MGB8 wrote:Chicago-Bull-E wrote:DuckIII wrote:
That’s not a logical argument against tanking being a legitimate team building strategy based on real world circumstances. It’s simply an example of it not working. Everyone already agrees that it’s unlikely to work. Just like every other team building strategy intended to build a contender.
We can all make lists of hundreds of examples of types of strategies failing. Doesn’t mean the strategy itself should be universally discarded.
I wish I could give multiple And 1s. I mentioned this initially, that the data of other strategies failing spectacularly is much greater than a formal tank. But no one seems to care, no one shouts at the rooftops "Building a title contender through free agency doesn't work, here are 200+ examples over the last decade"
The majority of contenders this season were not built through tanking to get high picks. They were built through smart drafting - hitting gold in the mid-to-late draft, combined with smart FAs and/or trades. There is *one* tank team that is a contender this season - the Sixers. All the rest are not.
The Mavs are the next closest thing, but the team that ended up getting them in a position to trade up for Luka wasn't a tank team - Harrison Barnes, Wes Matthews, old man Dirk, old men Barea and Devin Harris, young (ultimately a bust) in Dennis Smith Jr., grimey-players Ferrell, Finney-Smith, and even Powell/Kleiber, and fliers on Nerlens Noel and Doug McDermott. That team was just hurt a lot and bad "by accident." (Similarly, the Blazers got Lillard on one bad year after 3 years in the playoffs, then only had one bad year with Dame before being back in the playoffs in the west).
If the Hawks become contenders - a pretty big if - then you'd have a 2nd "tank worked" team (where they dumped Millsap, Horford, Schroeder and sucked for a very long time).
Meanwhile, you still fail to factor in the reduced lotto odds - making being bad less attractive in terms of your chances of drafting high and getting a shot at a generational player.
While I agree with you, based on how you're defining "tanking", very few teams even implement this approach, so to say more teams at the top are built through free agency is disingenuous.
I'll do this as an extreme to make it clear, but let's say there are 6 teams that are contenders. One of them is a tank, and only 2 teams tanked in the league, the others did not. So the success rate of tanking is actually 50%, while other methods have an 18% success rate (5 contenders out of the remaining 28 teams).
Those numbers are arbitrary (so please don't respond with 'actually, 6 teams tanked'), but the point is the same, what percentage of each approach is working is a more telling study.
I agree, the tanking odds are hard. EVERY path to a championship is hard and a very low success rate.

















