Moderator: JaysRule25
Parataxis wrote:Have the rules for postings changed? I thought teams had to pay a posting fee first, and then negotiate to sign? Or am I misremembering how it worked when Darvish came over?
Here’s the actual situation, according to league sources. The Mets and Blue Jays remain seriously interested in Springer and engaged with his representatives. As you almost certainly know.
What you might not know yet is that the Mets and Springer are still a good distance apart on value. All parties involved with Springer are bracing for the possibility that his free agency could stretch well into next month.
The rumored deal between Springer and the Mets that popped up in several places over the holiday was five years, $125 million. In reality, Springer is expected to sign for much more than that. Two league sources said that he was still asking for well over $150 million. Springer’s representatives at Excel Sports Management did not respond to messages seeking comment.
The Mets might be willing to approach $150 million for Springer, but the sides haven’t found sufficient common ground to even get near a deal.
Ugh. You mentioned that the Blue Jays are lurking. Where do things stand for them with the Big Four?
As best as I’ve managed to glean, the Blue Jays remain in play for Springer, LeMahieu, Bauer and Realmuto. A report from Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News this week suggested the bidding for Springer was down to the Mets and Blue Jays, although my sense is it’s not clear that the end-game there is nigh.
Same with the Yankees and LeMahieu, and an interesting question is whether big moves by the Mets would spur a counter in the Bronx and waiting for that to play out could be keeping the infielder from signing. Bauer is a unicorn on the free-agent market as the only elite starter available, which should make landing him all the more complicated, although Realmuto’s market may have closed off once the Mets shifted to McCann, perhaps creating a better pathway to him for the Blue Jays.
Well then, why haven’t they done it yet? Why don’t they force the issue with one of those primary targets?
That’s an approach I’d advocate, but my guess is that the Blue Jays are reluctant to set the market and forcing the issue for them probably means going at least a year longer than other clubs, for more dollars per season. They were willing to pay a premium for Hyun-Jin Ryu last year when they gave him $80 million over four years, but the tariff on cutting Springer off from the Mets before he gets their best offer would be far more significant. And since no other team is jumping the market, the Blue Jays can afford to let things play out, allow someone else to establish the going rate and react accordingly.
All that being said, landing one of the Big Four is going to require a massive leap out of their comfort zone. A statement I’m often mindful is from 2016, when Andrew Friedman, the Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations, said, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” The Blue Jays will probably need to get super irrational. Will they to get a deal done with one of those four?
That’s what we’re talking about. They should go all A.J. Preller beefing up the Padres, right?
Don’t hold your breath for something that striking. Back at the trade deadline this summer, when Preller made six deals involving 26 players, I asked Atkins why not take a similar approach. This was his answer:
“Look at the Dodgers. It's never all-in at one time – it's a steady growth. They continue to build up their system. They've continued to make their 40-man roster more efficient and obviously very effective. It's important to be measured, and there isn't one juncture where, in our view, that you put all the cards on the table. For us it will be, hopefully, continuing to be able to build and have a system that continues to provide talent for us, and not just trade pieces. That's our goal.”
All of that applies to the winter, too. In an ideal world, my guess is the Blue Jays would want to gradually add pieces to their core in the hopes they develop a team rather than a bundle of talent. Even the Padres did things in stages, adding Eric Hosmer three years ago, Manny Machado two years ago, Drew Pomeranz, Tommy Pham, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham and Zach Davies last year, before topping up with Mike Clevinger, among others at the deadline, and now grabbing Snell, Yu Darvish and Kim. The Padres had a deeper farm system to work from than the Blue Jays, but I wouldn’t expect them to behave as aggressively as the Padres even if they did.
It's Christmas in San Diego! Trevor gets some quality time with his family but that doesn't mean he's taking days off. He takes us through a few of his different vacation workout circuits and FaceTimes with some fans on Christmas Eve to give them an opportunity to pitch their team. Then it's time for presents before heading back home just in time for a call with the Blue Jays.
TORONTO — What a time to make predictions.
As one of the most unpredictable years we’ve ever been through gives way to 2021, normalcy is what we crave.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, they hope their new normal is the postseason dance they returned to for the first time in four years this past October as a young, exciting roster now attempts to turn the corner from “nice surprise” to “legitimate contender.”
That’s not easy, but the Blue Jays are in a good spot if they can continue to augment that core in the coming weeks.
Which brings us back to that aforementioned unpredictability and an extremely slow start to the MLB off-season, a process that’s just getting started this new year, rather than starting to wrap up.
With uncertainty the way of the world, there’s really no better time to try to predict exactly how 2021 will go for the Jays.
What could possibly go wrong with 21 predictions in the dead of winter in the middle of a pandemic?
Some of these are bold, some are safe, but the important thing to remember is they’ll all be correct.
Welcome to 2021.
Now, let’s add to that some further context by taking a closer look at last year’s top free agent position player, another 2011 first-round pick in Anthony Rendon. Rendon hit free agency at age 29, compared to the 31-year-old Springer, and that's a potentially significant difference, especially when it comes to duration of contract. But as far as impact is concerned, the two aren't so far apart. Consider these numbers:
Rendon in Washington
Career numbers: 29.1 WAR, 127 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .960 OPS, 147 OPS+, 5.9 WAR per 650 PA
Springer in Houston
Career: 27.5 WAR, 131 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .953 OPS, 147 OPS+, 7.2 WAR per 650 PA
Big picture, we’re talking about two players who produce about as much as one another. There are significant differences, most notably the age gap, but if Rendon got $35 million for seven years, would it be crazy for Springer to want $35 million for five? To be clear, that’s totally speculative, but some industry observers do believe Rendon is a better comp for Springer’s AAV than Donaldson, who turned 34 last winter. A theoretical structure of $35 million times five years would get Springer to $175 million, which is certainly ‘well over’ $150 million.
Now, Rendon had the advantage of hitting free agency before the pandemic, and circumstances have definitely changed over the last 12 months. Springer’s path to an AAV that high will undoubtedly be tougher. But a closer examination of Rendon suggests an AAV around $30 million can’t be ruled for Springer.
Of course that’s all academic unless a team like the Mets or Blue Jays agrees. So, will they? That’s not a question club executives of any team would ever answer publicly, of course, but in recent months the Blue Jays have given some in the industry the impression they’re prepared to go to at least $125 million for Springer. A $125-million deal would be the largest free agent contract in franchise history by $42.5 million and there’s a good chance that’s not even a hard limit. Yet according to Martino, the Mets “might be willing to approach $150 million” for Springer.
If so, would the Blue Jays join the Mets in a bidding war? Or move on and resume their impact talent search elsewhere? Only the Blue Jays know that answer right now, though they’ve likely established an internal ‘walkaway’ threshold for their max bids on all top free agents, Springer included.
At this point, it’s easier to see the Mets going to $150 million, which is perhaps why they’re considered favourites to sign Springer. But regardless of who lands him, the last couple of months suggest he’s well-positioned to beat those early projections.
MLB on FOX reporter Ken Rosenthal talks about why he isn't surprised George Springer hasn't signed with a club yet, the Blue Jays' aggressiveness in free agency, Trevor Bauer publicly courting teams, the Francisco Lindor trade rumours quieting down, and the Dodgers' interest in DJ LeMahieu.
Schad wrote:(as does the fact that Bauer is just an exhausting human being, which is something that one can put up with if he's an ace, but good god would it get old fast if...).
The Dodgers are less than six weeks away from reporting to spring training — barring a pandemic-produced postponement — and Justin Turner is still a free agent. Where he will land remains a mystery.
Turner seeks a four-year contract, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The Dodgers don’t want to give him a deal longer than two years. Turner is beloved in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community after seven seasons in Los Angeles, but the Dodgers don’t want to commit more than two years to a 36-year-old third baseman whose mobility has appreciably diminished in recent seasons.
The Dodgers have internal options to fill the void but likely would seek to acquire a third baseman if Turner signed with another franchise, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. Free agent DJ LeMahieu sits atop the list of external options.
But signing LeMahieu would come at a steep price. He is expected to command a lucrative contract of at least four years. That would vault the Dodgers over the $210-million competitive balance tax line for 2021 unless they shed salary elsewhere. The Dodgers would pay a 20% tax on all overages after not surpassing the threshold the last three seasons.
The Toronto Blue Jays, one of the few franchises willing to spend significant money after a 60-game regular season without fans, are also in the mix for LeMahieu, but the Yankees are considered the favorites to re-sign him. If that happens, the Dodgers could turn to the trade market.
At least four veteran third basemen are available via trade, according to a person with knowledge: Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas and Kyle Seager. Moustakas and Seager don’t fit for the Dodgers because they’re left-handed hitters. That leaves Bryant and Suarez.
polo007 wrote:Dodgers could pivot to Bryant or Suárez if Justin Turner’s price is too high - Los Angeles TimesThe Dodgers are less than six weeks away from reporting to spring training — barring a pandemic-produced postponement — and Justin Turner is still a free agent. Where he will land remains a mystery.
Turner seeks a four-year contract, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The Dodgers don’t want to give him a deal longer than two years. Turner is beloved in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community after seven seasons in Los Angeles, but the Dodgers don’t want to commit more than two years to a 36-year-old third baseman whose mobility has appreciably diminished in recent seasons.
The Dodgers have internal options to fill the void but likely would seek to acquire a third baseman if Turner signed with another franchise, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. Free agent DJ LeMahieu sits atop the list of external options.But signing LeMahieu would come at a steep price. He is expected to command a lucrative contract of at least four years. That would vault the Dodgers over the $210-million competitive balance tax line for 2021 unless they shed salary elsewhere. The Dodgers would pay a 20% tax on all overages after not surpassing the threshold the last three seasons.
The Toronto Blue Jays, [b]one of the few franchises willing to spend significant money after a 60-game regular season without fans, are also in the mix for LeMahieu, but the Yankees are considered the favorites to re-sign him.[/b] If that happens, the Dodgers could turn to the trade market.
At least four veteran third basemen are available via trade, according to a person with knowledge: Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suárez, Mike Moustakas and Kyle Seager. Moustakas and Seager don’t fit for the Dodgers because they’re left-handed hitters. That leaves Bryant and Suarez.
raf1995 wrote:I just don’t think he has that kind of potential. I think we will regret not trading him for a haul in a few years when he’s a mid-tier starter with nice playmaking and defense and a shaky jumper.