RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #46 (Chauncey Billups)

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Bernard King 1984 playoffs, 12 games, 34.8 ppg, FG 57.4%, EFG 57.4%, TS 62%
Only Kareem and Bernard King have had a playoff season of 6 or more games during which they scored 33 or more points per game at 55 or better percent FG%. Using EFG% or TS% doesn't change this.

Yes it is more of a peaks thing. Yes King did not have a good reputaion for defense. But his peak was something else and he was not ball dominant.

Unsure what you mean by the bolded.

But for instance, Donovan Mitchell has 36.3ppg average on a playoff season above 6 games (7) - and a higher per possession rate to boot (50.5 per 100, to King's 42.4 - a significant gap). Mitchell matches King's TS% (again, more than ... though era differences - .696 to .620).

King's is a larger (though not large, especially talking on a career scale) sample. King had a series (over half their games) against a good defense.

You could move the games threshold to cut out Mitchell but it just highlights the arbitrariness of threshold achievements.

A list of people that did what Donavan Mitchel did might also just be Donavan Mitchel and Kareem and maybe one other guy. Mitchell's achievement also isn't an arbitrary achievement. Sleepy Floyd getting hot for one game is an arbitrary achievement. Mitchel's era is easier to scre efficientl in but as you point out the faster paced 1984 is easier to be a volume scorer in than 2020.

The point of making the list is that I feel like Bernard King was the most underrated player on these all time player lists.

Since I joined RealGM in 2005, Real GM has gotten to longevity focussed for my taste and I think this happened because the longevity focus pleases the fans of LeBron, Kobe, Dirk, KG and Duncan which is the majority of the RealGm community. There has always been too much focus on rings, and the Jordan and Magic fans may be responsible for that.

Besides recency bias, lack of longevity, and lack rings the other reason Bernard King is being underrated is that people confuse older Bernard King playing with a severely messed up Knee with pre injury/surgery Bernard King. Then there were many years on bad teams during which King played bad defense. King's 1984 playoff defense was fairly good. Bird got hot. Maybe King should have played better defense on Tripuka but peak Kelly Tripuka was also a great scorer.

I made my list after the 2017 playoffs when Basketball references stat cherry picking tools were free. Then I revisited the list to make sure that people were not topping King with TS% or EFG%. Then I paid some attention to whether or not recent LeBron would get on the list. I made a mistake in not noticing that LeBron topped King in EFG% in 2018 while getting my required 33 points a game. LeBron just barely failed to match King in TS%.

I did cherry picking for Bernard King, Requiring 6 games cuts Hakeem out. It has been about 3 years since I used Basketball reference to search for people that matched Bernard King's achievement. That part of basketball reference is now beyond a paywall that I am not paying for, but I was checking to make sure that LeBron and others did not match King's numbers. I started by using FG% as my criteria. But I later thought about people like Curry and realized that FG% is not as important as EFG% or TS% so I revisited the the concept of King's achievement to make sure that It would still be just King and Kareem if the 3 point shooters were included or if Somebody Like Dantley or LeBron or Jordan could get above King with free throw shooting getting their TS% above King's TS%. I found that King will stay ahead of the others even if I change the criteria to EFG% or TS%.

I did cherry pick stats to Keep LeBron, Jordan and Wilt out of the list. But used 55% FG% because it is a round number and I did not need King's actual FG 57.4% to keep King on an exclusive list with Kareem.

I did not come back and check to see if anybody other than LeBron from last year's playoffs got added to the list. Mitchel misses the my original list because his FG% was not high enough, but I would add him if he could top king on EFG% or TS%. King did not shoot 3s and because quick release rather than foul drawing was the key to his game TS% does not help King. Donovan Mitchel would join the list based on his EFG% and TS% topping King. I just did update for last years's playoffs other than to make sure LeBron who is often close to King's number did not get in. Actually 2018 LeBron gets the required points and tops King's EFG% but does not get to FG 55% or to King's TS 62%..

The list was valid after the 2017 playoffs and would still be valid if I moved the games requirement to get Donovan Mitchel off the list and I would have to take the beating King on EFG% off my criteria and just stick to FG% and TS%. King just barely beats 2018 LeBron on TS%. 2017 LeBron just barely misses the list on points per game. i still don't count LeBron as matching King's efficiency because efficiency is easier to achieve with the spacing created by modern 3 shooting. Also with all talk about how LeBron had to carry scrubs to the finals in 2007, LeBron's 2007 "scrubs" were a better offensive group than the 1984 teammates of Bernard King that got within one game of makings the finals.

I just checked whether i missed something from Butler and Giannis like I missed Mtchell since I can no longer use Basketball Reference as my stat cherry picking tool. Nope no threat from them. James Harden's 2020 regular season points per game and TS% with all the gift fouls is high enough but I am talking playoffs.

But what inspired me to make the cherry picked list is that people don't get that peak King was in super exclusive company as a first option scorer. 2nd rate versions of King were very good scorers but not all time greats.

I still feel like Peak Bernard King's super eliteness should get King higher on these all time great players lists. I was a Celtic fan in 1984. Bird can't top 1984 King as a first option scorer. Bird was great but Bird also had help. I cherry picked Jordan out of the list and Jordan was a better scorer than King but the fact that I was able to cherry pick Jordan out of the list says something about how great King was. Not being able to cherry pick Kareem out of the list says something about how great Kareem was.

LeBron has often been near making the list but I consider King a better scorer than LeBron because 3 point shooting based increased floor spacing and touch make it easier to score now. How many guys peaked as better scorers than LeBron's peak?

LeBron dominates the ball and gets assists. Bernard King may have been one of the least ball dominant of all the great scorers. King scored so quickly after getting the ball.

The guys I cherry picked out were guys like Jordan, Wilt, Barkey, and Hakeem who are all already on this top 100 list. Maybe I got rid of some other second tier scorer with my games requirement. I think 5 games would have gotten rid of late 1980s early 1990s Hakeem. There was probably a guy like Donavin Mitchell that was hot for 5 games that I had to exclude by requiring 6 games. But Mitchell may end up with a highly regarded career.


King not getting higher on these all time lists just seems wrong.

[Hal14]

And why is that? Billups is actually the prototype of what a point guard should be.

Payton often let that trash talk trash his own team or give momentum to others. His outside shot wasn't as good as Billups' and his offensive arsenal wasn't as complete.

Yes he was a better defender. It's not like Billups was a liability on that end either.

I'd give pace control to Billups too and intangibles.

So why is so bad to vote Billups over Payton?

Payton was a better scorer - better playmaker/facilitator - quicker off the dribble / better penetrator - more explosive as a threat leading the break in transition compared to Billups who walked the ball up the court - kept pressure on the defense more in the half court as well as opposed to Billups who simply brought the ball up and dished it off to the wing for a Pistons team that had a boring offense and lost in one of the most boring / unwatchable NBA finals of all time in 2005.

Scoring-wise, Payton averaged 20+ PPG 8 times. Billups did it 0 times.

Payton was a better playmaker. Payton averaged 7+ APG 11 times. Billups did it only 3 times.

All of these advantages Payton had as an offensive weapon, despite the fact that
a) Payton played most of his career (and his entire prime) before hand checking started to actually be enforced more in the 04-05 season - compared to Billups who played most of his career (and his entire prime) AFTER hand checking was enforced more
b) Payton played most of his career (and his entire prime) before defensive 3 seconds rule was introduced in 01-02 season which means Payton had a higher degree of difficulty to accumulate points and assists with opposing bigs clogging up the paint - compared to Billups who played most of his career (and his entire prime) AFTER defensive 3 second rule was introduced
c) Billups played in the era which was by far more "3 pointer friendly" with an increase in 3 pointers being taken during Billups' prime which resulted in a) Billups is naturally going to be a better outside shooter since that's the way the league had evolved in his era and b) more emphasis on 3 point shooting in Billups era = increased spacing = easier for Billups to have room to operate in the post, more space in the lane to dish off to teammates, simply easier to create offense and accumulate posts and assists than Payton had in a less 3 point friendly era
d) Payton played most of his career in an era dominated by big men (Shaq, Ewing, Robinson, Mourning, Mutombo, Hakeem, etc.) whereas Billups rise to stardom came precisely at a time when we saw a huge increase in smaller guards dominating the NBA (Nash wins 2 MVPs magically after being a bum his first few years - did he somehow turn into a better player? No. Rules changes and evolution of the game now favored point guards, Derrick Rose wins MVP, Chris Paul, Steph Curry,. Westbrook, etc.) the game evolved to favor 3 point shooting and point guards which made it easier for Billups to thrive
e) Billups played in a weak eastern conference, which typically only had 1 or 2 teams who were legit contenders compared to Payton who was battling it out every year in the 90s west which was insanely competitive (Suns, Rockets, Sonics, Spurs, Jazz, Lakers, Blazers and then you have the 91 Warriors and 94 Nuggets, it was a battle!)

Not to mention Payton was a far better defensive player to Billups. I mean, with Payton we are talking about arguably the best defensive point guard of all time. 9x all defensive 1st team, 1x defensive POY, 1x league leader in steals. Billups meanwhile made 2x all defense 2nd team and that's it - no comparison, it's apples to oranges.

The choice becomes even more obvious when we look at:
All star selections - 9 to 5 in favor of Payton
All NBA 1st team selections - 2 to 0 in favor of Payton
All NBA 2nd team selections - 5 to 1 in favor of Payton
All NBA 3rd team selections - 2 apiece

Not saying awards are the be all, end all, but it's hard to at least not factor them in when there's such a glaring difference between 2 players.

How about durability? After all, you're only valuable to your team if you can actually play and be on the court. Payton had 12 seasons with 78+ games and 30+ MPG in the same season. Billups only had 5. This category favors Payton even more if we take the lockout season of 99 into account - there was only 50 games and Payton played in all 50 of them, averaging 40 MPG, compared to Billups who sat out 5 games that season and also played less minutes (33 MPG).
Keep in mind, they both played exactly 17 seasons.

Lastly, Billups was never really THE guy on any team. Those Pistons teams were truly an ensemble. They won with defense and Ben Wallace was obviously their best defender. Wallace was the guy they built that team around - not Billups. Wallace got to Detroit 2 years before Billups. The Pistons added pieces around Wallace who they fit fit that blue collar, tough, physical, defensive mold. Billups was a key piece but was really more of strong role player who had the luxury of moving the ball around, getting other guys involved and picking his spots here and there when he wanted to shoot. I mean, there was times when you could even argue that Billups was their 5th best player (since him, Hamilton, Prince and the 2 Wallaces were at times seen as interchangeable and brought relatively equal value) and if there was 1 guy. who was the most valuable to those Pistons teams, gun to your head most people are probably picking Ben Wallace. And Hamilton was often times their best scorer. Payton meanwhile carried the Sonics. He was THE guys. Yeah, maybe at time Kemp was their best player, but when you factor in not just scoring, but playmaking and defense, Payton was THE guy leading those Sonics teams, he had to be the one running the offense and carrying the load as a dual threat scoring/playmaking.

Payton was THE guy leading the Sonics, which was arguably the best team of the 90s other than the Bulls, year in and year out. Over a six-year span, the Sonics won 357 games and finished with the best record in the West four times, reaching the conference finals twice and the NBA Finals once.

I'm sorry but no, Payton was not a better scorer. Less versatility, and a lot less efficiency. I'll take Billups slight less volume with much more efficiency and ability to take shots down the stretch and make plays due to his offensive versatility.

For the Sonics being the 2nd best team in the 90s... I disagree. But Billups had a stetch from 03 to 09 making the conference finals. He made 2 finals, won once and was the FMVP if you wanna talk about awards.

Payton not the better scorer? Did you miss the part of my post where I said he averaged 20+ PPG 8 times compared to 0 times for Billups?

Any edge in efficiency for Billups can easily be chalked up to the points I already made in my previous post ( i bolded them above here for you)

Less offensive versatility? What do you even mean by that? Care to elaborate? Do you just mean that Billups was a better outside shooter so you think that means he was more versatile offensively? That's only because Billups played in a more 3 point friendly era when 3 point shooting was emphasized more. Are you saying it because Billups was good at posting up smaller guards? Guess what, so was Payton!

If we're talking about offensive versatility, how about the fact that Detroit had no transition game. They were a boring, walk the ball up the court, slow pace, half court team. So Billups was only effective offensively in the half court, compared to Payton who was an explosive offensive weapon - both in the half court AND in transition.

Oh, and if we're talking about offensive versatility, how about the significant gap in each player's ability to get into the lane and penetrate. Billups was simply a half court player who would pass the ball around the perimeter, stand outside the 3 point line for spot up 3s and occasionally post up on smaller guards. Could he break his man down off the dribble like Payton could? Could he attack the rim, penetrate and either finish it himself or dish it to a teammate? Payton was hands down better in this regard.

Billups went to the conference finals with the Pistons from 03-08 but:
a) That was a weak era for the east, with usually only 1 or 2 legit contenders in the whole conference - the east was far worse than the west was at the time and it was far worse than the West was in the 90s when Payton was battling it out vs the Suns, Blazers, Lakers, Jazz, Spurs, Rockets, 91 Warriors and 94 Nuggets
b) Billups was really more of a cog in the wheel on those Pistons teams. Most people would probably say Ben Wallace was their best player, Hamilton was often times their best scorer. He didn't have to carry the team nearly to the extent that the Sonics relied upon Payton.

And I see that you have nothing to say about Payton's sizable edge in defense or durability. Not to mention Payton was a better rebounder, despite the fact that Billups played in era with more emphasis on 3 point shooting and more 3 pointers = more long rebounds = more rebounding chances for a PG.

Oh and you point out 1 award Billups won (Finals MVP in 04) as if that's supposed to somehow outweigh the massive advantage in awards I outline din my post (in bold above)..

Lastly, this article touches on why Billups is overrated:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/157992-chauncey-billups-overrated-or-underrated

[trex_8063]

Thru post #42:

Chauncey Billups - 3 (Cavsfansince84, Joao Saraiva, penbeast0)
Paul Pierce - 2 (Odinn21, sansterre)
Kevin McHale - 1 (Hal14)
Pau Gasol - 1 (trex_8063)
Manu Ginobili - 1 (Dutchball97)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)


Skimpy turnout, but we'll have to go with it. 9 votes requires just 5 for a majority, so we eliminate those bottom four. That transfers 1 to Pierce, 2 to Billups, and ghosts one....

Billups - 5
Pierce - 3
(ghosted) - 1

So Billups takes this spot. I'll get the next up shortly.....

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[LA Bird]

Do you have stats on the team pace correlating positively with team efficiency? I believe you but I'd like to see them.

I also would like to see correlation study details, if you have them.

I will make a thread in a few days with the full results. I ran the analysis 3 years ago but I can't find the full dataset or code at the moment on my old laptop so I'll redo it to confirm.

Edit: I've been away but I'll make a follow up post on this soon.

[penbeast0]

Thank you, I learn a lot here.

[Dutchball97]

You're wrong when you said Billups went to the conference finals from 03 to 09. The Pistons got swept in the 1st round in 09.

Billups was traded to the Nuggets at the start of the 08/09 season. The year before they got swept in the first round but Billups immediately became their best player (yes, better than Melo) and they took the Lakers to 6 games in the WCF.

[Hal14]

You're wrong when you said Billups went to the conference finals from 03 to 09. The Pistons got swept in the 1st round in 09.

Billups was traded to the Nuggets at the start of the 08/09 season. The year before they got swept in the first round but Billups immediately became their best player (yes, better than Melo) and they took the Lakers to 6 games in the WCF.

Ok, I stand corrected. But that one small detail doesn't sway my opinion - Payton is better.