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2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2)

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#201 » by fleet » Wed Jan 6, 2021 1:42 am

Clyde_Style wrote:Another favorable new data point:

Cobb County (Atlanta suburbs, including Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves) has reported 96,000 absentee votes; Ossoff won them by 33 points and Warnock won them by 35 points. In November, Biden won Cobb absentees by “just” 30 points. At this point, Democrats’ absentee hauls in metro Atlanta are what they need to win.

Ive not seen a county where Dems have not exceeded the number that Jon King says they needed to hit in terms of percentage of early vote. We have to see if the GOP turnout can overcome it . Most of that is still out.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#202 » by Oscirus » Wed Jan 6, 2021 1:46 am

knickabocker88 wrote:Did trump break the republican party or did Stacey Abrams really do this?

Anyway, Trump outlived his usefullness to Mitch.

Mitch is gonna go full Palpatine on the Trumps, like Darth Sidous did to the Junior siths.

Cant give trump all the credit if the dems win wed have to give some to mitch since his cheapness wouldve played a factor
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#203 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 1:48 am

fleet wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:Another favorable new data point:

Cobb County (Atlanta suburbs, including Truist Park, home of the Atlanta Braves) has reported 96,000 absentee votes; Ossoff won them by 33 points and Warnock won them by 35 points. In November, Biden won Cobb absentees by “just” 30 points. At this point, Democrats’ absentee hauls in metro Atlanta are what they need to win.

Ive not seen a county where Dems have not exceeded the number that Jon King says they needed to hit in terms of percentage of early vote. We have to see if the GOP turnout can overcome it . Most of that is still out.


so far, so good

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#204 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 1:51 am

Oscirus wrote:
knickabocker88 wrote:Did trump break the republican party or did Stacey Abrams really do this?

Anyway, Trump outlived his usefullness to Mitch.

Mitch is gonna go full Palpatine on the Trumps, like Darth Sidous did to the Junior siths.

Cant give trump all the credit if the dems win wed have to give some to mitch since his cheapness wouldve played a factor


Mitch rolled the dice on winning the runoffs

He figured: WTF, if we lose they're going to cut those $2,000 checks anyway

They might have picked up percentage points if they had backed those relief checks so I don't particularly understand the logic of that gamble, but after so long seeing this guy play the villain I just have to believe he is simply too much of a kwnt to ever do the right thing. It might be that simple
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#205 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 1:53 am

We’re getting results noticeably faster than General or Primary. @GaSecofState tells me it’s because of recent election board rule change REQUIRING counties start scanning absentee ballots 2 weeks before election. They’d previously changed rule over summer to ALLOW early scanning
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#206 » by knickabocker88 » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:02 am

Its pretty much gonna come down to turnout in Atlanta, The trends from the rest of the state is that D's overperformed and R's underperformed but its still tight narrow margins.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#207 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:04 am

Nate Silver
Jan. 5, 8:56 pm

This is A) not good, B) not surprising, C) not an indication of GOP confidence.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#208 » by thebuzzardman » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:04 am

fleet wrote:Depression 1920s style, only everyone has a smartphone. Might happen no matter what happens.


At least there will be a lot of artfully posed hobo photos on Instagram
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#209 » by HarthorneWingo » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:05 am

Clyde_Style wrote:Exit Polls will not give you a read on the outcome. They're going to overly skew Republican anyway without telling you anything about early ballots


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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#210 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:06 am

Numbers are tightening.

Ossof's percentage lead is gone at 50/50% though he is actually still up by 11,000 votes

Warnock holds 2% edge still
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#211 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:07 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Clyde_Style wrote:Exit Polls will not give you a read on the outcome. They're going to overly skew Republican anyway without telling you anything about early ballots


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The results are coming in very fast so exit polls are a non-factor. We'll know tonight probably
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#212 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:08 am

thebuzzardman wrote:
fleet wrote:Depression 1920s style, only everyone has a smartphone. Might happen no matter what happens.


At least there will be a lot of artfully posed hobo photos on Instagram


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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#213 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:27 am

Nate Cohn of The New York Times/The Upshot estimates that total turnout will eventually hit 4.415 million — at least. It’s hard to overstate what a huge number that is for a runoff election. It would be more than double the previous record for highest turnout in a runoff, 2.1 million in 2008. Heck, it would be more than the 4.1 million people who voted in Georgia in the 2016 general election.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#214 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:28 am

Rockdale County, a Democratic stronghold southeast of Atlanta, has now counted 98 percent of its expected vote. Warnock and Ossoff both lead there by 45 points after Biden won it by 41 points in November. If that pattern holds in other metro Atlanta counties, that would be very good for Democrats.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#215 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:30 am

Reps now with the edge at the moment

Outcome still favorable to Dems

Warnock showing extra strength
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#216 » by knickabocker88 » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:33 am

CNN being dishonest for ratings. I hope Fox calls it first once the ATL vote comes in.
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#217 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:34 am

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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#218 » by Clyde_Style » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:35 am

knickabocker88 wrote:CNN being dishonest for ratings. I hope Fox calls it first once the ATL vote comes in.


I'm watching WaPo stream on YouTube

What is CNN saying?
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#219 » by knickabocker88 » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:38 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
knickabocker88 wrote:CNN being dishonest for ratings. I hope Fox calls it first once the ATL vote comes in.


I'm watching WaPo stream on YouTube

What is CNN saying?


Just building up the suspense, everytime the R's take the lead Wolf Blitzer talking like the sky is falling.

The R's don't have the remaining vote
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Re: 2020 Presidential Election Thread presents: The Aftermath (Part 2) 

Post#220 » by Oscirus » Wed Jan 6, 2021 2:39 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
Oscirus wrote:
knickabocker88 wrote:Did trump break the republican party or did Stacey Abrams really do this?

Anyway, Trump outlived his usefullness to Mitch.

Mitch is gonna go full Palpatine on the Trumps, like Darth Sidous did to the Junior siths.

Cant give trump all the credit if the dems win wed have to give some to mitch since his cheapness wouldve played a factor


Mitch rolled the dice on winning the runoffs

He figured: WTF, if we lose they're going to cut those $2,000 checks anyway

They might have picked up percentage points if they had backed those relief checks so I don't particularly understand the logic of that gamble, but after so long seeing this guy play the villain I just have to believe he is simply too much of a kwnt to ever do the right thing. It might be that simple

Dudes spent the last 8 years consistently winning without suffering the consequences, I can see why hed be so arrogant at this juncture. Hell even in this the votes gonna be close when people know that hes **** them.
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