What would you say are the total pros and cons of the Harden trade?

[gigantes]

Imagine you're an NBA analyst for a moment, and not just a Nets' fan. What would be your pros and cons? Since I drew the short straw, I'll go first...

PROS

- We arguably have the biggest of 'big threes' in the league. Now, the relevant point of that is that it's going to be almost impossible to stop us from scoring, particularly in crunch time and in the playoffs, when points are at their most valuable. We are absolutely going to break hearts at the last minute, due to our special players. And that's the way that works.

- We have our big three for at least this season and next, assuming good health. And, given how so many players love the franchise, you also have to think that all three, or at least two of them, choose an option for a third year.

- There's an argument that KD and Harden are ~just~ on the cusp of aging out of their primes, but when you look at their actual play, they're still rocking on with huge efficacy. Indeed, the way Durant has bounced back from the most crushing injury in sports still doesn't get enough credit IMO. You could not possibly ask a player to better live up to their rep, particularly a superstar. Even more weirdly-- KD might be better than ever.

CONS

- The Rockets were getting increasingly desperate at this point, and multiple sources indicate Fertitta (what a weirdo, for any number of reasons) kept turning down the Sixers. In other words, we should have been in the driver's seat to acquire The Beard at a real discount. Instead, I don't think any NBA analyst alive would argue that we didn't pay a super-heavy price, instead. It's almost like we paid back HOU for their litany of foolish trades and foolish decisions, the last couple of years. Bah...

- The loss of Fro in particular is immediately devastating to our center rotation and our defense. Seriously, I would have thought that given all we paid in the deal, we shouldn't have needed to give up big Jarrett, even if it was also true that re-signing him was going to be a major problem next season. Point is-- we NEEDED HIM. And sure, he certainly wasn't a 'do-everything big man,' but in real-world terms, he was super valuable to us.

- In terms of the raw price Sean Marks paid in the deal, I currently see it like this-- giving up 3-4 picks & swaps for likely 2-3 three years of the Big Three would have been an outrageous steal. That's my baseline in which we easily, absurdly would have won the trade. Problem is, the more we gave away, the more of a clear reach the whole thing became. As in, for me personally, SEVEN DAMN picks & swaps is just 1-2 too many, plus giving up both Caris & Fro. Again, we should have been in the driver's seat upon this matter, with Harden insisting he wouldn't cooperate unless traded to us. What the fluff went wrong with all that, yo...?

- Harden still makes very little sense to me, trying to fit him with 7-11, also both dominant ball-handers. Indeed, James is arguably the greatest high-usage player in NBA history, whose best productivity in terms of a team involves him controlling everything, with a roster of willing, complementary players to fill in the blanks. Historically, Allen Iverson and the Sixers was one of the rare times that model made it to the finals, and maintaining that turned out to be a huge clusterfluff. As with the Beard (almost knocking off the Warriors), it worked ONCE, and self-imploded after that. Things like this are a real problem IMO.

- The trade (and Spencer's killer injury) leaves us with very little depth on our team, past Joe. That scares me, frankly. I happen to love Clax, and hope he can return with a vengeance, and maybe / hopefully Reggie Perry is another great Marks pick, but still. This is a damn thin roster, outside of the greats. Yeah, sometimes that works out, but let's be honest-- sometimes that model prematurely goes down in flames, not even making a conference final.


Okay, what you got?

[Sharcm1]

Pros. Potentially the most lethal offensive team ever created. If one goes down with injury you have two others right there. It will be super hard for other teams to defend this team. Usually teams plan around stopping one maybe two players but three players is hard. Harris will get tons of open looks.

Cons. The big one is can they make it work. I have no doubts about Durant. He has done it before. But Irving and harden are ball dominant players who play similar games. How that works will be everything. If it doesn’t work then what. If they don’t win a championship this year or next then what. They essentially traded away any future they could ever have if this all doesn’t work.

Main concern. That they don’t win and Durant Irving and harden opt out and leave in 2023. And the nets owe five more years of first round picks after That to the rockets, potentially could be worse than the Celtics trade.

[DarkXaero]

I disagree with most of those cons. To me, the real one is potentially losing these 3 players after two years, and not having picks control after that, but that's ways off for now, its hard to really discuss that too much. Aside from that, the loss of Allen is the only real loss here but it's not something that we can't mitigate. We have our exceptions, 2nd round picks, and contracts to use in a trade if need be. I also disagree that we have "very little depth on our team". On the contrary, we're actually very deep for a team with three superstars.

[Shark]

The picks don't bother me too much. And I trust Marks' would be able to rebuild the team with limited resources. I think losing Allen is probably the biggest con just because we'll be relying on DJ and two young and inexperienced players in Perry and Claxton. Could be remedied by signing another big though.

[gigantes]

Thanks for weighing in, fellas. We probably didn't need another thread for this, but I was away for a bit, and fell way behind on the main Harden thread (and others) to gather more reactions.

I also agree that the rest of the roster could be a deep one if the vets maintain their best levels, and the younger (or underused) players develop a little faster than predicted. Claxton seems even more of a shot in the dark than ever, as it now appears he won't return until mid-March or so.

Right now I do have to think (trying to be an analyst) that the Nets are once again likely looking at another wasteland stretch of years after these guys are done. Now yeah, it certainly helps that Marks will be in charge to do the best he can with all that, just like last time. But still. I also do think there's some amount of chance that A) the big three decides to re-up for one last big contract with us, and B) KD and Beard in particular find a LeBron-esque ability to maintain a high level past their sheer primes. We're certainly in a much better place with that stuff than we were with KG and Pierce, who were older and more shopworn at the same point. Might as well make the best of it, then.

Btw, I got a pleasant surprise the other day discovering that 538 finally rebooted their RAPTOR BPM system for the new season. Thanks again for replying in this thread:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

[Wow Awesome]

- Harden still makes very little sense to me, trying to fit him with 7-11, also both dominant ball-handers. Indeed, James is arguably the greatest high-usage player in NBA history, whose best productivity in terms of a team involves him controlling everything, with a roster of willing, complementary players to fill in the blanks. Historically, Allen Iverson and the Sixers was one of the rare times that model made it to the finals, and maintaining that turned out to be a huge clusterfluff. As with the Beard (almost knocking off the Warriors), it worked ONCE, and self-imploded after that. Things like this are a real problem IMO.

I completely disagree with this. Harden was as ball-dominant as he was with the Rockets out of necessity. There was nobody else to handle the ball anywhere near as effectively. The one year where Harden had another capable and effective ball-handler and scorer next to him in Chris Paul (who was past his prime, by the way), the Rockets won 65 games and were a hamstring away from knocking off the Warriors, and in all likelihood winning the Finals.

If it wasn’t for the Warriors dynasty rising up right during Harden’s prime, he probably would have at least 1 championship. Houston lost to them in the WCF twice.

Iverson, however, was an absolute chucker. That isn’t Harden at all. In Philly, Iverson’s TS% was 51%. Harden’s in Houston was around 62%. Harden was by far the more efficient scorer. Harden also averaged about 7 rebounds and 9 assists his last 4 seasons in Houston compared to Iverson’s 3 rebounds and 5 assists.

To recap, per 36:

Harden: 32.2 ppg, 61.8% TS%, 6.7 reb, 8.8 assists
Iverson: 24.2 ppg, 51.2% TS%, 3.4 reb, 5.3 assists

Iverson isn’t even in Harden’s league. I have no idea how that Sixers team made it to the Finals.

Harden makes his teams way better when he controls the offense. Iverson hurt his teams because he got his points at the expense of efficiency and also wasn’t much of a distributor.

Harden has never missed the playoffs in his entire career and in Houston they had basically a 50-win floor. He didn’t have the help to go all the way.. it’s not an indictment on his style of play. Harden never had an all-star teammate until this last year when Westbrook made the all-star team. Let that sink in. And Westbrook is the chucker of all chuckers. Like Iverson, he hurts his teams.

Just about every star player in the league has had an all-star teammate.. except for Harden. Curry had multiple all-stars. Durant did on the Warriors. LeBron has played with many all-stars. Even guys like KAT had Jimmy Butler. Who also played with all-stars in Philly. Kawhi, AD, Paul George, etc. all had all-star teammates. Just go down the list.

Harden never did. The only “stars” Harden played with were Dwight and CP3, who were both past their prime and never made an all-star team in Houston. And Westbrook sucks and isn’t deserving of being an all-star in my opinion. Harden has not had someone next to him to share the load like other stars have had. He’s had to carry the weight alone. Put a true all-star player in his prime next to Harden and see what happens.

All this is to say that Harden is an absolute monster, and with Durant next to him this team is going to absolutely destroy the league.

[Prokorov]

Pros:
-We got from another contender in the mix to one of the 2 clear cut favorites to win title with the lakers.

-Kyrie/Harden/KD are an ELITE fit. I find it absurd some are questioning "how it will work". Well it worked on multiple olympic teams. There is plenty of ball to go around (KD/Kyrie/Levert had 30% usage each this year prior to the deal). Some say "they are all ISO players" but thats only half true. all 3 are elite catch and shoot players with good to great court vision. So every time down the floor an ELITE iso scorer has the ball vs another teams 3rd best defender with 2 elite floor spacers around him.

-We have 3 guys who can rebound, push, and get an easy bucket. this is an underrated thing.

-We gave up next to nothing. it is among the cheapest prices paid for a healthy in-prime top 5 player

Cons

-losing fro kinda stinks

[ecuhus1981]

Pros: in short, we legitimize our title contention, going from a plucky, tough out to a dynastic possibility. It's JAMES FREAKING HARDEN!!!

Cons: we worsened an already thorny problem with interior defense. We can fix it through a trade or free agency, but it won't be easy

[Whiskey Slick]

PROS

We added one of the best players in the world, now we have a legit BIG 3, which is to say three of the TOP 10 players in the NBA, and that's how you win championships nowadays, or at least give yourself a good chance to win them ... provided one of the BIG 3 doesn't get hurt, or worse, suddenly decides he just doesn't feel like playing basketball anymore (KYRIE). I'd even consider trading him for Drummond & Garland after that stunt.

I mean who does what Kyrie just did? WHO DOES THAT?!?! He's only getting away with it because he's Kyrie.

But I digress ...

BTW when you consider what a sniper Joe Harris is, but can also drive and score, we have close to a BIG 4.

CONS

Jarrett Allen looked bigger, stronger and was just starting to hit his stride as a starting Center. Much better rebounder, inside defender and at second chance put-backs. Clearly better than Jordan who is on the downside while Allen is on the upside. Definitely we got lucky in the draft with Reggie Perry, but he's more of a PF. However at 6' 10"/250 he's big enough to hold the fort (as Parcells used to say) until reenforcement's arrive in the form of Nic Claxton, which sounds like 4 to 6 weeks. Of course Jordan will be splitting minutes with Reggie at the 5 too. But IMO this is the biggest CON to the trade, bigger than losing Lavert even if he's the more talented player (and prayers for his health), because Bruce Brown was another terrific acquisition for Marks.