Lowry's Trade Value

[druggas]

Hang his jersey in the rafters. That's one way to build a culture.

[Parataxis]

Beverley+Lou+Kennard or Kabengele+future 1st rounder+the 4 2nd rounders they got from Detroit. Not bad for an expiring Raptors fans.

How much help does Kawhi need?

Look, just get him Lowry, FVV, OG, Siakam, and Powell onto the Clippers, and that's a Championship level roster!

[Mansurton]

Beverley+Lou+Kennard or Kabengele+future 1st rounder+the 4 2nd rounders they got from Detroit. Not bad for an expiring Raptors fans.

How much help does Kawhi need?

Look, just get him Lowry, FVV, OG, Siakam, and Powell onto the Clippers, and that's a Championship level roster!

Sounds like a fair trade for PG, Beverly, Morris, LouWill, and Zubac!

[Duffman100]

That's disingenuous.

You quoted me... but I never wrote that he'd fall off a cliff.



[Note: I think that Toronto has built a really cool team. As something as nebulous as "culture" is... it sure seems like Toronto has built a solid foundation of hard-working players who are held accountable for wins and losses. And as its longest tenured player, Kyle Lowry deserves credit for part of that. In fact, the entire organization is run so well that even when it's top 20 PG is out for what amounts to an entire season of games... the team (regardless of bit pieces) wins at a 64% clip.]

The teams have been good. But a lot of that has Lowry's locker room impact all over it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-players-of-the-last-6-seasons/

Lowry from 2013/14 to 2019 is 8th most valuable player per Raptor +/-. If you look at WS/48, BPM, RPM, Vorp, Lowry is consistently ranked high in all of these analytics. Are these analytics perfect? Of course not. But when someone is consistently ranked amongst them, it raises an eyebrow.

Do I think a 35 year old Lowry will continue to be a top 20 player? Yes. Because there has been zero indication he's going to be anything but. He looked great last season and great in the playoffs.

Well, that's a statistic. And it tells me that while Lowry is 8th... Westbrook is 10th over the past 6 years.

I assume in that top NBA players poll... you're pushing hard for Westbrook right now and using that stat as evidence? Did you give Giannis a lower ranking because he was behind Kevin Love?

You are the one who brought up the 7 years and 77 missed games. I counter with the 7 years that show lowry is one of the most consistent and best players in the league.

You then move the goal posts again to fit your argument to ask me if I'm ranking people right now to match that 7 year slot that you randomly brought up.

You understand that you're consistently changing the goal posts to try and form some sort of argument... What it is, I really have lost track of at this point,

[AbeVigodaLive]

The teams have been good. But a lot of that has Lowry's locker room impact all over it.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-players-of-the-last-6-seasons/

Lowry from 2013/14 to 2019 is 8th most valuable player per Raptor +/-. If you look at WS/48, BPM, RPM, Vorp, Lowry is consistently ranked high in all of these analytics. Are these analytics perfect? Of course not. But when someone is consistently ranked amongst them, it raises an eyebrow.

Do I think a 35 year old Lowry will continue to be a top 20 player? Yes. Because there has been zero indication he's going to be anything but. He looked great last season and great in the playoffs.

Well, that's a statistic. And it tells me that while Lowry is 8th... Westbrook is 10th over the past 6 years.

I assume in that top NBA players poll... you're pushing hard for Westbrook right now and using that stat as evidence? Did you give Giannis a lower ranking because he was behind Kevin Love?

You are the one who brought up the 7 years and 77 missed games. I counter with the 7 years that show lowry is one of the most consistent and best players in the league.

You then move the goal posts again to fit your argument to ask me if I'm ranking people right now to match that 7 year slot that you randomly brought up.

You understand that you're consistently changing the goal posts to try and form some sort of argument... What it is, I really have lost track of at this point,

Nice try. But you're being disingenuous again. Or, you're just lying. Reread the thread... pssst... I'm not the one who brought up the "7 years" thing.

In fact, you can go back to your first response to my initial post on page one to see for yourself.

[Woodsanity]

No other team is gonna value Lowry as much as Raptors stans. It would be a pointless trade. No one is going to give the huge package the Raptors would want.

[Duffman100]

Well, that's a statistic. And it tells me that while Lowry is 8th... Westbrook is 10th over the past 6 years.

I assume in that top NBA players poll... you're pushing hard for Westbrook right now and using that stat as evidence? Did you give Giannis a lower ranking because he was behind Kevin Love?

You are the one who brought up the 7 years and 77 missed games. I counter with the 7 years that show lowry is one of the most consistent and best players in the league.

You then move the goal posts again to fit your argument to ask me if I'm ranking people right now to match that 7 year slot that you randomly brought up.

You understand that you're consistently changing the goal posts to try and form some sort of argument... What it is, I really have lost track of at this point,

Nice try. But you're being disingenuous again. Or, you're just lying. Reread the thread... pssst... I'm not the one who brought up the "7 years" thing.

In fact, you can go back to your first response to my initial post on page one to see for yourself.

Fair enough, I forgot I brought that up.

Either way, the rankings indicate that Lowry has had that impact for a long time. And has not really slowed down at all. So despite being 35, his trade value is still commensurate with someone who produces of that value.

If you want to argue contract at 30 million, expiring, etc okay. But for the actual value he gives you on the basketball court, he's a top 20-25 impact player and has been for quite some time.

[heezyo2o]

The thing with this view is that the Raptors fan assessment of Lowry has always been closer to the truth than the overall view across the league.

The Spurs and TWolves both needed point guards in 2017, and had space. They instead chose to go with Jeff Teague and Patty Mills instead. They would have been much better off with Kyle but couldn't see the reality of his value.

I tend to think the league hasn't really updated that view and is still pretty wrong about him.

How are you going to compare a $10million/year Patty Mills contract to the $30million Lowry got that year

[Texas Chuck]

Either way, the rankings indicate that Lowry has had that impact for a long time. And has not really slowed down at all. So despite being 35, his trade value is still commensurate with someone who produces of that value.

If you want to argue contract at 30 million, expiring, etc okay. But for the actual value he gives you on the basketball court, he's a top 20-25 impact player and has been for quite some time.

I think his on court value is definitely still a top 20-25 player maybe even a little higher--and by on-court I also mean all the off-court, culture type stuff you refenced.

But his trade value is definitely informed by his contract both in the amount he gets paid and that it only has this year remaining and to at least a small extent his age--though I think that tends to get overdone. Give me a great old player over a good 25 year old every day.


In other words I don't believe the Raps can recoup his impact in trade return. Which means unless the Raps are out of contention at the deadline and Lowry would like to play for something in the playoffs before returning to the Raps next off-season he's not going to get traded. But if that situation materializes I think the return will be relatively light in your eyes.

[AbeVigodaLive]

You are the one who brought up the 7 years and 77 missed games. I counter with the 7 years that show lowry is one of the most consistent and best players in the league.

You then move the goal posts again to fit your argument to ask me if I'm ranking people right now to match that 7 year slot that you randomly brought up.

You understand that you're consistently changing the goal posts to try and form some sort of argument... What it is, I really have lost track of at this point,

Nice try. But you're being disingenuous again. Or, you're just lying. Reread the thread... pssst... I'm not the one who brought up the "7 years" thing.

In fact, you can go back to your first response to my initial post on page one to see for yourself.

Fair enough, I forgot I brought that up.

Either way, the rankings indicate that Lowry has had that impact for a long time. And has not really slowed down at all. So despite being 35, his trade value is still commensurate with someone who produces of that value.

If you want to argue contract at 30 million, expiring, etc okay. But for the actual value he gives you on the basketball court, he's a top 20-25 impact player and has been for quite some time.

The funny thing is I don't think we're really all that far off from one another... we can pick-and-choose whatever metrics we want to use or give him more or less credit for a team that wins with or without him (and other key players)... but we both dig him and think he's been really good to great.

I just think a slight decline should be expected at age 35. You believe he'll be at his absolute peak. We can probably leave it there... unless you want to bring up something I didn't do for a 3rd time.

[Anticon]

The thing with this view is that the Raptors fan assessment of Lowry has always been closer to the truth than the overall view across the league.

The Spurs and TWolves both needed point guards in 2017, and had space. They instead chose to go with Jeff Teague and Patty Mills instead. They would have been much better off with Kyle but couldn't see the reality of his value.

I tend to think the league hasn't really updated that view and is still pretty wrong about him.

How are you going to compare a $10million/year Patty Mills contract to the $30million Lowry got that year

Because they play the same position and the Spurs would have been a better team had they signed Lowry? It's not rocket science. Lowry wanted to go there and might have taken a Spurs/state tax/no Canadian tax discount also.

But that's also my point - the league thinks he's overpaid and overvalued so they go with a perceived higher value for dollars player. But then become a worse team as a result.

[reload141]

Just thinking about a Smart/Lowry pairing and how it would bring down the RealGM servers....

[Anticon]

Just thinking about a Smart/Lowry pairing and how it would bring down the RealGM servers....

Might be the first ever NBA fight over who gets to draw a charge

[heezyo2o]

The thing with this view is that the Raptors fan assessment of Lowry has always been closer to the truth than the overall view across the league.

The Spurs and TWolves both needed point guards in 2017, and had space. They instead chose to go with Jeff Teague and Patty Mills instead. They would have been much better off with Kyle but couldn't see the reality of his value.

I tend to think the league hasn't really updated that view and is still pretty wrong about him.

How are you going to compare a $10million/year Patty Mills contract to the $30million Lowry got that year

Because they play the same position and the Spurs would have been a better team had they signed Lowry? It's not rocket science. Lowry wanted to go there and might have taken a Spurs/state tax/no Canadian tax discount also.

That's like saying why don't they sign any max player since it would help them. Don't know the Spurs salary cap situation, but $20 million is a huge difference. And at the time, they were probably planning on giving Kawhi a max extension

[hippesthippo]

I expect it would be similar to what the Thunder just got for Chris Paul: 2 average starters and a middie first.

[Marty_Budda]

How much help does Kawhi need?

Look, just get him Lowry, FVV, OG, Siakam, and Powell onto the Clippers, and that's a Championship level roster!

Sounds like a fair trade for PG, Beverly, Morris, LouWill, and Zubac!

No thanks. That’s basically playoff P and 4 piles of crap.

[grindtime22]

The raptors will trade him wherever he wants to go. If he wants to go to the clippers and save them, I would do Zubac, and all the pick swaps they have with the thunder and a Traded player Exception. Steve Balmer would do it , The CBA allows it, but it would hard cap the clippers next season and only allow them to sign players at around 4 million or something like that.

That being said, there isnt a fair offer out there that trades lowry to a contender, and only a contender would even want him.

I think you are mixing things/rules together and blending them into your own CBA.

The CBA doesn't allow that kind of trade right now.

Which rule is preventing clippers from offering a TPE? I could be wrong, its probably the most complicated thing in the CBA

a TPE isn't really something you offer. It is just something that is kind of created when you take less salary back. The salary matching requirements are still in effect. The teams that are taking on more salary either have had salary cap space or TPE's of their own. The Clippers are over the cap. They have no cap space. They also don't have a 30 million dollar TPE. The only way the Raptors get a giant TPE trading Lowry to the Clippers, is if a 3rd team with cap space takes on the Clippers matching salaries.

[Tacoma]

Lowry has no meaningful trade value due to Lowry's high salary, expiring status, and TOR's absolute refusal to take on any potential 2021 cap hits as shown with how their dealt with Ibaka.

The market of teams truly interested in Lowry is already fairly thin, as many posters have already listed the ones most interested. Of those teams none have any assets or collection of expiring contracts able to match up to Lowry's. TOR basically missed their only chance to turn Lowry into something when PHX showed willingness to upgrade their PG position with a grizzled vet to help lead their young team, but went and got CP3 instead.

Lowry is a great player who can definitely help a team, but he's simply untradeable with his current contract and TOR's hellbent approach in getting Giannis (which is the right move).

If TOR has a treadmill season, i foresee Lowry asking to be bought out, and he'll prolly be willing to hand back a good chunk of cash so he can be let go early to hand pick his team. It's why i dont see Lowry being traded to some meh team for meager assets, Lowry has way too much cachet to be dumped wherever without asking his permission.

If Lowry gets bought out, i see him joining LAC. They have a BAE slot available (although theyll need to dump some salary due to being up on the hardcap, which they can use their DET SRPs for), and a desperate need at PG. Lowry will easily start over PatBev and become an immediate impact player and more importantly a LEADER.

LAL is another option, push Shroeder to the bench (he wont like it, but whatevs) and both the starting and bench units are gonna be lethal af.

Well my post aged poorly in less than an hour. Giannis re-signs, so basically the 2021 FA plan is pretty much a flop.

If TOR opens up their requirements in that theyre willing to take some bad 2021 money, they can potentially get something nice assets in return.

Your post aged poorly and into a non-recoverable death spiral the moment you raised the ridiculous notion that Lowry would be bought out.

[Vae Victus]

Your post aged poorly and into a non-recoverable death spiral the moment you raised the ridiculous notion that Lowry would be bought out.

Hey if Lowry wants to ride out into the sunset in Toronto like an old cowboy, i can totes respect that. But if Lowry thinks he's still an impact player who will help a team win a chip and Toronto treadmills due to the loss of talent over the years, why wouldnt he leave for one last hurrah? I mean, if Lowry thinks he can get one more big deal out of TOR, now that Giannis is off the table and 2021 FA is fairly slim pickings, sure why not stick around if securing the bag is more important.

[SA37]

I think Utah would offer Conley and a pick.

One expiring contract for another. Doesn't make sense for either team.

I'm not big on Conley, but think he's a lot better this year after early struggles with the Jazz

Yeah, it's not an overwhelming package, but it makes sense if 1) Toronto won't extend Lowry (regardless of whether the issue is money, years, or both) and 2) Lowry refuses to play or starts falling out of the rotation because Toronto is moving on (they have to make decisions on committing money to Terence Davis, Norman Powell, and Anunoby).

Toronto still gets its cap relief, gets a solid player in Conley, and gets a 1st round pick, maybe a 2nd rounder... not tons, but assets nontheless, while still acquiring a player who can contribute and avoiding locker room issues.