All in, the process, or middling through

[penbeast0]

It seems to me that if we are going to keep Westbrook and Beal, we need to get front court defense to be a legit contender. I don't see any of our bigs being an NBA defender and we don't need more scoring that much. So I would like to see a young for old deal to bring in a Gobert, Miles Turner, or similar defensive anchor.

I know Nate wants to deal Westbrook (and possibly Beal if we get a good offer) and go full Hinkie. That would be my second choice, maybe my first if we got a good deal for the two, but I think the team isn't willing to deal its stars for marketing reasons.

My fear is that we will do what seems likely, build around 2 older star guards with a front court that isn't NBA starter ready and be a bubble team fighting for the 8th spot until Westbrook and Beal decline or get unhappy.

[Eli Babak]

Evan Turner? What the ****? I think (and hope!) you mean Myles Turner...

I agree with you, something has to happen sooner than later. This team will play some entertaining basketball (offensively) but they're nowhere near contending. Right now we just have to wait and see how they play and what they should do (I prefer rebuilding). I'm also scared they'll extend Brooks because he is a nice guy.

[verbal8]

The Wizards look like a team with a range of 6th through 10th seed in the East for the next couple years. The protections on the pick in the Westbrook/Wall trade do give a narrow potential rebuild window for 22/23.

[nate33]

I don't think it's possible to acquire a third player who is good enough to put us into contention. I'm not certain Turner is an upgrade over Bryant at all. If he is, it's maybe 2 extra wins. Gobert is definitely an upgrade, but I only think he puts us into the 4-6 seed alongside teams like Toronto, Indiana and Philly. We'd have a pretty good shot at making the second round but that's it. And it would mean sacrificing essentially all of our young players. The players we didn't give up in the deal would have to be cut for cap reasons when their rookie contracts are up. Westbrook, Beal, Gobert and Bertans alone would cost upwards of $140M. The rest of the team would be minimum salary vets. It's a trap to end up paying not-quite superstar talent superstar money. We are already doing that with Westbrook and Beal. Gobert would be a third guy.

So since "all in" doesn't get us a title, I don't think it's an option. Our remaining choices are "muddle through" or "rebuild". I'm okay with muddling through. Lots of other teams have gotten good without first sucking - teams like Utah, Denver, Milwaukee and Toronto. You just keep drafting wisely, never squander your assets, and hope for a little luck by finding a gem later in the draft (guys like Giannis, Jokic, Siakam, Van Vleet, Gobert, Adebayo, Mitchell etc.)

I do think the "muddle through" strategy should probably involve trading Westbrook sometime between the Trade Deadline this year and the Trade Deadline next year, particularly if he has a Chris Paul-like revival in DC. On Beal, I will remain open minded. I'd like to keep him as long as we can be sure he doesn't walk in free agency in 2022. But because of the potential for him to depart, I'd be receptive to a trade that gives us younger assets under longer term control.

I'm also okay with a rebuild strategy if we can execute it by the Trade Deadline this year. The trick there is to be good enough that Westbrook and Beal have a high trade value, but then quickly be bad enough to land a high pick in the 2021 draft. I'm not sure that's possible.

[verbal8]

So since "all in" doesn't get us a title, I don't think it's an option. Our remaining choices are "muddle through" or "rebuild". I'm okay with muddling through. Lots of other teams have gotten good without first sucking - teams like Utah, Denver, Milwaukee and Toronto. You just keep drafting wisely, never squander your assets, and hope for a little luck by finding a gem later in the draft (guys like Giannis, Jokic, Siakam, Van Vleet, Gobert, Adebayo, Mitchell etc.)

I do think the "muddle through" strategy should probably involve trading Westbrook sometime between the Trade Deadline this year and the Trade Deadline next year, particularly if he has a Chris Paul-like revival in DC. On Beal, I will remain open minded. I'd like to keep him as long as we can be sure he doesn't walk in free agency in 2022. But because of the potential for him to depart, I'd be receptive to a trade that gives us younger assets under longer term control.

I'm also okay with a rebuild strategy if we can execute it by the Trade Deadline this year. The trick there is to be good enough that Westbrook and Beal have a high trade value, but then quickly be bad enough to land a high pick in the 2021 draft. I'm not sure that's possible.

I agree there isn't a real path to contention with Westbrook. There just isn't the option to add the necessary talent.

There seem to be 2 potential paths to contention. It really comes down to the improvement of the Wizards young players.

If the development/performance of the young players, is promising the Wizards need to acquire a youngish star to pair with Beal. This is hard to do, but getting assets for Westbrook is almost definitely required. Good drafting is key, either getting a superstar on a rookie deal or the assets to trade for one.

If the young players don't look promising, I could see a scenario where Westbrook/Beal have strong trade value, but the team isn't that far from "lottery contention". An advantage of the East being weaker is dropping out of the play-off chase isn't that far from a decent shot in the lottery.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

So since "all in" doesn't get us a title, I don't think it's an option. Our remaining choices are "muddle through" or "rebuild". I'm okay with muddling through. Lots of other teams have gotten good without first sucking - teams like Utah, Denver, Milwaukee and Toronto. You just keep drafting wisely, never squander your assets, and hope for a little luck by finding a gem later in the draft (guys like Giannis, Jokic, Siakam, Van Vleet, Gobert, Adebayo, Mitchell etc.)

I do think the "muddle through" strategy should probably involve trading Westbrook sometime between the Trade Deadline this year and the Trade Deadline next year, particularly if he has a Chris Paul-like revival in DC. On Beal, I will remain open minded. I'd like to keep him as long as we can be sure he doesn't walk in free agency in 2022. But because of the potential for him to depart, I'd be receptive to a trade that gives us younger assets under longer term control.

I'm also okay with a rebuild strategy if we can execute it by the Trade Deadline this year. The trick there is to be good enough that Westbrook and Beal have a high trade value, but then quickly be bad enough to land a high pick in the 2021 draft. I'm not sure that's possible.

I agree there isn't a real path to contention with Westbrook. There just isn't the option to add the necessary talent.

There seem to be 2 potential paths to contention. It really comes down to the improvement of the Wizards young players.

If the development/performance of the young players, is promising the Wizards need to acquire a youngish star to pair with Beal. This is hard to do, but getting assets for Westbrook is almost definitely required. Good drafting is key, either getting a superstar on a rookie deal or the assets to trade for one.

If the young players don't look promising, I could see a scenario where Westbrook/Beal have strong trade value, but the team isn't that far from "lottery contention". An advantage of the East being weaker is dropping out of the play-off chase isn't that far from a decent shot in the lottery.

Well with the stockpile of young guys we have, if there are several at the same position and we decide we clearly like one over the other, and somebody basically is just going to be left out and never given a chance to really get any run of develop, maybe package a couple of those guys who might have some value. Find another team that is in rebuild trying to accumulate as much young talent as they can to see what sticks like we've been doing, that has a vet they're willing let go to a team trying to get over the hump. Dealing young for old to a team looking to deal old for young.

Maybe some guys like Wagner, Bonga, Robinson, Mathews... If guys like Avdija, Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr, Bryant have cemented themselves ahead of them adventure just not really going to get a fair shake anyway. Package them for a veteran frontcourt defensive presence.

This does seem a bit of an Ernie move, and it's generally not the move I like, but in our situation it may be the way to go. Ideally we would have just signed a player better than Lopez.

Other than this the only real chance is hit on later draft pick that exceeds his draft position. In the draft thread I posted about a guy I have my eyes on GARUBA!

[prime1time]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

Also Thomas Bryant shot 40%+ from 3 last year and recently had 4 blocks in a preseason game. Who would we trade for in the front court? Some non shooting big who would clog the lane for Westbrook? Look at Westbrook's numbers post injury after the Covington trade. Rockets played 5 out and Westbrook dominated. Bryant is literally the perfect center for Westbrook. I expect Bryant to have a breakout year. So no, I don't trade for front-court defense.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

Also Thomas Bryant shot 40%+ from 3 last year and recently had 4 blocks in a preseason game. Who would we trade for in the front court? Some non shooting big who would clog the lane for Westbrook? Look at Westbrook's numbers post injury after the Covington trade. Rockets played 5 out and Westbrook dominated. Bryant is literally the perfect center for Westbrook. I expect Bryant to have a breakout year. So no, I don't trade for front-court defense.

I agree that significant stretches of 5 out ball gives us our best chance of maximizing our key strength - ie, let Westbrook attack the rim with fury (which also keeps him from shooting, thank god).

So, what is our best 5 out lineup?

I’ll start the conversation:

Russ
Beal
Matthews
Bertans
Bryant

With perhaps Neto and Brown filling in where needed. I actually really like what Neto does against bigger players- gets into their bodies, beats them to spots, flops when necessary.

Edit: I actually think Lopez isn’t a bad center option for 5 out.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

Also Thomas Bryant shot 40%+ from 3 last year and recently had 4 blocks in a preseason game. Who would we trade for in the front court? Some non shooting big who would clog the lane for Westbrook? Look at Westbrook's numbers post injury after the Covington trade. Rockets played 5 out and Westbrook dominated. Bryant is literally the perfect center for Westbrook. I expect Bryant to have a breakout year. So no, I don't trade for front-court defense.

I would say I agree with you. I am liking this team as is. I think Westbrook and Beal are ideal vet team leaders, plus Bertans. We have good quality youth developing and improving. We have a team of guys who play hard and seem team oriented, and a good culture seems to be emerging.

This off-season we can shed Lopez and Ish, draft a player like Garuba who would fit in perfectly to replace Lopez. Swap Winston for Ish.

2021/22 - Bryant, Wagner, Garuba, Bertans, Hachimura, Bonga, Avdija, Troy Brown Jr, Beal, Mathews, Robinson, Westbrook, Neto, Winston.


If any one of Avdija, Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr, Bryant, Bonga, Wagner, Mathews become a stud, with our '21 1st rounder ... We will be a challenger to be in the playoffs and "make some noise".

[nate33]

Maybe some guys like Wagner, Bonga, Robinson, Mathews... If guys like Avdija, Hachimura, Troy Brown Jr, Bryant have cemented themselves ahead of them adventure just not really going to get a fair shake anyway. Package them for a veteran frontcourt defensive presence.

What "veteran frontcourt presence" do you think you can acquire by trading Wagner, Bonga and Robinson? You are talking about guys in the Ayon Baynes, Nerlens Noel, Daniel Theis tier - guys barely better than Lopez. That's not going to make any difference in our outlook. I'd rather keep Bonga and see if he develops into something. Or trade him for a pick that could develop into something.

[nate33]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

I think this is the only realistic strategy.

The only thing I'd change is that I'd be willing to trade Westbrook once he has helped to change the culture. Having a 34-year-old Westbrook making $47M during the 2022-23 season isn't part of any plan for the future. I'd start sniffing around for Westbrook trades next summer. There will be a bunch of teams with cap room and all the top free agents have already extended. Obviously, Beal would have to buy into that, but I think Beal is smart enough to recognize that Westbrook is a short term fix, not a long term core piece. Trading him for cap flexibility and potentially some picks/prospects would make sense for the team going forward.

[NatP4]

I say just let it play out. Look at what Miami did last year. Acquired Jimmy Butler aka “guy that went to a bad fit and ended up the scapegoat”. He’s a player committed to winning that had a great positive influence on the culture in Miami. Miami acquired him at age 30. They also drafted a guy like Bam Adebayo at 14th overall and picked up Duncan Robinson undrafted. Robinson barely even played the year before in his rookie season, then played 30 minutes a game last year, same thing with Kendrick Nunn. Undrafted, then played 30 minutes a night for them. They also drafted Herro 13th overall and played him 25+ minutes a night as a 20 year old rookie.

That should be the blueprint for Washington. brought in the scapegoat star player. It couldn’t be more clear about the misfit in Houston, the franchise player is skipping training camp to go on a tour of America’s strip clubs.

Miami won a bunch of games with a handful of first and second year players. Play a guy like Garrison Mathews, he could be our Duncan Robinson. Play the rookie. Avdija can have an impact like Tyler Herro. Play Brown Jr and Hachimura and hope for some big 2nd and 3rd year leaps.

I’m not a big “trade for a 3rd piece” guy. The best teams in the east don’t have a bunch of star power, they have depth. Each of them has a list of 7-8 good players.

[Dat2U]

The Wizards likely foolishly went all in on keeping Beal by acquiring Westbrook. There's no current path for contending but there is a path to being competitive and playoff team which is probably the realistic goal. Do just well enough to keep everyone happy and provide some optimism for the future. That's Shepp's current job. He'll likely do a better job at it than Ernie but in reality, that's a very low barometer that's easily met.

Keeping John, letting him showcase for a few weeks and trading him for a smaller financial commitments (and not including a 1st rounder) would have made blowing things up so much easier. As of now...I would expect Shepp to double down on Westbrook/Beal get them more help to make the playoffs.

[NatP4]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

I think this is the only realistic strategy.

The only thing I'd change is that I'd be willing to trade Westbrook once he has helped to change the culture. Having a 34-year-old Westbrook making $47M during the 2022-23 season isn't part of any plan for the future. I'd start sniffing around for Westbrook trades next summer. There will be a bunch of teams with cap room and all the top free agents have already extended. Obviously, Beal would have to buy into that, but I think Beal is smart enough to recognize that Westbrook is a short term fix, not a long term core piece. Trading him for cap flexibility and potentially some picks/prospects would make sense for the team going forward.

Hit a home run on the 2021 1st by drafting a point guard of the future, trade Westbrook around draft night.

Make a good run at the conference finals this season which is a massive positive for the development of Brown, Avdija, Hachimura, Bryant, Bonga, and Mathews.

[prime1time]

You keep Westbrook and let him change culture. Complete rebuild would be a disaster. As would trading for from court defense. We go forward with the players we have. We go to the playoffs, we lose in the playoffs and then we run it back next year. Same thing happens. That offseason, resign Beal, go after a dynamic pg that can shoot and pair him with our young players who are no ready to make a go of it. That would be the year I go all in. By that point we might be able to run PG by committee instead of having an actual starting pg. Shooting, playmaking and solid defense at every position.

Also Thomas Bryant shot 40%+ from 3 last year and recently had 4 blocks in a preseason game. Who would we trade for in the front court? Some non shooting big who would clog the lane for Westbrook? Look at Westbrook's numbers post injury after the Covington trade. Rockets played 5 out and Westbrook dominated. Bryant is literally the perfect center for Westbrook. I expect Bryant to have a breakout year. So no, I don't trade for front-court defense.

I agree that significant stretches of 5 out ball gives us our best chance of maximizing our key strength - ie, let Westbrook attack the rim with fury (which also keeps him from shooting, thank god).

So, what is our best 5 out lineup?

I’ll start the conversation:

Russ
Beal
Matthews
Bertans
Bryant

With perhaps Neto and Brown filling in where needed. I actually really like what Neto does against bigger players- gets into their bodies, beats them to spots, flops when necessary.

Edit: I actually think Lopez isn’t a bad center option for 5 out.

Well we need players that can put the ball on the floor, rebound, playmake etc so I'm playing Advija over Matthews. One dimensional shooters are out. But at the same time, my ideal lineup would always be 5 out. So Matthews off the bench situationally, Neto over Ish, etc. This way you put maximum pressure on the opposing defense at all times. I know Matthews can shoot, but IMO he needs to do at least one other thing to get consistent minutes.

So I would go

Russ/Neto/Brown Jr
Beal/Neto/Brown Jr
Advija/Neto/Brown Jr
Bertans/Hachhimura/Advija
Bryant/Hachimura/Advija

Any combination of the above

[prime1time]

The Wizards likely foolishly went all in on keeping Beal by acquiring Westbrook. There's no current path for contending but there is a path to being competitive and playoff team which is probably the realistic goal. Do just well enough to keep everyone happy and provide some optimism for the future. That's Shepp's current job. He'll likely do a better job at it than Ernie but in reality, that's a very low barometer that's easily met.

Keeping John, letting him showcase for a few weeks and trading him for a smaller financial commitments (and not including a 1st rounder) would have made blowing things up so much easier. As of now...I would expect Shepp to double down on Westbrook/Beal get them more help to make the playoffs.

The difference between being a playoff team and a "contender" is a small one. It's one franchise player. So I disagree with your sentiments. You build it, then look for the final piece. You could have said 2 years ago that the Heat had no plan. Same with the Lakers 3 years ago. We need to create a winning culture and then try to attract elite talent.

[Dat2U]

I say just let it play out. Look at what Miami did last year. Acquired Jimmy Butler aka “guy that went to a bad fit and ended up the scapegoat”. He’s a player committed to winning that had a great positive influence on the culture in Miami. Miami acquired him at age 30. They also drafted a guy like Bam Adebayo at 14th overall and picked up Duncan Robinson undrafted. Robinson barely even played the year before in his rookie season, then played 30 minutes a game last year, same thing with Kendrick Nunn. Undrafted, then played 30 minutes a night for them. They also drafted Herro 13th overall and played him 25+ minutes a night as a 20 year old rookie.

That should be the blueprint for Washington. brought in the scapegoat star player. It couldn’t be more clear about the misfit in Houston, the franchise player is skipping training camp to go on a tour of America’s strip clubs.

Miami won a bunch of games with a handful of first and second year players. Play a guy like Garrison Mathews, he could be our Duncan Robinson. Play the rookie. Avdija can have an impact like Tyler Herro. Play Brown Jr and Hachimura and hope for some big 2nd and 3rd year leaps.

I’m not a big “trade for a 3rd piece” guy. The best teams in the east don’t have a bunch of star power, they have depth. Each of them has a list of 7-8 good players.

It doesn't really work like that. You can't apply another situation to ours and say "let's do that" because there situation is not ours. We don't have Erik Spoelstra. We have Scott Brooks. We don't have Bam Adebayo, one of the best two way bigs in the game, we have Thomas Bryant. We don't have an established culture of accountability, were in the infancy stages of trying to develop it. In short, we are not the Miami Heat and it would be silly to take their "blueprint" because we lack the solid foundation and structure they have in place.

[nate33]

As of now...I would expect Shepp to double down on Westbrook/Beal get them more help to make the playoffs.

He hasn't done it yet. With the exception of the John Wall trade, Sheppard hasn't sacrificed any youth or future assets for aging vets. The Wall trade is an exception because it was made for off-the-court reasons as much as on-court reasons.

[Dat2U]

The Wizards likely foolishly went all in on keeping Beal by acquiring Westbrook. There's no current path for contending but there is a path to being competitive and playoff team which is probably the realistic goal. Do just well enough to keep everyone happy and provide some optimism for the future. That's Shepp's current job. He'll likely do a better job at it than Ernie but in reality, that's a very low barometer that's easily met.

Keeping John, letting him showcase for a few weeks and trading him for a smaller financial commitments (and not including a 1st rounder) would have made blowing things up so much easier. As of now...I would expect Shepp to double down on Westbrook/Beal get them more help to make the playoffs.

The difference between being a playoff team and a "contender" is a small one. It's one franchise player. So I disagree with your sentiments. You build it, then look for the final piece. You could have said 2 years ago that the Heat had no plan. Same with the Lakers 3 years ago. We need to create a winning culture and then try to attract elite talent.

Who's this magical player were acquiring or attracting? And considering we're up against the lux tax, are they going to play for the minimum?

[prime1time]

We are closer than people think. We get a top-two pick last lottery and we'd be well on our way. But realistically speaking we are still one big move away. But I'm happy with where we are because a rebuild would have been a disaster. Tank for 4 or 5 years and hope. Look at the 76ers. They still have no clue how to win. I'd much rather follow the Heat model.