limbo wrote:How would one justify Kareem ranking behind Shaq in terms of peak?
You would really need to be high on Shaq's low post gravity and his ability to draw fouls (and mind you, Kareem was elite in both of those areas himself).
Kareem is more efficient as a scorer relative to his era, he is also more resilient as a scorer (has more range + not terrible from the FT line like Shaq was). I think Kareem was also a slightly more refined passer/playmaker. Shaq closed the gap by a significant amount at his peak but i would still give a slight edge to Kareem in that area fwiw.
And of course defensively you have to go with Kareem too, right? Just more consistent in his effort and would defend outside of the paint better than Shaq did...
Then we can start adding Shaq's annual 20-game RS hiatuses, questionable leadership, throwing tantrums etc. which makes him less manageable and adaptable of a player that isn't really someone you could count on for raising the morale of your squad. Although, i'm not entirely sure how good Kareem was in these areas...
I think Shaq's peak is one of the least 'portable' peaks among all-time great players... To maximize Shaq's impact as a player you need to put him in an environment with historically slow pace and terrible offenses that can't exploit his inability to defend outside the paint and play to his strengths defensively (paint clogging/deterrent and post defense). Putting Shaq on a top 3 team in terms of talent also helps...And coincidentally, that's exactly what happend from 1999 to like 2005...
You could argue Shaq himself was a big reason for why the league's landscape changed, to try and match up with his style, but you can't argue it was a mistake (also, a lot of it has to do with the time period lacking in elite shooting/guards, which made it difficult to implement a system and strategy which has basically become the norm 10-15 years later...)
If Shaq came into the league today, the league isn't scaling down in pace and trying to play post offense or 1on1 MJ style mid-range iso game... They would keep playing like they are now, and force Shaq to adapt to them... The only difference would be teams wouls go out of their way to sign one or two more Bigs, just to have something to throw at Shaq...
Your criticism about Shaq's defense is fair, but he does explicitly mention he is measuring dominance relative to era. So era portability does not matter to him for this exercise, only what they worth in the game they played in. I know he has mentioned before in a podcast with someone, that he believes Shaq could fair better in this era if he stayed at the weight he was at in Orlando.
Also to shed some light on why he thinks Shaq>Kareem at their peaks, it is reasonable to assume he is likely using some of his own metrics. Kareem had a offensive load of 39.7, Era-adjusted Box-creation of 7.4, era-adjusted passer rating of 4.4 (up from the 5.8 and 4.1 without the adjustment), a ScoreVal of 2.5, and a PlayVal of 0.3. He also had a Backpicks BPM of 5.2 (3.2 OBPM). These are good numbers but the fact that Shaq played more recently meant that his kickouts to shooters were often worth more points and also elite bigs typically created more (like Barkley, and Malone who he mentions in the Kareem vid), and therefore that gave him a chance to have more impact in his own era.
Now Shaq's numbers are the following for 2000. An offensive load of 43. An era-adjusted box-creation of 6.8 and era-adjusted passer rating of 5.1 (5.4 and 5.1 without adjustments), ScoreVal of 2.1, and a PlaVal of 0.3 He had a 7.3 Backpicks BPM (4.3 OBPM), so according to his BPM, he was better on offense and defense Shaq. These are only the regular season stats, but it likely gives you a look at his thinking.
It looks like Kareem relative to era might have been creating more, but as Shaq's kickouts were worth more points, and also he rates as a better passer. Shaq also had an rORB% of 5.7 compared to Kareem's 2.8, so he is making over double the impact on the offensive boards.
Btw, this isn't me arguing against, I am just giving you a glimpse into what he might be thinking. His Shaq video should do plenty more to let us know of his thoughts. And the PS values for these guys which I am having trouble accessing at the moment, could have been what swayed his thinking.
