NEXT! Caleb Houstan and the class of 2021: top-25

[Hair Canada]

It’s been just over three years since I put up a similar project, reviewing the young Canadians in high school. At the time I made what called a “bold” prediction that within 5 years we’ll have at least 20 Canadian NBA players. Well, that has happened even quicker than I projected.

Below you can see where I got things right or wrong in my previous write up, starting with players like SGA, NAW, Barrett, Nembhard, Shittu, Dort, Brissett, and Iggy, and going all the way to Caleb Houstan and Elijah Fisher. In hindsight, I think I did okay. But I did let some recency bias cloud my judgement here and there (Abu Kigab; Lual Akot) and was too high on some prospects (Emmanuel Akot; Cashius McNeilly). And while I was quite enthusiastic with SGA and Dort, I didn’t think they would be THIS good (mainly SGA).

2017-18:
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2019:
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2020:
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2021:
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2022:
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2023 + :
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Three years ago I already tried to be careful with long-term predictions, recognizing that this is an extremely difficult business. I mean, scouts who are paid to do this professionally oftentimes miss completely on great prospects. And for every hyped player that reaches NBA success five others vanish from sight within a few years.

So my approach is that all we can do at these ages (14-18) is highlight potential and hope for strength in numbers. That is, if there are enough kids with high potential, statistically we can predict that some of them will materialize (while others will surely not), alongside others who will emerge as late bloomers.

Now, to be sure, this is not the best time for such a writeup. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected Canadian youth leagues even more than it has their American counterparts and it seems quite likely that we will not see any youth basketball in Canada this year. Consequently, I haven’t watched many of the prospects that I’m going to mention below for more than a year now. Youth leagues were cut short last season, there were no summer AAU showings, and also no FIBA events and no national inter-provincial competitions. And at these ages, a whole year could make a world of difference. Kids shoot up in height or suddenly stop growing. Promising prospects hit a wall and quickly seem pedestrian. Others suddenly come out of “nowhere,” unexpectedly looking like that next big thing.

Despite all this, considering that we might not see most young Canadians play again before the summer (at best), I’ll take my chances and mention a few of the prospects that caught my eye since the last times I’ve done this, starting with those who are bound to join the college ranks next year. Because of the high level of uncertainty, I’ll be highlighting around 10 players from each class who I think might have potential for a long-term impact in college and beyond.

For those interested in the Canadians who are already in college, you might want to check here:

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CLASS OF 2021:

I’ll start today with the class that is about to graduate from high school and get into the college ranks. My sense is that this class has gone a bit under the radar for a number of reasons.

First, most players from this class never played FIBA basketball with a Canadian national team. The only exceptions are Charles Bediako, who actually already played for 3 national youth teams, and the two guys who reclassified from 2022 – Ryan Nembhard and Caleb Houstan. Some others were supposed to play this summer at the U18 FIBA Americas, but of course that competition was annulled, as were the AAU competitions which could have helped them to get some exposure.

In addition, many of the best prospects in this class decided to reclassify and go to college early. This includes guys like Ben Mathurin (Arizona), Josh Primo (Alabama), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Clemson), Zach Edey (Purdue), Javonte Brown (Uconn), and Jefferson Koulibaly (Washington State).

We are left then with one excellent talent, another borderline 5-star player, and a few prospects with an intriguing physical profile but limited production in high school, who might (or more likely might not) break out in college in a few years. Not the most exciting field. But I have a feeling that before it’s all said and done for this class (that is, by the start of the next college year), they might be joined by 2 or 3 of the best prospects from 2022 to create solid class.


So who do we have here?

I’ll start with a (very) tentative top-25 ranking. But before I do that, a few caveats:

First, I’m only a basketball fan, and I don’t have access to inside information beyond what I watch or read. Accordingly, this ranking should be taken with a BIG grain of salt. This is true for any ranking lists at these ages, as players’ physical profiles and skills are still so fluid. But it’s especially true for this one, given that at least for some players my information is outdated by at least a year due to COVID-19. In addition, this is mostly a forward-looking projection of visible ceilings and at least some of these players will likely never actually materialize at a higher level. So if you are averse to such rankings at this age, you can save your breath and feel free to just skip the list (or rather this entire thread).

The heights and weights should also be looked at cautiously. I still mention an estimation of these because I think they are important in giving context to future projections. But while I generally try to keep on top of these numbers, there is no one reliable and updated source where these are listed. So in some cases these are just my best estimates, based on how these players look like to the naked eye. Or in some cases, even worse, how they looked like a year ago… Which means that it’s not entirely impossible that someone who is listed here as a 6’3 has recently shot up in height and is now 6’6, which might of course entirely change his prospects. Still, these are my current best estimates so if anyone knows better, I’ll be glad to hear about it.


Okay, enough apologies; here we go:

Class of 2021 top-25 ranking:

1. Caleb Houstan (6’8 SF; 205lbs; from Mississauga, ON)
2. Charles Bediako (6’11 C; 215lbs; St. Catherines, ON)
3. Ryan Nembhard (6’1 PG; 175lbs; Aurora, ON)
4. Marlon Lestin (6’9 PF; 205lbs; Montreal, QC)
5. Kordell Charles (6’8 SF; 205lbs; Caledon, ON)
6. Justin Ndjock-Tadjore (6’8 SF; 190lbs; Aylmer QC)
7. Thow Biel (6’8 SF; 195lbs; Calgary, AB)
8. Mayen Maen (6’9 PF; Calgary, AB)
9. Sam Alamutu (6’4 SG; 190lbs; Ajax, ON)
10. Muon Reath (6’8 SF; 185lbs; Ottawa, ON)
11. Enoch Kalambay (6’6 SF; Gatineau, QC)
12. Kyle Duke (6’4 PG; 180lbs; Toronto, ON)
13. Keon Baker (6’5 SG; 190lbs; Ajax, ON)
14. Tre-Vaughn Minott (6’10 C; 240lbs; Montreal, QC)
15. To Randriasalama (6’3 PG; 170lbs; Montreal, QC)
16. Jacob Holt (6’9 PF; 200lbs; Delta, BC)
17. Kyree Thompson (5’11 PG; Halifax, NS)
18. Darius DeAveiro (6’0 PG; Ottawa, ON)
19. Johnny Avgousti (6’6 SG; 190lbs; Aurora, ON)
20. Josh Bascoe (5’10 PG; 165lbs; Milton, ON)
21. Mason Kraus (6’3 SG; 180lbs; Winnipeg, MB)
22. Tyler Delevante (6’4 SG; 180lbs; Mississauga, ON)
23. Arnaud Konan (6’1 PG; Brossard, QC)
24. Junior Merci (6’0 PG; Roxboro, QC)
25. Jahlil Scott (6’1 PG; Whitby, ON)


I’ll try to write some about the first 10 on this list tomorrow.

[Reeko]

Is Ryan Nembhard considered a better prospect than his brother at the same stage?

[Hair Canada]

Is Ryan Nembhard considered a better prospect than his brother at the same stage?

I'll write about this later today.

[SharoneWright]

St. Catharines. It'll getcha every time...

[Hair Canada]

Okay, let's take a deeper look at the top-10 here.

I'll start with the 3 more familiar talents on this list.

The future leaguer:

1. Caleb Houstan (18yo 6’8 SF; Montverde Academy; Michigan commit). Houstan is the clear frontrunner in this Canadian class and one of the top-10 talents in this class regardless of nationality. I’ve written quite a bit about him over the last 3 years. Always liked his mentality and basketball IQ. And he’s continued developing nicely throughout the years, to the point where he is arguably the best player in the best team in US high school today – Montverde Academy (which has become sort of a Canadian powerhouse in recent years, with players like Barrett, the Nembhard brothers, Shittu, and Marcus Carr).

From a physical profile standpoint, Houstan is actually not the most impressive prospect. He has good height for a wing prospect at 6’8, but with a long neck, a rather narrow frame, and what looks like an average wingspan. He is also not the most explosive athlete (more smooth) and doesn’t overwhelm opponents with his athleticism or strength, though I think he’s stronger and especially tougher than he appears.

This physical profile means that Caleb has to be elite in other aspects of the game, particularly shooting. And luckily, last year at Montverde he’s shown signs that he is indeed already an elite shooter (over 50% from 3). He has developed a beautiful and elegant stroke with considerable versatility (catch-and-shoot; off screens in movement; pull-ups). If he can maintain this at higher levels, he has a lot to build on. But he also needs to continue to make progress with his handle (already pretty good but a bit right-hand dominant), passing, and defensive IQ (also has a good base) to compensate for the average physical profile. When trying to imagine him as an NBA player, he reminds me quite a bit of Phoenix’s Cam Johnson from both a physical standpoint and his ability to shoot and make smart plays. Houstan might be a bit more talented overall, but I still think that’s a pretty good NBA comparison when thinking about his possible role – a 3-and-D with a good nose for opportunistic scoring, a good feel for the game, and an all-around solid game.


The big man:

2. Charles Bediako (18.8yo 6’11; 7’4 wingspan; 215lbs; IMG Academy; still no college commitment but seems like he’s leaning toward Alabama). The younger and more promising Bediako brother took some time to come into his own. As a youngster, he flashed some potential but lacked strength and looked very clumsy. He lacked coordination on the court, though he was always lighter on his feet than his older brother. But starting with his breakout U19 world championships with the Canadian national team (as a 17yo), he began to look like a more promising potential, with an excellent level of activity and even initial signs of outside shooting (was a complete non-shooter at younger ages).

Now, to be honest, I haven’t watched much of Charles over the last two years, in which he was playing in the States and almost not at all during 2020. So it’s hard for me to say with any certainty how much further progress he’s made. I think it was a good move to stay in high school for another year rather than reclassify last year, even if he’ll start college at close to 20. He really needed the time to work on his body and skills, as lack of sufficient strength was one of his main weaknesses. He’s now considered a top-30 prospect in North America by quite a few scouts. I sure hope that’s the case but I’ll need to see more to really get on board. My impression from watching the film is that he remains a bit raw and unpolished and would need a few years in college to continue developing his confidence and comfort level. The shot still looks somewhat odd and his coordination, while much improved, still looks a bit awkward. Can he keep up defensively with switches? Can he actually shoot now? Did he improve his coordination and body enough? These days, centers are just asked to do so much to stay on the court.


The point guard

3. Ryan Nembhard (17.8yo 6’1 PG; Montverde Academy; Creighton commit). I love the younger Nembhard’s skills and in some ways, I think he’s more talented than his brother. His passing, game IQ, feel for the game, and floor general skills are on par with those of his big brother. but he’s a more aggressive player than Andrew was at this age, and a better and faster athlete, who attacks the basket more consistently, looking for his own shot when open but also making the right read when it’s there. Can score from all three levels, though his range and consistency from behind the arc still need some work.

And here comes the “but”. If he had Andrew’s size, he would be the better prospect of the two I think. But as a 6’1 (at best) PG, who lacks length and strength and is a good but not an explosive athlete, it’s really hard to imagine a future for him in the NBA. For this, the shot will need to be elite and he’s not there right now and probably will never get there. Or maybe if he had a phenomenal handle, which I also think is not the case. He’s very good with the ball, but not spectacular. Like his brother, he’s very good and fundamentally sound at just about any area of the game, but not a savant in any of them. Perhaps he’s not yet done growing, but at almost 18 the chances for a significant growth seem to be really narrowing.

[Hair Canada]

St. Catharines. It'll getcha every time...

Yes, thanks. It does get me every time. Not just he "a". also the "s" at the end.

[Hair Canada]

Let's look now into some less familiar names:

The lengthy combo-forwards ensemble:

Even beyond Houstan, this class has an unusually large number (at least 6 others by my count) of combo-forward prospects with intriguing tools. All of them share a similar size and physical profile with Houstan (long, fluid, and good athletes, but not powerful), as well as some promising perimeter skills, though none has his level of talent or shooting prowess. Still, I think they will all end up playing for high-major division-1 teams next year.

At this point, It’s really hard for me to assess which of them is the best/most promising given how little they have played competitive basketball over the past year (or at least how little I could watch them). But I’ll still try to rank them, and the sheer volume gives some hope that at least one or two from this group will break out in the coming years. Also, although Nembhard is currently a better player than any of them (and quite likely will also be a better college player), I think they probably have higher ceilings as NBA players if they can make a jump in terms of skill and mentality.

Of note, all but one come from out of the GTA, showing the development of basketball across Canada. And all are still uncommitted to any college as far as I know.

4. Marlon Lestin (6’9 PF; about 200lbs; Redemption Christian Academy; from Montreal, QC). I haven’t had too many chances to watch him, but from the little I’ve seen, my sense right now is that at this point Lestin is the best of the six and has the highest ceiling. He's another one who joined the game late, starting to play basketball at age 15. He also seems to be a late bloomer physically. A very good athlete who can shoot the 3, defend on the perimeter, and pass. Reminds me a bit of another Montrealer, Tyrese Samuel from a physical and athletic standpoint, with a good frame that should fill out with time. But unlike Samuel, Lestin seems to have a very good and consistent motor. He’s also a good instinctive shot blocker. I think he’s more of a 4 than a 3. His perimeter skills are still a work in progress and while he can certainly put the ball on the floor, he seems relatively limited to straight-line drives. The shooting stroke looks okay (high release), though not very fluid. But the overall talent level is very good. Let's see if he can put it together at a higher level.

5. Kordell Charles (18yo; 6’8 SF; 205lbs IMG Academy). In terms of raw talent and basketball skills, Charles might be the most talented of this bunch. His game looks smooth, he has a clean good-looking shot, his handle is respectable, and he’s also a good athlete, playing above the rim with ease. But I do have some doubts regarding his mentality and motor. Somehow, all this bounty often didn’t translate into production and he often looked quite complacent or even lost on the court at younger ages, lacking a degree of toughness and competitiveness. That said, I didn’t watch him play competitive basketball in nearly two years. Last year he was sidelined with an injury (broke his leg) and one can hope that he used this time to mature not only physically but also mentally. The talent, as I said, is undeniable.

6. Justin Ndjock-Tadjore (19yo; 6’8 SF; 190lbs from Aylmer, QC). Like other QC players (Boucher; Dort; Mathurin), he’s a newcomer to the game. Didn’t play basketball till he was 15 and preferred to play soccer. And again, another late-bloomer physically, who might still be growing. So he’s lacking somewhat on the fundamentals and game experience still adjusting to his body and getting stronger, but he’s an intriguing talent. A very good athlete with nice penetration, who can either finish well above the rim or recognize the open man (a very willing passer). Also has a nice Euro-step and some deception on his finishes. But he still lacks a degree of wiggle in tight spaces. His 3-point shooting form looks fine when he’s open, but he doesn’t look like a very natural or comfortable shooter at this point. Much more of a slasher. Also quite right-hand dominant. Rarely goes to his left and very rarely finishes with it. So he’s mostly limited to straight-line drives.

7. Thow Biel (18.5yo; 6’8 SF; 195lbs; From Calgary, AB). Another guy with a lot of talent. Biel is a bit on the skinny side, but he’s long, fluid, and another very good athlete. I also like his shooting stroke, which looks clean, with a high release, though it still doesn’t fall very consistently. He showed really nice flashes last year playing at the NPA, but had a bit of a hard time finishing with contact, due to his lack of strength. Also didn’t always make good reads. Looks like he’s another late-comer to the game and his feel and game IQ are still developing. Takes too many tough, unbalanced shots during games and not yet sure when to attack and when to pass. The defense also comes and goes. Show some exiting flashed on that side of the floor, but also falls asleep or looks disinterested at times. Overall, he has an intriguing scoring arsenal but has a long way to go to be a strong contributor on a high-major D1 team.

8. Mayen Maen (6’9 3-and-D stretch-4; also from Calgary, AB). Probably the guy I’ve seen play the least over the years, as he played in Alberta and then moved to the Staes. But from what I did see, he has very good size and fantastic length (reported 7’4). He’s also a fluid athlete who moves well and is quite coordinated, though he’s not very explosive. His main selling point right now might be his three-point shooting. Shoots it flat-footed with a bit of an awkward release, but with good precision. Also a pretty good defender with lots of potential on that end of the floor. His handle looks shaky and he’s not much of a slasher. Mostly limited to rim-running and outside shooting for now. But if he can be a defensive force, that might prove to be enough for a high-major D1 team, and then who knows what else.

9. Muon Reath (18yo; 6’8 SF from Ottawa, ON). While the NPH guys have long considered Reath to be one of the most promising prospects in this class (perhaps not surprising given that he’s been playing in their NPA league all these years), for me he might actually be the least promising out of this group. In theory, he has it all – size, length, ball skills, a nice shooting stroke, and lock-down defensive abilities. But in practice, I’ve never seen most of this actually materialize. He does show nice defensive potential, but offensively he’s been very far. His handle is shaky, the shooting very erratic and inconsistent, finishing around the basket is not good (probably at least partly due to strength issues), the decision-making questionable, and maybe most worrisome, he has a tendency to blend in and disappear during games even against inferior competition. Perhaps all of this has really improved significantly during the last year and he has turned a page. It's certainly possible. But I kind of doubt it, given the slow pace of improvement over the last four years that I've been following him.

10. Sam Alamutu (18.5yo; 6’4 SG with a long wingspan; from Ajax, ON; Vermont Commit). Finally, a different kind of player. Alamutu plays at Rothesay Netherwood high school in New Brunswick. Last year he played alongside Kellen Tynes, but this year he's the best player on the team. He’s a player I learned to like quite a bit with multiple viewings. At first, I didn’t know what to make of him, as he plays a bit like a combo-forward at 6’4. But I think he has shades of Lu Dort in his game. Very athletic and strong, with great passion for the game and defensive instincts and motor. Like Dort (though not to the same degree), he’s a really good defender, both on the ball and as a help defender. On the offensive end, he’s not very polished, but has very good vision and is very unselfish. Still, I think his potential is somewhat limited because his shooting and handle are not good enough for a guard. But he might be able to play the wing in today’s small-ball game, because of his strength and athleticism, especially if he can improve his shooting touch.


I guess that's all I'm going to say about this class. If anyone wonders about any of the other players on my list of 25 (or someone else from this class that I haven't mentioned), I can try to give a bit of info if I know them well enough.

Otherwise, I'll move on to the class of 2022 next week.

[Hair Canada]

Maybe just one more player that I quite like from this class:

11. Enoch Kalambay (18.5yo; 6’6 SF from Gatineau, QC; plays for Orangeville Prep; uncommitted). Kalambay, another QC product, is a good and powerful athlete. He's a good slasher who can finish above the rim with ease. His shooting can be streaky, but he definitely has range and decent touch. Enoch is Left-handed and has a good attack mentality, which works quite nicely against high school opponents. From what I've seen, he's probably not quite talented enough to be considered an NBA prospect (doesn’t have the size, consistent shooting, or skill that would get him to this level). But still, a very nice player who should eventually have a good college career, probably better than at least some of the names who are higher up on this list, as his floor seems higher even if the ceiling is probably not as high. A possible comparison in terms of body type and skill is another Quebecois, Jahmyl Telfort, who is quietly having himself a really nice rooky season with Northeastern (12.6 points a game, shooting 46% from 3).

[BigDocta898]

From what I seen with Houston on the canada team he plays alot like Kyle Kuzma, pretty much just shot it every time I never saw him make a play for a teammate let alone just make a simple pass

[Hair Canada]

It's true that Houstan (with an "a") did not create much for others in that U16 FIBA Americas. But he was the go-to guy on that team. I've watched him play in other settings alongside other big talents and my impression is that he is not a selfish player. He actually has a good feel and usually takes good decisions. I guess we shall see.

[Hair Canada]

One less guy for this class. Tre-Vaughn Minott (#14 on my list) just signed a financial aid agreement with the Gamecocks and will be joining AJ Lawson in South Carolina. He'll be eligible to play immediately.

Read on Twitter

[aminiaturebuddha]

There was a write-up by Jonathan Givony in ESPN on standouts from the recent St. James NIBC Invitational that brought together top high school teams. Two of the two guys that Hair highlighted got a mention:

Caleb Houstan | Sr. | SF Montverde Academy
No. 8 in ESPN class of 2021

On a strong Montverde team, Houstan was a star in his own role -- spacing the floor from the perimeter, being a key playmaking cog, coming off screens on occasion and playing excellent defense.

Despite standing 6-8, Houstan was one of the best shooters at the NIBC (42% on 3s), consistently on point if able to step into 3-pointers with his feet set. He does an excellent job of moving off the ball and finding opportunities to get his shot off in the open floor, and shows some flashes of being able to get his jumper off the bounce or coming off curls. More fluid than he is explosive, Houstan's ball-handling and overall shot-creation ability remain works in progress, though he's savvy with the way he moves the ball and generates easy shots for teammates within the flow of the offense. Houstan's feel for the game shows up especially with the way he defends off the ball, and he's almost always in the right spots positionally.

Houstan will be an easy player for Juwan Howard to integrate into Michigan's roster next year thanks to his positional size, skill, feel and willingness to do the little thing. He's attractive for a lot of the same reasons from an NBA perspective, but finding a way to ramp up his aggressiveness and finding a little more volume without sacrificing efficiency will make him an even more coveted prospect.


Ryan Nembhard | Sr. | PG | Montverde Academy

Unranked in class of 2021

Lost in the shuffle behind a sea of McDonald's All-Americans in his first two years at Montverde, Nembhard patiently waited his turn and had a breakout tournament as the engine behind his team's 7-0 outing. He was especially impressive in a win over IMG, getting anywhere he wanted on the floor, hounding opposing guards the length of the floor and making the right decisions out of pick-and-roll. Nembhard showed quickness attacking the paint at this event, rarely needing a ball-screen to get to the front of the rim. He uses soft touch to get his layups off in traffic and showed real toughness drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line thanks to his strong frame. Sure-handed with the ball and more than happy to execute the offense, Nembhard does a great job of keeping his star teammates happy with well-timed passes.

Nembhard's jump-shot has long been a question mark, and he's begun to show some progress in that area, making five of his 15 attempts at this event. Continuing to speed up his release and finding consistency shooting off the dribble will be major points of emphasis as he gets to the college ranks, where defenses are sure to go under ball screens if he's unable to punish them. Defensively, Nembhard can really move his feet and has made a living getting in passing lanes his entire career.

[Hair Canada]

Yes, they had a pretty encouraging tournament.

[Hair Canada]

Excellent game for both Houstan and Nembhard today in a tight Montverde win over an unbeaten Compass Prep. Houstan finished with 21. Nembhard with 19 (8 of 10 from the field), 7 assists, and 3 steals, including 10 points in overtime and a buzzer-beater that didn't count at the end of regulation. He's been great this year.