RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #31 (James Harden)

[LA Bird]

1. James Harden
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Reggie Miller

Haven't been following the last few rounds closely so it's a bit surprising Harden almost made it in last round. I would have thought it would be a while until he started getting any traction (like Schayes for example). Anyway, why Harden? Well, I made a thread a few weeks back on the top seasons between Harden and Durant when the latter was about to be voted in the top 20 and there was little separation between the two. We are now 10+ rounds past that. The standard criticism against Harden is playoffs vs regular season but since nobody thinks he is as good as his RS numbers anyway, this often results in a double counting of his weakness. Is Harden worse in the playoffs than in the regular season? Yes. But he would have been voted in a long time ago if we actually judged him based on his RS numbers - only 3 players in NBA history have led the league in WS more often than him. Harden has had some stinkers but he is only a poor playoffs performer overall compared to the crazy standards he set in the regular season. For example, he doesn't look bad compared to Kobe who was rightfully voted in the top 15

Postseason stats per 75 possessions
15-20 Harden (73 G): 28.2 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 turnovers, 58.6% TS
06-10 Kobe (79 G): 28.6 points, 5.2 assists, 3.2 turnovers, 57.0% TS

And the idea of Harden's playstyle being incompatible with championship basketball doesn't make any sense when we look at 2018. The Rockets played at a 10+ SRS level when healthy and dominated two solid playoffs teams before losing to the Warriors. If Durant's injury had happened that year instead of 2019, Harden would have been on the short list of MVP+FMVP winners and he would be showered with praise for being a winner like Kawhi was just the following year.

95 Pippen was one of the few times where a perimeter player had a case for DPOY. At 6'8 with a 7'3 wingspan, he was closer to a big on defense than guard sized guys like Havlicek or Frazier. Good ball handling and passing for a player his size and was the de facto point for a top offense. His main weakness is his scoring but we have voted in a similar player in Garnett already.
The last spot is between Reggie and Kidd and I could go either way here.

[LA Bird]

Let me show y'all a couple stats to chew on here.

Total Playoff Minutes:

Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359

Career Playoff WS/48:

Kawhi .2202
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Harden for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Harden, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Not saying Win Shares should decide anyone's opinion here on their own, but this is one of those situations where I find myself asking:

If I side with Harden here based on longevity, where am I saying that threshold was which would have shifted me to the opposite opinion? And it's hard for me to claim in all earnestness something along the lines of "I'd like to see the gap between their regular season career total production and achievement close by 50%". I just don't think there's anything along those lines that really matters to me enough to side against the guy who I think is better and has led 2 teams to titles rather than 0.

Total Playoff Minutes
Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359
Oscar 3673

Career Playoff WS/48
Kawhi .2202
Oscar .1783
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Oscar for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Oscar Robertson, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

[Doctor MJ]

Let me show y'all a couple stats to chew on here.

Total Playoff Minutes:

Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359

Career Playoff WS/48:

Kawhi .2202
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Harden for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Harden, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Not saying Win Shares should decide anyone's opinion here on their own, but this is one of those situations where I find myself asking:

If I side with Harden here based on longevity, where am I saying that threshold was which would have shifted me to the opposite opinion? And it's hard for me to claim in all earnestness something along the lines of "I'd like to see the gap between their regular season career total production and achievement close by 50%". I just don't think there's anything along those lines that really matters to me enough to side against the guy who I think is better and has led 2 teams to titles rather than 0.

Total Playoff Minutes
Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359
Oscar 3673

Career Playoff WS/48
Kawhi .2202
Oscar .1783
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Oscar for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Oscar Robertson, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Y'all just keep trying to catch others out in contradiction rather than actually pondering the point.

If you think Kawhi is better than Harden but are siding with Harden based on longevity, just really make sure you've thought through why that longevity makes the difference given that their playoff longevity looks comparable.

To your actual post, your analogy fails because:

1. Different era, different playoff length.
2. Oscar played on worse teams. While you are free to make the argument that because Oscar played on worse teams that played less in the playoffs, I'm obviously not making that argument given that I was siding with the guy who played less minutes.
3. I'm not using WS/48 to prove Kawhi was better than Harden, I'm using it to demonstrate that production-wise Kawhi was functioning pretty much as a star in his average minute at least to the point Harden was.
4. I never said I was arguing for Oscar over Kawhi was dependent on a major longevity edge, in fact I don't believe I spoke on that comparison at all, other people are making that argument about Harden over Kawhi. I'm the one urging caution about using that argument at all.
5. I've been pretty clear that I think Kawhi & Harden deserve to be slapped around for how badly they've treated the franchises around them and notably I haven't said that about Oscar.

[Jordan Syndrome]

1. Reggie Miller
2. James Harden
3. Rick Barry

Miller - Best offensive CORP, High peak, underrated defender, long prime and overperformed against all-time great defenses.

Harden - High peak, strong playoff performer while carrying and a clear offensive catalyst.

Barry - My favorite of the bunch of wings remaining. Nice scoring repoire.

[Jordan Syndrome]

Let me show y'all a couple stats to chew on here.

Total Playoff Minutes:

Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359

Career Playoff WS/48:

Kawhi .2202
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Harden for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Harden, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Not saying Win Shares should decide anyone's opinion here on their own, but this is one of those situations where I find myself asking:

If I side with Harden here based on longevity, where am I saying that threshold was which would have shifted me to the opposite opinion? And it's hard for me to claim in all earnestness something along the lines of "I'd like to see the gap between their regular season career total production and achievement close by 50%". I just don't think there's anything along those lines that really matters to me enough to side against the guy who I think is better and has led 2 teams to titles rather than 0.

Total Playoff Minutes
Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359
Oscar 3673

Career Playoff WS/48
Kawhi .2202
Oscar .1783
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Oscar for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Oscar Robertson, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

I enjoy both of y'all as posters but I just don't like what Doctor MJ is doing here.

Harden has routinely been in a position like Kevin Garnett was for most of his career where if he didn't play perfect his team would lose in the post-season. Kawhi was able to join a 60-win Toronto team and wasn't even the leader. Before that he played on very talented Spurs team which played excellent team ball, covered for Kawhi's weaknesses as a player and allowed him to do what he does best while filling in all the other cracks.

There is a big difference between being the entire offensive system like Harden and Nash compared to being Kawhi who does his thing and hopes the rest of the team figures it out.

Steve Nash career Playoff WS/48: .133

It really seems Doctor MJ "likes" Kawhi as a player more (or likes Harden less) yet Harden is much more similar to Nash and Curry than Kawhi is.

[Dr Positivity]

Kawhi is a better player than Harden hands down to me, but longevity as a superstar player isn't close either

[Doctor MJ]

I enjoy both of y'all as posters but I just don't like what Doctor MJ is doing here.

Harden has routinely been in a position like Kevin Garnett was for most of his career where if he didn't play perfect his team would lose in the post-season. Kawhi was able to join a 60-win Toronto team and wasn't even the leader. Before that he played on very talented Spurs team which played excellent team ball, covered for Kawhi's weaknesses as a player and allowed him to do what he does best while filling in all the other cracks.

There is a big difference between being the entire offensive system like Harden and Nash compared to being Kawhi who does his thing and hopes the rest of the team figures it out.

Steve Nash career Playoff WS/48: .133

It really seems Doctor MJ "likes" Kawhi as a player more (or likes Harden less) yet Harden is much more similar to Nash and Curry than Kawhi is.

And what, pray tell, am I doing Mr. Syndrome?

To your points:

1. Yes, I happen to be more impressed by what Kawhi has shown in the playoffs than Harden, and that's a tough thing for me to overlook. Longevity could make the difference and I'm saying I don't think it really does here, but bottom line is that so long as Kawhi looks better than Harden in the playoffs, Harden's going to have a tough uphill climb.

2. The argument that Harden's worn out by the regular season is a good one to point out. It's also true that Harden's really made a point of going all out in the regular season when he hasn't had to. Harden's been chasing MVPs for years and while I don't blame him for it, he can't really argue that in generally he's been worn out by the regular season because he needed to play like that to make the playoffs.

3. It is also true that he left his first team where he had other stars to split his work with and then ended up rejecting every star talent they brought in to play with him in Houston. I mean, if Harden likes to play in a way that wears him out for the legacy season, that's kinda on him, no? Of course, folks might disagree with that phrase "legacy season", but I'm not focusing on the playoffs because I've decided that's where legacy is really set, I'm focusing on it because that's what major American team sports have chosen to do.

4. I don't think I ever said Kawhi was a better offensive player than Harden. I will acknowledge though that the fact that Kawhi has made offense debatable makes the defense loom large for me.

5. Not really sure the emphasis on "likes". I think I've been pretty clear that both of these guys kind of disgust me and that I'm not looking to champion either one at present.

6. If I'm breaking type though by ranking Kawhi over Harden, well, cool. Glad I can still surprise folks.

[LA Bird]

If you think Kawhi is better than Harden but are siding with Harden based on longevity, just really make sure you've thought through why that longevity makes the difference given that their playoff longevity looks comparable.

There is no such thing as playoff longevity. We can compare regular season longevity because everybody has an equal opportunity to play 82 games. It's a level playing field. In the playoffs, a player's total minutes is heavily dependent on how many games their team plays. James Worthy logged more postseason minutes in his career than Garnett and it's not because he has better longevity. It's because he went to the Finals regularly while KG got bounced in the first round plenty of times. A player who only played 5 seasons but made the Finals every year does not have comparable longevity to a player who played 15 seasons but also only played 20 playoff series. It's not even close to being the same.

To your actual post, your analogy fails because:

1. Different era, different playoff length.

You are ignoring the underlying problem which I pointed above. If you think Oscar's era was too different, Moses and Garnett are newer examples of players with actual longevity who similarly lacked "playoff longevity" because their team often lost early.

3. I'm not using WS/48 to prove Kawhi was better than Harden, I'm using it to demonstrate that production-wise Kawhi was functioning pretty much as a star in his average minute at least to the point Harden was.

Everyone already knows Kawhi is a star. The problem is his longevity and availability.

5. I've been pretty clear that I think Kawhi & Harden deserve to be slapped around for how badly they've treated the franchises around them and notably I haven't said that about Oscar.

Ok, but that's a different conversation from the numbers we are discussing here.

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

[ZeppelinPage]

1. Kawhi Leonard - Some great playoff runs, finals performances, all-around incredibly productive and valuable player. Little over Harden & Pippen just from a production and value standpoint.

2. James Harden - Quite possibly the greatest offensive guard to play, and a bit underrated as a man-to-man defender. Playoff performance not as good as Kawhi, but narratives have seemed to create a sense he is bad in the postseason which I don't find to be true.

3. Scottie Pippen - Severely underrated by most, strong two-way player--I just doubt his overall impact is what Harden's offense brings or Kawhi's shooting/defensive two-way abilities.

[Dutchball97]

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

So you're just counting seasons? That seems like a fun way to rank players.

[Joao Saraiva]

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

So you're just counting seasons? That seems like a fun way to rank players.

It's not just about counting seasons. But counting their production is something valuable to take longevity into account. It's a part of the game and it's why Walton or Giannis haven't been mentioned yet.

I just think Harden hasn't been in an ideal situation to win it all. When CP3 got injured it was a potential massive hit on his legacy. Dethroning the Warriors would have done wonders for him and I don't even think we would be having this discussion if that didn't happen. On the other end Kawih defeats the Warrriors, but basically without Klay and KD, so the luck card played Kawih's way.

I'm not ready to discount that championship and no one should, he earned and played very well on that run. But I just can't completely ignore luck and talk about Kawih as a dinasty killer because of those finals.

[Dutchball97]

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

So you're just counting seasons? That seems like a fun way to rank players.

It's not just about counting seasons. But counting their production is something valuable to take longevity into account. It's a part of the game and it's why Walton or Giannis haven't been mentioned yet.

I just think Harden hasn't been in an ideal situation to win it all. When CP3 got injured it was a potential massive hit on his legacy. Dethroning the Warriors would have done wonders for him and I don't even think we would be having this discussion if that didn't happen. On the other end Kawih defeats the Warrriors, but basically without Klay and KD, so the luck card played Kawih's way.

I'm not ready to discount that championship and no one should, he earned and played very well on that run. But I just can't completely ignore luck and talk about Kawih as a dinasty killer because of those finals.

I think Harden is a valid candidate to be discussed and I'm going to add him to my ballot soon if he doesn't get in this round so it's not like I don't rate Harden. It's just that Kawhi played like the best player in basketball during the 2019 play-offs. There is a good argument to be made he was even better in 2017 before he got injured. I just don't think Harden ever quite reached that level in the post-season.

My gripe was with the "zero case to be made" comment. If someone thinks Harden should be much higher than Kawhi on this list that's fine but acting like that's the only valid way to think comes off as very condescending.

[Narigo]

Kawhi does not have the longevity to be rated this high imo. Kawhi missed the 2017 WCF because of injury. He missed most of 2018. He missed 22 games because of load management in 2019. He only played 70+ games twice for his career where teams posted winning records without him. Kawhi has played on above average teams for his entire career.

The Spurs 56-31 with a 61% win percentage from 2016-2018
The Raptors were 17-5 without Kawhi in 2019. They were only one win away from reaching the conference finals last year.

[Magic Is Magic]

Hello Real GM family, I am placing my Vote for #31

1. James Harden
2. Scottie Pippen
3. Kawhi Leonard

1. No one else left has Harden's offensive firepower. Harden dropped 36 ppg in the modern era! He also accumulated three scoring titles, an MVP, and an assist title. Very few have won both an assist and scoring title in their NBA career. Not to mention he is an 8x all-star, but the thing holding him back the most is lack of Finals appearances and rings. He only has 1 Finals appearance, although I feel if CP3 didn't get hurt in 2018 playoffs then Harden most likely wins his first title and possibly the FMVP. I can't count LeBron out completely in 2018 but if Chris Paul doesn't get hurt in 2018 then Harden likely wins his 1st ring (finally). Harden also has 6x all NBA 1st teams (more than some guys voted before him such as: Barkley, Erving, Dirk, KG, Moses, Robinson, Russell, Curry, Nash, Wade, and Ewing [and Pippen if people are voting him in]). So half the guys listed ahead of him.


2. Talk about a true swiss army knife of basketball talent. The ultimate #2 option for a vast number of reasons. Capable of 20 ppg during an era where most #2 options did not score 20 with consistency. Pippen also is a really good rebounder, and his team's offensive playmaker (assist leader for 3 title runs), the team's defensive anchor, and ultimate glue guy. He only had 2 seasons on his own as the #1 option but already his RS peak was 3rd in MVP voting (1994) so that matches Wade's best MVP run, and bests anything that Ewing, Miller ever did in only 1 year as the #1 option onf his team. And don't forge taht Pippen also has the 6 rings and he was an integral part of those rings. Additionally, Pippen's 8x all Defensive 1st teams is the second most all time and his 10 overall selections is 5th most in NBA HISTORY. Pip also has 3x 1st team all NBA selections, which is more 1st team all NBAs than: Wade, Stockton, Nash, Payton (2) and more than Miller and Ewing (0).

Lastly, his ability to take a 57 win team after losing the greatest player in the world for lowly Pete Myers and only dropping off by 2 wins to 55 in 1994 was beyond incredible. The Bulls lost their leader and best player but still kept on moving under Pippen leadership. I feel Pippen could have won a championship that year if he had someone good (but did not need Jordan) to win it. With a lesser talent than MJ he would have won, even with someone like Reggie or Mitch Richmond could have been enough for Pippen to win that year. Pippen also won over 30 playoff series which is good for 5th all time (if I'm not mistaken). Big time winner, big time longevity, and he really did it all. Pass, Shoot, Defend, Playmake, Lead.

3. Kawhi would be a lot higher if he didn't "load manage" and had more longevity. Only time will tell if this changes but I doubt it. He has done some extraordinary things such as winning back-to-back DPOY awards and 2x FMVP. If I recall correctly only Kawhi and Hakeem have ever achieved such a feat (B2B DPOY winner and winner of 2x FMVP). His 2019 run was also very impressive: 31/9/4 on splits of 49/38/88 (very close to entire 50-40-90 run on over 30 ppg en route to a FMVP. Who here left to rank has done anything close to a Finals run on 31/9/4 with near 50-40-90 splits?

If you value greatness on both ends of the ball then it would be hard to put many guys left ahead of Kawhi. He is elite on both ends, but again, his lack of longevity is hurting his resume along with him needing at least one regular season MVP or Scoring Title. Nearly all of the greats have them but him but I guess if we're voting in Ewing than peak doesn't matter that much so Kawhi should definitely be voted in.

[Magic Is Magic]

1. Kawhi Leonard - Some great playoff runs, finals performances, all-around incredibly productive and valuable player. Little over Harden & Pippen just from a production and value standpoint.

2. James Harden - Quite possibly the greatest offensive guard to play, and a bit underrated as a man-to-man defender. Playoff performance not as good as Kawhi, but narratives have seemed to create a sense he is bad in the postseason which I don't find to be true.

3. Scottie Pippen - Severely underrated by most, strong two-way player--I just doubt his overall impact is what Harden's offense brings or Kawhi's shooting/defensive two-way abilities.

Cool list, same 3 players I have listed too, we just swapped the order. Nice to see we can include strong peaks with longevity (Harden) and short careers with winning impact (Kawhi). They are both relevant skillsets and need to be talked about more at this stage.

[Joao Saraiva]

So you're just counting seasons? That seems like a fun way to rank players.

It's not just about counting seasons. But counting their production is something valuable to take longevity into account. It's a part of the game and it's why Walton or Giannis haven't been mentioned yet.

I just think Harden hasn't been in an ideal situation to win it all. When CP3 got injured it was a potential massive hit on his legacy. Dethroning the Warriors would have done wonders for him and I don't even think we would be having this discussion if that didn't happen. On the other end Kawih defeats the Warrriors, but basically without Klay and KD, so the luck card played Kawih's way.

I'm not ready to discount that championship and no one should, he earned and played very well on that run. But I just can't completely ignore luck and talk about Kawih as a dinasty killer because of those finals.

I think Harden is a valid candidate to be discussed and I'm going to add him to my ballot soon if he doesn't get in this round so it's not like I don't rate Harden. It's just that Kawhi played like the best player in basketball during the 2019 play-offs. There is a good argument to be made he was even better in 2017 before he got injured. I just don't think Harden ever quite reached that level in the post-season.

My gripe was with the "zero case to be made" comment. If someone thinks Harden should be much higher than Kawhi on this list that's fine but acting like that's the only valid way to think comes off as very condescending.

Well obviously here many players can be discussed. I just don't think overall Harden fails in the playoffs as much as people suggest.

I take playoff consistency as a big plus for any player, but I can understand sometimes it's just difficult in some situations to show that elevation due to some circumstances.

Kawih does have a case for sure.

[Doctor MJ]

If you think Kawhi is better than Harden but are siding with Harden based on longevity, just really make sure you've thought through why that longevity makes the difference given that their playoff longevity looks comparable.

There is no such thing as playoff longevity. We can compare regular season longevity because everybody has an equal opportunity to play 82 games. It's a level playing field. In the playoffs, a player's total minutes is heavily dependent on how many games their team plays. James Worthy logged more postseason minutes in his career than Garnett and it's not because he has better longevity. It's because he went to the Finals regularly while KG got bounced in the first round plenty of times. A player who only played 5 seasons but made the Finals every year does not have comparable longevity to a player who played 15 seasons but also only played 20 playoff series. It's not even close to being the same.

Okay, maybe look at it like this:

How many playoffs did each guy play 30 MPG?

Harden 10
Kawhi 7

Would you agree that represents a kind of playoff longevity? Team quality is irrelevant for this data other qualifying for the playoffs, and neither has had to do deal with their teams missing the playoffs.

I'm going to guess you don't have a problem with longevity from this perspective, and that you'd note that by what I just posted Harden has the edge there, but obviously it looks a lot smaller than the season-counting approaches have claimed based on RS.

To your actual post, your analogy fails because:

1. Different era, different playoff length.

You are ignoring the underlying problem which I pointed above. If you think Oscar's era was too different, Moses and Garnett are newer examples of players with actual longevity who similarly lacked "playoff longevity" because their team often lost early.

I'm pointing out all of the ways in which your analogy breaks and because there were so many I had to make a numbered list. It does not make sense to ignore everything else in my number list and then treat #1 as if it's in isolation.

5. I've been pretty clear that I think Kawhi & Harden deserve to be slapped around for how badly they've treated the franchises around them and notably I haven't said that about Oscar.

Ok, but that's a different conversation from the numbers we are discussing here.

I'm not the one who brought Oscar into this discussion. Once Oscar's in the discussion with the intent of showing that my analysis is inconsistent, I obviously need to include the additional factors that I factor in which make clear I'm being consistent.

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

Okay, and let's look back at playoff performances using an established standard candle, WS/48. Here's the list of Harden & Kawhi's top playoffs by that metric:

1. Kawhi 2017: .314
2. Kawhi 2016: .271
3. Harden 2020: .253
4. Kawhi 2019: .249
5. Kawhi 2020: .228
6. Harden 2015: .202
7. Kawhi 2013: .194
8. Harden 2011: .193
9. Kawhi 2014: .191
10. Harden 2019: .189

Seems pretty clear that Kawhi in general has been the stronger performer by this metric.

All caveats apply about WS/48 not being the holy grail of player evaluation. I completely respect an opinion of literally Harden > Kawhi, but if you think Kawhi > Harden but choose Harden based on longevity, I just think it has to be noted that that massive difference between longevity really disappears when you look solely at the playoffs.

[Dutchball97]

If you think Kawhi is better than Harden but are siding with Harden based on longevity, just really make sure you've thought through why that longevity makes the difference given that their playoff longevity looks comparable.

There is no such thing as playoff longevity. We can compare regular season longevity because everybody has an equal opportunity to play 82 games. It's a level playing field. In the playoffs, a player's total minutes is heavily dependent on how many games their team plays. James Worthy logged more postseason minutes in his career than Garnett and it's not because he has better longevity. It's because he went to the Finals regularly while KG got bounced in the first round plenty of times. A player who only played 5 seasons but made the Finals every year does not have comparable longevity to a player who played 15 seasons but also only played 20 playoff series. It's not even close to being the same.

Okay, maybe look at it like this:

How many playoffs did each guy play 30 MPG?

Harden 10
Kawhi 7

Would you agree that represents a kind of playoff longevity? Team quality is irrelevant for this data other qualifying for the playoffs, and neither has had to do deal with their teams missing the playoffs.

I'm going to guess you don't have a problem with longevity from this perspective, and that you'd note that by what I just posted Harden has the edge there, but obviously it looks a lot smaller than the season-counting approaches have claimed based on RS.

To your actual post, your analogy fails because:

1. Different era, different playoff length.

You are ignoring the underlying problem which I pointed above. If you think Oscar's era was too different, Moses and Garnett are newer examples of players with actual longevity who similarly lacked "playoff longevity" because their team often lost early.

I'm pointing out all of the ways in which your analogy breaks and because there were so many I had to make a numbered list. It does not make sense to ignore everything else in my number list and then treat #1 as if it's in isolation.

5. I've been pretty clear that I think Kawhi & Harden deserve to be slapped around for how badly they've treated the franchises around them and notably I haven't said that about Oscar.

Ok, but that's a different conversation from the numbers we are discussing here.

I'm not the one who brought Oscar into this discussion. Once Oscar's in the discussion with the intent of showing that my analysis is inconsistent, I obviously need to include the additional factors that I factor in which make clear I'm being consistent.

Anyway, this is how I see the debate between the two of them:
Harden clearly destroys Kawhi when we look at anything beyond a 4 year prime. Kawhi needs a far better top 4 seasons to make up for that deficit but he was never that dominant. In his top 4 seasons, Kawhi placed 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th in this board's POY votes vs Harden's 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 5th. 15/18/19/20 Harden is no worse than 16/17/19/20 Kawhi after we consider the latter's injuries (17) and missed games (19/20) and this means there is zero case for Kawhi when we include all of their other seasons as well.

Okay, and let's look back at playoff performances using an established standard candle, WS/48. Here's the list of Harden & Kawhi's top playoffs by that metric:

1. Kawhi 2017: .314
2. Kawhi 2016: .271
3. Harden 2020: .253
4. Kawhi 2019: .249
5. Kawhi 2020: .228
6. Harden 2015: .202
7. Kawhi 2013: .194
8. Harden 2011: .193
9. Kawhi 2014: .191
10. Harden 2019: .189

Seems pretty clear that Kawhi in general has been the stronger performer by this metric.

All caveats apply about WS/48 not being the holy grail of player evaluation. I completely respect an opinion of literally Harden > Kawhi, but if you think Kawhi > Harden but choose Harden based on longevity, I just think it has to be noted that that massive difference between longevity really disappears when you look solely at the playoffs.

To add on to this. Harden has played 128 play-off games, while Kawhi has only played 4 less games. The minutes are also close with a slight edge to Harden (4522 to 4358). Both also spent a similar amount of games first as high minute role players and later as the main star on their team. Kawhi has the edge in WS with 20 to 16.7 and VORP with 10.8 to 9.9.

Now it's fair to say Harden's signifcant regular season advantage is more important than Kawhi pretty much having the same play-off longevity as Harden. Something to note though is that Harden's defense is decent when he tries but it doesn't compare to Kawhi's impact on that end of the floor. At the same time Kawhi has a higher PER and TS% than Harden as well as the same OBPM in their play-off careers. Another thing is that Harden has a higher usage percentage, meaning more opportunities to rack up stats, yet he still ends up behind Kawhi in nearly every statistic.

[Cavsfansince84]

I just want to say that one guy I think should start getting a little traction is Isiah but I want to list a few reasons why which I think need to be said with regard to him often being overlooked.

1. One of the primary criticisms of Isiah now is length of prime and how some of his advanced stats compare to other atg's but I question how much of this is due to him willingly sublimating his game from about 87 on when AD came to Det in order to get him fulfill his role as one of the greatest scorers in nba history as well as the rise of Joe Dumars who was drafted a year earlier. Prior to that year Isiah had put up 4 straight 20/10 years(including setting the assist record for a season) and another year before that where he averaged 23ppg in a more up tempo offense where he was basically carrying it along with Kelly Tripucka. So from 83-86 the Pistons were top 5 in pace in the league(including #1 in ORtg in 84) then in 87 when AD joins their pace drops to 13th and then in 89 when they win their first title it had dropped to 25th out of 25 as Daly basically wanted them at a snail's pace to compliment their defense. So there's an obvious pattern there where Det goes from near the top of the league in pace to the bottom while Isiah's role in terms of needing to be the primary scorer and Dumars takes on a lot of the ballhandling duties which results in Thomas' numbers going down quite a bit.
2. Everything I just stated above obviously impact him both in terms of his raw/advanced stats and making all nba teams, especially given that from 87-93 MJ is in his prime and also there's a bevy of other great guards who came on the scene such as KJ, Price, Stockton and Dumars along with older guys like Drexler and Magic. So I think the end result was Isiah being seen as on the decline when during this time he led his team to 3 straight finals and 2 straight championships. So I question to what degree he actually declined during that 88-92 period despite him not making any all nba teams. When I look at Isiah I see a very long and productive prime.

So along with this we have a guy who had some great playoff series and was a great on court leader. So I just wanted people to maybe consider him a bit more and I think he will be making my ballot within the next 1-2 polls.

[Owly]

I just want to say that one guy I think should start getting a little traction is Isiah but I want to list a few reasons why which I think need to be said with regard to him.

1. One of the primary criticisms of Isiah now is length of prime and how some of his advanced stats compare to others but I question how much of this perception is due to him willingly sublimating his game from about 87 on when AD came to Det in order to get him fulfill his role as one of the greatest scorers in nba history as well as the rise of Joe Dumars who was drafted a year earlier. Prior to that year Isiah had put up 4 straight 20/10 years(including setting the assist record for a season) and another year before that where he averaged 23ppg in a more up tempo offense where he was basically carrying it along with Kelly Tripucka. So from 83-86 the Pistons were top 5 in pace in the league then in 87 when AD joins their pace drops to 13th and then in 89 when they win their first title it had dropped to 25th out of 25 as Daly wanted to be a slower defensive team. So there's an obvious pattern there where Det goes from near the top of the league in pace to the bottom while Isiah's role in terms of needing to be the primary scorer and playmaker goes down quite a bit as Dumars is also a good ball handler.
2. Everything I just stated above obviously impact him in terms of his raw/advanced stats and making all nba teams, especially given that from 87-93 MJ is in his prime and also there's a bevy of other great guards who came on the scene such as KJ, Price, Stockton and Dumars along with guys like Drexler and Magic. So I think the end result was Isiah being seen as on the decline when during this time he led a team to 3 straight finals and 2 straight championships. So I question to what degree he actually declined during that 88-92 period despite him not making any all nba teams. When I look at Isiah I see a very long and productive prime.

So along with this we have a guy who had some great playoff series and was a great on court leader imo. So I just wanted people to maybe consider him a bit more and I think he will be making my ballot within the next 1-2 polls.

1) From '87? Sublimating his numbers by ... upping his usage? Turning over the ball more (if anything suggests more on ball not less)? Scoring slightly less by missing more often?

Regarding pace I've heard it said here that pace isn't correlated with/beneficial to offenses.

2) Alternate reading ... Isiah's competition for guard/point guard accolades spots was weak for much of the 80s: Magic then ... Cheeks (hugely underrated impact player but not a scorer, a high profile pick, a "star" and his impact stats weren't known at the time or even now [I recall Hollinger and Duncan putting him behind Toney - a scorer - in the Philly importance hierarchy??]) then who? At the 2 eventually young MJ, Moncrief [again more defense and all round than a scoring star], the Westphals, Williamses, Archibalds, Thompsons and Gervins were declined, injured, retired or a combination of the above by the time Isiah really emerges.

Also he's getting the benefit of an expansion to a third team and still no appearances, no MVP consideration.

It also seems a touch ... iffy ... to cite him nobly dropping the pace whilst citing raw "20/10" seasons, the assist record at face value.


edit: I read a table badly so using these wrong inputs led nowhere real. It is left visible as a record of what was said but crossed through so it is clear that the below is wrong.
I̶'̶v̶e̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶i̶c̶e̶d̶ ̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶'̶s̶ ̶o̶u̶t̶l̶i̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶s̶ ̶p̶e̶a̶k̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶t̶o̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶.̶.̶.̶ ̶u̶n̶u̶s̶u̶a̶l̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶p̶l̶i̶t̶s̶.̶
̶A̶t̶ ̶h̶o̶m̶e̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶4̶3̶.̶9̶ ̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶g̶o̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶c̶i̶r̶c̶a̶ ̶1̶7̶9̶9̶.̶9̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶a̶s̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶6̶5̶2̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶s̶.̶
̶O̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶4̶6̶.̶4̶ ̶f̶i̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶g̶o̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶g̶a̶m̶e̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶c̶i̶r̶c̶a̶ ̶1̶9̶0̶2̶.̶4̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶s̶e̶a̶s̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶4̶7̶1̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶s̶.̶
̶
̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶v̶e̶r̶y̶ ̶s̶l̶i̶g̶h̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶a̶g̶g̶r̶e̶s̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶c̶o̶r̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶ ̶(̶2̶4̶.̶6̶ ̶u̶s̶a̶g̶e̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶2̶3̶.̶6̶)̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶i̶s̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶p̶l̶a̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶l̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶(̶1̶1̶ ̶m̶i̶n̶u̶t̶e̶s̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶)̶.̶
̶
̶T̶h̶o̶m̶a̶s̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶0̶.̶3̶6̶2̶2̶4̶2̶3̶4̶7̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶t̶a̶l̶ ̶f̶g̶'̶s̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶o̶m̶e̶.̶
̶
̶T̶h̶o̶m̶a̶s̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶0̶.̶2̶4̶7̶5̶8̶2̶0̶0̶2̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶t̶a̶l̶ ̶f̶g̶'̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶.̶
̶
̶R̶e̶m̶o̶v̶e̶ ̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶'̶s̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶(̶1̶7̶9̶9̶.̶9̶ ̶-̶ ̶3̶0̶9̶ ̶h̶o̶m̶e̶;̶ ̶1̶9̶0̶2̶.̶4̶ ̶-̶ ̶
̶P̶r̶o̶p̶o̶r̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶n̶ ̶I̶T̶ ̶b̶a̶s̶k̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶o̶m̶e̶:̶ ̶0̶.̶4̶3̶7̶3̶1̶9̶7̶4̶
̶P̶r̶o̶p̶o̶r̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶n̶ ̶I̶T̶ ̶b̶a̶s̶k̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶h̶i̶m̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶:̶ ̶0̶.̶3̶0̶0̶8̶8̶1̶5̶6̶4̶
̶
̶
̶T̶h̶e̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶o̶,̶ ̶f̶w̶i̶w̶ ̶(̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶W̶-̶L̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶n̶o̶i̶s̶y̶)̶,̶ ̶D̶e̶t̶r̶o̶i̶t̶'̶s̶ ̶h̶o̶m̶e̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶(̶w̶h̶e̶r̶e̶ ̶I̶s̶i̶a̶h̶'̶s̶ ̶b̶i̶g̶ ̶a̶s̶s̶i̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶c̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶n̶)̶ ̶i̶s̶,̶ ̶I̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶,̶ ̶u̶n̶e̶x̶c̶e̶p̶t̶i̶o̶n̶a̶l̶ ̶2̶6̶-̶1̶5̶ ̶(̶o̶u̶t̶s̶c̶o̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶p̶p̶o̶n̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶b̶y̶ ̶5̶ ̶p̶o̶i̶n̶t̶s̶)̶,̶ ̶I̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶i̶r̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶ ̶r̶e̶c̶o̶r̶d̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶r̶e̶l̶a̶t̶i̶v̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶s̶t̶r̶o̶n̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶2̶0̶-̶2̶1̶ ̶(̶t̶y̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶p̶p̶o̶n̶e̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶o̶a̶d̶)̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶o̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶I̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶l̶o̶o̶k̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶t̶o̶ ̶i̶t̶.̶
̶
̶D̶r̶a̶w̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶r̶ ̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶c̶l̶u̶s̶i̶o̶n̶s̶.