Tank World Order

[Johnny Bball]

You think Masai wouldn't have drafted Barrett where the knicks did? There's a reason why there's usually mo surprises in the top 5 and very few in the top 10. Every team has pretty much the same ranking that high in the draft give or take a couple minor exceptions.

The real differences between team prospect rankings occur in the later picks and the second round.

A cab driver with the latest issue of sports illustrated could draft in the top 5 and have just as good a chance as anyone else. It's luck.

you guys can't decide between "Masai is gOD, 100 stats in scouting" or "drafting is a crap shoot".

are you saying Masai is only good at gauging low end talents with limited ceiling, like the ones you find in 2nd round or undrafted?

Here's an illustration:

The 3 teams with the top 3 picks all rank the top 3 players exactly the same.

Pick one is a bust. Pick two is an allstar. But pick 3 ends up being a franchise player.

Ppl want to say the team that picked 3rd is the best drafting team. But that's NOT the case at all. There is no discernable way to rank the teams in drafting ability because their rankings were identical. The third team just got lucky because they happened to fall in the correct position in the sequencing of picks.

All 3 teams would have ended up with the franchise player if they picked 3rd.

I will say one thing about this. I think the Raptors put work ethic and character way in front. I would bet they interview in a very different way that gives you answers without asking specific questions. Not all teams would use a test, and I'm not sure you could make draftees write one (like DISC ec.), but there are other ways around that to determine what people are like. The interpretation and follow up questions are so key there though after the first evaluation, so you can even use this method and be bad at it.

I'm going to say this is a certainty, because they keep finding those same people.

Now... nobody here is privy to any of that... so whatever they guess right.... pure luck.

Once you understand that matters outside or great talent more than most things, when the talent level is close... well it's easier. But there are at least two guys here that specifically would not value high character and would take the best talent and waste the pick.

[Steelo Green]

you guys can't decide between "Masai is gOD, 100 stats in scouting" or "drafting is a crap shoot".

are you saying Masai is only good at gauging low end talents with limited ceiling, like the ones you find in 2nd round or undrafted?

Here's an illustration:

The 3 teams with the top 3 picks all rank the top 3 players exactly the same.

Pick one is a bust. Pick two is an allstar. But pick 3 ends up being a franchise player.

Ppl want to say the team that picked 3rd is the best drafting team. But that's NOT the case at all. There is no discernable way to rank the teams in drafting ability because their rankings were identical. The third team just got lucky because they happened to fall in the correct position in the sequencing of picks.

All 3 teams would have ended up with the franchise player if they picked 3rd.

I will say one thing about this. I think the Raptors put work ethic and character way in front. I would bet they interview in a very different way that gives you answers without asking specific questions. Not all teams would use a test, and I'm not sure you could make draftees write one (like DISC ec.), but there are other ways around that to determine what people are like. The interpretation and follow up questions are so key there though after the first evaluation, so you can even use this method and be bad at it.

I'm going to say this is a certainty, because they keep finding those same people.

Now... nobody here is privy to any of that... so whatever they guess right.... pure luck.

Once you understand that matters outside or great talent more than most things, when the talent level is close... well it's easier. But there are at least two guys here that specifically would not value high character and would take the best talent and waste the pick.

Afraid to say the names so as to not have your argument debunked in a few words.

Pascal - the player you were defending, didn't pick up a basketball for 4 months, tried to trip Embiid in the playoffs, said he had personal issues going on in the bubble, and then he was just disciplined for an attitude problem

Maybe instead of pointing the fingers at others, you should look at yourself and your evaluation of people and their psyche.

High character guys lol. So what, you wouldn't draft Lebron because was immature? Or sign him after the decision? We have supported Kyle who has been a headcase since the day he got here, the guy who was going to hold out, was ready to leave and only came back because Masai paid him

So much for high character guys you keep talking about. Yeah, if we have abusers, let's not draft them, but if they have some attitude problems or have hubris about themselves, then if they are that good you can work with it.

And the organization clearly has an eye for high character guys in TD, or an egotistical Fred who said I am not a bench player.

So bad man, try again

[Johnny Bball]

Here's an illustration:

The 3 teams with the top 3 picks all rank the top 3 players exactly the same.

Pick one is a bust. Pick two is an allstar. But pick 3 ends up being a franchise player.

Ppl want to say the team that picked 3rd is the best drafting team. But that's NOT the case at all. There is no discernable way to rank the teams in drafting ability because their rankings were identical. The third team just got lucky because they happened to fall in the correct position in the sequencing of picks.

All 3 teams would have ended up with the franchise player if they picked 3rd.

I will say one thing about this. I think the Raptors put work ethic and character way in front. I would bet they interview in a very different way that gives you answers without asking specific questions. Not all teams would use a test, and I'm not sure you could make draftees write one (like DISC ec.), but there are other ways around that to determine what people are like. The interpretation and follow up questions are so key there though after the first evaluation, so you can even use this method and be bad at it.

I'm going to say this is a certainty, because they keep finding those same people.

Now... nobody here is privy to any of that... so whatever they guess right.... pure luck.

Once you understand that matters outside or great talent more than most things, when the talent level is close... well it's easier. But there are at least two guys here that specifically would not value high character and would take the best talent and waste the pick.

Afraid to say the names so as to not have your argument debunked in a few words.

Pascal - the player you were defending, didn't pick up a basketball for 4 months, tried to trip Embiid in the playoffs, said he had personal issues going on in the bubble, and then he was just disciplined for an attitude problem

Maybe instead of pointing the fingers at others, you should look at yourself and your evaluation of people and their psyche.

High character guys lol. So what, you wouldn't draft Lebron because was immature? Or sign him after the decision? We have supported Kyle who has been a headcase since the day he got here, the guy who was going to hold out, was ready to leave and only came back because Masai paid him

So much for high character guys you keep talking about. Yeah, if we have abusers, let's not draft them, but if they have some attitude problems or have hubris about themselves, then if they are that good you can work with it.

And the organization clearly has an eye for high character guys in TD, or an egotistical Fred who said I am not a bench player.

So bad man, try again

Once again... you just make up **** that people didn't say to start and argument. Nothing new here. No real point, make it up and pile on. Always the same useless **** posting.

And no I wasn't talking about you, but now we can make it 3 since you see no value in character. Obvious anyway I guess.

[Danny1616]

I piss on TWO.

I **** on them.

I thought after the blatant homophobic remarks earlier in this thread people would chill out, but this is awful. I thought with a New Year we would all be doing better.

Winnie the Pooh being a snowflake once again?

[Danny1616]

Smh @ mdenny, you need to stop stating everyone has the same top 5 as a fact when that's simply YOUR opinion.

A perfect example of this is when Jamal Murray somewhat fell in the draft when most boards I seen had him in it yet somehow Kris Dunn was selected before him. Heck even THIS past draft the Bulls selected Patrick Williams who most certainly was NOT an unanimous top 5 pick and why is that?! Because different management teams value different things.

Also saying tanking doesn't work is a complete falsehood. Again it works if you have a competent management group in place. You're telling me had the Sixers picked either or BOTH Prozingis AND Tatum they wouldn't be an absolute monster?!

Heck do you completely forget about OKC Thunder??

With competent management they were able to draft 3 MVPs (Westbrook being another guy who wasn't a unanimous top 5 pick) onto a single roster but their management was too cheap to hold on to them. The Warriors who dominated half a decade got both Steph and Klay in the lottery (Steph being yet ANOTHER example that there's not unanimous top 5 with MIN (bad management) passing on him). Even now PHX could have very easily selected Luka (especially when they had his coach at the time lol), Murray, Fox, Bam, Hachimura (if they hadn't traded it MIN), Haliburton this year...they could've been absolutely loaded BUT they've had bad scouting and management which is not the case here. Pretty much all you're saying is on false assumptions based on bad management/scouting departments.

The response will be well OKC didn't win so it doesn't matter

They drafted 3 MVPs, and ownership didn't pay Harden the money.

They did everything you could do to build a contender, and did it the right way.

As though people would not take the 7 years they had of KD and WB and the first few of Harden lol. That was truly exciting. With better management, they have 3 titles.

We just had 6 years of perennial 50+ win teams that had pretty much the same success in the playoffs (but with a championship).

[metafisical]

Smh @ mdenny, you need to stop stating everyone has the same top 5 as a fact when that's simply YOUR opinion.

A perfect example of this is when Jamal Murray somewhat fell in the draft when most boards I seen had him in it yet somehow Kris Dunn was selected before him. Heck even THIS past draft the Bulls selected Patrick Williams who most certainly was NOT an unanimous top 5 pick and why is that?! Because different management teams value different things.

Also saying tanking doesn't work is a complete falsehood. Again it works if you have a competent management group in place. You're telling me had the Sixers picked either or BOTH Prozingis AND Tatum they wouldn't be an absolute monster?!

Heck do you completely forget about OKC Thunder??

With competent management they were able to draft 3 MVPs (Westbrook being another guy who wasn't a unanimous top 5 pick) onto a single roster but their management was too cheap to hold on to them. The Warriors who dominated half a decade got both Steph and Klay in the lottery (Steph being yet ANOTHER example that there's not unanimous top 5 with MIN (bad management) passing on him). Even now PHX could have very easily selected Luka (especially when they had his coach at the time lol), Murray, Fox, Bam, Hachimura (if they hadn't traded it MIN), Haliburton this year...they could've been absolutely loaded BUT they've had bad scouting and management which is not the case here. Pretty much all you're saying is on false assumptions based on bad management/scouting departments.

The response will be well OKC didn't win so it doesn't matter

They drafted 3 MVPs, and ownership didn't pay Harden the money.

They did everything you could do to build a contender, and did it the right way.

As though people would not take the 7 years they had of KD and WB and the first few of Harden lol. That was truly exciting. With better management, they have 3 titles.

We just had 6 years of perennial 50+ win teams that had pretty much the same success in the playoffs (but with a championship).

6 years, many of which were due to our lottery picks like DeRozan and JV. Our lottery picks helped us obtain a championship team by trading them away for Kawhi and Gasol.

Lottery picks don't exactly have to develop into stars -- we can trade them for stars given the right conditions.

Lottery picks are great.

[Darkseid]

If you ever meet a TWO Raptors "fan"

Choke them. Take their belongings. Leave them naked on the streets. They'll like it cause then they can embrace a real life tank.

But they have no place among Raptors fan.

We ride or die with this team.

Inappropriate comment. Warned
niQ

[halifax]

the 50+ win era is not over (unless the season reduces number of games played)

[ATLTimekeeper]

The response will be well OKC didn't win so it doesn't matter

They drafted 3 MVPs, and ownership didn't pay Harden the money.

They did everything you could do to build a contender, and did it the right way.

As though people would not take the 7 years they had of KD and WB and the first few of Harden lol. That was truly exciting. With better management, they have 3 titles.

We just had 6 years of perennial 50+ win teams that had pretty much the same success in the playoffs (but with a championship).

6 years, many of which were due to our lottery picks like DeRozan and JV. Our lottery picks helped us obtain a championship team by trading them away for Kawhi and Gasol.

Lottery picks don't exactly have to develop into stars -- we can trade them for stars given the right conditions.

Lottery picks are great.

I'll dismiss this thought process, too.

The Raptors lottery picks were only valuable because they won a lot of games. Without those wins, DeMar isn't valuable enough to bring in Kawhi, and JV isn't valuable enough to bring in Marc Gasol. And Kawhi and Gasol aren't worth pursuing if the team isn't already very good. So, in saying that, Siakam is a valuable trade asset because he's an all-star, much like DeMar. And OG Anunoby is a more valuable trade asset today than JV was when he was moved for Marc Gasol. That's just how it works. You lose, everyone's value goes down. You win, everyone's value goes up. Try and picture realistic trades the Spurs and Grizzlies could make right now for DeMar and JV, or even a year ago.

The Raptors can't use Stanley Johnson and Alex Len as the key pieces to bring back a special player, either, so we know that lottery picks aren't great as a general statement.

[ATLTimekeeper]

If the season ended and the Raptors finish 6-8 with a swift first round exit. How memorable and enjoyable would that be?

Or the Raptors tank and actually get a young promising piece to build towards the future. Even more beneficial as the team isn't even playing before fans or at home so it's not like they're at the arena watching the team rack up the Ls.

It wasn't enjoyable when they were swept by Washington, either. Should they have blown the team up after that?

[planetmars]

The response will be well OKC didn't win so it doesn't matter

They drafted 3 MVPs, and ownership didn't pay Harden the money.

They did everything you could do to build a contender, and did it the right way.

As though people would not take the 7 years they had of KD and WB and the first few of Harden lol. That was truly exciting. With better management, they have 3 titles.

We just had 6 years of perennial 50+ win teams that had pretty much the same success in the playoffs (but with a championship).

6 years, many of which were due to our lottery picks like DeRozan and JV. Our lottery picks helped us obtain a championship team by trading them away for Kawhi and Gasol.

Lottery picks don't exactly have to develop into stars -- we can trade them for stars given the right conditions.

Lottery picks are great.

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

[ATLTimekeeper]

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

It's not even that reliable. The Raptors under Ujiri have had 6 first round picks.

Bruno - bust
Delon - role player
Poeltl - role player
Siakam - all-star
Anunoby - starter
Flynn - tbd

Even the guys that know what they're doing, apparently, don't know what they're doing. In the year they took Poeltl in the draft, they ended up with two players better than Poeltl later on (one undrafted). And Poeltl is the kind of guy you can get for the MLE.

[Steelo Green]

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

It's not even that reliable. The Raptors under Ujiri have had 6 first round picks.

Bruno - bust
Delon - role player
Poeltl - role player
Siakam - all-star
Anunoby - starter
Flynn - tbd

Even the guys that know what they're doing, apparently, don't know what they're doing. In the year they took Poeltl in the draft, they ended up with two players better than Poeltl later on (one undrafted). And Poeltl is the kind of guy you can get for the MLE.

Right so let’s judge one lottery pick, which everyone says can always be a bust, and a bunch of late first rounders to make a judgement, and not the decades of lottery picks leading their teams to titles and say that the one player in NBA history to lead his team to a title who was the only non lottery pick, is the model (though he was picked one pick outside the lottery).

There’s empirical evidence over time, and then there’s a small sample trying to prove cause and effect.

Yes - let’s gauge one lottery pick, that too the 9th one to shoe it’s a crap shoot.

This bait and switch tactic is so weak and it’s been debunked and explained a plethora of times.

[planetmars]

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

It's not even that reliable. The Raptors under Ujiri have had 6 first round picks.

Bruno - bust
Delon - role player
Poeltl - role player
Siakam - all-star
Anunoby - starter
Flynn - tbd

Even the guys that know what they're doing, apparently, don't know what they're doing. In the year they took Poeltl in the draft, they ended up with two players better than Poeltl later on (one undrafted). And Poeltl is the kind of guy you can get for the MLE.

Right so let’s judge one lottery pick, which everyone says can always be a bust, and a bunch of late first rounders to make a judgement, and not the decades of lottery picks leading their teams to titles and say that the one player in NBA history to lead his team to a title who was the only non lottery pick, is the model (though he was picked one pick outside the lottery).

There’s empirical evidence over time, and then there’s a small sample trying to prove cause and effect.

Yes - let’s gauge one lottery pick, that too the 9th one to shoe it’s a crap shoot.

This bait and switch tactic is so weak and it’s been debunked and explained a plethora of times.

I've been keeping an eye on this debate and it just goes round and round in circles. It's pretty exhausting. Yes most super stars are drafted in the lottery. There are exceptions but those are rare.

But how many of those lottery picks that became super stars are still with the team that drafted them when they won a chip? Of course names like Bird, Magic, MJ, Hakeem, Duncan keep being mentioned. Yet the CBA changed creating short term deals. And the player empowerment era grew. Guys like Dirk and Kobe are so rare. Heck even Karl Malone and Steve Nash wanted to chase a ring in LA before they retired and they played when stars stayed.

But lottery picks are important because we need them to trade for stars (like we did Kawhi and Gasol). But our drafting record proved that you don't need a lottery pick to get a lottery level talent (top 14 in their draft class).

But you need a lottery pick, because those are the stars.

It's exhausting.

There is no one right way to manage a team. They can all work.. but invariably the decision to tank is usually only an option when the team flat out sucks. In the first 20 games of the season they are at or below .500. That's when big decisions get made. They aren't made after 4 games in a weird ass season. Especially when other teams that are supposed to be good are doing poorly themselves after 4 games (like Denver, Dallas, Miami, Boston).

[Psubs]

Bruno is a role player, that got cut along with McKinnie and the space was used to pick up Chris Boucher.

[Skeezo]

If you ever meet a TWO Raptors "fan"

Choke them. Take their belongings. Leave them naked on the streets. They'll like it cause then they can embrace a real life tank.

But they have no place among Raptors fan.

We ride or die with this team.

I actually see it as the reverse... TWO seems to be more concerned with loyalty toward the team and its future, while those who want to hang on to the past are more concerned with loyalty toward the player (Lowry)

We are in a star-driven league and make no mistake there are those in this forum who would give Lowry anything he desires in the final years of his career even if its at the deteriment of the organization later on. Now I'm not as absolutist or tribal in saying those people have no place amoung Raptor fans, but I would certainly make an argument that their priority isn't to ride or die with the "team"

[mdenny]

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

It's not even that reliable. The Raptors under Ujiri have had 6 first round picks.

Bruno - bust
Delon - role player
Poeltl - role player
Siakam - all-star
Anunoby - starter
Flynn - tbd

Even the guys that know what they're doing, apparently, don't know what they're doing. In the year they took Poeltl in the draft, they ended up with two players better than Poeltl later on (one undrafted). And Poeltl is the kind of guy you can get for the MLE.

If the implication is that this list of Masai picks isn't good than it's incorrect. This is an elite package of picks. Ppl really have to go scan over the entire first round of drafts from 3 to 6 years ago. Even getting a decent role player is a relative success. Drafting is such a dicey venture.

I think there was another thread which linked to a mathematical analysis of draft proficiency. Wish I could find it. Anyone know where it is?

Pretty sure toronto was on the top of the list. I think ppl would be shocked by how many first rounders don't ever even get regular playing time. Anything at the level of 6th to 9th bench player status and above is a relative success. If the list of 6 masai picks underwhelm someone than they don't have an accurate perception of how the large majority of draft picks turn out.

[Raptaz]

Does the raptors need to fire nurse to start the tank?

Isn't he near the top in winning %

[ATLTimekeeper]

Lottery picks can be great as tradeable assets.. but what also helps is not having a lottery pick, drafting someone who should have been in the lottery but wasn't. Because at the end of the day, it's really the same thing.

Every Raptor player drafted by Masai in the first round other than Bruno was arguably in the top 14 of their draft class. You can even add Fred, Norm and Davis to that list and they were either undrafted or second rounders. Flynn is still too early to tell of course.

I mean I would think someone like Fred has more trade value than Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender. Both those guys were unanimous lottery picks.. I clearly remember since we had a lottery pick that year. Actually is Bender still in the league?

It's not even that reliable. The Raptors under Ujiri have had 6 first round picks.

Bruno - bust
Delon - role player
Poeltl - role player
Siakam - all-star
Anunoby - starter
Flynn - tbd

Even the guys that know what they're doing, apparently, don't know what they're doing. In the year they took Poeltl in the draft, they ended up with two players better than Poeltl later on (one undrafted). And Poeltl is the kind of guy you can get for the MLE.

Right so let’s judge one lottery pick, which everyone says can always be a bust, and a bunch of late first rounders to make a judgement, and not the decades of lottery picks leading their teams to titles and say that the one player in NBA history to lead his team to a title who was the only non lottery pick, is the model (though he was picked one pick outside the lottery).

There’s empirical evidence over time, and then there’s a small sample trying to prove cause and effect.

Yes - let’s gauge one lottery pick, that too the 9th one to shoe it’s a crap shoot.

This bait and switch tactic is so weak and it’s been debunked and explained a plethora of times.

No, you misunderstood. I gave one specific example, but previously I have given many examples. You also have not given empirical evidence, you've given a few examples (like, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan and even Bill Russell), spanning several decades as proof that tanking works as its intended to work. Your entire premise is based on uniquely rare characters even amongst superstars being available to draft at the very spot the Raptors would take. It's not that it's a crapshoot, it's that the odds are so low that it's really not worth willingly dismantling a working product in order to pursue. Not when teams tend to organically fail on their own, either through injury, old age or mismanagement. This is the other pathway, that you can just suck and end up with someone great, too.

I don't really have a problem with the team being bad for any number of reasons, but I don't obsess and wish them to be bad because of the low odds that them being bad will lead to a great player. If you have a mania about special players, then cheering for a single team isn't a good way to spend your time. What you are actually interested in is being servile to greatness in an individual, and because of that I think it'd be healthier to just roam around the league and bandwagon on the teams where those individuals currently play. They have more control over their fates then the individual teams do.

[Psubs]

Does the raptors need to fire nurse to start the tank?

Isn't he near the top in winning %

I'm fine with finishing around .500 and making the playoffs. Let's say 1 game over .500 so Nurse can have every season a winning one.

So they would be drafting around #15. Jalen Johnson, Greg Brown, James Bouknight, Jared Springer, JRE, Kai Jones?