Draft Pick Value / NFL Comps

[JMAC3]

I am probably going to get murdered on this take, because every time I post something that is a cross sport analogy it can never be applicable. If anything have a little fun with this post and do not take everything I say in here and try to overanalyze it, I am working with mostly generalities at this point, but I would not mind doing a more in depth research piece on this at some point.

There are 53 Roster spots on an NFL team and every year the average team adds 7 players to their team, so that is a 13% of the teams total roster. In the NBA rosters are 15 players and every team adds 2 players on average to their team, so that is 13% of the teams total roster. In the NFL there is 7 rounds vs 2 rounds of the draft, so at first glance they appear completely different, but if you deep dive into the drafts you can find some similarities.

For example in the NFL when you draft in the first round you are expecting to find a day 1 starter/difference maker with upside to be the face of your offense/defense. However in the NBA that is not what you can expect out of a 1st round pick, more than likely you are only expecting that out of players selected between 1-8ish. And obviously they are not all created the same, higher picks in the first round of NFL draft have higher expectations, just like higher picks in the NBA draft 1-3 have higher expectations. Overall though I think you are expecting guys selected 1-8 to be day 1 starters most of the time with room to grow into something much bigger.

In the second round in the NFL you are hoping to find another starter, but maybe he needs a little more time before he can be an everyday starter, to me that is the 9-16ish range in NBA draft, you are counting on this guy being a starter sooner rather than later. The third round in the NFL draft is the money round, if you can find guys that can contribute early in their career you did a great job, most teams can find good players in the first and second round, but the third round starts to get dicey. That is the remainder of the first round in the NBA draft to me, 17-30 where you are hoping to find a contributor, but teams are going to simply pick guys that do not work out. NBA teams that find good players late in the first are typically good teams and I believe it is the same with NFL teams who can find good talent in the third, it gives you a massive competitive advantage over other teams.

After that in the NFL draft rounds 4-7, you are really hoping maybe one of those guys works out each year from your draft. If you can find 3 good players every draft then you are probably safe, but if you can find 4 good players every year then you are killing it. Here is a rough draft on how I think things cross match between the NFL and NBA and also a list of Hornets players and where they fall on the spectrum.

So to recap
NFL Round = NBA draft range
1st round= Picks 1-8
2nd round= Picks 9-16
3rd round= Picks 17-30
4th round = Picks 31-37
5th round= Picks 38-45
6th round= Picks 46-52
7th round= Picks 53-60

So to put this in comparison.
Lamelo is a first rounder in NFL
PJ, Bridges and Monk are second rounders in NFL
Cody Martin, Vernon Carey and Devonte are 4th round rounders in NFL
Nick Richards is a fifth rounder in the NFL
Jalen McDaniels is a sixth rounder in the NFL
Grant Riller is a seventh rounder in NFL

If you were an NFL GM and fans were upset that your 4th and 5th round picks were not able to play day 1, how would you respond? Especially after you have had success with two 4th round picks in the past. If Grant Riller turns out to be a guy that is on the team for 4-6 years then I think that is a great pick, but if he fails then you can not really hold it against Mitch. Most 7th round prospects in the NFL are lucky to be on a practice squad (Two-Way Contract) and never really get a chance to show their potential.

[DY_nasty]

these cross sport comps suck

[SWedd523]

these cross sport comps suck

Lmaoooooo stop

JMAC: I see what you're getting at, and I like it, I'd just like to add that it's difficult to make a cross-sport comparison when one guy on an NBA roster can have a massive impact, whereas NFL rosters field more guys on any given play than you see in a typical NBA team's rotation.

I know you're talking raw numbers for comparison's sake, but it isn't a direct correlation... More of an exponential growth impact

[JMAC3]

these cross sport comps suck

Lmaoooooo stop

JMAC: I see what you're getting at, and I like it, I'd just like to add that it's difficult to make a cross-sport comparison when one guy on an NBA roster can have a massive impact, whereas NFL rosters field more guys on any given play than you see in a typical NBA team's rotation.

I know you're talking raw numbers for comparison's sake, but it isn't a direct correlation... More of an exponential growth impact

Obviously, it is not going to be perfect, but I was just trying to put things into perspective.

Crazy to me how no cross sport analogies can be taken seriously because Basketball is Basketball and Football is Football.

I do believe that one guy can make a huge difference in Basketball, but that shouldn't change how you view a late first round pick a success or a late 2nd round pick a failure. It can put a stronger emphasis on the guy you take in the top 5, but not sure anyone should be counting on the 45th pick in the draft changing their franchise.

It is like saying "Well Tom Brady was a success as a late pick, so late picks can be franchise changing" I am looking at it from a what is most likely to happen and not a one off situation.

[JMAC3]

A lot of this boils back down to what makes a player a success or a failure.

Example: Nic Batum was a failure to us because he was making 27 million dollars per year, but he is a great success for the Clippers because he is making 2 Million per year.

The same with MKG, he was the 2nd pick in the draft and never lived up to the hype and therefore he was seen as huge failure rightfully so, but if we had taken him with the 25th pick then maybe we would of viewed him differently.

I think we need to start thinking like that with our current roster. PJ has exceeded expectations of the 12th pick thus far and has done a lot of things well, but sometimes because we need a 2nd/3rd star we set expectations super high for him and he falls short of that.

Dwyane Bacon for all accounts should have been seen as a huge success here because he was the 40th pick in the draft, but because we needed a second star so badly next to Kemba we set lofty goals that a player of his draft status should never have to fill.

My point is I feel like some have the expectation that if Carey or Richards don't evolve into a future starter for us then they will be failures too, and I just have a completely different view on what they need to do to be successful.

[SWedd523]

these cross sport comps suck

Lmaoooooo stop

JMAC: I see what you're getting at, and I like it, I'd just like to add that it's difficult to make a cross-sport comparison when one guy on an NBA roster can have a massive impact, whereas NFL rosters field more guys on any given play than you see in a typical NBA team's rotation.

I know you're talking raw numbers for comparison's sake, but it isn't a direct correlation... More of an exponential growth impact

Obviously, it is not going to be perfect, but I was just trying to put things into perspective.

Crazy to me how no cross sport analogies can be taken seriously because Basketball is Basketball and Football is Football.

I do believe that one guy can make a huge difference in Basketball, but that shouldn't change how you view a late first round pick a success or a late 2nd round pick a failure. It can put a stronger emphasis on the guy you take in the top 5, but not sure anyone should be counting on the 45th pick in the draft changing their franchise.

It is like saying "Well Tom Brady was a success as a late pick, so late picks can be franchise changing" I am looking at it from a what is most likely to happen and not a one off situation.

What I'm saying is change your numbers so that it isn't a direct translation from 255 picks to 60, meaning 127 picks are equivalent NBA first rounders, 63ish being lottery, etc.

NBA picks have generally exponential value growth as you go higher, whereas NFL picks are more linear in nature.

If you catch my drift

[JDR720]

The NBA is a lot more top heavy. You can get star caliber NFL players in almost any round, but 2nd round or even late 1st NBA picks have a hard time even playing. I think that is due to a much larger pool, and most NFL players (or really all of them) are technically specialists.

In terms of pure trade value, a draft pick that'd land you a star QB is worth way more than any NBA pick would get. Teams would trade their whole team at a chance to draft a star QB.

[predators]

I would put the first round as all 7 rounds of the draft.

2nd rounders are the equivalent of Undrafted Free Agents in the NFL.