Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[sco]

I am super pleased where AK came in with the extension offer. It speaks volumes of how he sees Lauri and extensions. AK is a smart dude - probably has someone scouring the board here for our perspective . Pretending I know what AK is thinking, I see:

1) Lauri, last season (and so far in preseason) is playing like a bottom 10 starting PF (i.e. inconsistent 3pt shot, below average defender). $11M/year says that.

2) It's way too early to say PWill is a legit starting F talent, but to the optimistic eye, he looks like he could be.

3) If Lauri becomes consistently good this season, there will be a chance to keep him at fair market value. Based on what happened to many other FA PF's in recent years from the Bulls like Portis and Niko, their market value was lower than they thought.

[coldfish]

I am super pleased where AK came in with the extension offer. It speaks volumes of how he sees Lauri and extensions. AK is a smart dude - probably has someone scouring the board here for our perspective . Pretending I know what AK is thinking, I see:

1) Lauri, last season (and so far in preseason) is playing like a bottom 10 starting PF (i.e. inconsistent 3pt shot, below average defender). $11M/year says that.

2) It's way too early to say PWill is a legit starting F talent, but to the optimistic eye, he looks like he could be.

3) If Lauri becomes consistently good this season, there will be a chance to keep him at fair market value. Based on what happened to many other FA PF's in recent years from the Bulls like Portis and Niko, their market value was lower than they thought.

I was somewhat worried that AK would be an idiot when it comes to money. I take the $11m thing with a grain of salt but the fact that AK didn't just bend over and give Lauri a blank check is encouraging.

[ArtMorte]

Kuzma got 13m per year and Lauri is slightly better than him. I think a 4/60 would be kind of ideal. There probably are teams who would give him that if we go under it.

[ZOMG]

It will really be something to see when the Bulls lose Markkanen for nothing after he averages 22ppg and gets that 20 million dollar deal from someone.

[sco]

It will really be something to see when the Bulls lose Markkanen for nothing after he averages 22ppg and gets that 20 million dollar deal from someone.

A few thoughts on this. If Lauri has a great year like that, and ZOMG - I love your optimism, it would be a great situation for the Bulls. It would mean that Lauri has shown that meaningful elusive improvement that has been the source of much debate. I think under those circumstances, I (and likely the Bulls) would feel they have a top 10 PF and wouldn't mind matching.

But it's far more likely that Lauri averages 16ppg this season and shoots 3's at 36% or less. That guy isn't sniffing $15M/yr. and is replaceable by a MLE guy.

Also, he wouldn't be walking for nothing, he'd be walking and freeing up enough cap space for the Bulls to have 2 MAX slots in case the next pair of disgruntled stars want to go somewhere, or more likely, the cap space to trade for a disgruntled star and take on the salary of some bad contracts.

[Stratmaster]

Kuzma contract is the limit for Lauri, 13-14M per year.. Thats it, take it or leave it! Unless there will be sign&trade for bigger amount..
Even if they agree on middle there at 15M thats ok.. But on other hand, holy crap a lot for someone who hasnt proved nothing yet.

What had LaVine "proved" when he got 20 million?

That he could score at will

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[coldfish]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

[FriedRise]

It will really be something to see when the Bulls lose Markkanen for nothing after he averages 22ppg and gets that 20 million dollar deal from someone.

A few thoughts on this. If Lauri has a great year like that, and ZOMG - I love your optimism, it would be a great situation for the Bulls. It would mean that Lauri has shown that meaningful elusive improvement that has been the source of much debate. I think under those circumstances, I (and likely the Bulls) would feel they have a top 10 PF and wouldn't mind matching.

But it's far more likely that Lauri averages 16ppg this season and shoots 3's at 36% or less. That guy isn't sniffing $15M/yr. and is replaceable by a MLE guy.

Also, he wouldn't be walking for nothing, he'd be walking and freeing up enough cap space for the Bulls to have 2 MAX slots in case the next pair of disgruntled stars want to go somewhere, or more likely, the cap space to trade for a disgruntled star and take on the salary of some bad contracts.

16ppg at 36% 3P would be just around Frank Kaminsky's P36 numbers, and that guy is currently out of the league in the waiver wire. Lauri obviously has had better seasons than Kaminsky ever had in his career and is 4 years younger. So to extend or overpay, you'd be banking on upside, potential, and faith that Lauri can return to at least his rookie or sophomore version of himself and that the current Lauri is not who he is as a player.

[cjbulls]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

You are correct on all counts, but I think you understate the likelihood Lauri gets an offer this offseason which the Bulls don’t control.

Especially when the Bulls aren’t extending him and reports say they’re offering $11 million, he will be a target of opposing teams with FA dollars to spend.

[Stratmaster]

I can't take reading this thread anymore.

Lauri was handed a starting position by the Bulls. He has played 170 games and I believe started 169 of them, with the one outlier being when he returned from injury. He never had to earn it with his play, and has played at the level of a bench player.

As far as comparing stats, which by the way has nothing to do with whether the Bulls should pay Lauri, Lavine played 25 mpg his first season and 28 his 2nd,. Lauri 30 and 31.

Lavine started in less than half the games his first 2 seasons. He has earned his way up the ladder, worked and studied his ass off, and consistently improved throughout his career. He overcame an ACL tear and is an elite scorer.

This thread should be renamed the "Lauri excuse and strawman comparison" thread.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Jvaughn]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

[MrSparkle]

I think Kuzma’s better; that 40/3 with a player option sounds right for both sides. Lauri should seek the same. $20m salary demand is crazy IMO.

[coldfish]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

You are correct on all counts, but I think you understate the likelihood Lauri gets an offer this offseason which the Bulls don’t control.

Especially when the Bulls aren’t extending him and reports say they’re offering $11 million, he will be a target of opposing teams with FA dollars to spend.

I said earlier that its almost a guarantee that someone offers him $20m per year or more next summer.

Most of the Lauri fans wringing their hands about the thought of losing him are OK with spending that now. What's the point? The only thing you really gain by offering him $20m per year is preventing a max contract which is $27m per year for a guy like Lauri. If he jumps all the way up to being a max contract type player, that's great for Chicago and they match it.

I really don't see the benefit in offering him $20m per year right now.

$15m is where it makes sense, really for everyone involved. It will probably end up an overpay but that overpay is insurance against him blowing up and getting significantly more. At $20m, you might as well let him hit RFA. The downside is minimal.

If you don't sign him, I still think that the Bulls should shop him hard to avoid the situation where you either have to badly overpay him or lose him for nothing.

[cjbulls]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

You are correct on all counts, but I think you understate the likelihood Lauri gets an offer this offseason which the Bulls don’t control.

Especially when the Bulls aren’t extending him and reports say they’re offering $11 million, he will be a target of opposing teams with FA dollars to spend.

I said earlier that its almost a guarantee that someone offers him $20m per year or more next summer.

Most of the Lauri fans wringing their hands about the thought of losing him are OK with spending that now. What's the point? The only thing you really gain by offering him $20m per year is preventing a max contract which is $27m per year for a guy like Lauri. If he jumps all the way up to being a max contract type player, that's great for Chicago and they match it.

I really don't see the benefit in offering him $20m per year right now.

$15m is where it makes sense, really for everyone involved. It will probably end up an overpay but that overpay is insurance against him blowing up and getting significantly more. At $20m, you might as well let him hit RFA. The downside is minimal.

If you don't sign him, I still think that the Bulls should shop him hard to avoid the situation where you either have to badly overpay him or lose him for nothing.

Ok yes, I am in complete agreement here too. If your plan is to spend big money for Lauri, there should be no real fear of RFA. Let him play it out to prove your assumptions about his ascendancy and simultaneously hedge against injury risk.

The only deal now should be a value deal, as you point out.

[ZOMG]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

[MGB8]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

Yup. It's basically the same gamble we took with LaVine by not extending him and then letting him test RFA.

If Lauri plays well enough that he gets really good offers - well, then the Bulls are going to be in a tough position in terms of matching or not. If he doesn't play so well, then he's not going to get really good offers.

[coldfish]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

This was discussed earlier. Rookie contracts are value deals. Max contracts are frequently value deals. The people making more than the MLE but less than the max are usually bad contracts and screw their team over. The CBA effectively drives money away from young players and superduperstars into these guys. Regardless of what the "market" is, you usually end up paying more than the production you get.

If Markkanen doesn't improve, you could replace his production (15.7 PER, negative rpm) for the MLE so $15m would be an overpay. At $15m you are banking on a little improvement. At $20m, you are banking on a lot of improvement.

[Indomitable]

I can't take reading this thread anymore.

Lauri was handed a starting position by the Bulls. He has played 170 games and I believe started 169 of them, with the one outlier being when he returned from injury. He never had to earn it with his play, and has played at the level of a bench player.

As far as comparing stats, which by the way has nothing to do with whether the Bulls should pay Lauri, Lavine played 25 mpg his first season and 28 his 2nd,. Lauri 30 and 31.

Lavine started in less than half the games his first 2 seasons. He has earned his way up the ladder, worked and studied his ass off, and consistently improved throughout his career. He overcame an ACL tear and is an elite scorer.

This thread should be renamed the "Lauri excuse and strawman comparison" thread.

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

People are still stuck on the front office dubbing this man the next big thing. Garpax would have gave him 20 million as a starting point in my opinion.

[Jvaughn]

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If the Bulls don't sign him, he would be a restricted free agent next year. Like they did with Lavine, Chicago could match any offer for Lauri. If he signs the QO, he would be unrestricted but the Bulls could still offer more than other teams.

Effectively, the Bulls have him for 2 years if they want him. If Lauri does decide that he is fed up with Chicago he could throw a fit and demand out but if he is playing fantastic, it means that everything is going well so I struggle to understand how that plays out in reality.

This is where I am with it as well. I see very little upside to overpaying him now on the hopes that he will take some huge jump that we've expected since his rookie year. And if he does, then great. It will be better for the overall team success. Put the pressure on him to pull a Jimmy.

As someone mentioned strawmen... all this talk about the Bulls not "overpaying" Lauri is hilarious. Overpaying? 22 million per would be an overpay. 15-16 mil is far from that. That's his market value, easily.

I have no doubt Markkanen doesn't expect to get 20 million, but he also isn't gonna sign lowball offers like 11 mil.

I've said from the start he should take 15-16 million without a second thought. But if the Bulls refuse to give him that, they're stupid. That's a value deal.

$15-16 mil would still be a slight overpay to me. As it's already been brought up, there are MLE and below targets that give you the same production as him. I don't see what the rush is to pay him. He's not a top tier starter. Probably bottom third. Why should we invest a ton of money into someone who canon the hope that he'll finally figured it out?

Make him play for the contract and prove that he can be prodcutive. Otherwise, we're going to be immediately looking to shed that contract. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd say the odds are against him having a huge year. My guess is that he plays exactly the same, and you don't lose out on anything by waiting. If some team like the Knicks wants to still make him some huge offer, thank them for it.

[bullslas]

15 a year is what he should be getting. 3 years 45 million would be smart for him also. He is set for life, if he has lives up to the hype, he will get a big contract.