Divisional Round Lead-Up - Rams - Saturday 3:35 - Fox

Post #1 » by **humanrefutation** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 7:38 pm

It looks like our possible opponents are:

Washington
Bucs
Rams
Bears

Most likely, it'll be the winner of the 4-5 matchup between Tampa and Washington, as I don't see the Rams beating the Seahawks or the Bears beating the Saints.

Allanon23 · Post #2 » by **Allanon23** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 9:05 pm

I honestly haven't been impressed with the Seahawks lately and I think Chicago matches up okay against the Saints. I would not be surprised if one or both of those games were upsets.

LUKE23 · Post #3 » by **LUKE23** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 9:54 pm

Saints and Bucs both have good QB and good defenses. I think Washington has a better shot at the upset just because their DL is insanely good and they are at home. I just don't see the Bears being able to score on the Saints at all.

skones · Post #4 » by **skones** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 10:13 pm

humanrefutation wrote:It looks like our possible opponents are:

Washington
Bucs
Rams
Bears

Most likely, it'll be the winner of the 4-5 matchup between Tampa and Washington, as I don't see the Rams beating the Seahawks or the Bears beating the Saints.

The Rams have long been a thorn in the side of Seattle, so I'm not willing to write that off. They've gone 10-8 against the Seahawks since Russell Wilson took the starting job in 2012. When you consider that the Rams were bad for 5 of those seasons it becomes all the more impressive. Just one of those rivalries that can go back and forth.

Kamara being out for New Orleans would be a boon for the Bears who managed to beat them earlier this season too.

Profound23 · Post #5 » by **Profound23** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 10:44 pm

It is what it is.

-Tampa has already proven they can beat us.
-Rams with Aaron Donald, Ramsey, and potentially a healthy Cam Akers.
-Washington is built like the Colts.....tough defense and good run game. Plus, I really don't want to lose a playoff game to a 6-10 team.
-And I don't trust our team to beat Chicago 3x in one year.

At this point, bring on Tampa and let's beat Brady in the playoffs.

jimmybones · Post #6 » by **jimmybones** » Mon Jan 4, 2021 11:29 pm

Here for my weekly "Davante Adams is damn good at his job" post.

Fun random fact - he's a 99 in madden now. I don't play video games anymore and this doesn't actually matter. But as someone who used to love Madden, it is a fun perspective of just how godly he's become.

Post #7 » by **humanrefutation** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 1:46 am

skones wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:It looks like our possible opponents are:

Washington
Bucs
Rams
Bears

Most likely, it'll be the winner of the 4-5 matchup between Tampa and Washington, as I don't see the Rams beating the Seahawks or the Bears beating the Saints.

The Rams have long been a thorn in the side of Seattle, so I'm not willing to write that off. They've gone 10-8 against the Seahawks since Russell Wilson took the starting job in 2012. When you consider that the Rams were bad for 5 of those seasons it becomes all the more impressive. Just one of those rivalries that can go back and forth.

Kamara being out for New Orleans would be a boon for the Bears who managed to beat them earlier this season too.

Kamara is eligible to be back on Sunday. Without him, it'll be an intriguing matchup.

Rams are either starting Goff - who has a broken thumb (and sucks otherwise) - or AAF star John Wolford.

I don't think we'll see upsets in those matchups. But we'll see - no real home field advantage could make a difference.

Post #8 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 4:18 am

Russillo on his pod today called the Packers the Notre Dame of the NFL. I'm offended, confused, and wondering if he's right?

raysbookclub · Post #9 » by **raysbookclub** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 4:48 am

Games will be interesting.

Is SEA defense good--turning it around like GB defense at the end, or is it that they've played the NFC East and the Jets, followed by hurt Goff and hurt 49ers the last two months?

Can the Rams offense turn it around? Will the Bears-Saints game be a shootout? How good is Tampa's defense and those speedy ILBs when they're not playing at home or in a dome (like they have been for the 6 games)?

LikeABosh · Post #10 » by **LikeABosh** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 12:39 pm

Dude...

sdn40 · Post #11 » by **sdn40** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 12:42 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Russillo on his pod today called the Packers the Notre Dame of the NFL. I'm offended, confused, and wondering if he's right?

Generally speaking. Pretty much.

sdn40 · Post #12 » by **sdn40** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 1:45 pm

I'm gonna be most interested in seeing that Washington defense against Brady. Sweat, Young, Payne, Kerrigan. I hope they come to play. I think they have a puncher's chance. Make Brady fall down in that fetal position that he does so well and game on

TrashCov · Post #13 » by **TrashCov** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 1:52 pm

Bucs cause unfair competition with this qb and the receivers, fournette and gronk.

I don't know the last situation of Mike Evans's knee injury but they will still play comfort game. Serious and tough team.

anyway

Packers in 6

sorry, wrong sport i guess

go get the lombardi trophy!

Outlander · Post #14 » by **Outlander** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 3:42 pm

sdn40 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:Russillo on his pod today called the Packers the Notre Dame of the NFL. I'm offended, confused, and wondering if he's right?

Generally speaking. Pretty much.

The Packers have lost the last three Conference Championships they have played in so I guess kind of. Rodgers has won a Super Bowl though so even having just one throws that comparison out the window.

Ron Swanson · Post #15 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 5:49 pm

Take it with a grain of salt, but pretty sure the defense has been borderline Top-5ish the last 2 months based on some metrics (#5 in EPA). Honestly, if you're not extremely confident heading into the postseason this year, then I don't know how you could ever be confident in any NFL team. You've got an elite offense humming on all cylinders with Rodgers at the absolute top of his game, and a defense that's peaking at the right time. They've demonstrated all year that they're in a tier of their own in the NFC.

Post #16 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 6:10 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Take it with a grain of salt, but pretty sure the defense has been borderline Top-5ish the last 2 months based on some metrics (#5 in EPA). Honestly, if you're not extremely confident heading into the postseason this year, then I don't know how you could ever be confident in any NFL team. You've got an elite offense humming on all cylinders with Rodgers at the absolute top of his game, and a defense that's peaking at the right time. They've demonstrated all year that they're in a tier of their own in the NFC.

Here's what ESPN said:

Through Week 16, their defensive QBR (66.1) and yards allowed per rush (4.64) each ranked No. 24 in the league, lower than all but one playoff team.

That seems more closely aligned with the eye test. They've been very bend but don't break-y. I think that could be a problem in the playoffs.

Ron Swanson · Post #17 » by **Ron Swanson** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 6:15 pm

Lol at ESPN still trying to peddle QBR, but yeah, looks like they're taking the aggregate of the whole season as opposed to recent trends. I get it, I certainly wouldn't say I feel great about the defense having to go up against the Bills or the Chiefs in a potential SB matchup, but I do feel better about them than I did 4-5 weeks ago. An elite pass-rush and play-makers in the secondary can wax over a lot of other warts, and this offense is so damn good that it might not even matter how the defense plays.

M-C-G · Post #18 » by **M-C-G** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 6:41 pm

Packers points vs points given up through 3 quarters;
*GB 29 Min 10, end score GB 43 Min 34
GB 34 Det 14, end score GB 42 Det 21
GB 27 No 27, end score GB 37 No 30
GB 27 Atl 9, end GB 30 Atl 16
GB 10 TB 38, end GB 10 TB 38 puke
*GB 28 Hou 7, end GB 35 Hou 20
GB 14 Min 28, end GB 22 Min 28 puke
*GB 31 SF 3, end GB 34 SF 17
GB 17 Jax 17, end GB 24 Jax 20
GB 28 Ind 25, end GB 31 Ind 34 OT
*GB 41 Chi 10, end GB 41 Chi 25
*GB 20 Phi 3, end GB 30 Phi 16
GB 21 Det 14, end GB 31 Det 24
GB 21 Car 10, end GB 24 Car 16
GB 33 Ten 14, end GB 40 Ten 14
GB 21 Chi 16, end GB 35 Chi 16

I go through that effort, that in 5 of those games, we essentially had the game locked up at the end of the 3rd quarter and gave up on average 14 garbage time points in those games. Now I get you can't just ignore a quarter of football, but this defense is better or has the potential to be better than our stats laid out.

The fact that we were able to adjust our plan enough to deal with Derrick Henry gives me a lot of hope. The embarrassment of SF last year gives me pause. Will Pettine stay with his gas on the pedal or clam up like SF last year?

crkone · Post #19 » by **crkone** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 7:13 pm

Packers have (by scoring) the 13th best 1st quarter defense, 3rd best 2nd quarter defense, and 18th best 3rd and 4th quarter defenses. That comes out to the 4th best 1st half defense, and 17th best 2nd half defense. If you go just by home games, their 2nd half defense moves up to 12th best compared to everyone else's home games.

EDIT: The time of possession share % for the offense also drops from top in the league in the 1st quarter to 7th best in the second quarter so it's not just the offense having the ball the whole time. Funny enough it drops to 17th in the 3rd quarter and recovers to 5th best in the 4th.

BUCKnation · Post #20 » by **BUCKnation** » Tue Jan 5, 2021 9:18 pm

This is definitely the best chance we've had since 14 going into the playoffs.