All in, the process, or middling through

[Kanyewest]

GREAT post Doc... My only caveat is that we are entering uncharted territory. Over the last 15 years we've seen 2 things:

1) The greatest, most durable, team playing basketball player dominate consistently. Most all of which in our conference.
2) The 3 ball, fast pace revolution that has phased out specialist in favor of versatility

You mention two players that have revolutionized and/or dominated the game in LeBron and Curry... but both are entering the latter quarter/fifth of their career and we really dont know what the landscape will look like on the other side.

Doncic, Giannis, Jokic, etc. could all be the next best thing... but they are not Lebron.
I wouldn't be surprised if more 2020 Heat/2019 Raptors teams emerge over the next decade.

There's always a best player who wins an era though. Kobe/Shaq. Tim Duncan. MJ.
Yes you can have a 2020 Heat every year. They didn't win the last game of the year.
2019 Raptors traded into a one year fluke when LeBJ had a team full of young lottery picks around him. For that one year the Raptors won over KD's ruptured achilles, DeMarcus' ruptured achillies, Klay's torn ACL and Curry's dislocated finger.

Every few years there is a fluke where the best player is injured or a solid team build overcomes the trend.
Boston's big 3. Detroit. The Raptors blip. If that is being in contention then no doubt you'd take it. Build a good team who can take advantage in an off year. A smart front office carefully assembling talent and making the right trades when an opportunity presents itself. I'm with that. That kind of all in, or the process, comes from a high level of competence year after year. Not from any radical surge in either the 'blow it up' or 'go all in' philosophies. Incremental consistent competence gave them the chance to cash in eventually.

If the model requires a superstar who is not a top pick then Kobe is the hope I suppose, drafting lucky with the last pick of the lottery. (Well, drafting smart there too. They had Jerry West picking for them.) And Kobe's his early championships he had Shaq. I think experiencing championships early helps shape a talented player. Kobe, Kawhi, for instance.

Anyway. I guess I'm saying I'd take solid and competent and good for a while, to try to build a foundation, instead of doing anything radical to chase what is unlikely in the extreme. Especially since we don't see many examples of that working. We have some work to do first. it's tough to make up for 30 years all at once. If we can win a while with Russ and Beal and developing youth, then let's see how far that takes us. An opportunity may come along to significantly improve the team, and hopefully we will take it when it does. I'm with DCZards on this. I want to see what we have with what we've got, then reevaluate after we have let a positive culture take hold among the young players we have developing.

I do like some of the moves Tommy has made. TBJ, Bryant, Bonga, Deni. They seem like good value for how we got them. Mathews. Whether or not we drafted all of our young players, we are rebuilding. Young. Even Beal is in fact both young and still improving. Westbrook is the only player that runs counter to that model (Lopez and Ish, I suppose, but they are peripheral). However Russ seems like he will be instrumental in helping to cement a culture of hard work all the time. If his habits on both defense and shot selection improve then we may be a solid team and our win/loss record will improve the value of the assets we do have.

Championship contender or no, I think the team is better and has a more hopeful outlook now than it has in a long while. Yeah we need improvements in key areas. Defense being paramount. Coaching as well. And yeah this would have been a year to tank if lottery picks were going to be the savior for us. I just don't see the team doing that, so I am resolved to appreciate this year as a palate cleanser for years and years of the Grunfeld in our collective mouth.

If someone has a story to tell that shows how we realistically change all that and win a championship, I'm willing to listen though.

It may seem you are onto something as far as the injury front goes. Even the Detroit Pistons faced a Lakers team who didn't have a healthy Karl Malone. In 2008, Lakers didn't have a healthy Andrew Bynum against the Celtics (plus Ariza wasn't 100% IIRC).

Although that's often the case with most championship experiences good fortune in terms of health while the competition suffers significant injuries - take the Lakers last season who played he Blazers where Lillard went down mid-series, the Rockets who were playing with a banged up Westbrook. And finally the Heat who had an injured Dragic/Bam and even without them at 100% they pushed the Lakers to 6. Plenty of teams have faced injured competition in many seasons (ie 2018 Warriors down 3-2 faced the Rockets without CP3).

[wall_glizzy]

I don't recall that, Ruz -- but I'm sure you did. & I'd be happy to understand the sense in which "rebuilding" fails to apply to changing 14 out of 17 players in 19 months & 16 out of 17 in 2.5 years.

But I don't use the word, because I like it for some reason. I use it, because it's impossible to understand what's going on unless one does use it.

Ernie was fired 20 months ago. Since then, the Washington Wizards are on an altogether new course, a different path. Absolutely everything except our owner & 3 out of 17 players has changed entirely.

We have a new GM. We have a completely new FO. Not just the people but the jobs themselves & their responsibilities & relationships are different. The "philosophy" of the FO is also radically altered: no more "old basketball hands" (Ernie-style); instead we are one of the most heavily invested in analytics.

These changes are what drove the fast & radical rebuild of our roster -- we began looking for different kinds of player (both "people-different" & "play-different").

I should mention that Doc was the first to notice how radically & quickly things were shifting -- he posted extensively about this as early as the 2019 off season, I believe.

Even the focus on Brad Beal as our centerpiece, the guy we are building around, is a radical change -- we were built around & building around John Wall until very recently. Beal was secondary. Never did anyone write or say the phrase, "Bradley Beal & John Wall." It was always & exclusively "John Wall & Bradley Beal."

Making Brad the centerpiece of the team, in other words, is a part of rebuilding the Washington Wizards -- not evidence against the idea, not an exception to it, but a strategic piece of the decision to rebuild the franchise.

In fact, the decision to trade John, that itself was a key move in realizing that strategy. The "gang signs" debacle was a convenient framing device for the move, & of course they weren't going to give him away for nothing so the right trade had to be available, but once the key decisions had been made, his position in the franchise changed: he was no longer key to the Wizards' identity.

This is as much business & marketing as it is "basketball" (in the strict sense of what happens on court during games), but that just makes it more obvious & compelling that the appropriate word is "rebuilding" -- just in the sense that a company in a different industry might employ the term "restructuring" to the process of changing just about everything.

"Changing just about everything" -- rebuilding the Washington Wizards -- is what the Wizards have been doing since firing Ernie. QED, & that's enough from me on the subject.

I don't really have a dog in this semantic fight about "rebuilding," but maybe it clarifies the point being made by everyone else that much of this - new GM, two players left from the 2017-18 roster, and even better, a new coach - also applies to the Lakers.

edit: Looked again, it's actually three players - Caruso, Kuzma, KCP - of twenty-four.

[Ruzious]

So, the season actually starts tomorrow - after the world's shortest offseason. Whether we win or lose obviously depends on... who starts the game thread.

[doclinkin]

Anybody but ji.

[payitforward]

I don't think that's true. I don't recall seeing that anywhere. I think we were the 24th ranked defense or something like that.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/defense/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=02%2F06%2F2020&DateTo=03%2F17%2F2020

Good stuff! I stand corrected.

Yes -- excellent work, Nat.

From another angle: we were down 4.7 points a game on the season. But over that stretch of 15 games, we were down a total of 11 points.

We were 17-32 (.347) at the beginning of that stretch & then went 7-8 (.467).

Now... 9 of the 15 games were at home -- but still.

[payitforward]

Pif, rebuilding to most fans I think means more about going with youth rather than how many roster changes you make. For example, if a team acquires several veterans in an effort to get more wins now, that would be the opposite of rebuilding. It would be reloading but not rebuilding. You're rebuilding when you give more minutes to younger and less developed players, and you're not making a concerted effort to win now.

Yes, of course. That makes sense -- by & large, it's also what we've done. Now, this off season can be seen as counter-evidence, but again... since the end of the season before last, we've added Rui, Bonga, Mathews, Wagner, Avdija, Winston, Pasecniks, & Robinson. The previous two adds were Brown & Bryant.

But... let's let it go. Whatever word we use to describe it, we have done a lot to change the team. & we've also retained a key player & piece of identity as well....

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Pif, rebuilding to most fans I think means more about going with youth rather than how many roster changes you make. For example, if a team acquires several veterans in an effort to get more wins now, that would be the opposite of rebuilding. It would be reloading but not rebuilding. You're rebuilding when you give more minutes to younger and less developed players, and you're not making a concerted effort to win now.

Yes, of course. That makes sense -- by & large, it's also what we've done. Now, this off season can be seen as counter-evidence, but again... since the end of the season before last, we've added Rui, Bonga, Mathews, Wagner, Avdija, Winston, Pasecniks, & Robinson. The previous two adds were Brown & Bryant.

But... let's let it go. Whatever word we use to describe it, we have done a lot to change the team. & we've also retained a key player & piece of identity as well....

I'm seeing next season as our major step forward.

This offseason, I could see us drafting Garuba, and moving on from Ish and Lopez. I also think by the end of this season Mathews will solidify himself as the backup 2-guard on the roster.

Westbrook, Neto, Winston
Beal, Mathews, Robinson
Avdija, Bonga, Troy Brown Jr
Hachimura, Bertans
Garuba, Bryant, Wagner

[payitforward]

From your keyboard to God's ears!

But... I doubt it, alas. Plus, who knows whether we'll get Garuba? Also, who knows how good he'll be? Let alone will he be a starter right off the bat?

No reason for Robinson to be on the team. Ditto Wagner. Not sure Neto will be here either.

So far Rui is not at, or near, starter level productivity.

[SA37]

I say just let it play out. Look at what Miami did last year. Acquired Jimmy Butler aka “guy that went to a bad fit and ended up the scapegoat”. He’s a player committed to winning that had a great positive influence on the culture in Miami. Miami acquired him at age 30. They also drafted a guy like Bam Adebayo at 14th overall and picked up Duncan Robinson undrafted. Robinson barely even played the year before in his rookie season, then played 30 minutes a game last year, same thing with Kendrick Nunn. Undrafted, then played 30 minutes a night for them. They also drafted Herro 13th overall and played him 25+ minutes a night as a 20 year old rookie.

That should be the blueprint for Washington. brought in the scapegoat star player. It couldn’t be more clear about the misfit in Houston, the franchise player is skipping training camp to go on a tour of America’s strip clubs.

Miami won a bunch of games with a handful of first and second year players. Play a guy like Garrison Mathews, he could be our Duncan Robinson. Play the rookie. Avdija can have an impact like Tyler Herro. Play Brown Jr and Hachimura and hope for some big 2nd and 3rd year leaps.

I’m not a big “trade for a 3rd piece” guy. The best teams in the east don’t have a bunch of star power, they have depth. Each of them has a list of 7-8 good players.

It doesn't really work like that. You can't apply another situation to ours and say "let's do that" because there situation is not ours. We don't have Erik Spoelstra. We have Scott Brooks. We don't have Bam Adebayo, one of the best two way bigs in the game, we have Thomas Bryant. We don't have an established culture of accountability, were in the infancy stages of trying to develop it. In short, we are not the Miami Heat and it would be silly to take their "blueprint" because we lack the solid foundation and structure they have in place.

Agreed. Calling Miami a "blueprint" is unrealistic. It requires a certain amount of luck and skill that's not replicable. But I think Miami is a perfect example of how you can get better without first bottoming out. Many teams have done it. The common feature in near all of the successful examples (Milwaukee, Miami, Toronto, Denver) is finding a star player outside of the lottery (or at the tail end of the lottery). It's not out of the realm of possibility that we can do that.

Basically, it's a combination of competence and luck. The first step in competence is to avoid squandering young, high-upside assets for veterans with a limited ceiling. Hopefully, Sheppard will continue doing just that.

I think what has made Miami a solid franchise is the stability in the front office that extends down to the coaches. This is difficult to replicate in a short period of time and requires ownership to look beyond short-term gains. Riley has been at the helm for 25 years and in that time Miami has only had 3 coaches (Riley, Stan Van Gundy, and Erik Spoelstra).

It is worth remembering that Miami has had to completely rebuild from losing two franchise players to career-ending medical issues (Alonzo Mourning and Chris Bosh), bad free agent signings (Brian Grant and Eddie Jones), and losing LeBron to free agency.

Miami certainly had some things go their way, like Juwan Howard's $100M contract getting nullified, Anthony Carter's agent "forgetting" to opt-in, which allowed Miami to go after Lamar Odom (after Elton Brand chose to sign elsewhere, another blessing) and ended up facilitating the trade for Shaq. Getting LeBron was, of course, a once-in-a-generation acquisition in and of itself, let alone combined with keeping Wade and adding Chris Bosh.

Miami's most recent rebuild has been the most impressive to me because it has really been from getting draft picks right, finding undrafted guys (Hassan Whiteside, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Derrick Jones Jr are the latest to a list that includes Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, and Bruce Bowen) and making intelligent trades (Goran Dragic for peanuts and draft picks) and free agent acquisitions that didn't break the bank.

Washington can look at Miami and get an idea of what to do as far as buiding a franchise, but the one part that is impossible to replicate is the fact that Miami is a desireable place to play because of the weather and taxes. Still, Toronto, San Antonio, and OKC are also examples of teams that have done really well finding guys at the end of the 1st round, in the second round, or undrafted. Sam Presti (developed by... San Antonio) has been with Seattle/OKC for 14 years now. Popovich and RC Buford have been with San Antonio for 25 years or so. Those are the franchises I'd be looking to emulate if I were Washington.

To me, it starts with getting the front office sorted out and hiring a coach who will have 6-7 years to implement their system and their ideas, preferably someone looking to make a reputation for themselves and potentially has a link to the franchise. In Washington's case, Juwan Howard or Wes Unseld Jr would fit that bill; other options would be Kenny Atkinson, David Fizdale, Jacques Vaughn, Brett Brown, or anyone affiliated with OKC, San Antonio, or Miami.

Once that is in place, Washington can begin developing a long-term economic plan that will put them in position to add free agents or acquire assets by being the 3rd team that facilitates trades. The last part is just not overcommitting to guys (hello Otto Porter Jr, hello Rudy Gobert for $205 million) just for the sake of it.

[payitforward]

I'm just separating this closing portion of SA37's terrific post in order to have it available on its own. It's worth thorough examination & thought -- & worth it as well to compare this outline with the first 2 years of the Tommy Sheppard era & what it looks like we see ahead of us.

...Washington can look at Miami and get an idea of what to do as far as building a franchise, but the one part that is impossible to replicate is the fact that Miami is a desirable place to play because of the weather and taxes. Still, Toronto, San Antonio, and OKC are also examples of teams that have done really well finding guys at the end of the 1st round, in the second round, or undrafted. Sam Presti (developed by... San Antonio) has been with Seattle/OKC for 14 years now. Popovich and RC Buford have been with San Antonio for 25 years or so. Those are the franchises I'd be looking to emulate if I were Washington.

To me, it starts with getting the front office sorted out and hiring a coach who will have 6-7 years to implement their system and their ideas, preferably someone looking to make a reputation for themselves and potentially has a link to the franchise. In Washington's case, Juwan Howard or Wes Unseld Jr would fit that bill; other options would be Kenny Atkinson, David Fizdale, Jacques Vaughn, Brett Brown, or anyone affiliated with OKC, San Antonio, or Miami.

Once that is in place, Washington can begin developing a long-term economic plan that will put them in position to add free agents or acquire assets by being the 3rd team that facilitates trades. The last part is just not overcommitting to guys (hello Otto Porter Jr, hello Rudy Gobert for $205 million) just for the sake of it.

[payitforward]

Anyone like to comment on the virtues of "muddling through?" Soon we're going to see a terrible trade illustrating what a good idea it is!

[nate33]

I'm in favor of either muddling through or the process. The one thing I don't want to see is "all in".

[prime1time]

I am all in on sticking it out while not sacrificing the future. You don't throw away a plan 4 games into the season.