sansterre wrote:But in 2019 things looked up for two reasons. First, LeBron left Cleveland and signed with the Lakers in the West. Second, Kawhi Leonard was on the block. Despite him having led the Spurs to some very strong seasons there were significant tensions there. In 2018 Leonard had injured his quadriceps and had been out much of the year. Eventually the Spurs doctors cleared him to play, but he got a second opinion from a doctor that encouraged him to sit out the year. This led to him feeling like the Spurs didn’t have his health or his interests at heart, so he demanded a trade. He was a risk. His health was in question, and he only had one more year on his contract, so there was a very good chance that acquiring him, however successful, would be a one-year rental. Ujiri, sensing opportunity, pulled the trigger, sending DeRozan and a protected 1st to the Spurs for Leonard. Despite having taken a 59-win team and added Leonard, the oddsmakers put Toronto below the Lakers, Rockets, Celtics and Warriors. The first three seem a bit nuts, but the last certainly makes sense. Golden State was the massive x-factor to the whole thing. Even if Toronto could now win the East, could they beat the Curry/Durant/Draymond Warriors that had just posted arguably the most dominant two-year stretch in history?
The regular season for Toronto went pretty well (if not as well as you might guess); they won 58 games and finished with a +5.49 RSRS. Kawhi proved healthy (with a healthy amount of load management) and would be most everything advertised. And midseason Ujiri pried veteran Marc Gasol away from the Grizzlies for Jonas Valanciunas and a 2nd. But the Raptors only won the two-seed; the immediate threat to their championship journey would not be from the Warriors, but instead the Milwaukee Bucks. Forecast 11th in the league at 48 wins, the Bucks would win 60 games and a +8.04 RSRS, the best in the league. Their young phenom, Giannis Antetokounmpo, took a leap, averaging 39 points and 20 rebounds per 100 on +8.4% efficiency and posting a BPM above +10. He won the MVP handily. He anchored the best defense in the league, and on offense he could not be kept from the rim. If Toronto was going to win a championship they’d likely have to get through the Bucks first.
In the first round they blew apart the +0.3 Orlando Magic to the tune of 14.4 points a game. The Magic were held to -6.4% shooting and the Raptors shot a strong +2.2%, led by Kawhi who averaged a 28/7/3 on +11.9% shooting. The Magic were only an average team, but it was a strong showing in any case.
They ran into a much tighter contest in the second round against the 76ers (+4.8). The Sixers lacked the Raptors’ firepower but boasted an intriguing defensive lineup (Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons), and a big man (Embiid) that nobody in the league had a really good answer for. It was a tight series, with the first six games splitting 3-3, with the Raptors averaging around a 3 point MoV for the six. Game 7 went down to the wire, in one of the most exctiing finishes of the season. With two minutes to play the score was tied.
1:41 - Kawhi Leonard gets a screen and drills a long two-pointer just over Joel Embiid to give the Raptors a two point lead.
1:18 - the Sixers possession stalls out, late in the clock they pass to Harris, who gets doubled, he unloads to Embiid, Lowry jumps the pass and sets Siakam up for a layup, four point Raptors lead. The crowd goes nuts. Pretty much the entire last two minutes.
0:59 - Jimmy Butler gets fouled and hits one of two free throws. Three point lead for Raptors
0:41 - Leonard drives into the paint but is completely shut down by Butler’s defense, Leonard takes an awkward two and misses, but Ibaka gets the rebound, Raptors’ ball
0:27 - Leonard takes a weird turnaround three-pointer and clanks it, Sixers’ ball, still three point lead for the Raptors.
0:12 - Embiid draws a foul and gets two free throws, hitting both, Raptors lead by one.
0:11 - Leonard is intentionally fouled, makes one and misses one, Raptors lead by two.
0:04 - Butler gets a head of steam in transition and barrels in for a layup, tie game.
0:00 - Leonard takes an insane running three with Embiid all over him, the ball bounces around the rim before falling through, Raptors win. Everyone loses their mind.
That the Raptors won the series on buzzer-beater like that gives an impression that they were lucky to win (sort of like the ‘13 Heat were to beat the Spurs on the Allen three). But there are several important differences:
-In 2013, the Heat had been outscored leading up to that moment (if not by a lot), the Heat would have lost without the shot going in, and they were down 3-2 at the time.
-In 2019, the Raptors had outscored the Sixers for the series to date, they would have gone to overtime if the shot had missed and the series was tied.
In other words, the '13 Heat needed the shot to land to even have a chance, while the '19 Raptors were already in the driver's seat, they just needed the shot to ice the game.
So, on the whole, beating the Sixers by 2.7 points a game was a narrow win, tighter than you’d want for a contending team over a quality (but not great) opponent. But it was a lot better than what may have been remembered as a coin-flip.
And in the Conference Finals were, of course, the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks had immolated the average Pistons by 23.8 points per game and, in case they needed to prove things further, they played a strong Celtics team (+5.5) and beat them in five by 8.6 points a game. The Bucks went into the game with an OSRS of +12.4, an intimidating challenge for the Raptors. The Bucks won Game 1 by eight, with Giannis posting a 24/14/6 on +0.4%, 2 steals and 3 blocks. In Game 2 the Bucks won by 22, with Giannis having a 30/17/5 on +3.3%. Two games in, it seemed over. So coach Nick Nurse made a change, matching Kawhi Leonard up on Giannis. Furthermore, the Raptors through the series would make cutting Giannis off on his route to the basket a priority, especially with the man defending light-shooting Eric Bledsoe. The resulting combination slowed Giannis, and the rest of the Bucks were unable to make up the difference. Giannis averaged a 23/14/6 on -4.2% for the series, while Kawhi averaged a 30/10/4 on +1.4%. The Raptors won it in six, but the margin of victory was tight, one point a game. Nevertheless, any victory over the Bucks was an impressive achievement. And the Raptors advanced to the Finals to face the Warriors.
But the ‘19 Warriors weren’t the same monster that they’d been in years past. Their playoff series to this point had been: +10.9 SRS eq, +9.7 SRS eq and +14.3 SRS eq. You may look at that and say “An 11.6 average PSRS? That sounds pretty good.” It was. But compared to the ‘17 and ‘18 Warriors, +11.6 PSRS was awkwardly mortal. Compounding matters, Kevin Durant was expected to be out for the series. This was bad for the Warriors . . . but not as bad as it sounded. Tensions between Durant and the rest of the Warriors had been high all year. And the Warriors had posted their best playoff series (the +14.3 SRS eq against the Blazers) with no Durant at all. Losing Durant would hurt, but not as much as one might guess. It would be a tight Finals, but the Raptors would prevail in six, by 5.7 points a game. The Raptors slightly controlled possession (3 shots a game) and slightly outshot the Warriors, +2.1% to +1.0%.
Did the fact that the Raptors won with Durant out (and Klay missing Game 6) diminish the victory? Yeah, some. But their 5.7 margin of victory is pretty solid against a clearly strong team; remember, this was basically the ‘15 and ‘16 Warriors, just older and with a thinner bench (and no Harrison Barnes). Personally, I’m more impressed by the victory over the Bucks, but still.
Either way, the Raptors had run the table and won the franchise’s first championship. Kawhi had played marvelously. He would leave in the offseason, and it would still be worth it.
11 | Bucks
10 | Raptors
9 |
8 | Warriors
7 | Rockets
6 |
5 |
4 | 76ers, Celtics, Nuggets
3 | Blazers
2 | Thunder, Spurs
1 | Pacers
0 |
-0 | Clippers, Heat, Kings, Mavs
-1 | Hornets, Lakers, TWolves, Pelicans
-2 | Nets, Magic, Grizzlies
-3 | Wizards
-4 | Pistons
-5 |
-6 | Hawks
-7 |
-8 | Bulls, Knicks, Suns
-9 | Cavs
-10|
2019 was a fairly non-competitve year. 12% of the league above +7 and 12% of the league below -8 is pretty lopsided. So that diminishes the Raptors season somewhat. Still. Their RSRS was nothing to brag about (77th on the list) but their playoff run was excellent, 30th on this list. Skeptics may seek to diminish their achievement by saying that the Bucks were overrated, but remember, the Bucks were trashing everyone. They faced a very solid, young, athletic, well-coached Celtics team and the Bucks mowed right through them. The Bucks were unstoppable . . . until the Raptors stopped them. And the Warriors without Durant may have been diminished, but even diminished they still stomped through the West pretty handily. I’m comfortable with this ranking for the Raptors. It was a hell of a run.[/spoiler]
Back to the Main Thread 
), but he lays out an interesting philosophical framework for evaluating the “goodness” of a team given his formula. In this case with Orlando, we ask “how much weight should be given to that utter annihilation of a healthy Hawks team that was a pretty good team?” He posted the rarity of such a blow out and in this case, a blowout without the aid of garbage time minutes piling on. On one hand, one series “shouldn’t” weigh so heavily, but on the other hand, there has to be something remarkable about a team that can do something that’s so rare. Then again, even though a team accomplishes something that’s rare, it’s a small sample p, so how much do you weight it, etc., and Sansterre’s working in refining the formula.
