RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 (Scottie Pippen)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 (Scottie Pippen) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:04 am

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. ??


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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:07 am

1st vote: Scottie Pippen
With Pettit, Mikan, Curry, and now Harden, already off the table, I'm pretty set on Pip as my #1 pick here.

Was he a great scorer? No, he wasn't......but he was a good one.
Was he a great rebounding SF? No, he wasn't......but he was a [really] good one.
Was he a great playmaking SF? Here I'd hedge toward yes. Not Lebron-level, or Bird-level either; but REALLY damn good in this regard. A stronger feature than his scoring or rebounding, imo.
Was he a great defensive SF? Duh.

Add all those things up, and this becomes somewhat the ultimate utility knife, and someone who is pretty portable on excellent teams, too. He's got the rep of the GOAT #2 for how he meshed with Jordan to form a dynasty.
He didn't mesh half-bad [at least in terms of play-style] with a contender/near-contender Rockets team, despite being arguably past his prime.
Then he meshed well as a MAJOR contributor with a contender-level Blazer team [despite being more definitively past his prime].

The end result has left him 13th all-time in playoff WS (NBA and ABA) and 8th in playoff VORP [since 1973]; he's 45th and 24th, respectively, in the rs in those metrics.
In his late prime and early post-prime, his league rank in RAPM was 6th in '97, 21st in '98, tied for 30th in '99, still solid [+2.5] in '00.
His rs pseudo-APM rank in '94-'96 were 18th, 5th, and 4th in the league.

And overall 15 seasons of actual "value added" for his career.


2nd vote: Jason Kidd
Let me be the first to break the ice on another longevity giant. I could be swayed off of him. As I said above there are a number of names I'm tossing around, and this region of my list is very fluid. Although I'd like to see Pippen get this spot, I'd be more or less content with any one of Baylor, Kidd, Harden, Havlicek, or Gilmore, too.


3rd vote: Elgin Baylor
Have been tossing around a lot of names [the circa-30 region of my ATL is VERY much a floating order.....I could see going a lot of different ways]. But I've decided I'm going with Baylor.
I think he's often dinged [around here] for being clearly a tier below his teammate Jerry West.......but West went in 19 places ago, so I don't think it's unreasonable at all to give Elgin some serious consideration here.

Ironically, I feel like his '62 campaign in particular exemplifies how good he was. This was the year he was mostly away from the team in service for the Army Reserves: so he didn't get to work-out or practice with the team, and only got to play a limited number of games [when allowed away]. Fun story as to how big a deal Baylor was to fans: apparently the box-office would get calls ahead of Laker games asking if Baylor was playing that night......and games he dressed for averaged ~3,000 more fans [iirc] than the ones he missed.

Despite the unusual circumstances, Baylor averaged an absurd 38.3/18.6/4.6 per game.
Yes, pace was crazy. But still, even in pace adjusted per 100 possessions this came to an estimated 33.6 pts (@ +1.34% rTS), 16.3 reb, 4.1 ast, while playing a ridiculous 44.4 mpg.
And it's hard to ascribe only small impact to this: the Lakers were 17-15 (which would be on pace for 43-44 wins in an 82-game season) without him, but 37-11 (on pace for just over 63 wins in an 82-game season) with him. Adding 20 wins to an already decent team is no small achievement (I believe the SRS difference was similar in proportion; like +4 or thereabouts iirc).

This is also the year Baylor averaged 40.6 ppg (@ +3.1% rTS), 17.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in the NBA Finals against Russell and the Celtics, taking them to 7 games (and losing game 7 by just 3 pts). This was the series in which [in game 5] Baylor scored an efficient 61 pts, while also grabbing 22 rebound [no one else not named Bill Russell was in within even 10 rebounds of him] in a 5-pt Laker victory.

And overall he's just got a lot of years in which he was really filling that stat-sheet, respectable WOWYR for this stage of the project, too. Led the Lakers to an unlikely finals appearance in his rookie year with really no noteworthy supporting cast, a number of accolades, and steady high-praise from contemporaries.
It's robust enough of a resume I've decided to go with him here.


I'm not quite ready for Miller yet, despite him being one of my all-time favorite players (I wore #31 for my highschool team, after Reggie). Though if it came to a runoff between him and Isiah, I'm going with Reggie. Vs Barry or Pierce, I'd have to think about it.
Of guys not on my ballot, Hondo wins vs basically anyone else.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#3 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Dec 17, 2020 1:08 am

Vote 1 - Scottie Pippen
Vote 2 - Rick Barry
Vote 3 - John Havlicek

As we get further along in the project the choices obviously become tougher, and these 3 guys are all very close to me. Pippen's value as an elite #2 is certainly impressive, especially for such a sustained period of time. His versatility on both ends of the floor really opened up the offense for jordan and his teammates along with a stifling defense. He was fairly efficient throughout his prime and while it dipped some in the postseason, he still consistently contributed in other areas to make an impact.

His play in 93-94 as the #1 option in CHI after jordan retired was also impressive:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/1994.html

He led the bulls to a 55-27 record with the 6th ranked defense in the league, eventually losing to the knicks in the conf semis in 7 games. Being able to keep that team afloat after the shock of losing jordan was no small feat. He also has above average longevity and solid durability in his prime which i value.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:03 am

#1 Elgin Baylor. I know there have been a lot of questions about Baylor taking more shots than the more efficient Jerry West but at his peak he was a force with his scoring, his rebounding, decent passer, good guy. His teams had a lot of team success but couldn't get past Bill Russell -- something which could be said for pretty much everyone else from his era. I just think he's the most talented long career guy remaining. Havlicek was his peer but Baylor was a better scorer, much better rebounder, and did it against teams that gamed more for him; Havlicek is the better defender but in this case I don't think it's enough.

#2 James Harden == Behind them, I probably should vote Harden as the most individually dominant player. The other individual do it all scorer and playmaker was Rick Barry but if I ignore leadership issues, I'd go Harden over Barry anyway and Rick was at least as big a pain to be around.

My 2nd pick is Scottie Pippen.

Best remaining big is probably Gilmore, Dwight Howard would be the main competition unless I'm forgetting someone. Maybe Robert Parish or Kevin McHale? I've heard Lanier's name come up but eyetest, he was a somewhat lazy, passive defender and the stats (outside of outlier season 1974) don't indicate anything different to me . . . either the individual ones or the team defensive Drtg.

Best remaining forward is Pippen, I would take him for almost any team with any shot of going anywhere over Rick Barry who I think of as a supertalented locker room problem. Like a moderately inefficient Harden, but Harden's efficiency is what gets him in this high despite his issues. Havlicek was also inefficient, especially in the 60s. One of the rare players who got better (or the league got worse, or both) after he hit age 30. Still I have Pippen as a better playmaker, rebounder, defender, and not that far behind as a scorer.

Gervin is the best scorer left. I will look at him v. Reggie Miller who was more efficient on lesser volume. His trouble is he brings almost nothing else (decent rebounding and good shotblocking for a wing but which didn't translate to good defense); of course, neither did Miller. George was much more highly rated while playing (ppg v. efficiency always tends to skew publicly toward PPG; usually way more than justified); Reggie had a much longer career.

At PG there is Jason Kidd who brings great defense, good (but in my opinion often greatly overrated) playmaking, and poor shooting through his prime, greatly improving in his old age as he tried to do less, took more 3's, and played less defense. Gary Payton gets you a lot more points but also without great efficiency, maybe better man defense but not the GOAT PG rebounding that was a bit of a game changer with Kidd and Kidd was the better playmaker. Isiah would be the 3rd guard in most people's mix, underrated tough defender, overrated scorer, good playmaker, I don't think he's up yet.

Trying to think who I am missing. Great defenders like Mutombo and Bobby Jones but Mutombo has bad hands, Jones is the Manu Ginobli of forwards with limited ability to stay out on the floor for his NBA career, same for Kawhi except Kawhi also seems to have locker room issues and his defense waned as his offense waxed. I would probably go for both Jones and Manu over Kawhi though I know Kawhi is already on people's radar. I'd rather have less minutes a game but a consistent rotation than someone who doesn't play a lot of the games though another playoff run could certainly swing my perception.

1. Elgin Baylor
2. Scottie Pippen
3. George Gervin
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#5 » by Cavsfansince84 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:10 am

1. John Havlicek
-11x all nba 1st or 2nd team(4 1st)
-7x all nba defense(5 1st) and played 6 years before those were created
-7x top 10 in mvp voting
-8x champ and 1 fmvp(strong case in 69 as well averaging 28.1/11.0/4.4 on 52% ts but losing it to West)
-led 3 title teams in playoff scoring, assists and win shares(68, 69 and 74) which is something few other players have done(only other player to do this 3x is MJ)
-great all around skills(led Celtics in scoring 7x, apg 7x, win shares 6x)
-great chemistry/leadership/hustle guy

2. Rick Barry
-this is a very close one for me between Rick, Pippen, Harden and Baylor. I went with Barry mainly because at the end of the day he led a team to a title, has very good rs accolades(though close with Harden and Baylor) and imo was consistently the best in the playoffs out of this group. He also played in a tougher era for wings but was still very effective as a scorer and playmaker.
-11x all league(9x 1st team)
-6x top 5 in mvp voting
-led league in scoring in 67 with 35.6ppg with a ts add of +195
-overall very efficient volume scorer with career ts+ of 104(2% above league average) and 6 straight years with ts add over 120
-led aba/nba in playoff ppg 3x
-from 73-77 led the Warriors in ppg and apg while those teams ranked 11th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and 4th in ORtg showing how well he could orchestrate an offense
-epic 75 playoff run in which he won ring/fmvp

3. Scottie Pippen
-a big reason I am going with Pippen here over guys like Harden, Baylor and a couple others is that when it comes down to it he was as close to a defensive anchor as those Bulls teams had(with the absence of a good defensive center) and that was a dynasty which was built in large part on its defense. So imo its a big enough factor to put him above someone like Harden who while having 8 very strong regular seasons isn't impacting the game on defense and imo plays a style which is hard to win titles with while Pippen's is complimentary to most any team. I also respect how Scottie could turn that intensity up in the playoffs while still being able to score, rebound and play make while being very good in transition. He could help turn the momentum of games just with his defense because quite often those Bulls teams would get a 16-2 type run during a game and it would come off of forcing turnovers and turning them into easy baskets on the other end.
-7x all nba(3x 1st team)
-10x all defensive(8x 1st team)
-5x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 3rd)
-somewhat efficient scorer with career ts+ of 101. So slightly above league average.
-6th all time in steals
-36th in career bpm
-25th in career vorp
-13th in playoff win shares
-pretty good prime length
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#6 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:16 am

Vote:

1. Reggie Miller
2. John Havlicek
3. Scottie Pippen

Other preferences based on likely candidates:
Rick Barry
Kawhi Leonard

Explanation copied from last time as it's still basically the same guys, I'll put in spoilers so you don't have to read again if you don't want.

Doctor MJ wrote:
Spoiler:
Last couple times I believe I focused on Miller since he's my #1, but I think you guys probably get it at this point and just see now as too high for him. I get it. Ready to discuss him more when people are ready to think more about him.

I've been thinking a lot about Pippen lately and that eventually led me to put him on my list before Barry. Barry is a more proven alpha who excelled for longer in different team contexts, so there's a good case to be made for him, but Pippen is the one finding myself thinking I'm being too low on him. He's that classic #2 on offense, #1 on defense kind of guy who just seems like it'd be pretty easy to pair him with a scorer and go. And yeah, it only really ever worked like that with Jordan, and yeah that certainly hurts him in my ranking, but there really aren't a lot of guys like Pippen, and I don't think it's a coincidence that the Bulls had the success they had once they got a guy like Pippen.

Kawhi vs Harden clearly warrants explanation. I completely understand favoring Harden over Kawhi based on longevity, and frankly don't think you're crazy if you just plain think Harden is better than Kawhi. I can't say that I do though. I think Kawhi is the better all-around player and that it's easier to win championships with him than Harden, so the real question for me is whether longevity should give Harden the edge.

Let me show y'all a couple stats to chew on here.

Total Playoff Minutes:

Harden 4522
Kawhi 4359

Career Playoff WS/48:

Kawhi .2202
Harden .1776

I think it's easy to see regular season totals and credit Harden for a massive longevity edge, but playoff-wise, Kawhi's played about as much as Harden, and of course you can argue from stats like the second that his box score edge more than makes up for the difference.

Not saying Win Shares should decide anyone's opinion here on their own, but this is one of those situations where I find myself asking:

If I side with Harden here based on longevity, where am I saying that threshold was which would have shifted me to the opposite opinion? And it's hard for me to claim in all earnestness something along the lines of "I'd like to see the gap between their regular season career total production and achievement close by 50%". I just don't think there's anything along those lines that really matters to me enough to side against the guy who I think is better and has led 2 teams to titles rather than 0.

Where I potentially could have been swayed is in knocking Kawhi for his diva behavior that at this point I think is clearly a pattern and includes him leaving his 2 previous teams and messing up a culture on his current one, and believe me that is something that hurts him in some other comparisons.

But let's just say that the Beard has jumped the shark for me at present. Factoring these issues in doesn't exactly help Mr. Harden.

Alright, but I still do have Harden on my list, because at this point it's clear that I really need to have either him or Baylor on my list, so Harden.

Why am I so down on Baylor?

Here's the overarching thing: I believe that before serious analytics, everyone was essentially crawling in the dark trying to figure out what was really helping the team and what was actually hurting it. And I think that when you're a high primacy player it's easier than one might thing for all ones dogs not to be pulling in the same direction, and for those around you to see the issues but not recognize the extent of their effect.

My best estimation of Baylor is that he really struggled to create strong net impact on his teams the way that people assumed he did based on the overwhelming awesomeness of his game. The NBA had not had anyone like Baylor before and those who saw him rightly thought "That's the future of the league" when they saw the things his golden god body could do. But look...

last thread I made an argument looking at (arguably) Baylor's strongest year, ,'60-61, which is basically the opposite of cherry-picking. So now I'm going to pick a cherry. Not hiding the cherry-ness of this cherry, just want to bring it to folks attention, just want folks to mull it over how things were playing out.

Ready? Go back in time one more year to '59-60:

Baylor's Lakers had the worst offense in the league by ORtg and are the 2nd worst team in the league.

If you had asked folks at the time who the best offensive player in the world was, Baylor would have been on a very short list - and if (and when) we vote him in here, we're certainly keeping him on that list - so why wasn't the offense better with him?

I'm not demanding a response from people, but I think it's important for everyone to do more than just assume that his teammates were "the problem". I've had this philosophy ever since realize what it implied that Wilt's team offense was more effective with him as something other than a volume scorer. If a team scheme isn't working, how precisely is it failing?

I'm not claiming to have all the answers here, but when I recognize a guy seems to be a bit tone deaf to efficiency also happens to be on teams that are mysteriously inefficient, I tend to ask whether there's a connection.

In the end, I just don't think that Baylor had the kind of traction on impact that a guy like Harden does, and I don't think it's close. I also would probably give Harden the nod on prime duration at this point too. As mentioned, I don't love the position Harden has now put Houston in, but I don't think the gap between Harden & Baylor in terms of effectiveness as players is all that close.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#7 » by penbeast0 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:02 am

Why Miller over Gervin?
Doctor MJ wrote:...

Why Kawhi over Manu?
Dutchball97 wrote:...


(and yes, I fully expect to be on the unpopular side of these debates or, maybe, could be convinced to switch!)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#8 » by Magic Is Magic » Thu Dec 17, 2020 7:42 am

Placing my Vote for #32

1. Scottie Pippen
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Bob Cousy



1. Scottie: Talk about a true swiss army knife of basketball talent. The ultimate #2 option for a vast number of reasons. Capable of 20 ppg during an era where most #2 options did not score 20 with consistency. Pippen also is a really good rebounder, and his team's offensive playmaker (assist leader for 3 title runs), the team's defensive anchor, and ultimate glue guy. He only had 2 seasons on his own as the #1 option but already his RS peak was 3rd in MVP voting (1994) so that matches Wade's best MVP run, and bests anything that Ewing, Miller ever did in only 1 year as the #1 option onf his team. And don't forge taht Pippen also has the 6 rings and he was an integral part of those rings. Additionally, Pippen's 8x all Defensive 1st teams is the second most all time and his 10 overall selections is 5th most in NBA HISTORY. Pip also has 3x 1st team all NBA selections, which is more 1st team all NBAs than: Wade, Stockton, Nash, Payton (2) and more than Miller and Ewing (0).

Lastly, his ability to take a 57 win team after losing the greatest player in the world for lowly Pete Myers and only dropping off by 2 wins to 55 in 1994 was beyond incredible. The Bulls lost their leader and best player but still kept on moving under Pippen leadership. I feel Pippen could have won a championship that year if he had someone good (but did not need Jordan) to win it. With a lesser talent than MJ he would have won, even with someone like Reggie or Mitch Richmond could have been enough for Pippen to win that year. Pippen also won over 30 playoff series which is good for 5th all time (if I'm not mistaken). Big time winner, big time longevity, and he really did it all. Pass, Shoot, Defend, Playmake, Lead.

2. Kawhi would be a lot higher if he didn't "load manage" and had more longevity. Only time will tell if this changes but I doubt it. He has done some extraordinary things such as winning back-to-back DPOY awards and 2x FMVP. If I recall correctly only Kawhi and Hakeem have ever achieved such a feat (B2B DPOY winner and winner of 2x FMVP). His 2019 run was also very impressive: 31/9/4 on splits of 49/38/88 (very close to entire 50-40-90 run on over 30 ppg en route to a FMVP. Who here left to rank has done anything close to a Finals run on 31/9/4 with near 50-40-90 splits?

If you value greatness on both ends of the ball then it would be hard to put many guys left ahead of Kawhi. He is elite on both ends, but again, his lack of longevity is hurting his resume along with him needing at least one regular season MVP or Scoring Title. Nearly all of the greats have them but him but I guess if we're voting in Ewing than peak doesn't matter that much so Kawhi should definitely be voted in.

3. Bob Cousy: What didn't this guy do? 6x Champion, 8x Assist Leader, 13x All Star, 1x MVP, and 10x 1st team All NBA. I see people are putting Baylor over Cousy and I'm not mad at it, Cousy did have the better team after all. But it's hard to argue against 6 rings to Baylor's zero. 6 vs 0. And of course Cousy's MVP which Baylor never won.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#9 » by 70sFan » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:05 am

I know Cousy won MVP, but I don't see any case for him over Havlicek...
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#10 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:28 am

1. Kawhi Leonard - You win championships in the play-offs and while a bit lacking in regular season total stats, he's probably the strongest play-off performer left. If you buy into the Kawhi bashing that's been popular ever since he joined the Clippers and think he lucked into a title with the Raptors then I understand him being this high is hard. To me though, his 2019 run is a signature season that's surpassed by only a handful of people. His play-offs longevity and peak are great and that is what matters to me the most.

2. Elgin Baylor - Baylor's first few years are really, really good. It's a shame his prime was cut short due to injuries but he has enough of a resume that his strong peak makes up for it like with Kawhi. It's a bit difficult to determine how effective older players really were but around here seems right to me.

3. John Havlicek - Barry, Pippen and Harden all have arguments here as well (along with others that slip my mind probably) but I'm going with Havlicek here. I was leaning Barry at first due to his very strong 75 peak along with some other good years as a first option but Barry spending most of his prime in the relatively weak early ABA and shooting significantly worse in the NBA makes me a bit hesitant to vote for him. Havlicek is a winner, plain and simple. He was arguably the best player on the 68 and 69 title teams or at least a close second to Russell. Then he took the Celtics to another title in 74 as the clear best player on the team.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:36 am

penbeast0 wrote:Trying to think who I am missing.


Dolph Schayes?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#12 » by Fencer reregistered » Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:30 am

70sFan wrote:I know Cousy won MVP, but I don't see any case for him over Havlicek...


I participated in an earlier version of the project. Just jumping into this one now for the first time.

I'm big on intangibles, off-court factors and so on for a "greatest" list, and Cousy's are huge.

-- Strong leader of racial integration.
-- Founder of the players' association.
-- Popularizer of the fast break.

To the racial integration point, he was the leader of the team that was the integration pace-setter (and handed over leadership to Russell without complaint). He was also more active than that in specific cases, especially Chuck Cooper (who preceded Russell and KC Jones).


While I'm at it, although he's not going to come up for a long time, let me mention that Tom Heinsohn is the leader who got the Players Association accepted by the owners as a union, and I suspect his big salesy personality was important in getting it done. Heinsohn also, even if this is trivia more than a serious credential, had a 9-year career in which he NEVER missed the Finals, although he won in "only" 8 of those 9 visits.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#13 » by Hal14 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:49 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Elgin Baylor
2. John Havlicek
3. Isiah Thomas

Pettit was voted in several rounds ago, but IMO Baylor is slightly better than Pettit because Baylor was faster, better passer and better ball handler. And in terms of impact, Baylor was Dr. J before Dr. J. Baylor was Connie Hawkins before Connie Hawkins. Jordan modeled his game after Dr. J, as did Dominique Wilkins. Kobe and LeBron modeled their game after Jordan. Baylor was a pioneer. He paved the way for all of the explosive, big, strong, athletic wings to come later.

Also, Pettit's crowning achievement was his 50 point, 19 rebound game to led the Hawks to the win in game 6 over the Celtics to clinch the 1958 NBA championship. However, Russell only played 20 minutes that game because he had a severely sprained ankle suffered in game 3 of that series. Baylor meanwhile, scored 61 points and pulled down 22 rebounds to lead the Lakers to a win over the Celtics in game 5 of the 1962 NBA finals, so Baylor put up better numbers and did it against a healthy Russell who played all 48 minutes of that game. Baylor also played all 48 minutes that game. Jerry West? He had 26 points, 4 rebounds and 0 assists.

Baylor is the best all-around player left on the board IMO when you take into account his scoring, rebounding, passing, defense, ball handling and ability to score/defend both inside and outside.

Baylor and Pettit are both very close and it's definitely debatable which was the greater player. I think both have a case to be top 20 of all time. Scary to think how good they would have been if they played in the modern era with the advantage of 50 years of advances in basketball skills, more favorable rule changes, less days off between games, better equipment, better facilities, better weight training, better nutrition, better sports science, etc. Pettit was voted in several spots ago - it's Baylor's time now.

Baylor's teammate Jerry West is the no. 13 player on this list. And while I do have West ranked ahead of Baylor all-time, it is very close, so if West is no. 13 then Baylor could definitely be the no. 32 guy, considering that when they were teammates, Baylor was often times the better player. Lakers broadcaster Chick Hearn was quoted saying that Baylor was the best player he covered - not West. West is quoted saying that Baylor was better than him. Dr. J ranks Baylor as one of his top 5 players ever. Both Baylor and West made first team all NBA 10 times. Baylor was a better rebounder than West, a bigger, stronger more powerful player who could score and defend just as well inside as he could outside.

Anyone thinking Baylor isn't a top 32 player ever, I invite you to watch these videos:





Hondo is in my no. 2 spot here. 8 titles (8-0 in the NBA finals), Celtics all time leading scorer, outstanding defensive player, strong clutch player, 1 NBA finals MVP.

And yes, I do have Isiah ranked slightly ahead of Stockton and Nash. Isiah, Stockton and Nash - all 3 of them had good careers, and had good supporting casts. But of the 3, Nash is the only 1 who could never make it to the NBA finals and he's also the only one who couldn't play a lick of defense. Plus he struggled his first few years when the game was more physical, had less spacing and more geared towards big men/post play (a.k.a. the environment that Isiah played his whole career in and Stockton played his entire prime in) and wasn't until rule changes, no more hand checking, no more hard fouls, more spacing, the rise of the 3-point shot, D'Antoni's system - defense got much weaker in 05, etc. it wasn't until then that Nash dominated.

Stockton made it to the finals twice, but a) that was after Isiah retied and b) Stockton's Jazz team lost to Jordan's Bulls both times. Meanwhile, during the time when Stockton and Isiah were both in their prime, Isiah made it to 3 NBA finals, won 2 championships and would have been 3 if not for the phantom foul call on Laimbeer in 88, which even Pat Riley admits was a BS call:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2103545-pat-riley-admits-84-lakers-benefited-from-phantom-foul-vs-detroit-pistons

And while Stockton's team lost to Jordan's Bulls twice in the finals, Isiah's Pistons beat Jordan's Bulls 3 times in the playoffs, and beat Magic's Lakers in 89, would have beat Magic Lakers in 88 if not for Phantom Foul and beat Bird's Celtics in 88..

Yes, it's a team game and Isiah had a strong supporting cast, but Isiah was the Piston's best player his entire career except for the very end of his career when he had injuries and the Pistons were a joke before they drafted him.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#14 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:37 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Why Kawhi over Manu?
Dutchball97 wrote:...


(and yes, I fully expect to be on the unpopular side of these debates or, maybe, could be convinced to switch!)


Sorry, I didn't clock this was directed at me before the quote.

I'm pretty high on Manu (at least I think) but Manu never peaked as high as Kawhi in my opinion. Manu in 2005 was amazing but he still wasn't the best player on his team. In terms of post-season longevity Manu also doesn't have a large edge over Kawhi. I still have a couple of players ahead of Manu left.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#15 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 17, 2020 8:57 pm

70sFan wrote:I know Cousy won MVP, but I don't see any case for him over Havlicek...


Agreed. More specifically:

1. Cousy got historically overrated by the way things played out. There were literally people up through the time he retired who insisted he was the Celtics' MVP when this had been very far from the case for a very long time. Cousy's star rose with an offense that had Ed Macauley and Bill Sharman, and then when the team started winning defense with Russell many continued to think of Cousy as "the real MVP".

2. There are red flags about Cousy and the way his efficiency fell apart that just wasn't he case for other guys. Among guys born in 1928, both Dolph Schayes and Paul Arizin seem like they were better at basketball than Cousy to me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#16 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:35 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Why Miller over Gervin?
Doctor MJ wrote:...


Assuming just this one applies to me. For the record, while I think Kawhi's going to end up higher on my list than Ginobili, I haven't been intending to literally champion Kawhi over Ginobili. I've just been talking about Kawhi because he's been in the conversation. I haven't done a thorough analysis between the two for my 2020 list.

As for Miller over Gervin, I do think it's highly debatable, and I'm going to think on it some right now. Maybe I'll change my mind.

Clearly Gervin scored at higher volume while Miller had higher efficiency, and Gervin's got the edge in a stat like PER while Miller has the edge in WS & BPM as we'd thus predict, but Gervin was still efficient and Miller still scored at volume. The fact that traditionally people were more focused on volume than efficiency has everything to do with the accolade edge he had so I don't take that super seriously.

It's worth noting that Gervin wasn't a "middling efficiency" guy so much as he was a guy who was HUGE by TS Add for 4 years to start his NBA career. His TS Add was 240 or higher all 4 years, and in the rest of his career only broke 120 once. Miller by contrast broke 240 5 times (with higher peaks in the 300s) and broke 120 14 straight years while still being above 110 in the 2 after that.

Miller played a lot more in the playoffs of course. As I mentioned, he got to the Conference Finals 6 times, where as Gervin never made it. Team results aren't everything, and I'm reluctant to assume bad things about Gervin there, but I've got a ton of confidence in Miller's ability to fit in with great talent so I do have more confidence in him there.

I will note that by my count Gervin's teams 3 got upset in the playoffs 3 times without ever pulling off an upset themselves. Miller's teams by contrast had upset wins in 4 different series and two of those Conference Finals appearances happened only because of the upsets they pulled. I'd be remiss without acknowledging that Miller's teams were also at times the victim of upsets, but in general I think Miller and his teams earned the reputation of being tougher in the playoffs than in the regular season. Gervin certainly seems a strong performer in his own right, but it never translated into any upsets or deep playoff runs despite playing in a Western Conference often called weak. (Though granted, it's called weak when people criticize the Lakers, for everyone else, one of those WCF spots was essentially reserved for the Lakers, so was it really weak for them?)

Okay, so that's not really an argument and I'm open to hearing what you and others say, I'd still say I'm a bit more enthralled with Miller than Gervin, but it does seem to me that I need to be adding Gervin onto my list soon.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#17 » by 70sFan » Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:03 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Why Miller over Gervin?
Doctor MJ wrote:...


Assuming just this one applies to me. For the record, while I think Kawhi's going to end up higher on my list than Ginobili, I haven't been intending to literally champion Kawhi over Ginobili. I've just been talking about Kawhi because he's been in the conversation. I haven't done a thorough analysis between the two for my 2020 list.

As for Miller over Gervin, I do think it's highly debatable, and I'm going to think on it some right now. Maybe I'll change my mind.

Clearly Gervin scored at higher volume while Miller had higher efficiency, and Gervin's got the edge in a stat like PER while Miller has the edge in WS & BPM as we'd thus predict, but Gervin was still efficient and Miller still scored at volume. The fact that traditionally people were more focused on volume than efficiency has everything to do with the accolade edge he had so I don't take that super seriously.

It's worth noting that Gervin wasn't a "middling efficiency" guy so much as he was a guy who was HUGE by TS Add for 4 years to start his NBA career. His TS Add was 240 or higher all 4 years, and in the rest of his career only broke 120 once. Miller by contrast broke 240 5 times (with higher peaks in the 300s) and broke 120 14 straight years while still being above 110 in the 2 after that.

Miller played a lot more in the playoffs of course. As I mentioned, he got to the Conference Finals 6 times, where as Gervin never made it. Team results aren't everything, and I'm reluctant to assume bad things about Gervin there, but I've got a ton of confidence in Miller's ability to fit in with great talent so I do have more confidence in him there.

I will note that by my count Gervin's teams 3 got upset in the playoffs 3 times without ever pulling off an upset themselves. Miller's teams by contrast had upset wins in 4 different series and two of those Conference Finals appearances happened only because of the upsets they pulled. I'd be remiss without acknowledging that Miller's teams were also at times the victim of upsets, but in general I think Miller and his teams earned the reputation of being tougher in the playoffs than in the regular season. Gervin certainly seems a strong performer in his own right, but it never translated into any upsets or deep playoff runs despite playing in a Western Conference often called weak. (Though granted, it's called weak when people criticize the Lakers, for everyone else, one of those WCF spots was essentially reserved for the Lakers, so was it really weak for them?)

Okay, so that's not really an argument and I'm open to hearing what you and others say, I'd still say I'm a bit more enthralled with Miller than Gervin, but it does seem to me that I need to be adding Gervin onto my list soon.

I have two minor, but important corrections:

1. Gervin's teams actually made WCF three times: 1979, 1982 and 1983. It's still less than Miller, but it's significantly more than zero.

2. Spurs upset Seattle in 1982 and most would agree that beating 1979 Sixers (they coasted in RS) was also an upset. Spurs also lost some very tight series in 1978, 1979, 1983 and 1985.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#18 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:58 pm

70sFan wrote:I have two minor, but important corrections:

1. Gervin's teams actually made WCF three times: 1979, 1982 and 1983. It's still less than Miller, but it's significantly more than zero.

2. Spurs upset Seattle in 1982 and most would agree that beating 1979 Sixers (they coasted in RS) was also an upset. Spurs also lost some very tight series in 1978, 1979, 1983 and 1985.


Thank you 70sFan, I see what happened.

1. Gervin played in a time where there were less playoff rounds so what I was seeing is that Gervin's teams never won more than 1 playoff series in a given year.

2. Gervin's Spurs were the #2 seed, and thus I didn't think of them as an underdog, but you're right that Seattle had the better RS record.

Re: Beating '79 76ers as an upset. A worthwhile thing to bring up because of the stature of those 76ers, though I'll say that not only were the Spurs the better team by W-L record, the Spurs were actually the best SRS team in the entire league that year.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#19 » by penbeast0 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:37 pm

For these two it's pretty much all about scoring, neither adds much else. One thing, Miller's teams seemed to be set up to create looks for Reggie. Indiana ran a pick heavy offense running Miller's defender through off ball as well as on ball picks. The Spurs pretty much seemed to just assume Gervin could score on anyone and would run their normal offense just throwing it to Gervin whenever they needed a boost. I don't know if that is much of a factor, but it was my perception at the time.

I would also say that Gervin's volume scoring edge is exaggerated by the pace of the league and the Spurs within that league relative to Miller's Pacers. I did, however, feel that as a Washington fan, Gervin always seemed the more unstoppable of the two but that may just be a style thing; Gervin's scoring being more flashy.

I would also say that I feel Miller played with superior teammates for longer though I have not done serious analysis on it.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #32 

Post#20 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:09 am

penbeast0 wrote:For these two it's pretty much all about scoring, neither adds much else.


That's more or less true [mostly so, anyway]. However, delving into the nitty gritty is sort of what we do here, no?

Defensively, Reggie was passable: good length of a SG, not bad lateral quickness, very hard-nosed and consistent good effort [even in rs]. Weaknesses were that he wasn't overly strong, and not in any way a creative or brilliant defender.

Gervin in many ways is a similar athlete (excellent length for a SG, but kinda skinny/weak). Unlike Miller, though, he has a terrible defensive reputation. I'm not sure it's entirely earned; from my limited eye-test I didn't think he looked terrible [not in the way that Pete Maravich has looked terrible to me, for instance], but he was FAR from good, too.
To his credit, he's got multiple seasons averaging in the neighborhood of 2+2 [2 steals and 2 blocks] per 100 possessions. I don't think you can get that as a SG without putting in some effort defensively, particularly the blocks part. otoh, he does have a sort of high foul rate; so there may be some gambling and/or biting on fakes involved.

Gun to my head, I'm calling Reggie the better defender by at least a tiny margin.

Rebounding is a notable [though perhaps not enormous] edge to Gervin.

Passing/playmaking has got to go to Reggie. Gervin's a touch of a one-trick pony in this regard. Even though Reggie wasn't a good playmaker [at least in terms of passing], I'll note that he does have both a higher assist rate and a lower mTOV%.

And that's before we talk about the "Reggie Assist", but I'll get to that below....


penbeast0 wrote: One thing, Miller's teams seemed to be set up to create looks for Reggie. Indiana ran a pick heavy offense running Miller's defender through off ball as well as on ball picks. The Spurs pretty much seemed to just assume Gervin could score on anyone and would run their normal offense just throwing it to Gervin whenever they needed a boost. I don't know if that is much of a factor, but it was my perception at the time.


What has to be acknowledged, however, is that you can't just do what the Pacers did with Reggie using anyone. For example, you can't just run Gervin through that same pick-heavy offense and get the same result. You need a guy who knows the angles and timing on using screens [surprisingly not everyone figures that out], you need a guy with the motor to run all night [not everyone has that], and you need a guy who's an IMMEDIATE threat on any catch no matter how far from the basket [which forces not only HIS defender, but help defenders to cover him even if he doesn't have the ball (see Steph Curry for modern example).

It's his running thru screens and drawing two defenders [without even having the ball!] that created open looks for teammates (which he'd get no credit for in the box-score).


penbeast0 wrote: I did, however, feel that as a Washington fan, Gervin always seemed the more unstoppable of the two but that may just be a style thing; Gervin's scoring being more flashy.


There's no doubt Gervin was the better isolation scorer [and not particularly close]. All these considerations make "who's the better player?" an interesting question, though.

I don't think there's any question that Reggie had the superior longevity either, fwiw.


penbeast0 wrote:I would also say that I feel Miller played with superior teammates for longer though I have not done serious analysis on it.


I'd have to look into it more to say, but off the cuff I'm not sure I agree. I don't feel like Reggie ever had a great cast, for instance. And there were A LOT of years where the starting PG was someone like Vern Fleming or Haywoode Workman (and the best was probably an older Mark Jackson); the best C he EVER had was Rik Smits; the best SF he EVER had was probably Derrick McKey [or maybe a post-prime Chris Mullin].
Detlef Schrempf was likely the best player he EVER had as a teammate, and that was for about 4.5 seasons in an 18-year career.

Anyway, although I'm not voting for him yet, I'll comfortably take Reggie over Gervin, personally.
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