2021 Playoff and Offseason Speculation - the playoffs. PLAYOFFS????

[bwgood77]

I think that he will get and deserves a bigger contract than Saric.

Personally I think that $72M/4 years would be a fair contract for both sides and I would extend his contract this summer at that price. $18M per year is what Myles Turner is getting, and I think he is as good as Turner.

Turner is a better shot blocker and 3p shooter, but Ayton is a better rebounder and better scorer in the paint...so all in all for now I think they have about the same value in the league.

I would give him more money per year IF he makes a leap in some area before the end of this season, and that is a real possibility, but I need to see it. In that case $90M/4 years would makes sense and we would avoid to go to RFA.

Obviously I would not give Ayton the max or anything close to the max, that is not even a serious option at this point.

Who knows how much these guys will make halfway through their rookie contracts? Ayton is probably near top 5 in the rookie class right now. After last year RAPTOR projected his 5 year value to be $135, or about $27 million a year.

I have no idea what he will make. I wouldn't guess right now either because I have no idea what he will look like after another 140-145 games. He's only played in about 110 so far...and will probably make more improvements in his next 145 than he has in his first 110, and he's made vast improvements already.

$27 million seems kind of like a lot, but it probably won't be that much in 2 years...it's also what Steven Adams makes this year. The guys who make more than that are Embiid, Jokic, Towns, Drummond and Gobert. Vucevic is at $26. So right now his value should probably be less than that. There are not really any other bigger name Cs out there though...a guy like Myles Turner, who isn't nearly as good, who averaged 13 and 7 in his 4th year, makes $18 million a year.

Obviously talks about his possible extension and contract negotiations will start earlier than in the summer of 2022.

Look at this year class of rookie extensions, most of good players have been extended. Fultz, Fox, Isaac,White,Tatum, Adebayo,Mitchell, Anunoby, Kennard...so yeah, it's pretty common to agree on a contract after their third rookie season and that moment is not that far away.

And regarding Myles Turner...he doesn't average too many rebounds but he is a fantastic shot blocker and rim protector. That's is why I said that his value around the league can be similar to Ayton and he can be a reference for his next contract.

Sure after his 3rd season they can consider it. But after 5 games playing with a new PG that our star is also taking time to adjust to is premature.

I hope we can extend him for that price tag, but it's probably doubtful. Heck, people were talking about paying Oubre like $24 million.

I have no idea what his value will be...and I have no idea how much he will continue to progress this season, but I imagine it will be quite a bit.

If he thinks the extension is a lowball offer, we may hit RFA and can match someone, but at that point he likely progresses further, the cap may be a bit higher, and I'm sure there is a team or two out there that would offer him quite a bit of money. Likely a bit more than $18 million a year unless he gets injured or something.

[Bogyo]

And Booker is avg 20 ppg. What’s your point? It’s been 5 games and we are winning? Obviously Ayton, CP3 and Monty are working on something for the future and not just for pretty stats.

DA is doing what he’s been asked to do. We are getting a rhythm. Bridges and Cam, Crowder and the bench are keeping us from losing games as DA, Booker and even a little of CP3 are trying to find their rhythm.
As you can see DA has not been taking his go to shots or even getting the ball in his spots for that money elbow jumper he has. His attempts are down because it seems that they are simply working on the pick and roll aspect and not the pick and pop yet.
If you haven’t noticed yet Monty is methodical and sticks to his agenda no matter what. He believes in something and is willing to be patient until it manifests.
I believe once CP3 and Ayton figure out the PnR part of the game we will see a lot more of pick and fade and other Ayton scoring opportunities.

Congrats, that is the weakest respons I've ever gotten here. I point out everything that is wrong with him, and you come back with a weak-azz "what's your point" becouse someone ELSE is having a bit slower than usual start? GTFO

Not really...the key point there is that it's way too early to assess how someone is doing in comparison to prior years after 5 games. And only assessing guys by PPG is pretty weak. He's improved in every other area.

The other "someones" get benefit of the doubt, becouse they have proved themselves in the past, and progressed year after year.
I wasn't assessing him only by his PPG as you can see above. Maybe I should have made more points (about dumb offensive fouls, etc...), but I doubt that a mile long list would have made more proof than what we see. We'll see how he picks up the slack later on. He will score more, have a better FG%, have better chemistry with CP, but I doubt he'll have anything close of a good season that many were predicting. Most of that is on him. Not his teammates, not his coaches and not on me. I just say it how I see it.

[bwgood77]

Congrats, that is the weakest respons I've ever gotten here. I point out everything that is wrong with him, and you come back with a weak-azz "what's your point" becouse someone ELSE is having a bit slower than usual start? GTFO

Not really...the key point there is that it's way too early to assess how someone is doing in comparison to prior years after 5 games. And only assessing guys by PPG is pretty weak. He's improved in every other area.

The other "someones" get benefit of the doubt, becouse they have proved themselves in the past, and progressed year after year.
I wasn't assessing him only by his PPG as you can see above. Maybe I should have made more points (about dumb offensive fouls, etc...), but I doubt that a mile long list would have made more proof than what we see. We'll see how he picks up the slack later on. He will score more, have a better FG%, have better chemistry with CP, but I doubt he'll have anything close of a good season that many were predicting. Most of that is on him. Not his teammates, not his coaches and not on me. I just say it how I see it.

I don't mind fouls as much as you I guess because it shows he is being aggressive and trying new things and he can use it as a learning opportunity...what he can and can't get away with. He used to be a lot weaker screener and not as active on defense so he didn't get as many fouls...he played like he's worried about fouls..that's fine to do if you have 5 but you can't do that the whole game like he used to.

I've seen you continue to say 20/10. Well he has the 10 part down and has been a better rebounder per minute, so that part has been fine. Yes, I'm not worried about PPG but I think his average will go up quite a bit. He may get up to 20 but it's not really a big concern of mine if he's contributing to winning like he has been, having the 3rd best net rtg of our starters behind Bridges and Crowder.

[dremill24]

Honestly if Ayton is putting up 20ppg this year then its probly not great for team success, cause it means opponents are taking away open 3s by good shooters and forcing Ayton to take weak, contested 2s at a mediocre %, meaning the expected value of our offensive looks takes a huge hit.

After a few more seasons of development, that could change. I think people will be reasonably happy with what a 26yo Ayton can do, even if its not first ballot HOF production. He'll never be Luka, so that will always hurt, but I think he'll be pretty good, especially if his defensive progression continues.

[bigfoot]

Becouse he not only doesn't average 20 points, but is down to 10 PPG from last years 18 or even the rookie years 16. Playing with the point god, who everyone thought will make him better. And it's not only stats, he looks downright lost and useless on offense. He can not score, he can't set a hard screen, almost always slips it too early (sometimes too late) his rolls are weak, can't play the PnR, not in the good position to catch lobs ( at least last year it was Rickys fault ) fumbles the ball more than he used to. As usual he does not get to the FT line, and tries to finess everything or pass out from the paint. He has a 47% FG% as a C. Is there anything else you can suck at on a basketball court on offense? Not sure about that. And NONE is going for him right now.

I'm convinced that Ayton is unlikely to average 20 points per game anytime soon. His offense just isn't refined enough to be able to create for himself. I think that is a requirement to able to average 20+. Hopefully, Monty's plan is to turn him into a defensive beast first and let his offensive skills develop slowly. I'd be fine with that progression. Sadly, over five games, a small sample, Ayton has regressed in so many offensive categories ... FG%, FT%, minutes played, and dunks (only 2 in 5 games where he has averaged 2 per game in the past). He's had poor hands as of late too.

We might have 3 more years before Ayton really comes into his own.

Did you really think that after he averaged 18 last year, and we got CP this summer? Honest question.

Yes ... he has not shown the ability to reliably create his own offense. His handle is just so, so. His outside shooting is still suspect. He is not running pick-and-pop at all. He's been unable to catch many balls from CP3 on the PNR. His FT% is down. His minutes are down 4 per game over last year. He kicks out most of his offensive rebounds and post-entry passes. Bridges and Cam Johnson are taking more shots. CP3 will take more shots. I don't see how Ayton will reach an average of 20 points per game this season when he is not a focal point of the offense. Right now Ayton is sixth in scoring average on the team. This team is different than last year and if you recall, Ayton only averaged about 14-15 in the bubble. That might be what we can expect this season.

[bwgood77]

Honestly if Ayton is putting up 20ppg this year then its probly not great for team success, cause it means opponents are taking away open 3s by good shooters and forcing Ayton to take weak, contested 2s at a mediocre %, meaning the expected value of our offensive looks takes a huge hit.

After a few more seasons of development, that could change. I think people will be reasonably happy with what a 26yo Ayton can do, even if its not first ballot HOF production. He'll never be Luka, so that will always hurt, but I think he'll be pretty good, especially if his defensive progression continues.

Yeah, I'd rather him score low teens and our players hit a ton of open 3s than have him post up against defenders even if he was good at it, and try to score. The open 3 is just a better shot. Now if you can dominate the pick and roll and get the occasional open lane, lobs and putbacks, great. Amare didn't really post up much, but you didn't want him to. You wanted him to be a finisher or us to hit open 3s. I think Ayton could score his points as a combo of Amare's finishes (though not as good...but few people are) and Marion's put backs...and maybe a few 3s and short hook shots.

[bigfoot]

Honestly if Ayton is putting up 20ppg this year then its probly not great for team success, cause it means opponents are taking away open 3s by good shooters and forcing Ayton to take weak, contested 2s at a mediocre %, meaning the expected value of our offensive looks takes a huge hit.

After a few more seasons of development, that could change. I think people will be reasonably happy with what a 26yo Ayton can do, even if its not first ballot HOF production. He'll never be Luka, so that will always hurt, but I think he'll be pretty good, especially if his defensive progression continues.

Yeah, I'd rather him score low teens and our players hit a ton of open 3s than have him post up against defenders even if he was good at it, and try to score. The open 3 is just a better shot. Now if you can dominate the pick and roll and get the occasional open lane, lobs and putbacks, great. Amare didn't really post up much, but you didn't want him to. You wanted him to be a finisher or us to hit open 3s. I think Ayton could score his points as a combo of Amare's finishes (though not as good...but few people are) and Marion's put backs...and maybe a few 3s and short hook shots.

A number we need to follow closely is Ayton's true shooting percentage. Quality centers should be in the .600 to .700 range. Right now Ayton is sitting at .500.

[Bogyo]

As usual, things got a bit sideways on the message board. The point is not his PPG, not if he averages 20 or any other arbitrary number, or gets 10 boards 2 blocks whatever. It's just that he sucked mightily on offense this year, while the expectation was that he will take a step forward. He SHOULD HAVE. (Well, at least most peoples expectation, Bigfoot being one of the doubters).
It wasn't about the team either. Yes we are good, but we thought we'd be good, we just added a HOF PG and a "perfect" strech 4 (for this team, in 2020, with the way BBall is played now). Heck, some of his "good" stats might be a byproduct of his good teammates.
Point is: so far he hasn't shown that he can be a legit No2 guy on a good team. In his 3rd year, with an elite PG. He regressed.
If he REALLY turns it around, I'll be happy as a pig in sht. I don't care wether it's 17 PTS or 23. I just cant really believe in him anymore.

[Bogyo]

Honestly if Ayton is putting up 20ppg this year then its probly not great for team success, cause it means opponents are taking away open 3s by good shooters and forcing Ayton to take weak, contested 2s at a mediocre %, meaning the expected value of our offensive looks takes a huge hit.

After a few more seasons of development, that could change. I think people will be reasonably happy with what a 26yo Ayton can do, even if its not first ballot HOF production. He'll never be Luka, so that will always hurt, but I think he'll be pretty good, especially if his defensive progression continues.

Yeah, I'd rather him score low teens and our players hit a ton of open 3s than have him post up against defenders even if he was good at it, and try to score. The open 3 is just a better shot. Now if you can dominate the pick and roll and get the occasional open lane, lobs and putbacks, great. Amare didn't really post up much, but you didn't want him to. You wanted him to be a finisher or us to hit open 3s. I think Ayton could score his points as a combo of Amare's finishes (though not as good...but few people are) and Marion's put backs...and maybe a few 3s and short hook shots.

A number we need to follow closely is Ayton's true shooting percentage. Quality centers should be in the .600 to .700 range. Right now Ayton is sitting at .500.

Also wanted to add this to my previous post. Beat me to it - at least I don't have to edit that.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I asked this question in another thread but what's Ayton actually 'great' at offensively? Id say touch for a big is probably is best offensive trait and he's pretty good at a bunch of things but he's not really elite at anything.

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[bwgood77]

Honestly if Ayton is putting up 20ppg this year then its probly not great for team success, cause it means opponents are taking away open 3s by good shooters and forcing Ayton to take weak, contested 2s at a mediocre %, meaning the expected value of our offensive looks takes a huge hit.

After a few more seasons of development, that could change. I think people will be reasonably happy with what a 26yo Ayton can do, even if its not first ballot HOF production. He'll never be Luka, so that will always hurt, but I think he'll be pretty good, especially if his defensive progression continues.

Yeah, I'd rather him score low teens and our players hit a ton of open 3s than have him post up against defenders even if he was good at it, and try to score. The open 3 is just a better shot. Now if you can dominate the pick and roll and get the occasional open lane, lobs and putbacks, great. Amare didn't really post up much, but you didn't want him to. You wanted him to be a finisher or us to hit open 3s. I think Ayton could score his points as a combo of Amare's finishes (though not as good...but few people are) and Marion's put backs...and maybe a few 3s and short hook shots.

A number we need to follow closely is Ayton's true shooting percentage. Quality centers should be in the .600 to .700 range. Right now Ayton is sitting at .500.

Well, if you're looking for a high number of points, like more than what Ayton had last year and centers who shoot in the 60%+ range, your list is about 2 guys...Towns and Jokic.

Many of the other high scoring Cs have never eclipsed that or even come close. Since you like this extremely small sample size this year, you might point out that Embiid is a tad over 60% this year in his 4 games, and was somewhat close the last couple years.

Ayton is one of the only ones to have over a 60% TS% as a rookie, but once he started to attract so much defensive attention, it has gone down.

Really any star offensive players should have over 60%, and it's often easier for them to get there if it's on large volume if they can either hit the 3 at a high %, or hit the 2 at a high % like Booker, or get to the line a lot...(preferably two of those at least). Like Booker and Bridges did last year. And this year Bridges is at 73%.

But I don't put too much stock in this year's TS% only 5 games in...I imagine it improves. And I imagine Bridges comes down from 73% as well.

Ayton probably attracts more defensive attention down low than just about any C except maybe Embiid or Towns. But Towns plays mostly on the perimeter shooting 3s at a high % to get his crazy TS% and Jokic plays away from the rim too mostly. Not too many other bigs are doubled in there.

It's always been easy to do so against the Suns because we never had any 3 pt shooters who could hit better than 35-36%. This year that looks like it might change, so it might be harder to double when they know they will likely pay for it.

[bwgood77]

I asked this question in another thread but what's Ayton actually 'great' at offensively? Id say touch for a big is probably is best offensive trait and he's pretty good at a bunch of things but he's not really elite at anything.

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I think he's a great passer for a C. Not at the elite level like a Jokic, or even a Bam or Sabonis, but similar to the latter two about as many pro games in. I don't think he will need to pass as much as either of those latter two though, since the offense won't run through him with Booker around along with a PG.

I don't think too many guys 115 games or so into their career though are great at anything, especially if they are 1 and dones.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I asked this question in another thread but what's Ayton actually 'great' at offensively? Id say touch for a big is probably is best offensive trait and he's pretty good at a bunch of things but he's not really elite at anything.

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I think he's a great passer for a C. Not at the elite level like a Jokic, or even a Bam or Sabonis, but similar to the latter two about as many pro games in. I don't think he will need to pass as much as either of those latter two though, since the offense won't run through him with Booker around along with a PG.

I don't think too many guys 115 games or so into their career though are great at anything, especially if they are 1 and dones.

I think he's a pretty good passer, a pretty good shooter, a decent post game, decent rim runner. Like I was saying I think he's ok at a lot of things offensively but I don't think there's any one thing he currently is or projects to be great at in the future.

With his growth on D he can be a really nice useful player. I hope that he can accept that but if he feels like he needs to be a star that's where things could get a little dicey because I honestly don't see it.

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[bwgood77]

It is funny looking back at some big name C's of the past, after bigfoot says quality Cs should avg between 60-70% TS%

Ayton career average TS% so far - 59%

Hakeem never came close. As a matter of fact, he only beat Ayton's second year of 56.8% once (57.7%)..Ayton was of course over 60% as a rookie.

Robinson eclipsed 60% twice (barely) over his 14 year career. Only once higher than Ayton's rookie year

Ewing - barely got over 60% once but not as high as Ayton's rookie year

Shaq - He got over 60% 4x in 19 years...though his first two times were not as high as Ayton's rookie year. Oddly, his two highest TS% years were when he was 36 in Phx and 38 in Bos....only when playing on elite teams surrounded by stars....but likely attracting little defensive attention at that point in his career

TS% Career Averages:

Shaq - 58.6%
Robinson - 58.3%
Ewing - 55.3%
Olajuwon - 55.3%

So of Ayton and these 4, Ayton's career TS% is higher than these guys, two of them by a long shot....and no, none of these guys are just quality, but are elite centers, were in the 60%-70% range.

[bwgood77]

I asked this question in another thread but what's Ayton actually 'great' at offensively? Id say touch for a big is probably is best offensive trait and he's pretty good at a bunch of things but he's not really elite at anything.

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I think he's a great passer for a C. Not at the elite level like a Jokic, or even a Bam or Sabonis, but similar to the latter two about as many pro games in. I don't think he will need to pass as much as either of those latter two though, since the offense won't run through him with Booker around along with a PG.

I don't think too many guys 115 games or so into their career though are great at anything, especially if they are 1 and dones.

I think he's a pretty good passer, a pretty good shooter, a decent post game, decent rim runner. Like I was saying I think he's ok at a lot of things offensively but I don't think there's any one thing he currently is or projects to be great at in the future.

With his growth on D he can be a really nice useful player. I hope that he can accept that but if he feels like he needs to be a star that's where things could get a little dicey because I honestly don't see it.

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I think in the future he can be a great short range shooter, whether it be a hook shot or other...once he figures out what works best for him. I also think he will be a great rim runner once he works on that a bit. Again, I don't think 115 games into someone's career you necessarily can have that great of an idea of what they will be great at.

I mean, Booker, for example, after 2 or 3 years, people probably would have said he will probably eventually be a great finisher at the rim and getting to the line, and a very good, possibly great 3 pt shooter in games, but will be subpar from anywhere in between 3ft and the 3 pt line. People would have said he will be a decent passer...year 2 he averaged 3.4 apg and 3.1 turnovers per game.

However, in year 4, he skyrocketed from inside the arc all over, and his 3pt shooting dropped from 38% to 32%....and he has continued being solid inside the arc since then but has hovered between 32% and 35% from 3. Same with his passing, it got much better in years 4 and 5...much much better.

[NapoleonII]

Ever think that we're scorching from outside (both taking and making) partly BECAUSE of Ayton's finishing ability and inside presence? Even if we're not going to him or his shots are down.... because of how they're playing our 5?

I want Chris Paul and Ayton to develop the PnR together because he's a point god and I want more out of Ayton, but also because it'll scare defenses into sagging off Bridges/Crowder/CamJo. Over a season teams are going to start honing in our shooters and Ayton's PPG will go up. So calm the **** down.

His defense tho? It's possibly all-star level. I think he's the best shot changer/mobile perimeter defending big in the game right now.

[bigfoot]

Yeah, I'd rather him score low teens and our players hit a ton of open 3s than have him post up against defenders even if he was good at it, and try to score. The open 3 is just a better shot. Now if you can dominate the pick and roll and get the occasional open lane, lobs and putbacks, great. Amare didn't really post up much, but you didn't want him to. You wanted him to be a finisher or us to hit open 3s. I think Ayton could score his points as a combo of Amare's finishes (though not as good...but few people are) and Marion's put backs...and maybe a few 3s and short hook shots.

A number we need to follow closely is Ayton's true shooting percentage. Quality centers should be in the .600 to .700 range. Right now Ayton is sitting at .500.

Well, if you're looking for a high number of points, like more than what Ayton had last year and centers who shoot in the 60%+ range, your list is about 2 guys...Towns and Jokic.

Many of the other high scoring Cs have never eclipsed that or even come close. Since you like this extremely small sample size this year, you might point out that Embiid is a tad over 60% this year in his 4 games, and was somewhat close the last couple years.

Ayton is one of the only ones to have over a 60% TS% as a rookie, but once he started to attract so much defensive attention, it has gone down.

Really any star offensive players should have over 60%, and it's often easier for them to get there if it's on large volume if they can either hit the 3 at a high %, or hit the 2 at a high % like Booker, or get to the line a lot...(preferably two of those at least). Like Booker and Bridges did last year. And this year Bridges is at 73%.

But I don't put too much stock in this year's TS% only 5 games in...I imagine it improves. And I imagine Bridges comes down from 73% as well.

Ayton probably attracts more defensive attention down low than just about any C except maybe Embiid or Towns. But Towns plays mostly on the perimeter shooting 3s at a high % to get his crazy TS% and Jokic plays away from the rim too mostly. Not too many other bigs are doubled in there.

It's always been easy to do so against the Suns because we never had any 3 pt shooters who could hit better than 35-36%. This year that looks like it might change, so it might be harder to double when they know they will likely pay for it.

The sample size is 12 games. Since the bubble, Ayton has averaged about 14 points per game and his true shooting percentage is down. If you throw in the preseason as well it is probably worse. It's not hard to see Ayton's shots are going to other players and I'm just pointing out he will be hard-pressed to average 20 points per game.

[sunskerr]

You can discuss Ayton's lack of touches all you want. I already pointed out why in the Ayton thread- we're trying to make the playoffs. Please read that post. This isn't some mystery.

[TeamTragic]

You can discuss Ayton's lack of touches all you want. I already pointed out why in the Ayton thread- we're trying to make the playoffs. Please read that post. This isn't some mystery.

This is why Ayton is rebounding and playing defense. Everybody needs to calm down.

Teams win championships. Not single players.

[Fo-Real]

Aytons hands are worse than I thought, he rarely catches passes or rebounds cleanly!!!