Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[Silvie Lysandra]

hot take: starting to think Beal is a huge part of the problem and that we need to lock in a package for him sooner rather than later. Before, I wouldn't have accepted anything less than Herro/Achiuwa/Robinson for him, but atm, I'd do 1-2 of those 3 + 1st + Nunn, or a similar package. While I think the current roster still has potential, Brooks is so bad of a coach that this season is very likely a lost season because of that alone, so it forces us into a mini-rebuild. Then we try to offload Thomas on a sucker and try to recoup the pick we lost in the Westbrook deal, while seeing how far he can carry us by himself with a team more built around him, which may recoup some value for next season (esp with the think FA market and Beal off the board, a team might get desperate)

[nate33]

hot take: starting to think Beal is a huge part of the problem and that we need to lock in a package for him sooner rather than later. Before, I wouldn't have accepted anything less than Herro/Achiuwa/Robinson for him, but atm, I'd do 1-2 of those 3 + 1st + Nunn, or a similar package. While I think the current roster still has potential, Brooks is so bad of a coach that this season is very likely a lost season because of that alone, so it forces us into a mini-rebuild. Then we try to offload Thomas on a sucker and try to recoup the pick we lost in the Westbrook deal, while seeing how far he can carry us by himself with a team more built around him, which may recoup some value for next season (esp with the think FA market and Beal off the board, a team might get desperate)

I'm not really worried that Beal's trade value is declining. Statistically, he is as good as ever. He is averaging 32 points on a .571 TS% despite shooting a woeful 24% from 3-point range. His FTA's are up. His 2P% is up. His steals are up. His rebounding is holding steady. His assists are only slightly down and his turnovers slightly up, but not significantly so. He has a +9.8 on/off differential so it's not like he is detrimental to the team when he is on the floor.

If you assume the 24% 3P% is an aberration, he is on his way to an even better year than last. The FTA's are what's really encouraging. He flipped a switch in the middle of last year and figured out how to get to the line 10 times a game. Apparently, that wasn't a fluke, it's the new normal. If his 3-point shot comes around, he'll basically be James Harden.

[Dark Faze]

I'm willing to let the whole year playout. There's a few guys that I'd really like to see the numbers on before committing to a move for them (Wiseman, Herro, Achiuwa).

[pcbothwel]

I would take the Miami deals before GSW at this point. I'd rather get back actual talent (plus one pick) than hope that multiple 2021 draft picks work out. And the Wiggins contract is a serious millstone.

If Herro has a good season and Achiuwa looks good there'll be some thought there for sure.

I shouldn't be perhaps, but I'm a bit leery of Herro's ceiling.

This, Herro looks to be a competitor and great shooter with some savvy skill.
But he'll always be overmatched defensively and his anemic FTr of 15% limits his efficiency.
For comparison, Beal is shooting 46/24/87 with a eFG of 50%. TS of 57%.
Herro is shooting 45/35/82 with an eFG of 53%. TS of 55%

[Ruzious]

I would take the Miami deals before GSW at this point. I'd rather get back actual talent (plus one pick) than hope that multiple 2021 draft picks work out. And the Wiggins contract is a serious millstone.

If Herro has a good season and Achiuwa looks good there'll be some thought there for sure.

I shouldn't be perhaps, but I'm a bit leery of Herro's ceiling.

This, Herro looks to be a competitor and great shooter with some savvy skill.
But he'll always be overmatched defensively and his anemic FTr of 15% limits his efficiency.
For comparison, Beal is shooting 46/24/87 with a eFG of 50%. TS of 57%.
Herro is shooting 45/35/82 with an eFG of 53%. TS of 55%

Herro's going to get nothing but better - just as Beal did. His role in their offense will increase because he has point guard skills, and his FT rate should increase as his role increases and he gains more experience and respect from officials. Also, he's no train-wreck on defense despite his small wingspan. Herro's the real deal, and if I'm Miami, I don't trade him.

[pcbothwel]

The Home Run trade is clearly GSW. Wiseman and two 2021 Lotto picks (i.e. for Beal)....

We then don't have to do a Full tank as Westbrook, Brown, Deni, Rui, Wiseman plus 3 Rookies would REALLY fun to watch....

Except... that is a full tank. Or, rather, that is "the process." Or, if you prefer, it's "rebuilding from scratch."

Maybe its semantics, but a Full Rebuild/"Process" is literally tanking. Putting a dog **** product on the floor for 2 seasons to lock in picks in the top 3.

This would be different because we use Beal to get the elite prospect, not purposeful tanking. I actually think with the right coach we would be more similar to the Celtics a few years ago in that we would compete for the play in spot with that team.
If the two GSW picks are in the 7-12 range, I would look to trade into the top 4 for either Suggs or Cade. The Pistons, Bulls, and Hornets are 3 teams that just drafted a PG in the top 7 and could look to move down for other prospects.

Westbrook / Suggs / Winston
Brown / Suggs
Deni / Bonga
Rui / Bertans
Wiseman / Garuba (Wiz pick 12-15)

Sorry, but I dont see that team not being in the mix for the play in spot, for better or worse.

[nate33]

If Herro has a good season and Achiuwa looks good there'll be some thought there for sure.

I shouldn't be perhaps, but I'm a bit leery of Herro's ceiling.

This, Herro looks to be a competitor and great shooter with some savvy skill.
But he'll always be overmatched defensively and his anemic FTr of 15% limits his efficiency.
For comparison, Beal is shooting 46/24/87 with a eFG of 50%. TS of 57%.
Herro is shooting 45/35/82 with an eFG of 53%. TS of 55%

Herro's going to get nothing but better - just as Beal did. His role in their offense will increase because he has point guard skills, and his FT rate should increase as his role increases and he gains more experience and respect from officials. Also, he's no train-wreck on defense despite his small wingspan. Herro's the real deal, and if I'm Miami, I don't trade him.

Yeah, Herro has a ceiling as a shooting guard because of his lack of length, but he has a path for stardom by shifting to PG full time.

I do think Miami would make the trade though. Beal is really freaking good, and he would be superb with a great coach like Spoelstra who would emphasize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

[Shoe]

We're not trading Beal to the Heat. They'd be committing to face him 4 times a year for the next half decade. Every team tries to trade their all star out of the conference, let alone the division. If there was a Beal trade, the Pelicans make sense. They won't be able to sign him in free agency (Lakers, Heat) but they know hes a guy who could be persuaded to re-sign. Something like
2021 pels
2022 pels
2023 lakers
Bledsoe
as the base.
They would still have first rounders in 21 and 23 while building a team with three young all stars.
Most likely scenario is we keep Beal through the end of his contract in hopes of signing him in FA.

[pcbothwel]

If Herro has a good season and Achiuwa looks good there'll be some thought there for sure.

I shouldn't be perhaps, but I'm a bit leery of Herro's ceiling.

This, Herro looks to be a competitor and great shooter with some savvy skill.
But he'll always be overmatched defensively and his anemic FTr of 15% limits his efficiency.
For comparison, Beal is shooting 46/24/87 with a eFG of 50%. TS of 57%.
Herro is shooting 45/35/82 with an eFG of 53%. TS of 55%

Herro's going to get nothing but better - just as Beal did. His role in their offense will increase because he has point guard skills, and his FT rate should increase as his role increases and he gains more experience and respect from officials. Also, he's no train-wreck on defense despite his small wingspan. Herro's the real deal, and if I'm Miami, I don't trade him.

Agreed... that said, we should all take a deep breath about the 1st 4 games. We are not the only ones with issues:

Miami is 1-2 after losing to the Magic and getting absolutely blown out by Milwaukee. Bam and Herro have looked pedestrian and Butler has been worse than Westbrook offensively (ORtg / TS of 97 / 47%)

Toronto is 0-3 after losing to the Spurs and 2 guys they gave big money to in FVV and Siakim look pretty bad. Siakam particularly as he went from future multiple AS to just a guy.

[Dat2U]

I'm not dealing Beal until after the 2021 lottery unless someone makes an AD or PG13 type offer prior to then. I want to know the layout of 2021 draft and be able to pick the best elite prospect & additional assets to trade Beal for. I thought the same thing in 2019 and suggested seeing if there was a way to get the 2nd pick via a 3-way to draft Morant and get other assets for Beal. Beal is viewed as a legitimate star around the league and I'd be looking for potential one in return on a rookie salary scale. It would be foolish to settle for something less.

[Ruzious]

This, Herro looks to be a competitor and great shooter with some savvy skill.
But he'll always be overmatched defensively and his anemic FTr of 15% limits his efficiency.
For comparison, Beal is shooting 46/24/87 with a eFG of 50%. TS of 57%.
Herro is shooting 45/35/82 with an eFG of 53%. TS of 55%

Herro's going to get nothing but better - just as Beal did. His role in their offense will increase because he has point guard skills, and his FT rate should increase as his role increases and he gains more experience and respect from officials. Also, he's no train-wreck on defense despite his small wingspan. Herro's the real deal, and if I'm Miami, I don't trade him.

Agreed... that said, we should all take a deep breath about the 1st 4 games. We are not the only ones with issues:

Miami is 1-2 after losing to the Magic and getting absolutely blown out by Milwaukee. Bam and Herro have looked pedestrian and Butler has been worse than Westbrook offensively (ORtg / TS of 97 / 47%)

Toronto is 0-3 after losing to the Spurs and 2 guys they gave big money to in FVV and Siakim look pretty bad. Siakam particularly as he went from future multiple AS to just a guy.

Siakam for Ish, Robinson, and a top 53 protected 3rd round pick! Actually, I did expect Siakam to reach near superstar status, and it hasn't happened. It'll be interesting to see if Toronto as some point starts shopping him. Of course, Toronto's GM is kinda smart.

[nate33]

We're not trading Beal to the Heat. They'd be committing to face him 4 times a year for the next half decade. Every team tries to trade their all star out of the conference, let alone the division. If there was a Beal trade, the Pelicans make sense. They won't be able to sign him in free agency (Lakers, Heat) but they know hes a guy who could be persuaded to re-sign. Something like
2021 pels
2022 pels
2023 lakers
Bledsoe
as the base.
They would still have first rounders in 21 and 23 while building a team with three young all stars.
Most likely scenario is we keep Beal through the end of his contract in hopes of signing him in FA.

The Pelicans better propose more than that. That's 3 late picks and Bledsoe. Make that 5 picks at a minimum if they're not sending us a young star-caliber guy.

[SA37]

I'm not dealing Beal until after the 2021 lottery unless someone makes an AD or PG13 type offer prior to then. I want to know the layout of 2021 draft and be able to pick the best elite prospect & additional assets to trade Beal for. I thought the same thing in 2019 and suggested seeing if there was a way to get the 2nd pick via a 3-way to draft Morant and get other assets for Beal. Beal is viewed as a legitimate star around the league and I'd be looking for potential one in return on a rookie salary scale. It would be foolish to settle for something less.

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

I am really curious as to what the market would be for Beal. I think Beal is a good player, but I don't think he is an elite player (he's only been an All-star twice and has never made the All-NBA team, although he probably should have made the 3rd team over Westbrook last year). Plus, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Gary Trent Jr, DeMar DeRozan, and potentially Goran Dragic will all be good options at shooting guard in free agency.

An interesting option might be Atlanta, who did not come to terms with John Collins. I could see a deal like this helping both Washington and Atlanta:

Atlanta gets Bradley Beal
Washington gets Johns Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Tony Snell, and a pick/swap (some sort of draft considerations)

Other options I think could be viable and worth targeting: Jamal Murray + Will Barton, Buddy Hield + Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordan + Evan Fournier

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm not dealing Beal until after the 2021 lottery unless someone makes an AD or PG13 type offer prior to then. I want to know the layout of 2021 draft and be able to pick the best elite prospect & additional assets to trade Beal for. I thought the same thing in 2019 and suggested seeing if there was a way to get the 2nd pick via a 3-way to draft Morant and get other assets for Beal. Beal is viewed as a legitimate star around the league and I'd be looking for potential one in return on a rookie salary scale. It would be foolish to settle for something less.

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

I am really curious as to what the market would be for Beal. I think Beal is a good player, but I don't think he is an elite player (he's only been an All-star twice and has never made the All-NBA team, although he probably should have made the 3rd team over Westbrook last year). Plus, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Gary Trent Jr, DeMar DeRozan, and potentially Goran Dragic will all be good options at shooting guard in free agency.

An interesting option might be Atlanta, who did not come to terms with John Collins. I could see a deal like this helping both Washington and Atlanta:

Atlanta gets Bradley Beal
Washington gets Johns Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Tony Snell, and a pick/swap (some sort of draft considerations)

Other options I think could be viable and worth targeting: Jamal Murray + Will Barton, Buddy Hield + Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordan + Evan Fournier, Terry Rozier + DeVonte Graham+Cody Zeller and picks

I think IF we were to deal Beal, the most likely scenario is Miami for Herro & Prescious + a future 1st (2023?).


https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7374799

[SA37]

Spoiler:

I'm not dealing Beal until after the 2021 lottery unless someone makes an AD or PG13 type offer prior to then. I want to know the layout of 2021 draft and be able to pick the best elite prospect & additional assets to trade Beal for. I thought the same thing in 2019 and suggested seeing if there was a way to get the 2nd pick via a 3-way to draft Morant and get other assets for Beal. Beal is viewed as a legitimate star around the league and I'd be looking for potential one in return on a rookie salary scale. It would be foolish to settle for something less.

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

I am really curious as to what the market would be for Beal. I think Beal is a good player, but I don't think he is an elite player (he's only been an All-star twice and has never made the All-NBA team, although he probably should have made the 3rd team over Westbrook last year). Plus, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Gary Trent Jr, DeMar DeRozan, and potentially Goran Dragic will all be good options at shooting guard in free agency.

An interesting option might be Atlanta, who did not come to terms with John Collins. I could see a deal like this helping both Washington and Atlanta:

Atlanta gets Bradley Beal
Washington gets Johns Collins, DeAndre Hunter, Tony Snell, and a pick/swap (some sort of draft considerations)

Other options I think could be viable and worth targeting: Jamal Murray + Will Barton, Buddy Hield + Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordan + Evan Fournier, Terry Rozier + DeVonte Graham+Cody Zeller and picks

I think IF we were to deal Beal, the most likely scenario is Miami for Herro & Prescious + a future 1st (2023?).


https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7374799

Possibly, but I am not sure Miami would offer more than Herro and Nunn + cap relief (Olynyk and Iguodala); it really depends on how high Heat management are on Beal and if Miami feels like they can get Oladipo in free agency (Miami has supposedly had a lot of interest in him over the years). A big issue for Miami is they have future picks tied up with other teams from previous trades and I don't think they can send a pick unless it is 2025 or 2026 or unless they unprotect a 2023 pick sent to OKC...something like that.

My inclination is that Riley won't trade Herro without getting an elite player back (hence the brief Harden discussions). I have no idea if Miami feels Beal fits that bill. Personally, I don't feel Miami gets a lot better by moving Herro for Beal because of how Miami plays and what they are asking Herro to do (basically be the 3rd option on offense).

[SUPERBALLMAN]

What about Beal & Troy Brown Jr for Simmons, Maxey, 2021 1st?

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7374804

[nate33]

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

Beal isn't on AD's level, but he is on Paul George's, particularly when factoring age.

At any rate, Beal is more valuable than Jrue Holiday, so I would at least expect a package as good as that one.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

As far as Westbrook, the team I keep coming to is the Clippers.

They are definitely in win now mode. Plus competing with the Lakers for headlines and hype.

It would reunite Westbrook with George who has spoke fondly of him, and seemingly had good on court chemistry.

Westbrook returns home to LA.


https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/7374817

[SA37]

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

Beal isn't on AD's level, but he is on Paul George's, particularly when factoring age.

At any rate, Beal is more valuable than Jrue Holiday, so I would at least expect a package as good as that one.

Yeah, Beal is definitely on George's level and more valuable than Holiday; the problem is the leverage/desperation that existed for the Clippers in the George trade (Leonard signing) and the Bucks in the Holiday trade (Giannis's extension/impending FA) -- especially after the whole Bogdanovic deal falling through -- isn't really there.

Atlanta really pushed to improve their team in the summer and might see Beal as the final piece to that puzzle and they have some nice young pieces. Memphis might also feel like they need to get Morant a star next to him (for Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks?).

I think these trades give us an idea of what kind of trade we can expect for Beal:

1. Kawhi + Danny Green for DeRozan + Poetl + 1st

2. Jimmy Butler +#16 for Zach Lavine + Kris Dunn + 7

3. Chris Paul for Rubio + Oubre Jr + 1st

4. Golden State Warriors acquire: Andrew Wiggins, a top-three protected first-round pick that becomes unprotected in 2022, and a 2021 second-round pick

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, and Omari Spellman

[nate33]

There is absolutely no way Beal gets Washington a package like New Orleans got for AD or OKC got for George. AD is unique in that he can anchor your defense and be your #1 option on offense; AD is perennial All-NBA 1st teal. Beal is just not on that level. The Clippers overpaid for George because it meant Kawhi Leonard would sign; that leverage does not exist for Washington.

Beal isn't on AD's level, but he is on Paul George's, particularly when factoring age.

At any rate, Beal is more valuable than Jrue Holiday, so I would at least expect a package as good as that one.

Yeah, Beal is definitely on George's level and more valuable than Holiday; the problem is the leverage/desperation that existed for the Clippers in the George trade (Leonard signing) and the Bucks in the Holiday trade (Giannis's extension/impending FA) -- especially after the whole Bogdanovic deal falling through -- isn't really there.

Atlanta really pushed to improve their team in the summer and might see Beal as the final piece to that puzzle and they have some nice young pieces. Memphis might also feel like they need to get Morant a star next to him (for Brandon Clarke and Dillon Brooks?).

I think these trades give us an idea of what kind of trade we can expect for Beal:

1. Kawhi + Danny Green for DeRozan + Poetl + 1st

2. Jimmy Butler +#16 for Zach Lavine + Kris Dunn + 7

3. Chris Paul for Rubio + Oubre Jr + 1st

4. Golden State Warriors acquire: Andrew Wiggins, a top-three protected first-round pick that becomes unprotected in 2022, and a 2021 second-round pick

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, and Omari Spellman

LOL no. Beal is 27 years old and was the 2nd leading scorer in the league last year, but can also blend into a system.

Your first deal was a 1-year rental with no expectation that Kawhi would be retained.
Your second deal was for a 30-year-old who had demanded out of two teams in two years.
Your third deal was for a 35-year-old past-his-prime former star.
Your fourth deal was for a guy (Russell) who most people consider a negative value on his contract.

I'm not spending any more time arguing this with you. You are wrong.