.

His ending words were

However, I think the grouping of Bamba with the other exceptional bigs at the top of this year’s class is a bit overzealous. Without outlier athletic development, Bamba has the makings of a good but flawed defender who brings very little offensive value. That player could still be a starter, but in an NBA that is increasingly favoring spacing and quickness the value of such a player is genuinely diminished.

[fklt]

man, did we all forget bamba jumped straight into the rotation from his first NBA game, even though he was considered less productive than birch back then? this has nothing to do with him being young, he just lost his spot by playing like **** for 2 seasons.

[SOUL]

I think there can be two truths in these talks. One is that Clifford doesn't like how Bamba approaches the game, he may be unprofessional/goofy/young/not as business-like in a Howard sort of mold without having that sort of talent that Howard had. At the same time, we cannot peddle 'fake news" here saying he lost his spot because he wasn't outplaying Birch or the bench defense was good because of everybody else besides Bamba. Every impact stat shows Bamba as a way better option than Birch last season.

In that case, it is a matter of how you look at a situation like that. I understand it from a personal side that coaches want to be able to trust a player in any sport, someone that will do their job and play their role just how coach wants it, even if it's not very conducive to the team's future or winning, versus moments of brilliance or potential that overshadowed by plays where they don't look prepared or ready all the time, even if it helps the team.

The arguments arise when we continue to draft high and then not explore all avenues with our picks or get the most out of them. Contrary to popular belief around here, a player's trajectory and career can be changed by the situation they're put in. You hear stories all the time about how injuries or a specific situation led to future hall of famers (on the extreme end of talent) being able to finally get minutes or show what they have. On the other hand, sometimes some players need to be humbled a bit and be given exposure to the league at a slower pace. This isn't targeted or inferring that Bamba or Hezonja are hall of fame players, it's a general statement, and just saying that for people that say "good players will show it regardless of the situation they're in". Not true.

And we need to start looking at development as fans as more than raw mpg. For instance, I'm sure a guy like JJ Redick knowing that he has to run around picks and never stop and shoot open shots because plays will be designed to get him open while playing 16 minutes is more rewarding and easier to prepare for than playing him 24 minutes and sticking him in a corner and letting him score off of broken plays and passes that come out of desperation.

Basketball is a very simple sport that I think we collectively overthink, but at the same time, we generalize a lot of scenarios as "opportunity". When I get mad at other teams playing rookies it's not because they're particularly effective or have earned their roles or are that much better or are getting more minutes, it's because their team makes simple plays to involve them and pass to them when they make an effort play or are open, compared to the Magic when we've gone cold shooting 1-11 while our point guards miss people cutting open to the basket or we start forcing it to Ross to bail us out when he's cold, or create some god-awful pecking order where we have to make sure Jeff Green and Ben Gordon gets theirs first. That's when I start getting annoyed.

[pepe1991]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

[drsd]

There are plenty of stress-free ways to improve cardio that aren't running.

This reminded me of when Dennis Rodman would use an exercise bike during game-time to stay warm.

Bamba has now had 2.5 years working with professional trainers whilst being paid millions of dollars to be an athlete and he has failed to get his body and fitness up to an acceptable standard in that time.

All news during this "summer" was that Bamba intentionally became more spelt and is in excellent cardio-shape.

We will see.


..

[GelbeWand09]

man, did we all forget bamba jumped straight into the rotation from his first NBA game, even though he was considered less productive than birch back then? this has nothing to do with him being young, he just lost his spot by playing like **** for 2 seasons.

The fact is, he was still better than Birch last year.
I'm not the 1st here saying that, but Birch's play was atrocious last year & Bamba was the better player, despite all the circumstances.


About the whole Bamba situation:

This comes from someone who wrote 18 months ago already, that i doesnt care for Bamba as a magic player anymore, because he wont be here in 2 seasons anyway.
I dont understand why here is a heated discussion if Mo or Cliff are to blame for this situation. WeHam are to blame for this & it was clear from day one or at least after Vuc was resigned.
They killed every value of a 6th pick in a fantastic draft, because they drafted him despite he plays the same position as there best player & doesnt trade him after his rookie season (and Vuc's Allstar season). Reality is, even when Mo had no injuries/illness/underdeveloped body/goofiness/maturity problems & developed at a normal speed, he would still play only 15-17 min. We resigned a late 20's Allstar at his position & both can't play any PF minutes in a win now situation, under a win now ol skool coach.
It was clear as day at the trade deadline 2 seasons ago, that he wont be hear after his 3rd or 4th year. He either busts (because of himself or the circumstances) or he wants out of here.
There was never a chance for a happy-end in this scenario. He either busts or plays good, but still wont get enough playing time & wants a trade. He woudnt have much value, because of his playing time behind Vuc & the position he plays (Another reason to blame WeHam, because the dropped value of Centers is not a new fact). Some may say, we could have traded Vuc if he plays good, but this wasnt a realistic scenario, because Bamba was always too raw bodywise & skillwise for this to happen anytime soon on a desperate team missing the PO for 6-7 years straight.

Even if Mo is lazy & not a professional, its still the job of the FO to find that out about the player before they draft him, even more in a draft like this, having a high pick. Same goes for the Clifford situation. Everyone knew which kind of coach we get, when we signed him.

We should blame the FO & doesnt waste our energy fighting about players (Mo & birch) who wont be here in the next 6-12 months anyway & wont move the needle at all.

[fendilim]

I've only seen where he was getting 1.6m this year in OKC.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Read on Twitter

Wow, that didn't take long.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Yeah. Cause he sucks. Lol

[tiderulz]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

maybe, but it also lets you know what a player might be capable of early on. instead of waiting years to see if a player is going to pan out or not. not saying make them a starter, but give decent amount of minute.

[VFX]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

Rookies are rarely good.

Anyone that follows the game knows this. There are few examples of guys that come in and immediately have a huge impact. The point is that the best way to acclimate them is to get them real in-game experience. Getting valuable minutes affords them that one opportunity early in their career.

Highly coveted top picks are usually drafted to bad teams. There is no reason for them to not get minutes. Some players drafted to “better” teams have a more ideal situation because the pick isn’t a band aid, but an investment to learn behind vets if needed. Orlando doesn’t fit into the latter category.

The middle ground to this is having a good supporting cast, being a useful player per position, and being offered minutes to be able to fail and adjust to the game early while still having responsibility as a first round pick.

Situation matters. Period. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th and averaged playing the second most minutes in the 2012-2013 season on a team with 3 HoF players. Nobody can tell me with a straight face that trajectory didn’t matter and his fit wasn’t conducive to his success. His situation would be vastly different playing behind Jeff Green 13mpg because he is deemed unreliable. Extreme example, but you get the point.

There will always be busts. There will always be examples of players outperforming their draft #. Players can also “hide” their deficiencies playing on much better teams if they fit a role. You don’t need 5-7 years of information on a player if you’ve seen what they can and can’t do with real minutes on an nba court.

I’m not really sure what you have against rookies and playing time. Orlando isn’t accomplishing anything regardless of playing Mo Bamba 12mpg or 22mpg. The outcome will still equal a roster being a fringe playoff team either way. If Clifford decides to bury him on the bench, they might as well trade him to get back what value has already been lost. There’s no point to devaluing an asset while simultaneously limiting a lottery picks career advancement.

[EasternMagic]

So far in ESPN's top 100 player rankings (100-51) AG is the only ranked player. Seems possible that Vucevic will be the only other Magician to make the rankings:

AG drops from 45 to 78
"Has the clock run out on Gordon's potential? At age 25, having seen his scoring average decrease in each of the past two seasons, it might be time to accept Gordon is what he has always been: a versatile defender capable of playing either forward spot but a below-average shooter who doesn't supply quite enough playmaking to compensate"

[pepe1991]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

Rookies are rarely good.

Anyone that follows the game knows this. There are few examples of guys that come in and immediately have a huge impact. The point is that the best way to acclimate them is to get them real in-game experience. Getting valuable minutes affords them that one opportunity early in their career.

Highly coveted top picks are usually drafted to bad teams. There is no reason for them to not get minutes. Some players drafted to “better” teams have a more ideal situation because the pick isn’t a band aid, but an investment to learn behind vets if needed. Orlando doesn’t fit into the latter category.

The middle ground to this is having a good supporting cast, being a useful player per position, and being offered minutes to be able to fail and adjust to the game early while still having responsibility as a first round pick.

Situation matters. Period. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th and averaged playing the second most minutes in the 2012-2013 season on a team with 3 HoF players. Nobody can tell me with a straight face that trajectory didn’t matter a

I agree nd his fit wasn’t conducive to his success. His situation would be vastly different playing behind Jeff Green 13mpg because he is deemed unreliable. Extreme example, but you get the point.

There will always be busts. There will always be examples of players outperforming their draft #. Players can also “hide” their deficiencies playing on much better teams if they fit a role. You don’t need 5-7 years of information on a player if you’ve seen what they can and can’t do with real minutes on an nba court.

I’m not really sure what you have against rookies and playing time. Orlando isn’t accomplishing anything regardless of playing Mo Bamba 12mpg or 22mpg. The outcome will still equal a roster being a fringe playoff team either way. If Clifford decides to bury him on the bench, they might as well trade him to get back what value has already been lost. There’s no point to devaluing an asset while simultaneously limiting a lottery picks career advancement.

BPA relative to situation has some merrit, but i don't know how much.

Same team drafted 3 centers- Noel, Okafor and Embiid, played them with literally same guys, but only Embiid ended up looking like a star. Outliner? Eh

Jokic, Mudiay, Murray drafed by same Nuggets team ,same stuff, same supporting cast. 2 end up being stars, one ends up being terrible player.

No team lined up more lottery draft picks but Minessota and Sacramento in a row.
Same team that drafted Cousins who was one of best nba centers also drafted, and playedo na same team: Isaiah Thomas ( complete steal for last draft pick) but also: Thomas Robinson, Nick Stauskas, Ben Mclemore

And in another re -rebuild same team, same situation,same teammates on one side young stud De'aaron Fox, on other...Marvin Bagley.

Minessota drafted Towns, one of the best bigs in nba year after Wiggins, one of most dissapointing first picks ever. Same team, same players, same coach... But there has to be something that set them apart. It's not even hard working, Butler said both are men-childs that play video games all day long. Towns just had more talent.

Kawhi probably did have LOT of positive influence being close to Parker, Duncan and Manu, but so are many, many other young Spurs players that never turned into anything. George Hill ( pop's new big thing that never turned into a one), investing lot of time in Dejuan Blair, Corey Joseph... And when it was time to move on from Timmy, Manu and Tony Popovich flat out botched it and NEVER menaged to establish new generation of "stars". Because... you know... stars are not developed but probably borned to be stars and always had that crazy potential.
Luka Šamanić , Looney Walker.... do any of them sound like some future groundbreaking stars? Even Dejounte Murray project is falling apart.


I'm not against playing young players. If they are actually good enough to play. Most of them, who don't play a lot because they can't beat Jeff Green and Jodie Meeks for rotation spot flat out aren't good.
And you know what would devalue them even more? Playing 25 min and being without any excuse why they are worst rotation players in nba. wink wink Kevin Knox, Frank Ntkilina, Mudiay, Dante Exum

[jonbob17]

Even Zion and Morant were not that good last year, and they were some of the better rookies in recent memory, outside of Doncic. Zion was crazy efficient and scored well, but his defense was suspect, as was his outside (the paint) shot.
What will make these guys turn into super stars is experience.

just a quick way to compare dissimilar seasons is RAPTOR.
Zion was roughly the same as Marcus Morris (or Bamba, skewed defense)
Morant was similar in value to Augustin

Both were very exciting to watch, and they showed their potential, but they still have a lot to learn about the NBA game. They do that through in-game experience and coaching. It's seeing what they can do and get away with at the crazy fast speed of an actual NBA game.

[Xatticus]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

Rookies are rarely good.

Anyone that follows the game knows this. There are few examples of guys that come in and immediately have a huge impact. The point is that the best way to acclimate them is to get them real in-game experience. Getting valuable minutes affords them that one opportunity early in their career.

Highly coveted top picks are usually drafted to bad teams. There is no reason for them to not get minutes. Some players drafted to “better” teams have a more ideal situation because the pick isn’t a band aid, but an investment to learn behind vets if needed. Orlando doesn’t fit into the latter category.

The middle ground to this is having a good supporting cast, being a useful player per position, and being offered minutes to be able to fail and adjust to the game early while still having responsibility as a first round pick.

Situation matters. Period. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th and averaged playing the second most minutes in the 2012-2013 season on a team with 3 HoF players. Nobody can tell me with a straight face that trajectory didn’t matter and his fit wasn’t conducive to his success. His situation would be vastly different playing behind Jeff Green 13mpg because he is deemed unreliable. Extreme example, but you get the point.

There will always be busts. There will always be examples of players outperforming their draft #. Players can also “hide” their deficiencies playing on much better teams if they fit a role. You don’t need 5-7 years of information on a player if you’ve seen what they can and can’t do with real minutes on an nba court.

I’m not really sure what you have against rookies and playing time. Orlando isn’t accomplishing anything regardless of playing Mo Bamba 12mpg or 22mpg. The outcome will still equal a roster being a fringe playoff team either way. If Clifford decides to bury him on the bench, they might as well trade him to get back what value has already been lost. There’s no point to devaluing an asset while simultaneously limiting a lottery picks career advancement.

You just can't argue that playing time doesn't aid in development. We know it expedites things. Second-round picks take longer to develop because their path to playing time is less clear. This is why draft position is factored into development curves. You can study carpentry for years, but there is only so much you can learn until you actually start cutting and building.

Young players under Clifford just don't improve. He doesn't trust them with the ball. You don't improve with the ball in your hands if you never have the ball in your hands. The lone exception is Kemba, but Kemba was already running Charlotte's offense before Clifford was hired.

One thing that people are completely ignoring in this debate is roster composition. Sometimes a coach simply doesn't have an option but to play the young guys. This is why I was so vehemently against bringing in Ennis. He isn't good enough to take minutes away from younger players, though at this point we don't have any young players for him to obstruct. The same is true for Birch, though I never honestly believed that Clifford would consider putting him ahead of Bamba.

Coaches aren't one size fits all. I'm sure the great ones can wear many hats, but that isn't Clifford. He is what he is. I think he is a poor fit for this organization at present, but if you are going to have him, you can't give him crutches to lean on. I'm glad we didn't bring in a vet to replace Augustin. Fultz and Anthony will have to be heavily involved in the offense, won't they? I expect to see more of buddy ball and I expect him to use MCW more as a PG, but neither of those are appealing options and you can only get so much mileage from them. I expect Clifford will start rankling for a veteran PG at some point, but in the meantime, we should get to see the ball in the hands of our young guard prospects.

[pepe1991]

Still, there is very little co-relation between playing a lot and developing further.
Most rookies who play a lot play because :
1) teams tanking, so help tanking
2) they are really really good


And if you look at playing time of guys like 2015 draft class:
Towns-32 min as rookie- was great as rookie, great player today
D'angleo Russell played a lot as rookie, his rookie efficiency stats are very similar to his career ones
Jah Okafor- played a lot in rookie year -never developed
Porzingis - 28 mpg-great rookie- great player
Hezonja- small PT as rookie- never got lot of PT anywhere he went
Stein- played a lot as rookie, never improved
Mudiay-played A LOT as rookie ( 30 mpg) never developed
Stanley Johnson- his rookie MPG is lower than career MPG, never developed
Kaminsky- moderate usgae as rookie, same for career
Winslow- played a lot as rookie, never developed
Turner- 23 mpg as rookie, 28 mpg for career. Very similar stats.
Lyles -17 mpg as rookie, 18 mpg for career, literally same player as he was in rookie year
Booker- played a lot as rookie, developed into great player
Payne- was trash stayed trash


It's very clear that playing a lot as rookie means nothing in co-relation with development and becomming great.

Towns and Zingis played great that's why they played a lot. Others played a lot just to jusfty draft stock ( Stein, Johnson, Jah Okafor) and were of fringe of dropping from nba in 4 years.

maybe, but it also lets you know what a player might be capable of early on. instead of waiting years to see if a player is going to pan out or not. not saying make them a starter, but give decent amount of minute.

For scous and GM maybe, for fans? No way.

Excuses and deflactions:
year 1 : leave him alone he is kid
year 2 : he is still a kid, he is learning didn't fill up body yet
year 3: he missed 1 day of training camp last year, he didn't go through full preparation drill
year 4: well Kawhi Leonard didn't turn into star until his 5th year
year 5: well... he scored 20 points 3 years ago against Real Madrid against 14 years old Luka Doncic
year 6: ...

you get a point. Fans are delusional. They simply can't accept reality. I mean, read Elfrid Payton year 3 threads. You shouldn't really look further.

[drsd]

maybe, but it also lets you know what a player might be capable of early on. instead of waiting years to see if a player is going to pan out or not. not saying make them a starter, but give decent amount of minute.

[drsd]

well Kawhi Leonard didn't turn into star until his 5th year.

He was Finals MVP in year 3 though. A year he was Defensive second team. And he was a Rookie first teamer.



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