Sansterre's Top 100 Teams, #56-60, 1990 DET, 1974 MIL, 1960 BOS, 1982 BOS, 2012 OKC

[70sFan]

My main point is IT was the consistent driver of the Piston's offense from 1985-1990, which performed pretty well. It's not like their offense plummeted when Dantley left.

That's true, I'm just pointing out that Pistons weren't that great offensively and it certainly wasn't Dantley who held them back.

Since you mentioned it, I took a closer and quick look at the Piston's 1988-1989 regular season.

Piston's before the Dantley/Aguirre trade:rs ORtg 108.5 DRtg 104.3, 33-15 record(? not sure about the record).
Piston's after the Dantley/Aguirre trade: rs ORtg 114.2 DRtg 105.8, 30-4 record (record from https://www.nba.com/pistons/features/what-if-pistons-shocked-nba-blockbuster-trade-would-they-have-won-back-back-titles-if-theyd).

This data does suggest that the Pistons did better offensively with Aguirre instead of Dantley, at least during the 1988-1989 regular season. Of course, the main caveat to this data is that the ORtg and DRtg need to be adjusted for the opposition faced, but it remains highly suggestive.

I'm aware of that, but you have to keep in mind that:

1. There was a poor atmosphere in Pistons locker room, because Thomas didn't like Dantley (and vice versa). Given what we know about both, I'm shocked that people come with conclusion that it was Dantley who was selfish and poor leader.

2. Pistons started the season strong with 8-0 record (Dantley played in 4 of these games and got injured in 6th game). Pistons had 114 ORtg in these 5 games and Dantley averaged 22 ppg on 71 TS%. Without him, Pistons had two good offensive nights and two poor one (106.5 ORtg on average).

When he came back, he struggled. Pistons had only 105 ORtg from Dantley's comeback to the end of the year and Dantley averaged only 18 ppg on 59 TS% with 31 mpg.

They got better in 1989 though. In 18 games before Dantley trade, Pistons had 111 ORtg and Dantley averaged 19 ppg on 62 TS% in 34 mpg - he came back to the form.

In short - Pistons id well at the beginning, but started to struggle because Dantley came back from injury and wasn't 100%. They got better at the beginning of 1989 and during this process Dantley got traded. I don't think that the Pistons with healthy Dantley would be far worse than with Aguirre and they'd definitely win the title anyway.

3. Dantley was old and past his prime in 1989. 1987 Dantley and 1989 Dantley are not the same players.

[homecourtloss]

Also, isn’t it interesting how the Celtics’ dominance seemed to arise, not from outshooting the other team, but from taking more shots via rebounding and turnovers? I guess it’s not unlike the early aughts Pistons, except that they did it well enough to be the best team in the league for over a decade. But it’s worth noting that, compared to now, shooting variation was much lower, shooting efficiency was low which meant that there were more rebounds to fight for, and turnovers generally were higher so being better at them was a greater advantage. So they did the same thing as the aughts Pistons, just better and in an era that was more ideal for it. Like Babe Ruth compared to Gavvy Cravath.

I’ve been thinking about this over the past few years when variance in shooting has steadily increased given the amount of three-pointers teams shoot. There’s much more “luck” involved in today’s game in which really good shooters simply miss high Expected Value shots in one game and make them in the next. Obviously, a best of 7 game format helps mitigate for extreme luck as does the fact that there are so many possessions per game, only 10 players on court at a time meaning each player has more influence in outcomes than in most other team sports aside from certain examples like a QB in football or pitcher in baseball and even then, a guy like LeBron has more influence since he plays both sides of the ball.

To dominate in today’s game, you have to overcome this fluctuating variance, and it’s not easy to do so. The fact that the Lakers this year had a dominant post season run despite not being “built optimally” for the era of space and threes (i.e., not a high volume 3 point shooting team with not many knockdown shooters, played non-spacing bigs, etc.) was especially impressive to me, both offensively (wound up making threes anyway and generated enough of them) and defended opposing offenses incredibly well other than a few games against Denver and Miami.

[sansterre]

Bump for the #57 team, the 1982 Boston Celtics!

I've posted an explanation of my new team/stat breakdown in the two most recent teams. Basically, it's a definition of O-Load (Usage but including assists in the calculation) and an explanation of me adjusting all the per game stats by pace for context.

[WestGOAT]

Bump for the #57 team, the 1982 Boston Celtics!

I've posted an explanation of my new team/stat breakdown in the two most recent teams. Basically, it's a definition of O-Load (Usage but including assists in the calculation) and an explanation of me adjusting all the per game stats by pace for context.

Interesting, how did you calculate pace/possessions for older teams?

[sansterre]

Bump for the #57 team, the 1982 Boston Celtics!

I've posted an explanation of my new team/stat breakdown in the two most recent teams. Basically, it's a definition of O-Load (Usage but including assists in the calculation) and an explanation of me adjusting all the per game stats by pace for context.

Interesting, how did you calculate pace/possessions for older teams?

BBR does have pace for everyone. You can't get it in individual games, but it does have a pace rating listed for the 1960 Boston Celtics (for example).

I'm pretty sure it's just an estimate, but that's as good as we're gonna get

[WestGOAT]

Bump for the #57 team, the 1982 Boston Celtics!

I've posted an explanation of my new team/stat breakdown in the two most recent teams. Basically, it's a definition of O-Load (Usage but including assists in the calculation) and an explanation of me adjusting all the per game stats by pace for context.

Interesting, how did you calculate pace/possessions for older teams?

BBR does have pace for everyone. You can't get it in individual games, but it does have a pace rating listed for the 1960 Boston Celtics (for example).

I'm pretty sure it's just an estimate, but that's as good as we're gonna get

You are right average pace for each team is available for the regular season.

I've been collecting playoff team game logs, and they aren't available for older teams. It would have been very interesting to see these numbers since it's a common consensus that pace slows down in the playoffs, and varies per team/series.

[70sFan]

I would also love to see pace numbers for all playoff series from 1950-80.

[sansterre]

Interesting, how did you calculate pace/possessions for older teams?

BBR does have pace for everyone. You can't get it in individual games, but it does have a pace rating listed for the 1960 Boston Celtics (for example).

I'm pretty sure it's just an estimate, but that's as good as we're gonna get

You are right average pace for each team is available for the regular season.

I've been collecting playoff team game logs, and they aren't available for older teams. It would have been very interesting to see these numbers since it's a common consensus that pace slows down in the playoffs, and varies per team/series.

Yeah. My playoff ORating and DRating calculations for those early teams are pretty much guesses based on 1) regular season pace of the two teams and 2) the average rate of pace decrease for playoffs (based on a random sampling of games) in the 70s (once we have pace data). It's very much a guesstimate.

[WestGOAT]

BBR does have pace for everyone. You can't get it in individual games, but it does have a pace rating listed for the 1960 Boston Celtics (for example).

I'm pretty sure it's just an estimate, but that's as good as we're gonna get

You are right average pace for each team is available for the regular season.

I've been collecting playoff team game logs, and they aren't available for older teams. It would have been very interesting to see these numbers since it's a common consensus that pace slows down in the playoffs, and varies per team/series.

Yeah. My playoff ORating and DRating calculations for those early teams are pretty much guesses based on 1) regular season pace of the two teams and 2) the average rate of pace decrease for playoffs (based on a random sampling of games) in the 70s (once we have pace data). It's very much a guesstimate.

Not a bad approach actually! It's definitely better than just a completely random guess

[70sFan]

BBR does have pace for everyone. You can't get it in individual games, but it does have a pace rating listed for the 1960 Boston Celtics (for example).

I'm pretty sure it's just an estimate, but that's as good as we're gonna get

You are right average pace for each team is available for the regular season.

I've been collecting playoff team game logs, and they aren't available for older teams. It would have been very interesting to see these numbers since it's a common consensus that pace slows down in the playoffs, and varies per team/series.

Yeah. My playoff ORating and DRating calculations for those early teams are pretty much guesses based on 1) regular season pace of the two teams and 2) the average rate of pace decrease for playoffs (based on a random sampling of games) in the 70s (once we have pace data). It's very much a guesstimate.

Do you know what algorythm basketball refernce use in pre-74 pace estimations?

[sansterre]

You are right average pace for each team is available for the regular season.

I've been collecting playoff team game logs, and they aren't available for older teams. It would have been very interesting to see these numbers since it's a common consensus that pace slows down in the playoffs, and varies per team/series.

Yeah. My playoff ORating and DRating calculations for those early teams are pretty much guesses based on 1) regular season pace of the two teams and 2) the average rate of pace decrease for playoffs (based on a random sampling of games) in the 70s (once we have pace data). It's very much a guesstimate.

Do you know what algorythm basketball refernce use in pre-74 pace estimations?

I do not. But I do know that Ben Taylor either supplied the formula, or contributed heavily to it.

But yeah, don't know.

[sansterre]

Bumping for team #56, the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder!

[homecourtloss]

Bumping for team #56, the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder!

Excellent writeup on OKC. It’s a shame Westbrook got injured in 2013 as that team was a monster all regular season, especially when it played well, i.e., really high ceiling. I would have loved to see them go against the 2013 Spurs that was much better than its 58 win record as you discussed in your list (bunch of missing games from Manu, Duncan, Parker, Kawhi, players only playing 28-32 mpg., etc.)

[Jaivl]

I DO NOT LIKE THAT WRITEUP. IT'S TOO MUCH TRUTH.