swarlesbarkley wrote:At least adding the dimension of fake pull up 3 into a 1 or 2 dribble 2 point jumper will force teams to not overplay the 3 as much. I think many of us have been begging for him to add that move for years. The downside is a long-range 2 is a bad shot in today's NBA but it's probably better than a contested 3 and will give him better looks at the 3 in the long run. Now we just need him to work on his vision when he's double and triple teamed!
Over the last two years Terrence Ross is 151-523 on tightly guarded threes (30.9%) and 239-573 (41.7%) on open/wide open threes.
For argument's sake, let's say Ross is going to continue to be a 30.9% three point shooter on those contested threes like he was the last two years, that comes out to 0.927 points per shot.
In order for a midrange jumper to be a more efficient shot, Ross would need to convert them at a 46.5% clip to get to 0.93 points per shot.
Now in his 5th year with the Magic, Ross is a 45.4% midrange shooter on all midrange attempts.
But considering teams are going to overplay his 3PT and be more willing to give up those midrange looks, it stands to reason that when Ross fakes a three and dribbles in to a midrange, he'll be open or wide open most of the time.
Over the last two years, Ross has shot 153-284 (53.1%) of his open and wide open shots inside the arc. Removing dunks and layups, he's made 48.8% of all other open/wide open 2PT shots which are pretty much all jumpers and floaters.
So at 48.8% on open and wide open 2PT jumpers, that's 0.976 points per shot, which statistically means Ross dribbling into a wide midrange is going to be more valuable to the Magic than a contested Ross 3PT attempt.