Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[pcbothwel]

My thoughts regarding a potential Beal trade:

I think the Warriors make the most sense for both parties of any of the teams listed honestly. Beal for Wiseman/Minnesota's first rounder in this draft, a pick swap or two, maybe one other first in the future to offset the chance that they miss out on the Minny first in this strong draft and whatever salary filler required would get it done for me. The Warriors (potentially) extend their window, get Steph Curry some scoring assistance as he continues to age, they get some Klay insurance and Beal gets to go to a team with a reasonable chance to compete for something meaningful, and on the other side the Wizards get (essentially) two high firsts (Wiseman being one of them) including the type of talented frountcourt player they've lack since Chris Webber. That Minny first (assuming it conveys this season) could turn into Green or Kuminga, which could mean that as soon as next season the Wizards could potentially trot out a young core featuring something like Suggs (their pick)-Green-Avdija-Hachimura-Wiseman/Bryant. That's a grouping with some promise, even though it'll struggle again next year. I like that much more for DC than anything else I've seen tbh.

This board is collectively lower on Wiseman than most anywhere else I've seen iirc, but what say you with regard to this package?

Im low on Wiseman, but still believe he'll play a decade in the league. I just dont see him as generational. But would gladly take him as part of a larger package and see what we got.

They will need a stretch/savvy big and backup PG. They also need to remove the top 4 protection on their 2024 1st to Memphis.

Beal, Neto, Wagner for Oubre, Wiseman, Smailagic, Chriss (Waived) + 2021 1st (protected 21-30, becomes TWolves 2nd), TWolves 2021 1st, and 2026 unprotected... Swaps of 25 & 27 are optional, but I wouldnt require it.

Actually, If they value Bonga then I would include him in if we could get the swaps. They need a smart, low usage wing defender and spot up shooter.

We probably end up with two picks in the 4-8 range (Ours and Twolves) and GSW in the 12-16 range. I would look to trade the two top picks for #1 and take Suggs, but whatever.

Westbrook / Brown
Mathews / Brown
Deni / Bonga
Rui / Bertans
Wiseman / Lopez (Bryant next year)

Thats a fun group and I would see how Bryant bounces back next year and look to move him for a 1st in 2022.

[DCZards]

My thoughts regarding a potential Beal trade:

I think the Warriors make the most sense for both parties of any of the teams listed honestly. Beal for Wiseman/Minnesota's first rounder in this draft, a pick swap or two, maybe one other first in the future to offset the chance that they miss out on the Minny first in this strong draft and whatever salary filler required would get it done for me. The Warriors (potentially) extend their window, get Steph Curry some scoring assistance as he continues to age, they get some Klay insurance and Beal gets to go to a team with a reasonable chance to compete for something meaningful, and on the other side the Wizards get (essentially) two high firsts (Wiseman being one of them) including the type of talented frountcourt player they've lack since Chris Webber. That Minny first (assuming it conveys this season) could turn into Green or Kuminga, which could mean that as soon as next season the Wizards could potentially trot out a young core featuring something like Suggs (their pick)-Green-Avdija-Hachimura-Wiseman/Bryant. That's a grouping with some promise, even though it'll struggle again next year. I like that much more for DC than anything else I've seen tbh.

This board is collectively lower on Wiseman than most anywhere else I've seen iirc, but what say you with regard to this package?

Wiseman is going to be a STAR. He looks like he has the physical and mental tools, as well as the bball skills, to excel in the NBA for many years. If the Zards and GS can put together a package for lands Wiseman and a high draft pick or two for Beal, I'm all for it.

But only if there's no way the Zards are going to be able to keep Beal happy and under contract.

[NatP4]

Wiseman has already played over 250 minutes and looks like a bust to me. He’s easily been the worst player on the warriors this season. He’s shooting less than 50% on 2s, 58% on free throws, averaging 2 more turnovers than assists per36, and really struggling defensively.

Looks like the next Bagley to me. Puts up a bunch of empty stats, doesn’t help you win, has very poor feel for the game.

Here are the on/off numbers for GS, of players that have played atleast 200 minutes, only Wiggins is worse: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

[Frichuela]

Wiseman has already played over 250 minutes and looks like a bust to me. He’s easily been the worst player on the warriors this season. He’s shooting less than 50% on 2s, 58% on free throws, averaging 2 more turnovers than assists per36, and really struggling defensively.

Looks like the next Bagley to me. Puts up a bunch of empty stats, doesn’t help you win, has very poor feel for the game.

Here are the on/off numbers for GS, of players that have played at least 200 minutes, only Wiggins is worse: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

I share your concerns. Wiseman has been very underwhelming so far. Will he improve? Sure, but he needs a lot of work. To be fair, in part, it could be that he lacks experience in organized basketball, which means it could take a while before he becomes a decent starter at C.

[NatP4]

Wanted to post the on/off numbers for the Atlanta Hawks to show the impact Collins&Hunter have:

2020-2021: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612737/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Collins: 22.8 net rating, 1st on team
Hunter: 17.8 net rating, 3rd on team

2019-2020: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612737/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Collins: 3.8 net rating, tied for 2nd on team
Hunter: 3.8 net rating, tied for 2nd on team


Posted in another thread, but raptor player ratings have Collins&Hunter ranked 5th&22nd in the entire NBA, respectively. (Beal ranked 21st):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

We would have Hunter for 2 more years after this season and then RFA rights, Collins for the rest of the season and then RFA rights. Most likely 4.5 years of Collins, 6.5 years of Hunter. Atlanta also includes their 2021 1st which we can use in combination with our own pick, to try and move up if we end up picking outside the top 5. Atlanta is not going to finish with one of the top 8-10 records in the league, even with Beal. The pick probably falls into the 15-20 range.

[trast66]

This thread appears to be the last place on earth where anyone values Ben Simmons.

[Frichuela]

Wanted to post the on/off numbers for the Atlanta Hawks to show the impact Collins&Hunter have:

2020-2021: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612737/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Collins: 22.8 net rating, 1st on team
Hunter: 17.8 net rating, 3rd on team

2019-2020: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612737/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Collins: 3.8 net rating, tied for 2nd on team
Hunter: 3.8 net rating, tied for 2nd on team


Posted in another thread, but raptor player ratings have Collins&Hunter ranked 5th&22nd in the entire NBA, respectively. (Beal ranked 21st):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

We would have Hunter for 2 more years after this season and then RFA rights, Collins for the rest of the season and then RFA rights. Most likely 4.5 years of Collins, 6.5 years of Hunter. Atlanta also includes their 2021 1st which we can use in combination with our own pick, to try and move up if we end up picking outside the top 5. Atlanta is not going to finish with one of the top 8-10 records in the league, even with Beal. The pick probably falls into the 15-20 range.

If we do this trade with Atlanta, we need to probably trade Rui in the package, otherwise we have a glut at PF, where both Collins (full-time) and Hunter (part-time) play.

I guess we trade Beal + Rui for Snell, Collins, Hunter, 2021 st and either one of Okongwu or Reddish.

If we choose Okongwu, for 2021-22 we would have a rotation of:

Westbrick/2021 Wiz pick (Suggs ideally)
Troy/Matthews/Atl pick (there are a few SGs mocked 10-20)
Hunter/Advija/
Collins/Bertans
Okongwu/Bryant

[NatP4]

Wiseman has already played over 250 minutes and looks like a bust to me. He’s easily been the worst player on the warriors this season. He’s shooting less than 50% on 2s, 58% on free throws, averaging 2 more turnovers than assists per36, and really struggling defensively.

Looks like the next Bagley to me. Puts up a bunch of empty stats, doesn’t help you win, has very poor feel for the game.

Here are the on/off numbers for GS, of players that have played at least 200 minutes, only Wiggins is worse: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

I share your concerns. Wiseman has been very underwhelming so far. Will he improve? Sure, but he needs a lot of work. To be fair, in part, it could be that he lacks experience in organized basketball, which means it could take a while before he becomes a decent starter at C.

Yep, take a look at the Wiseman thread on the Warriors board.

[pcbothwel]

Wiseman has already played over 250 minutes and looks like a bust to me. He’s easily been the worst player on the warriors this season. He’s shooting less than 50% on 2s, 58% on free throws, averaging 2 more turnovers than assists per36, and really struggling defensively.

Looks like the next Bagley to me. Puts up a bunch of empty stats, doesn’t help you win, has very poor feel for the game.

Here are the on/off numbers for GS, of players that have played atleast 200 minutes, only Wiggins is worse: https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612744/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

Im not a Wiseman fan, but using On/Off numbers for such a small sample size for a 19 y/o is a bit misleading.
He has shooting touch and work ethic... Ill take that to start.
Look at this play last night @ 0:35.
In the paint, quickly changes direction to close out on Bol, but very controlled. Look how quickly he gets in an athletic stance, recognizes the fumbled pass, gathers the steal and begins the break and passes ahead... Thats a lot for a guy his size:

Watch on YouTube

Wiseman is bigger than Bagley. Bagley has a narrow frame with a 7' wingspan. Wiseman is about 2 inches taller and and 6 inches longer. His upside defensively is far higher than Bagley. Bagley will mature to about 225-230 at most... Wiseman is a lean 250 right now. Guy is massive.
And he plays the most minutes with Curry (213)... but the guys he plays the 2nd and 3rd most with are Wiggins (204) and Oubre (200). Not an easy task with those two.

1) He is either a hit and we got a AS caliber Center, or
2) He looks simply ok and we can move him next year when Bryant is back. It should be noted that outside of Mobley the Center class in 2021 is really slim and I could see a team in the late lotto willing to trade for Wiseman.

[NatP4]

If we do this trade with Atlanta, we need to probably trade Rui in the package, otherwise we have a glut at PF, where both Collins (full-time) and Hunter (part-time) play.

I guess we trade Beal + Rui for Snell, Collins, Hunter, 2021 st and either one of Okongwu or Reddish.

If we choose Okongwu, for 2021-22 we would have a rotation of:

Westbrick/2021 Wiz pick (Suggs ideally)
Troy/Matthews/Atl pick (there are a few SGs mocked 10-20)
Hunter/Advija/
Collins/Bertans
Okongwu/Bryant

If Shep pulls this off (with Okongwu, not Reddish), give that man a 3 year extension. Love it.

[SA37]

The more I think about it, the best suitor for a Beal trade continues to be Miami. All other potential suitors (GS, Min, Atl/Phi, Denver) are unlikely to offer a young talent as promising as Herro, or a top-3 pick in the 2021 draft.

Miami is currently 4-6. The window for Butler and Dragic is getting shorter. If they want to compete now, Beal is such a great fit for them. Now, how much value can we get from them?

Could we get Herro, Achiuwa and Robinson? And then, could we flip Robinson to a third party that would net us a lottery pick in the 2021 draft? IMO- this is likely to be the best option, as we would have two potential lottery picks in the 2021 draft, in addition to two promising prospects in Herro and Achiuwa.

"Trade them (Herro, Robinson, Nunn) before they get exposed next year, while their value is all-time high"

They literally have a thread with that title on their board

You are here wondering whether you can get Herro, Achiuwa, and Robinson for Beal, while they are literally wondering what can they get for their young players before their value tanks after getting exposed

That is pretty hilarious, although a lot of the posts in that thread disagree that the play of Robinson and Herro will drop off. Not much defense of Nunn, though no one on this board really wants Nunn. The thread doesn’t feature Achiuwa in the trade scenario.

I still think Herro, Achiuwa, Robinson, and a future 1st would be a solid package for Beal.

The issue is people want a star, but conveniently forget all the teams who have drafted a star that ended up leaving because the organization could not put a winning team around said star. Similarly, we've seen teams draft really good players within a year or two of each other only for one of those players to search for greener pastures (Harden/Durant/OKC - Shaq/Penny) or teams that have gotten two really good players and then not had the cap room to construct the right roster around them (Beal/Wall, McCollum/Lillard, Rashard Lewis/Ray Allen, DeRozan/Lowry).

This is precisely why I did not want to trade the young guys for Beal or Harden: no, Robinson is not going to be a star; yes, Dragic is 34; it's too early to say much with Achiuwa; Adebayo may never be a dominant offensive player; most likely Herro won't be a perennial All-NBA player; but Miami is a good team and they seem to have excellent chemistry off the court, too.

[SA37]

I don't see why Golden St. would have any interest in trading one of the only bigs they have (who happens to be the #2 pick) to add another guard to their team which is stacked with wing players -- and on top of it give Washington a bunch of picks for the pleasure.

[DCZards]

I believe we'll all eventually see what those who are already up close and personal with Wiseman are seeing and talking about as it relates to his abilities.

Here are excerpts from an article about the go-slow approach that the Warriors are taking with Wiseman:

"First of all, Theo Robertson -- one of our player development guys -- he's done a fantastic job with James," Golden State associate head coach Mike Brown said Monday morning on 95.7 The Game's "The Morning Roast" show. "A lot of one-on-one situations, a lot of development behind the scenes. Those types of guys on our staff don't get a lot of credit. Again, Theo's been fantastic.

"But James -- he does stuff on a daily basis that makes you sit back and go, 'Wow. Did he just do that? Am I seeing that?' The sky is the limit for him. I don't know if there's anything that he's not gonna be able to do when he reaches his peak."

But the situation is unique, as it's extremely rare for a talent like Wiseman to be drafted No. 2 overall and join a team like the Warriors, who expect to win a lot of games.

Because of this, Steve Kerr has not yet unleashed Wiseman. The 7-foot-1 center has started every game, but he is averaging just 16.8 minutes over the last four.

Wiseman did not play at all in the fourth quarter of Golden State's wins over the LA Clippers and Raptors on Friday and Sunday night respectively, and typically hasn't been on the floor to close out games.

"We gotta remember he's 19," Brown said on 95.7. "He played in a couple of college games. We gotta keep having some patience while he grows. And it is tricky because we do want to win, we do want to get off to a good start.

"[But] we have to keep trying to give him opportunities to experience different game situations in close games down the stretch, and throughout the course of the game. Which is gonna be tricky for us because of his inexperience and us trying to win games.

"It's a thing we have in mind what we want to do. But when things pop up, we make adjustments and we go with what what we feel is right not only for him but for the team and the growth of everybody on this journey."

[DCsOwn]

I don't see why Golden St. would have any interest in trading one of the only bigs they have (who happens to be the #2 pick) to add another guard to their team which is stacked with wing players -- and on top of it give Washington a bunch of picks for the pleasure.

You're asking why Golden St would want to trade for the league's leading scorer (on tremendous efficiency) in his prime when they have Oubre/Wiggins/Bazemore fleshing out their wing rotation atm? As mentioned previously, Beal gives them Klay insurance, supports the greatest player in their franchise's history for his remaining tenure, and gives them the ability to ease Klay back into the rotation even if he returns to something approximating his former self. Klay might be shifted to the three next season anyway given the impact the ACL and achilles injuries might have on his quickness. All for the price of a big that's likely a few years away from being a valuable contributor to a winning basketball team and a pick that might not convey this season and even if it does, could end up sixth or seventh in this years draft. The additional draft capital was intended to counterbalance this trade so as not to put the entirety of the risk on Washington's side of the ledger.

[NatP4]

Couple of the most recent posts from the Warriors Wiseman thread:


“I'm not saying that he's a bust, just that the evidence we've seen so far indicates that he's gonna struggle a little bit and has some serious flaws in his game. He'll get better obviously, but can he overcome having bricks for hands? Can he overcome being timid on the boards despite being 7'1 and more athletic than anyone else? I don't know. But acting like yes, he 100% is going to overcome all these glaring flaws because nothing ever goes wrong is... wishful thinking.”



“That's kind of where I am. The only reason I'm not totally bummed about the Wiseman pick is that he clearly has the ability to put the ball on the floor and to stretch the floor.

But other than that, he's kind of living up to all the things I hoped he wouldn't be. He doesn't like contact, he takes a lot of unnecessary 2's outside of the restricted area, and his hands are bad.”

[pcbothwel]

If we do this trade with Atlanta, we need to probably trade Rui in the package, otherwise we have a glut at PF, where both Collins (full-time) and Hunter (part-time) play.

I guess we trade Beal + Rui for Snell, Collins, Hunter, 2021 st and either one of Okongwu or Reddish.

If we choose Okongwu, for 2021-22 we would have a rotation of:

Westbrick/2021 Wiz pick (Suggs ideally)
Troy/Matthews/Atl pick (there are a few SGs mocked 10-20)
Hunter/Advija/
Collins/Bertans
Okongwu/Bryant

If Shep pulls this off (with Okongwu, not Reddish), give that man a 3 year extension. Love it.

Better yet, include Miami.
Details like draft picks not ironed out, but main structure would be:

WAS Out: Beal
WAS In: Hunter, Okongwu, Herro, Snell

ATL Out: Snell, Hunter, Collins, Okongwu
ATL In: Beal, Achiuwa

MIA Out: Herro, Achiuwa
MIA In: Collins

Westbrook / Neto
Herro / Brown
Hunter / Deni
Rui / Bertans
Okongwu / Bryant

HAWKS:
Trae
Beal
Reddish
Gallo
Capela

Bench: Bogdan, Huerter, Achiuwa

HEAT:
Dragic
Robinson
Butler
Collins
Bam

Bench: Nunn, Iggy, KO

[Frichuela]

If we do this trade with Atlanta, we need to probably trade Rui in the package, otherwise we have a glut at PF, where both Collins (full-time) and Hunter (part-time) play.

I guess we trade Beal + Rui for Snell, Collins, Hunter, 2021 st and either one of Okongwu or Reddish.

If we choose Okongwu, for 2021-22 we would have a rotation of:

Westbrick/2021 Wiz pick (Suggs ideally)
Troy/Matthews/Atl pick (there are a few SGs mocked 10-20)
Hunter/Advija/
Collins/Bertans
Okongwu/Bryant

If Shep pulls this off (with Okongwu, not Reddish), give that man a 3 year extension. Love it.

Better yet, include Miami.
Details like draft picks not ironed out, but main structure would be:

WAS Out: Beal
WAS In: Hunter, Okongwu, Herro, Snell

ATL Out: Snell, Hunter, Collins, Okongwu
ATL In: Beal, Achiuwa

MIA Out: Herro, Achiuwa
MIA In: Collins

Westbrook / Neto
Herro / Brown
Hunter / Deni
Rui / Bertans
Okongwu / Bryant

HAWKS:
Trae
Beal
Reddish
Gallo
Capela

Bench: Bogdan, Huerter, Achiuwa

HEAT:
Dragic
Robinson
Butler
Collins
Bam

Bench: Nunn, Iggy, KO

Even better! But why would Miami trade Herro+Achiuwa for Collins?

[TGW]

I hate bigs with bad hands. Reminds me of Kwame.

[pcbothwel]

Simple. MIA has some savvy players, but they really need some more dynamic/explosiveness and they are thin up front.

Kelly Olynk has a 3PAr of 71% and TRB% of 10.8%... The guy is a pure stretch 5 at this point and rebounds like a wing. If they can move Leonard, Okpala, Bradley, future protected 1st for Oladipo, I think they become a real force.

Dragic / Nunn
Dipo / Robinson
Butler / Iggy
Collins / Harkless
Bam / KO

Bottom line. Their team/timeline is currently a bit...off. With the Butler & Bam contract they wont have a max spot for another 3 years... and by that time Butler will be 34. Dipo is better than Herro now and will continue to be for another 1-2 years easy. So Collins becomes a pure upgrade over Achiuwa.

Bams passing and ability to defend multiple positions fits well with Collins ability to score from anywhere at highly efficient levels.

Butler (31), Dipo (28), Collins (23) & Bam (23) would allow for a nice 3-4 year run.
I just dont see Herro providing enough in the next 3 years.

[DCZards]

Couple of the most recent posts from the Warriors Wiseman thread:


“I'm not saying that he's a bust, just that the evidence we've seen so far indicates that he's gonna struggle a little bit and has some serious flaws in his game. He'll get better obviously, but can he overcome having bricks for hands? Can he overcome being timid on the boards despite being 7'1 and more athletic than anyone else? I don't know. But acting like yes, he 100% is going to overcome all these glaring flaws because nothing ever goes wrong is... wishful thinking.”



“That's kind of where I am. The only reason I'm not totally bummed about the Wiseman pick is that he clearly has the ability to put the ball on the floor and to stretch the floor.

But other than that, he's kind of living up to all the things I hoped he wouldn't be. He doesn't like contact, he takes a lot of unnecessary 2's outside of the restricted area, and his hands are bad.”

You can go with the opinion of fans on a message board if you want to. I prefer to go with the opinion of a teammate (Draymond Green) who has seen a LOT more of Wiseman than any GS fans.

I think he has the opportunity or the chance to be an All-Star or a premier player in this league. He has a lot of growth, a lot of room for growth — which is exciting. The things he’s able to do on the floor now that he don’t really understand — the pro game.

He don’t understand coverages, he don’t understand offensive spacing, he don’t understand none of that stuff and it’s not his fault. It’s just kind of a thing that comes with time. But to do the things out that he’s able to do out there on the floor without having an understanding of anything other than what he’s personally capable of doing, it’s pretty special. I think he’s going to be a really special player in this league and definitely for this organization.