MagicFan101 wrote:People like to say that the team with the worst record is most likely to end up with the #5 pick.
This is false.
The team with the worst record is more likely to get the #5 pick than any other selection in pair-wise odds. However, the odds of getting a #1-4 pick is higher than getting the #5 pick.
Likewise for the second worst team. Their highest individual spot is also #5 but they are collectively more likely to land within the top 4.
... and on down it goes.
Specifically, the worst three teams all have the same odds to land a top-4 pick in the collective: 52.14%.
According to that narrative, being worst or third-worst is the same.
It is a weird shape for most probable selection. For example:
worst = 5th
second worst = 5th
Obviously both teams cannot land at their most probable slot.
And this continues to pair. As:
third worst = 6th
fourth worst = 6th
fifth worst = 7th
sixth worst = 7th
seventh worst = 8th
eight worst = 8th
I for one am interested to see how the league will place teams in the draft when they progress/fail in the play-in games.
For example: Does a 7th seed that fails to make the playoffs go in to the draft? What about a 10-seed that does make the playoffs?
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