Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

[sco]

MIN tried to trade for Aaron Gordon.

Culver has looked good in preseason.

Pat can def play PF.

Lauri for Culver is the sort of reclamation project I'd sign up for at the deadline. Minny has got to be a haven for Finn's.

[PaKii94]

Wow looking at Kuzma's numbers I am even more disgusted. How does someone produce less and is less efficient than year 3 Lauri???

If healthy Kuzma producing less than year 3 Lauri is worth 3/40 mil. Year 3 Lauri is easily 3/45. Any minor improvement from that and it's easily 18 per. If Lauri goes back to year 2 then that's 20per. Any improvement from that and we are talking 25 per.

I would love to lock in Lauri at $20 right now. I think he's going to exceed year 2 this year (fingers crossed)

[cjbulls]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.

Lauri Markkanen, Chicago — $18,177,306

I still think Markkanen is a better player than we saw from him last season, although the injury situation is getting a bit concerning. Nonetheless, this price feels eminently fair. On a four-year deal it would pay Markkanen just north of $80 million. He’s young enough to provide some upside that he’ll outrun this contract, and the downside seems limited by the fact that stretch bigs aren’t going out of style any time soon.

Also, note that the Bulls’ cap sheet is clean enough that they should almost certainly do a declining money deal with Markkanen, paying him a big 2021-22 salary but with 8 percent year-to-year decreases.

https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

Yeah, this is why I am a bit distrustful of these analytics-based articles, but it’s the only one I found valuing Lauri against the rest of free agents.

His commentary does say he would “rush” to sign Anunoby at that price while for Lauri just that “it makes sense”. I’m guessing that’s his way of showing there’s a bigger gap than reflected in the numbers.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.



https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

I think Hollinger is very analytical oriented. and in that sense, high volume 3 point shooting carries more weight in this offense oriented NBA.

Obviously OG's defense is more valuable than Lauri overall but that's why they are close. People are severely underrating Lauri's current & future potential offensive output compared to OG.

So far in their careers (p36 minutes), Lauri scores more, rebounds more, assists more (<- and people already b*tch about Lauri's "lack of playmaking"), draws more fouls, is more proven with usage (and that usage is still low) while turning over the ball less. He is also much less assisted compared to OG (ie shot creation)

But OG got the defense to hang his hat on.

I disagree that Lauri's offense makes them close.

OG's an elite defender, a legit All-Defense candidate. And because he does the thing Lauri's supposedly best at -- shooting -- sufficiently well, he's much more impactful by any all-in stat I can think of (VORP, RPM, Net Rating).

You can definitely argue that Lauri has his hand in more pots offensively, but does he do anything above replacement-level right now?

[GoBlue72391]

If we don't extend Lauri today I expect us to trade him at the trade deadline to a bad team desperate for talent who can afford to overpay him in the offseason. If he has a bounceback year, even a modest one, some team is gonna throw the bag at him and I'd rather not be the team that has to decide to let him walk or match a $25M+ offer.

Last year the Hornets gave Terry Rozier $20M per, and he doesn't have youth, potential, flashes of stardom, and that "unicorn" lure that Lauri does (whether you believe that's real or imaginary, some talent starved team will take that chance). I'm a big believer in Lauri's talent, but I'd rather get something in return for him then let him walk for nothing. Hopefully we can meet in the middle around $15M, but I'm not counting on it.

Sent from my SM-S757BL using RealGM mobile app

[Chi town]

Only way I want Lauri back is if he’s the player we saw in the last preseason game for the whole season. He made a couple defensive plays. He created offense off the dribble and he made his 3s. He’s an offensive advantage at the 5.

That player is worth 20M and bringing back. Otherwise you trade him. Even if he hits his 3s this season but doesn’t show any other offensive output or creating then I’m trading him.

[ZOMG]

Only way I want Lauri back is if he’s the player we saw in the last preseason game for the whole season. He made a couple defensive plays. He created offense off the dribble and he made his 3s. He’s an offensive advantage at the 5.

That player is worth 20M and bringing back. Otherwise you trade him. Even if he hits his 3s this season but doesn’t show any other offensive output or creating then I’m trading him.

It's not just up to him. He needs to be featured in the offense, get down screens, and the ball needs to move.

This is why I'm worried that there might not be enough basketballs for the Bulls this season.

People expect Coby to have a huge role in the offense, Zach to do his thing and make himself an All Star, Wendell to get his touches at the FT line, Lauri to prove he can be the player we saw in the last PS game...

I dunno. Looks like somebody's gonna be disappointed with their role when it's all said and done.

[PaKii94]

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

I think Hollinger is very analytical oriented. and in that sense, high volume 3 point shooting carries more weight in this offense oriented NBA.

Obviously OG's defense is more valuable than Lauri overall but that's why they are close. People are severely underrating Lauri's current & future potential offensive output compared to OG.

So far in their careers (p36 minutes), Lauri scores more, rebounds more, assists more (<- and people already b*tch about Lauri's "lack of playmaking"), draws more fouls, is more proven with usage (and that usage is still low) while turning over the ball less. He is also much less assisted compared to OG (ie shot creation)

But OG got the defense to hang his hat on.

I disagree that Lauri's offense makes them close.

OG's an elite defender, a legit All-Defense candidate. And because he does the thing Lauri's supposedly best at -- shooting -- sufficiently well, he's much more impactful by any all-in stat I can think of (VORP, RPM, Net Rating).

You can definitely argue that Lauri has his hand in more pots offensively, but does he do anything above replacement-level right now?

I agree with everything you have said, I am just saying how the analytics influence things. I am a big proponent of defense but the league is tilted towards offense right now. OG does shoot decently well but at half the volume that Lauri does.

and that last line IS what gives Lauri value. If he increases his key skills to good/great/above replacement level while keeping everything else at replacement level (including defense) then he is more valuable than a niche (albeit really good) defensive player who is replacement level at everything else. but it is all based on potential and how you view it.


multifaceted offense+average defense>limited offense + elite defense

[PaKii94]

Only way I want Lauri back is if he’s the player we saw in the last preseason game for the whole season. He made a couple defensive plays. He created offense off the dribble and he made his 3s. He’s an offensive advantage at the 5.

That player is worth 20M and bringing back. Otherwise you trade him. Even if he hits his 3s this season but doesn’t show any other offensive output or creating then I’m trading him.

It's not just up to him. He needs to be featured in the offense, get down screens, and the ball needs to move.

This is why I'm worried that there might not be enough basketballs for the Bulls this season.

People expect Coby to have a huge role in the offense, Zach to do his thing and make himself an All Star, Wendell to get his touches at the FT line, Lauri to prove he can be the player we saw in the last PS game...

I dunno. Looks like somebody's gonna be disappointed with their role when it's all said and done.

I think Donovan can keep them in line. Also it has come time that Lauri has to speak up and demand the ball when it isn't coming his way. He needs to internalize that he is a top talent on the team and play like it instead of kumbaya let's all hold hands and work together equally offense because the other players (Zach, Coby) aren't going to be shooting equally regardless.

[thedarkstark]

If we don't extend Lauri today I expect us to trade him at the trade deadline to a bad team desperate for talent who can afford to overpay him in the offseason. If he has a bounceback year, even a modest one, some team is gonna throw the bag at him and I'd rather not be the team that has to decide to let him walk or match a $25M+ offer.

This except i dont think it has to be a bad team, maybe a younger borderline playoff smaller market team like Memphis or Atlanta will be inclined to trade for him because they'd have trouble luring him in the offseason without bird rights.

[MrSparkle]

He has the same kinds of team defense lapses as almost every player on this team... and he can't protect the rim. Other than that, I guarantee Donovan doesn't have an issue with anything he does on that side of the ball. He's a 7 footer who can stay in front of a wide variety of guys. The ONLY big on this team who can do that.

Let me rephrase, he isn't a versatile defender, he can only play one position, PF, and he gets killed by quick guys (which is common in today's NBA) and can't switch on to 3s or 5s without getting killed. His help defense is poor as is his defensive awareness. He's a minus defender by any metric (man defense, help defense, or versatility).

Yeah, he's not the worst defender in the league or anything, but he's hurting you there not helping you, and you could probably slot in Gafford, Carter, Williams, Hutchison, or Porter into his role in the defense at any point and improve it. Not that those guys are necessarily 1:1 replacements for all his skills (even on defense) but they all bring at least some real strength relative to Lauri whom doesn't really bring anything on that end.

Gafford, Carter, Hutch, and even Porter are trash offensively they are a liability on offense. Cannot believe you mentioned them as alternatives when theres no solution if Lauri leaves. If your letting Lauri walk, you better tank properly for a top 5 pick for Suggs.

Are you suggesting that Lauri is the difference between a tank job and a ... good team? Cause I can think of 30 MLE replacements for Lauri. In fact, I think the team is better if Otto, Thad and PW split the PF minutes. It's just an on-going hope for #7-pick/February Lauri that keeps this charade going.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

The only person I’ve seen analyze this RFA class is Hollinger (former Grizzlies exec and stats-based analyst). His numbers-based analysis pegged Lauri’s value at 18.1, which is interesting to me only because I would think numbers wouldn’t favor him.



https://theathletic.com/2194510/2020/11/13/contract-extensions-what-bam-tatum-fox-and-rest-of-class-of-2017-are-worth/?amp

It's confusing to me that Hollinger values Lauri at 18M and Anunoby at *only* 21M. There's a massive gulf between the two imo, the latter being a top 3 individual defender and a guy you can plug into just about any starting unit.

Yeah, this is why I am a bit distrustful of these analytics-based articles, but it’s the only one I found valuing Lauri against the rest of free agents.

His commentary does say he would “rush” to sign Anunoby at that price while for Lauri just that “it makes sense”. I’m guessing that’s his way of showing there’s a bigger gap than reflected in the numbers.

To your point, I'm guessing that if OG had asked for Lauri's 20M, he'd have been extended 2 weeks ago.

[kulaz3000]

Only way I want Lauri back is if he’s the player we saw in the last preseason game for the whole season. He made a couple defensive plays. He created offense off the dribble and he made his 3s. He’s an offensive advantage at the 5.

That player is worth 20M and bringing back. Otherwise you trade him. Even if he hits his 3s this season but doesn’t show any other offensive output or creating then I’m trading him.

It's not just up to him. He needs to be featured in the offense, get down screens, and the ball needs to move.

This is why I'm worried that there might not be enough basketballs for the Bulls this season.

People expect Coby to have a huge role in the offense, Zach to do his thing and make himself an All Star, Wendell to get his touches at the FT line, Lauri to prove he can be the player we saw in the last PS game...

I dunno. Looks like somebody's gonna be disappointed with their role when it's all said and done.

Just focusing on the bolded part of what you said, for the majority of Lauri's time with the Bulls, I've been advocating the importance of getting a savvy point guard to help him get the ball, to get him in the right spots and to know when he needs a touch, little things that a smart veteran point guard would know. He really hasn't had that type of presence in his NBA career yet.

That being said though, there is also a point where he is so efficient that he organically commands the ball, where the team has no better option than to give him the ball and feature him on offence, and he really isn't there yet. The fact is, he just hasn't gotten better.

There are so many players who come into the league raw, they play a specialized role the first few years, then they work their games to the point where there is simply no choice but for the coaching staff to work them in the offense more, and for the team to respect their expanded role.

You could make a strong argument that so-far in his career, he has been spoon-fed plenty of touches, with the first two seasons garnering decent success, but last season, despite a differing role he had to play on offense, he still didn't step up and adjust, instead he kind of let that disrupt his entire season.

I'm a huge fan of Lauri, and he seems like a great kid, and I'm rooting for him, but it's almost at that point where I'm tired of coming up with excuses for him as to why he isn't succeeding, he needs to create his own success, which I think he can and I still have hope for.

[ZOMG]

Only way I want Lauri back is if he’s the player we saw in the last preseason game for the whole season. He made a couple defensive plays. He created offense off the dribble and he made his 3s. He’s an offensive advantage at the 5.

That player is worth 20M and bringing back. Otherwise you trade him. Even if he hits his 3s this season but doesn’t show any other offensive output or creating then I’m trading him.

It's not just up to him. He needs to be featured in the offense, get down screens, and the ball needs to move.

This is why I'm worried that there might not be enough basketballs for the Bulls this season.

People expect Coby to have a huge role in the offense, Zach to do his thing and make himself an All Star, Wendell to get his touches at the FT line, Lauri to prove he can be the player we saw in the last PS game...

I dunno. Looks like somebody's gonna be disappointed with their role when it's all said and done.

I think Donovan can keep them in line. Also it has come time that Lauri has to speak up and demand the ball when it isn't coming his way. He needs to internalize that he is a top talent on the team and play like it instead of kumbaya let's all hold hands and work together equally offense because the other players (Zach, Coby) aren't going to be shooting equally regardless.

Not sure I fully agree. I've talked about this before.

An offense where you demand the ball from your teammates is a slow, predictable offense. It leads to a situation where Lauri stands on the perimeter with the ball and everyone else stops what they're doing to watch him. We've seen that play out before (just without the "demand" part). It wasn't pretty.

It shouldn't be a single player's responsibility to take the ball from a teammate. It should be the responsibility of all five players to keep the ball moving. I have no idea why you'd even play a guy who doesn't adhere to this.

[PaKii94]

It's not just up to him. He needs to be featured in the offense, get down screens, and the ball needs to move.

This is why I'm worried that there might not be enough basketballs for the Bulls this season.

People expect Coby to have a huge role in the offense, Zach to do his thing and make himself an All Star, Wendell to get his touches at the FT line, Lauri to prove he can be the player we saw in the last PS game...

I dunno. Looks like somebody's gonna be disappointed with their role when it's all said and done.

I think Donovan can keep them in line. Also it has come time that Lauri has to speak up and demand the ball when it isn't coming his way. He needs to internalize that he is a top talent on the team and play like it instead of kumbaya let's all hold hands and work together equally offense because the other players (Zach, Coby) aren't going to be shooting equally regardless.

Not sure I fully agree. I've talked about this before.

An offense where you demand the ball from your teammates is a slow, predictable offense. It leads to a situation where Lauri stands on the perimeter with the ball and everyone else stops what they're doing to watch him. We've seen that play out before (just without the "demand" part). It wasn't pretty.

It shouldn't be a single player's responsibility to take the ball from a teammate. It should be the responsibility of all five players to keep the ball moving. I have no idea why you'd even play a guy who doesn't adhere to this.

I don't mean demanding it on the court but just the alpha dog mentality. I agree with what you said, Lauri demanding the ball in game and getting put in a stagnant iso possession isn't good for Lauri or the team.

He had the dog in him rookie year when he wasn't backing down from anyone disregarding that he was a scrawny kid. I think the shooting elbow injury severely set him back in year 2 where he became timid/hesitant/contact averse. Year 3 was pretty much a full retraction. Last year it looked like he was happy just being included in the group of guys.

[PaKii94]

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/khiy3s/oklahoma_citys_aleksej_pokusevski_may_be_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb


I think Lauri is closer to a pterodactyl but has been used like a unicorn

[PaKii94]

Btw Lauri was producing good numbers still before his oblique injury last year. He couldn't hit his 3s but outside of that everything else was a career high:
p36- 20.4p/10.9r/3a on 39.3/25, 52TS%, 25% USG

If he was hitting on career average 3 point shot (36%) those values would be: 23p/11r on 45/36, 58TS%
His assists/stocks were both up, fouls down. This would have been career highs in literally everything (3pm/points/assists/rebounds/stocks/FTA).

After getting over the oblique, and finding his shot, it was too late for usage Lauri because he was already relegated to a spacer but from that point to the bad ankle roll, he was at 20.8p/7.3r/1.6a on 50/41, 64TS%, 120 ORTG, 21.8% USG on limited FG attempts. That's where his volume should have been bumped up.

When healthy and utilized, Lauri produces more often than not.

Thought experiment: What kind of contract would splits of 23p/11r/3a @ 58%TS with average defense entail?

[drosestruts]

My main thing with extending Lauri is that I want him to show he's capable of playing center. I know we can get by with Lauri at the 4 and it can work to a certain degree, but I feel that if we're ever to have a lineup with Lauri that's special that it's going to come with him playing the 5.

In that last preseason game, before garbage time, we seemed to exclusively run a center rotation of Wendell and Lauri so it seems I may get my wish on that visibility this season.

[patagonia]

Am curious to know if they are still negotiating or have just given up. I assume it's the former since we haven't yet heard otherwise.

[Pax for Prez]

Am curious to know if they are still negotiating or have just given up. I assume it's the former since we haven't yet heard otherwise.

6 pm is the deadline