2021 Playoff and Offseason Speculation - the playoffs. PLAYOFFS????

[nevetsov]

damn dude, Nurkic is injured AGAIN. this time fractured wrist. guy can't get a break

Seems a break is all he CAN get!

[Bogyo]

damn dude, Nurkic is injured AGAIN. this time fractured wrist. guy can't get a break

Seems a break is all he CAN get!

I wanted really him back when he was an FA - it was the same year as the Doncic draft, you know what I'm sayin?

[grumpysaddle]

I think they really underestimated how little control they have over close contact both off and on the court. They listed a bunch of places/activities that NBA players weren't allowed to partake in because they were considered high risk but with how many people even a journeyman interacts with on a daily basis, it's just near impossible to limit COVID.

I also think the NBA have accepted that they can't eliminate the covid risk unless they did the bubble thing again and that just wasnt feasible.

In all honesty, they shouldn't have started the season until they could get the vaccine. The fact that they are traveling around and largely unable to control where their players and staff go at all times is dangerous. It's just going to perpetuate the spread from one place to another. As much as they shouldn't be able to "skip the line" to get the vaccine, I wouldn't be all that mad about it. I'd rather have them traveling around vaccinated. Although even the vaccine only seems to prevent those that got it from getting sick from the virus. It most likely doesn't stop the spread. It's a difficult thing any way you look at it.

I want the vaccine. Damn it.

Hopefully the vaccine will be available for most anyone within about a month. The good thing is they only scheduled half a season and planned a two week break before the next half. So postponed games can be played then. Hopefully teams don't miss more then 5-7 games before that, and hopefully they have all taken the vaccine (or most everyone and all Suns) by the end of that break.

The break is at the beginning of March...we should be through 37 games at that point (but now at most, 34).

Hopefully players can start getting their first shots within a month or so, and then their second shots by mid March, by the end of that break.

I really hope so. One of my roommates moved out a while back, and the new one that moved in is pissing me off with his lack of Covid-safety. Just had to yell at him about having people over, even though I've already asked him a few times to not do that. I'll feel a lot better about everything, and like less of a curmudgeon after I'm inoculated. I really wish I could afford to live on my own, but San Diego is expensive as hell, and I've been out of work since March. Really hoping Biden can get his 100 million doses in the first 100 days thing done.

[Saberestar]

Read on Twitter

[Barkley6]

They're gonna have to do a bubble for the playoffs right? Almost seems like a necessity if they want good playoff games on TV

No, they won't do that. Players DO NOT want that. Everyone should have the vaccine by then.

Hopefully everyone is vaccinated by then, but if not, I think you have to do a playoff bubble. What happens when a series gets delayed 5 days to do contact tracing? That's bad for TV money, bad for both teams involved and potentially bad for a team that may be waiting for them in the next round.

[Barkley6]

Know it won't actually happen but.....

http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y3zorozz

[spanishninja]

Read on Twitter

just, kick the Wizard out of the league and give us our win back. now i truly suspect that our players knew something on that day and were totally skittish about guarding Washington.

[King4Day]

Read on Twitter

just, kick the Wizard out of the league and give us our win back. now i truly suspect that our players knew something on that day and were totally skittish about guarding Washington.

Much as I want to agree, we just sucked. Maybe if we didn't pull the same thing against Detroit...but we did

[Crives]

Hopefully no news is good news right now

[Mulhollanddrive]

Wizards now have 5 positives.

I'd be surprised if we don't have some positive tests over the weekend. Seems for whatever reason there's about 4-5 day lag before multiple hits get detected.

Going to be a huge challenge for us to return mentally especially when team fundamentals also need to be tweaked.

[Crives]

Wizards now have 5 positives.

I'd be surprised if we don't have some positive tests over the weekend. Seems for whatever reason there's about 4-5 day lag before multiple hits get detected.

Going to be a huge challenge for us to return mentally especially when team fundamentals also need to be tweaked.

Don’t doubt CP3. He probably got us vaccinated weeks ago.

[suns12345]

Wizards now have 5 positives.

I'd be surprised if we don't have some positive tests over the weekend. Seems for whatever reason there's about 4-5 day lag before multiple hits get detected.

Going to be a huge challenge for us to return mentally especially when team fundamentals also need to be tweaked.

and physically, it seems like the virus can have lingering effects on fitness etc. (like any flu i guess)

[bwgood77]

Does anyone know who was positive before? I am itching to watch the Suns but I'm not sure I'd want to watch if we only had 8 or 9 players. Definitely wouldn't want Bridges, either Cam, Ayton or Paul out. Booker were obviously hurt too, but we kind of suddenly have more depth at the 2 as well.

[cberry78]

Read on Twitter

Tim Bontemps

Wizards GM Tommy Sheppard says that nine players are in health and safety protocols — and that six of them have tested positive for COVID-19.

[Revived]

If our Monday game gets postponed then that’s a TNT game that we’re losing as well.

[grumpysaddle]

Read on Twitter

Tim Bontemps

Wizards GM Tommy Sheppard says that nine players are in health and safety protocols — and that six of them have tested positive for COVID-19.

It's ridiculous that regular people were able to see a connection between Washington and other teams having cases, and then the Suns game still was allowed to happen. That's a monumental failure in their protocols.

[Flying Colors]

it will probably be another week before we play a game at this rate

[cberry78]

Well, on the plus side, we didn't lose tonight.

Go Suns!

[cberry78]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/261209/Karl-Anthony-Towns-Tests-Positive-For-COVID-19

Read on Twitter

Really feel bad for KAT. He lost his mom and like 6 other family members to this **** already. My heart goes out to him and I wish him the very best.

[bwgood77]

The recent IV Point Play piece is good. Better to go to the link because I will only post part here and it doesn't have the videos, but this one talks about Mikal and CamJo

Spoiler:

If you compare Booker’s usage rate last season to this season currently, there is basically zero change (30.0 vs 29.6). Add starting PG, with little difference between Rubio last season (20.4) and Paul so far this season (20.1). Then you get to Oubre (22.4) compared to Crowder (14.6), to get your first big discrepancy of -7.8. It is of course no coincidence and should be no surprise then, that Bridges has gone from 12.7 to 16.0 (+3.3) and Johnson from 15.7 to 20.3 (+4.6) to eat all of that difference up. It also shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone watching, that Ayton has had his usage slide from 23.7 to 18.7 this season.

This has all resulted in more touches (and shots) for the likes of Mikal and Cam. And now we get back to why both team and player wouldn’t be surprised at their impact through 11 games in Season 2020/21. This is who they are, they just needed the opportunity to show it. In some respects, they may have even more to show and there is likely going to be that opportunity to do so going forward.

Let’s take a look at how Mikal and Cam flashed a lot of what they are doing when in College and how it’s translating into the NBA. Via clips (WARNING! and stats, there’s going to be more stats) I want to look at how some of it shouldn’t be a surprise at all and how some further leaps this season, shouldn’t catch you off guard either.

Don’t Leave Them

Let’s start with the very obvious, shall we? Per Synergy numbers, Mikal and Cam ranked in the 98th and 97th percentile respectively on Spot Up possessions in their final year at College. It was also the play-type each player had the most reps in during their last season. That’s basically just a fancy way of saying the Suns got two damn good shooting prospects.

And while one has taken a slightly different route to the other so far in the Pros, they are both excelling in similar situations so far this season. On Spot Ups this year, Mikal ranks in the 82nd percentile and Cam the 78th. Arguably both with room to improve there, that’s still far ahead of Oubre last season who was in the 60th percentile.

We all know Johnson can shoot. The real threat he possesses is the deep range. His chemistry with Cam Payne in the second unit, reminds me a lot of the way he worked with Coby White at UNC. Watch below as defenders shade the lane to prevent the drive in both clips but Johnson is just a cheat code of a release valve.

Cam Johnson is 7/17 (41%) from the Right Wing 3 this season.
Then there’s Johnson’s ability to head fake himself into an even better shot. Something he showed much earlier in College. He can take one dribble left or right, taking his shot while the close out defender sails on by. College or the Pros, it’s all the same to him.

Cam Johnson is 7/14 (50%) from the Right Corner 3 this season.
So what about Mikal? As I alluded to earlier, his shooting confidence has been a much rockier road so far but you don’t need me to tell you that. We’ve ALL felt it. However, it was more than just blind faith if you believed he could turn things around. If you watched him rise up on the catch below versus Denver, you will have seen a guy we’d seen many times before. This sweet stroke was a regular occurrence for Villanova. Nice to see it back.

Mikal Bridges is 8/11 (73%) from the Right Wing 3 this season.
Whether it’s College or the NBA, Mikal sitting in the corner for guards to kick to is a huge luxury to have. The Suns Guards are even more dangerous on penetration than Bridges’ options at ‘Nova, so expect even more help off situations this season.

Mikal Bridges is 9/16 (56%) from the Left Corner 3 this season.

Lost In Transit

The next play-type Bridges and Johnson both excelled at in College, was in Transition. Both rated as ‘Excellent’ with Synergy and it was also next in line after Spot Up possessions in terms of frequency. Their mix of shooting and size, make them a nightmare to guard in the open court.

As does their ability to make good decisions. This is a much more underrated skill and a big reason Oubre only rated as ‘Very Good’ last season, despite his eye-catching athleticism. This season, Bridges and Johnson are 90th percentile or above.

Mikal often ends up with the ball in hands in transition on the back of defensive impact plays. At Villanova, his ability to get all the way to the rim was a big reason for his impressive transition numbers. It was also a big reason why defenders forced him to give the ball up once he’d crossed half court (see below). However, the Suns have other dangerous weapons out there and defenders don’t quite believe in his shooting yet. But they will soon, if he keeps pulling up like this.

Mikal Bridges is 15/24 and generating 1.48 PPP in Transition this season.
As for Cam, he has also shown an ability to get all the way to the rim for both UNC and the Suns. But his true threat in transition, is to knock down open threes as the trail man on the break. Compare the flow and spacing in the two plays below and watch how in the Suns clip, Johnson holds himself back as everyone else gets down court. A beautifully timed run for Jevon Carter to pick up the assist.

Cam Johnson is 10/16 and generating 1.48 PPP in Transition this season.

Off Screen Roles

While the first two play-types will be fairly familiar with Suns fans watching Johnson and Bridges, this next one hasn’t been seen quite as much. But the trend continues - Off-Screens, Cam (97th) and Mikal (91st) both ranked in the upper echelon of College players in their final year. It wasn’t used quite as much then and it certainly isn’t now.

But maybe it should be called upon some more, given their College stats? This is one area where both players are already much more advanced than Oubre, who ranked just 29th percentile last season, but also still have plenty of room to grow.

For Johnson, he could present a real threat from deep if his name was called for more designed sets within Off Screens action. You can see below that Bridges essentially calls him into the corner and screens off his own man, thankfully with Payne finding him open. Now watch the UNC clip and imagine Bridges and Ayton setting an Elevator Screen for Johnson to get to the same spot.

Cam Johnson went 32/58 (55%) Off Screens his last season in College.
Bridges on the other hand is flashing a different skill Off Screens inside the arc and that could signal a move by the Suns to replicate some of his College play. The Villanova play below is reminiscent of the Suns ‘Fist’ play, which we touched on alllllll the way back in this Newsletter’s very First Issue. The next Suns play is ‘52’ out of their Horns Action (also in that Issue). Bridges knocks down the mid-range J curling Off Screens in both. But what is more interesting about both of these plays? The Suns almost exclusively run these for Booker. High praise for Bridges and perhaps a sign of things to come.

Mikal Bridges is 6/11 (55%) Off Screens this season.

Death By 1000 Cuts

Cam and Mikal are ‘Excellent’ at Cutting. Literally. Yet another less frequently used play-type for the Suns two Wings this season but Surprise Surprise, yet another where both rated 89th percentile or above in College.

Another area the Suns could improve this season, starting perhaps with Johnson and Bridges. It won’t shock you that Phoenix ranked 2nd in the NBA last season in Cut Frequency. It also likely won’t shock you that this season so far, they rate just 19th in the league.

One of my favorite skills of Cam Johnson in College, was his ability to slip screens and cut his way down a wide open lane. He shows that below for you. He also illustrates in the second clip how the danger of him popping over an Ayton screen for 3, allows him a clear lane down the middle while his defender gambles the wrong way. An easy read for CP3.

As for Mikal, he came into the NBA with a reputation of being a terrific cutter off the ball and last year really showed that chemistry with Rubio. But is it any surprise? The spacing difference in the below clips is laughable. If Bridges can find the tiny hole amongst the crowd in College, of course he can catch his defender sleeping to attack that ocean of space in the NBA. As the Suns main weapons heat up this season and take more of the defense’s attention, look for Mikal to get back to his best off the ball.

For Bridges, his untapped potential might exist in another area where he can look a little Booker-esque. We are just starting to see Mikal operate in the Pick & Roll as a ball-handler, a play-type he ran very effectively just 61 times his final season in the NCAA. Watch below as the finish is almost a mirror image of one another, while the lead up shows a little more patience to navigate far better defense in the NBA.

A Tale Of Two Defenders

As defenders, Bridges and Johnson couldn’t have been viewed any more different coming out of College. While Mikal had a reputation as a good defender, Cam’s reputation was a negative one.

I really only have two points to make here. Well actually, three.

Mikal Bridges’ reputation was warranted - he is the Suns best defender.

Cam Johnson’s reputation was unfair - he is actually quite sound defensively.

Fundamentally, both are better defenders than Kelly Oubre, especially within a team construct.

Guarding in the post might be the final piece Bridges needs to master, in order to become one of the NBA’s elite. With a bit more strength to go with his ridiculous length, the below clips might become much more common.

With Johnson, I’m not sure we should be so surprised. He had corrective surgery to improve his mobility and there were still examples in College of him successfully guarding NBA level talent. Look at him slide his feet while maintaining strength against Duke teammates Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson.

So What Does It All Mean?

Now let’s end just how we started. With some more numbers.

Bridges’ Usage Rate in his final season at Villanova was 23.2. Currently for the Suns it is 16.0. He is currently the second leading scorer for the Suns at 15.1 PPG, within a very balanced attack that still has room to improve. He was also the second leading scorer for the Villanova team that won the National Title in his final year. And that attack was also very well balanced, with six scorers averaging double digits. Everyone expects Paul or Ayton to get going at some stage, but history would suggest Bridges might not be totally out of place sitting right behind Booker on offense.

Going forward, the Suns have two extremely valuable NBA Wings who are still on their rookie scale contracts. This season for instance, the combined salary of Crowder, Johnson and Bridges is $17.8 million. Oubre’s salary on his own is $14.3 million. Next season, Bridges and Johnson will only cost a combined $10 million. Kelly Oubre will be an Unrestricted Free Agent.

The Phoenix Suns had a choice of which of their 24 year old Wings was best to keep around and early indications suggest they chose right.

But none of that matters without the productive on-court play from the guys who stayed in the purple and orange. (No comment on the current play of the one wearing blue and yellow).

Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson have surprised the NBA through 11 games this season, thanks to an opportunity to produce in ideal roles. Just don’t be shocked if they both look even better after 61 more. I know I won’t be.

I definitely suggest subscribing. It's free. https://thefourpointplay.substack.com/p/vol2-iss5-addition-by-subtraction