2021 Playoff and Offseason Speculation - the playoffs. PLAYOFFS????

[bigfoot]

As usual, things got a bit sideways on the message board. The point is not his PPG, not if he averages 20 or any other arbitrary number, or gets 10 boards 2 blocks whatever. It's just that he sucked mightily on offense this year, while the expectation was that he will take a step forward. He SHOULD HAVE. (Well, at least most peoples expectation, Bigfoot being one of the doubters).
It wasn't about the team either. Yes we are good, but we thought we'd be good, we just added a HOF PG and a "perfect" strech 4 (for this team, in 2020, with the way BBall is played now). Heck, some of his "good" stats might be a byproduct of his good teammates.
Point is: so far he hasn't shown that he can be a legit No2 guy on a good team. In his 3rd year, with an elite PG. He regressed.
If he REALLY turns it around, I'll be happy as a pig in sht. I don't care wether it's 17 PTS or 23. I just cant really believe in him anymore.

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

[bwgood77]

A number we need to follow closely is Ayton's true shooting percentage. Quality centers should be in the .600 to .700 range. Right now Ayton is sitting at .500.

Well, if you're looking for a high number of points, like more than what Ayton had last year and centers who shoot in the 60%+ range, your list is about 2 guys...Towns and Jokic.

Many of the other high scoring Cs have never eclipsed that or even come close. Since you like this extremely small sample size this year, you might point out that Embiid is a tad over 60% this year in his 4 games, and was somewhat close the last couple years.

Ayton is one of the only ones to have over a 60% TS% as a rookie, but once he started to attract so much defensive attention, it has gone down.

Really any star offensive players should have over 60%, and it's often easier for them to get there if it's on large volume if they can either hit the 3 at a high %, or hit the 2 at a high % like Booker, or get to the line a lot...(preferably two of those at least). Like Booker and Bridges did last year. And this year Bridges is at 73%.

But I don't put too much stock in this year's TS% only 5 games in...I imagine it improves. And I imagine Bridges comes down from 73% as well.

Ayton probably attracts more defensive attention down low than just about any C except maybe Embiid or Towns. But Towns plays mostly on the perimeter shooting 3s at a high % to get his crazy TS% and Jokic plays away from the rim too mostly. Not too many other bigs are doubled in there.

It's always been easy to do so against the Suns because we never had any 3 pt shooters who could hit better than 35-36%. This year that looks like it might change, so it might be harder to double when they know they will likely pay for it.

The sample size is 12 games. Since the bubble, Ayton has averaged about 14 points per game and his true shooting percentage is down. If you throw in the preseason as well it is probably worse. It's not hard to see Ayton's shots are going to other players and I'm just pointing out he will be hard-pressed to average 20 points per game.

Oh, since you used 50% TS% I thought that was just for this year since that is exactly what it is. Surprised it was exactly that in the bubble too.

Oh wait, it wasn't. It was somewhere between 51% and 86%...probably around 60% in the bubble. Part of this decrease is also due to him shooting more 3s, which is something they want him to do.

[bwgood77]

Aytons hands are worse than I thought, he rarely catches passes or rebounds cleanly!!!

He has some of the best hands in the league. That's been one of his strengths. Sure, maybe him and CP3 may have been off a bit to start the season but Ayton is very good at securing rebounds, catching and hanging onto the ball.

[Bogyo]

As usual, things got a bit sideways on the message board. The point is not his PPG, not if he averages 20 or any other arbitrary number, or gets 10 boards 2 blocks whatever. It's just that he sucked mightily on offense this year, while the expectation was that he will take a step forward. He SHOULD HAVE. (Well, at least most peoples expectation, Bigfoot being one of the doubters).
It wasn't about the team either. Yes we are good, but we thought we'd be good, we just added a HOF PG and a "perfect" strech 4 (for this team, in 2020, with the way BBall is played now). Heck, some of his "good" stats might be a byproduct of his good teammates.
Point is: so far he hasn't shown that he can be a legit No2 guy on a good team. In his 3rd year, with an elite PG. He regressed.
If he REALLY turns it around, I'll be happy as a pig in sht. I don't care wether it's 17 PTS or 23. I just cant really believe in him anymore.

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

[Qwigglez]

After seeing how much Bridges improved offensively, along with Cam Johnson, I no longer care if Ayton becomes this dominant big man. If he becomes a hybrid of Al Horford and Rudy Gobert, I really don't mind. He's put in the work defensively, and he deters a lot of shots, stats that don't exactly show up on the typical stat page unless you are looking at advanced stuff.

One thing I am a bit worrisome of is if Bridges get an extension this off-season and we want to hold out and wait for DA to hit RFA. That would create a lot of turmoil going into next season. Though I think Bridges is worth more than Ayton and should get a bigger paycheck I think we should hit them both with extensions hopefully within the same week this offseason.

[handsome salary]

It is so **** weird to see the Suns name in the standings with the NBA's best record (conference and league) and the biggest point differential.

**** weird.

Kinda like the last time they brought in a old PG to pair with a second year coach.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

As usual, things got a bit sideways on the message board. The point is not his PPG, not if he averages 20 or any other arbitrary number, or gets 10 boards 2 blocks whatever. It's just that he sucked mightily on offense this year, while the expectation was that he will take a step forward. He SHOULD HAVE. (Well, at least most peoples expectation, Bigfoot being one of the doubters).
It wasn't about the team either. Yes we are good, but we thought we'd be good, we just added a HOF PG and a "perfect" strech 4 (for this team, in 2020, with the way BBall is played now). Heck, some of his "good" stats might be a byproduct of his good teammates.
Point is: so far he hasn't shown that he can be a legit No2 guy on a good team. In his 3rd year, with an elite PG. He regressed.
If he REALLY turns it around, I'll be happy as a pig in sht. I don't care wether it's 17 PTS or 23. I just cant really believe in him anymore.

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

Here's the thing, though. If we win a championship because of his talent, why do I care whether he's perceived as the best or third best player in his draft? As Chuck always says (and he would know), defense wins championships. And they say this is a guard's game these days, but it seems to me the best defensive weapon in today's game is a legit center who can check wings and guards on the perimeter. And the list of guys who can do that is basically just Deandre and AD.

Other DA pluses I'd like to note. He doesn't attempt a lot of them, but DA's no-hesi turnaround J to the baseline has been butter so far this year. We also don't talk enough about how durable he is. He plays a steady and relatively risk-free style of play, which is a blessing. Personally, I wouldn't trade him for Towns.

[Revived]

After seeing how much Bridges improved offensively, along with Cam Johnson, I no longer care if Ayton becomes this dominant big man.

Read on Twitter

I saw this tweet the other day which kinda says what you said and yeah I agree with it as well. We got ourselves a star player from the 2018 draft, it just happens to be Bridges lol. Ayton can be a stud defensively though if he can maintain it consistently.

One thing I am a bit worrisome of is if Bridges get an extension this off-season and we want to hold out and wait for DA to hit RFA. That would create a lot of turmoil going into next season. Though I think Bridges is worth more than Ayton and should get a bigger paycheck I think we should hit them both with extensions hopefully within the same week this offseason.

Eh, I’m sure Ayton and all other players know by now that Bridges is getting a 4 yr $75/$80M deal the first day that he’s eligible for it next summer.

And I’m sure Ayton knows he hasn’t played well enough to be worth anywhere close to that $$. Best scenario with Ayton is to let him play out his contract and hit RFA and then we match whatever contract he gets. His market is gonna be somewhat bleak because most teams in ‘22 don’t need Cs and the ones that do won’t have the cap space to overpay for one either. Suns will hold the leverage once he hits RFA and can sign him to a team friendly deal so we don’t destroy future cap flexibility. Bigs simply aren’t valued as much in the league compared to 2 way perimeter players and the Suns should leverage that.

[Bogyo]

^^If we get Mikal for 4/80 I'll pop some bubble.

[Crives]

After seeing how much Bridges improved offensively, along with Cam Johnson, I no longer care if Ayton becomes this dominant big man. If he becomes a hybrid of Al Horford and Rudy Gobert, I really don't mind. He's put in the work defensively, and he deters a lot of shots, stats that don't exactly show up on the typical stat page unless you are looking at advanced stuff.

One thing I am a bit worrisome of is if Bridges get an extension this off-season and we want to hold out and wait for DA to hit RFA. That would create a lot of turmoil going into next season. Though I think Bridges is worth more than Ayton and should get a bigger paycheck I think we should hit them both with extensions hopefully within the same week this offseason.

If we finish the season with the top defense, Ayton will be worth a mini max. That means Ayton and Bridges would be at least 2nd team all defense and Ayton would likely be a DPOY favorite.

[phx#7]

Aytons hands are worse than I thought, he rarely catches passes or rebounds cleanly!!!

He has some of the best hands in the league. That's been one of his strengths. Sure, maybe him and CP3 may have been off a bit to start the season but Ayton is very good at securing rebounds, catching and hanging onto the ball.

I think Amare spoiled a lot of us with the way he cleanly picked anything thrown near him. I was complaining about Ayton's hands during the bubble play too with some bobbled passes. I just need to accept that Amare likely had some of the best hands the league has ever seen. Ayton did have a really nice 1 hand pluck surrounded by 2 defenders last night when Booker went up for a shot and passed at the last second.

[bwgood77]

Aytons hands are worse than I thought, he rarely catches passes or rebounds cleanly!!!

He has some of the best hands in the league. That's been one of his strengths. Sure, maybe him and CP3 may have been off a bit to start the season but Ayton is very good at securing rebounds, catching and hanging onto the ball.

I think Amare spoiled a lot of us with the way he cleanly picked anything thrown near him. I was complaining about Ayton's hands during the bubble play too with some bobbled passes. I just need to accept that Amare likely had some of the best hands the league has ever seen. Ayton did have a really nice 1 hand pluck surrounded by 2 defenders last night when Booker went up for a shot and passed at the last second.

Yeah, I remember even Shaq, after shaking Amare's hands after his breakout season, said " this guy is the future of the league" as he was well aware that hands that big gave you so much ease at just palming it like it would be a little ball for us with little chance of it being knocked out.....

That being said, watching Ayton in college and through his first two seasons, he has some of the best hands I've seen, and I've always thought it was one of his biggest strengths along with rebounding, which also has to do with having good hands to an extent. He has also not played with others who box out well most of his time here.

I think him having an occasional problem now just has to do with Paul being one of those guys that gets you the ball so quickly and with no look passes or behind the back stuff that you just always have to be ready.....and Booker just simply does not throw very good passes, usually way off the mark....often a guy like Bridges has to practicall jump as high as he can or near out of bounds to catch them.

Book now leading the NBA with 35 turnovers. Next most is 27.

[suns12345]

He has some of the best hands in the league. That's been one of his strengths. Sure, maybe him and CP3 may have been off a bit to start the season but Ayton is very good at securing rebounds, catching and hanging onto the ball.

I think Amare spoiled a lot of us with the way he cleanly picked anything thrown near him. I was complaining about Ayton's hands during the bubble play too with some bobbled passes. I just need to accept that Amare likely had some of the best hands the league has ever seen. Ayton did have a really nice 1 hand pluck surrounded by 2 defenders last night when Booker went up for a shot and passed at the last second.

Yeah, I remember even Shaq, after shaking Amare's hands after his breakout season, said " this guy is the future of the league" as he was well aware that hands that big gave you so much ease at just palming it like it would be a little ball for us with little chance of it being knocked out.....

That being said, watching Ayton in college and through his first two seasons, he has some of the best hands I've seen, and I've always thought it was one of his biggest strengths along with rebounding, which also has to do with having good hands to an extent. He has also not played with others who box out well most of his time here.

I think him having an occasional problem now just has to do with Paul being one of those guys that gets you the ball so quickly and with no look passes or behind the back stuff that you just always have to be ready.....and Booker just simply does not throw very good passes, usually way off the mark....often a guy like Bridges has to practicall jump as high as he can or near out of bounds to catch them.

Book now leading the NBA with 35 turnovers. Next most is 27.

Its interesting with Ayton's hands, I think they are good. However, per the eye test they seemed best when he was a rookie and they have regressed slightly since. Perhaps a slight confidence thing i'm not sure. That said, I think he is capable of catching everything as his career progresses.

[bwgood77]

I think Amare spoiled a lot of us with the way he cleanly picked anything thrown near him. I was complaining about Ayton's hands during the bubble play too with some bobbled passes. I just need to accept that Amare likely had some of the best hands the league has ever seen. Ayton did have a really nice 1 hand pluck surrounded by 2 defenders last night when Booker went up for a shot and passed at the last second.

Yeah, I remember even Shaq, after shaking Amare's hands after his breakout season, said " this guy is the future of the league" as he was well aware that hands that big gave you so much ease at just palming it like it would be a little ball for us with little chance of it being knocked out.....

That being said, watching Ayton in college and through his first two seasons, he has some of the best hands I've seen, and I've always thought it was one of his biggest strengths along with rebounding, which also has to do with having good hands to an extent. He has also not played with others who box out well most of his time here.

I think him having an occasional problem now just has to do with Paul being one of those guys that gets you the ball so quickly and with no look passes or behind the back stuff that you just always have to be ready.....and Booker just simply does not throw very good passes, usually way off the mark....often a guy like Bridges has to practicall jump as high as he can or near out of bounds to catch them.

Book now leading the NBA with 35 turnovers. Next most is 27.

Its interesting with Ayton's hands, I think they are good. However, per the eye test they seemed best when he was a rookie and they have regressed slightly since. Perhaps a slight confidence thing i'm not sure. That said, I think he is capable of catching everything as his career progresses.

I think it's in part to changing PGs each year, and with each one, you get more unexpected passes being that they are great passers who do no look or fancy passes they may not expect, often through traffic...it will just take some getting used to.

[schnakenpopanz]

Beside getting Chris Paul which is a good move so far. I guess with Rubio it might have been good either.
The key to the recent success is getting rid of Oubre.
He did not fit my needs for a high iq, tema first player. He is a negative on the court.
I had the same observations with thers who might look good on numbers, but did not stand the eye tes. (Bledsoe for example)
So Cam and Bridges are the main reasons things are looking good right now.

[Slim Charless]

As usual, things got a bit sideways on the message board. The point is not his PPG, not if he averages 20 or any other arbitrary number, or gets 10 boards 2 blocks whatever. It's just that he sucked mightily on offense this year, while the expectation was that he will take a step forward. He SHOULD HAVE. (Well, at least most peoples expectation, Bigfoot being one of the doubters).
It wasn't about the team either. Yes we are good, but we thought we'd be good, we just added a HOF PG and a "perfect" strech 4 (for this team, in 2020, with the way BBall is played now). Heck, some of his "good" stats might be a byproduct of his good teammates.
Point is: so far he hasn't shown that he can be a legit No2 guy on a good team. In his 3rd year, with an elite PG. He regressed.
If he REALLY turns it around, I'll be happy as a pig in sht. I don't care wether it's 17 PTS or 23. I just cant really believe in him anymore.

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

4th or 5th?

I'm curious who you have higher. Besides Trae and Luka, Ayton is the best player as I don't see JJJ as better and he's out for possibly the rest of this year anyway with a serious knee injury. Bagley-no. MPJ would be the only possible anwer I guess, but his injury history is and was back then-very scary. We already have Bridges so I'm not counting him.

[bwgood77]

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

4th or 5th?

I'm curious who you have higher. Besides Trae and Luka, Ayton is the best player as I don't see JJJ as better and he's out for possibly the rest of this year anyway with a serious knee injury. Bagley-no. MPJ would be the only possible anwer I guess, but his injury history is and was back then-very scary. We already have Bridges so I'm not counting him.

SGA is the other one that has an argument, but he can't really hit the 3 and isn't a very good defender, so I'd probably still have Ayton ahead of him.

I think people would be far more disappointed had we taken Bagley, Bamba, WCJ, JJJ or even Shai over him. And we had taken so many busts when there were way better players in the draft taken after, that I'm glad we got such a good player and not one of those other guys.

Sure, I wanted Doncic, and I did have Trae ranked 3rd, but I have moved on from the Doncic stuff and think Trae also has his weaknesses,though he is even much better than I expected.

[Slim Charless]

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

4th or 5th?

I'm curious who you have higher. Besides Trae and Luka, Ayton is the best player as I don't see JJJ as better and he's out for possibly the rest of this year anyway with a serious knee injury. Bagley-no. MPJ would be the only possible anwer I guess, but his injury history is and was back then-very scary. We already have Bridges so I'm not counting him.

SGA is the other one that has an argument, but he can't really hit the 3 and isn't a very good defender, so I'd probably still have Ayton ahead of him.

I think people would be far more disappointed had we taken Bagley, Bamba, WCJ, JJJ or even Shai over him. And we had taken so many busts when there were way better players in the draft taken after, that I'm glad we got such a good player and not one of those other guys.

Sure, I wanted Doncic, and I did have Trae ranked 3rd, but I have moved on from the Doncic stuff and think Trae also has his weaknesses,though he is even much better than I expected.

Yeah. He was the only other guy that had a case, but like you said much worse defensively and his percentages are all down across the board as well.

JJJ was doing good before his injury but even then I still had Ayton as a better player as he was getting more boards and just as many points while being again, a superior defender.

I think we have to come to terms that he won't be Luka, but if he can become a constant all NBA defensive team guy while adding in the occasional DPOY- I call that a win.

If we can get a guy that can put up a (MUCH) better scoring version of 01-05 Ben Wallace with the added bonus of being able to harass guards, I might even call that better than Trae.

[bwgood77]

4th or 5th?

I'm curious who you have higher. Besides Trae and Luka, Ayton is the best player as I don't see JJJ as better and he's out for possibly the rest of this year anyway with a serious knee injury. Bagley-no. MPJ would be the only possible anwer I guess, but his injury history is and was back then-very scary. We already have Bridges so I'm not counting him.

SGA is the other one that has an argument, but he can't really hit the 3 and isn't a very good defender, so I'd probably still have Ayton ahead of him.

I think people would be far more disappointed had we taken Bagley, Bamba, WCJ, JJJ or even Shai over him. And we had taken so many busts when there were way better players in the draft taken after, that I'm glad we got such a good player and not one of those other guys.

Sure, I wanted Doncic, and I did have Trae ranked 3rd, but I have moved on from the Doncic stuff and think Trae also has his weaknesses,though he is even much better than I expected.

Yeah. He was the only other guy that had a case, but like you said much worse defensively and his percentages are all down across the board as well.

JJJ was doing good before his injury but even then I still had Ayton as a better player as he was getting more boards and just as many points while being again, a superior defender.

I think we have to come to terms that he won't be Luka, but if he can become a constant all NBA defensive team guy while adding in the occasional DPOY- I call that a win.

If we can get a guy that can put up a (MUCH) better scoring version of 01-05 Ben Wallace with the added bonus of being able to harass guards, I might even call that better than Trae.

Well, an "occasional DPOY" is a pretty tall order. If he can be an occasional all defensive 1st or 2nd team and be a 12 board, high efficient offensive player, and possibly avg 20+ points within a few seasons as well as be able to stretch the floor, I'd be happy. If he can average 3+ assists that would be nice too.

[Bogyo]

I think his trajectory is a slightly better Gobert which is nothing to stick our noses up at. I could deal with a 17/13/2 center instead of a 20/10 version

I could live with that. I mean I'd still be a bit pissed that he is the 4th-5th best player from his draft, while he has all the potential, the tools and the right coaches, teammates, etc to be top 2, but hey, that's life. If his attitude changes as he matures, and he signs for a home town discount (getting his 2nd, large contract asap), I'd actually be happy with him. We'll see in a year or 2.

4th or 5th?

I'm curious who you have higher. Besides Trae and Luka, Ayton is the best player as I don't see JJJ as better and he's out for possibly the rest of this year anyway with a serious knee injury. Bagley-no. MPJ would be the only possible anwer I guess, but his injury history is and was back then-very scary. We already have Bridges so I'm not counting him.

It was a bit hypothetical scenario. And I have counted Bridges, as he was in the same draft. So he is 4th right now in my book. So if one of Bagley, JJJ, MPJ, SGA makes takes a leap infront of him he'll be 5th now. Dunno what will happen in 10yrs though.

And again, it's not really fully about if he is 3rd or 7th best from his class in 10-15 years, but about him having all the potential, all the tools, all the coaches, etc... to reach his full ceiling, but he chooses to settle for a lot less. Being Gobertish instead of Robinsonish or Duncanish, becouse that's a lot less work, and more than enough money for him and his family.