Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[ImSlower]

Shoot, sorry Paki I messed that up. Thank you for your great, level-headed analysis! All four of our young pieces have their fans and detractors on this forum, it's refreshing to see data driven analysis combined with sensible eye-test conversation.

[PaKii94]

I really like the fact that Lauri has been driving to the hoop more, but I feel like he just puts his head down and decides that he's going to shoot no matter what the defense is doing. If he learned to use those opportunities to find open teammates, I really think it would add another dimension to his game. Does he have the ability to grow his vision and passing? I don't know.

I feel like that would be the kind of player that you can build around, or who could at least be a very important piece of your team.

watch his drives last game. He has started to make the right reads.

Thanks, I will. That was the only game I haven't seen this season. Haha.

Yeah don't get thrown off by him only taking 3s. Here is a good example of the trickle down effect. He pulls 3 guys to him:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[PaKii94]

Just as a general note, people often look backwards to find teams and players that had success and then see how a current player compares.

Lauri really doesn't fit many molds but I don't think that should be held against him. Personally, if the current group is going to do well I think its going to have to be a medley type team where the players complement each other well. Lauri isn't a foundational piece but I think he can be an important part of a good team (if he keeps playing like he has in these 7 games).

Everyone has to keep working on stuff though. Lauri's assignments are:
- Keep driving
- Improve off ball defense

Those are far and away the biggest things Lauri can do. I would love a post game and better passing but him being a playmaker is such a huge ask that its kind of unrealistic. I don't think its entirely necessary either but I do think the Bulls need at least one big that can create shots for others.

That's all i'm asking for also. I don't think he'll ever be a good post up player. I don't think he will ever be a strong positive on defense. I don't think he will be a top level shot creator. But he doesn't need to be any of that to still be really good.

[dougthonus]

At the end of the day, all but the most elite handful of bigs rely on others to set them up. While Lauri isn't creating his own 3s, we should be very pleased that he compares favorably to elite big in terms of creating his own 2s.

The comparison completely falls apart when you look at volume. It's like if a guy took two shots a game, one assisted and one not and you said, see he's basically Anthony Davis, he creates half his looks.

[PaKii94]

At the end of the day, all but the most elite handful of bigs rely on others to set them up. While Lauri isn't creating his own 3s, we should be very pleased that he compares favorably to elite big in terms of creating his own 2s.

The comparison completely falls apart when you look at volume. It's like if a guy took two shots a game, one assisted and one not and you said, see he's basically Anthony Davis, he creates half his looks.

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

[FranchisePlayer]

Someone just used AD, Joker and Ebmid and KATs assisted three percentage to group them with Lauri as a player? That's what we call the Lauri Defense Force and why it's made fun of here.

If Lauri had ADs skill set I wouldn't care if he never hit another three in his career.

You were complaining about him not creating 3s, so I compared him to some of the most elite bigs in the league to prove it's a pretty unreasonable expectation since, hey, not even the elite guys really do it all that much. I also compared him to Porzingas and Bertans, but let's just ignore that I guess.

Who SHOULD I compare him to then, oh wise one? I just think it's pretty goddamn ridiculous to expect any 7 footer, with the exception of KD, to create their own shots from 3 on anything even resembling a regular basis. And guess what? The stats back me up on that.

Sent from my SM-S115DL using RealGM mobile app

Don't worry, you made a gd good case, GoBlue! It always goes like this in here: someone present FACTS that support a premise of Markkanen being good at something. Those facts make someone, who presents some negative innuendos of his abilities, look foolish.

So to save face, they belittle those stats and arguments, they change the subject, they do whatever it takes to NOT admit they're wrong. I even had a mod on my case in the low quality "Lauri comeback thread" talking about snowmen and other imaginary creatures or something like that when he run out of arguments.

The poster you just quoted said in the Dallas GT after about 4 minutes Lauri sucks. So you think you can start a constructive discussion with anyone with such a low threshold?

I've decided to give up. I had a warning for saying the comment sucks which states Lauri sucks. Let the animosity flow, there's nothing you can do to stop it with a pencil and paper. Better just to share views between us Lauri fans so any irrational bias and negativity doesn't get involved.

Probably something to do with the last couple of seasons but man, this place is depressing these days. So many people trying to find a negative angle to everything. Some even strenuously trying to find stats that support the idea that this team isn't developing.

I think it is but even it weren't, why the heck someone feels the need to put some time of his/her to convince people otherwise?

[ThisGuyFawkes]

watch his drives last game. He has started to make the right reads.

Thanks, I will. That was the only game I haven't seen this season. Haha.

Yeah don't get thrown off by him only taking 3s. Here is a good example of the trickle down effect:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

That's beautiful. I'm actually surprised Lavine didn't take the open 3 at the top.

[dougthonus]

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

I wonder how we could make Lauri shoot more shots off the dribble that he creates?

Oh wait, Lauri could do that any time he wants to, and it isn't actually up to anyone other than Lauri to increase the volume of shots he creates.

In terms of Lauri always being efficient when he gets touches, this is literally the first year in his career, with a tiny sample size, where he has been more than league average efficiency ever, so no, this hasn't been universally true in the past.

Maybe it will be true in the future, maybe Lauri is finally healthy / will stay healthy / has good coaching / feels motivated / whatever, we'll see as time plays out. I've said lots of times that he's off to a great start this year, and he is. He's had good stretches in short bursts lots of time. Can he stay healthy? Can he stay productive? I hope so, but I need at least a half season and not 7 games to fully buy into it.

[PaKii94]

Shoot, sorry Paki I messed that up. Thank you for your great, level-headed analysis! All four of our young pieces have their fans and detractors on this forum, it's refreshing to see data driven analysis combined with sensible eye-test conversation.

Thanks. I enjoy being able to use work skills with something I love (the bulls) but it gets tiring talking to the same brick wall of biases.

[PaKii94]

Someone just used AD, Joker and Ebmid and KATs assisted three percentage to group them with Lauri as a player? That's what we call the Lauri Defense Force and why it's made fun of here.

If Lauri had ADs skill set I wouldn't care if he never hit another three in his career.

You were complaining about him not creating 3s, so I compared him to some of the most elite bigs in the league to prove it's a pretty unreasonable expectation since, hey, not even the elite guys really do it all that much. I also compared him to Porzingas and Bertans, but let's just ignore that I guess.

Who SHOULD I compare him to then, oh wise one? I just think it's pretty goddamn ridiculous to expect any 7 footer, with the exception of KD, to create their own shots from 3 on anything even resembling a regular basis. And guess what? The stats back me up on that.

Sent from my SM-S115DL using RealGM mobile app

Don't worry, you made a gd good case, GoBlue! It always goes like this in here: someone present FACTS that support a premise of Markkanen being good at something. Those facts make someone, who presents some negative innuendos of his abilities, look foolish.

So to save face, they belittle those stats and arguments, they change the subject, they do whatever it takes to NOT admit they're wrong. I even had a mod on my case in the low quality "Lauri comeback thread" talking about snowmen and other imaginary creatures or something like that when he run out of arguments.

The poster you just quoted said in the Dallas GT after about 4 minutes Lauri sucks. So you think you can start a constructive discussion with anyone with such a low threshold?

I've decided to give up. I had a warning for saying the comment sucks which states Lauri sucks. Let the animosity flow, there's nothing you can do to stop it with a pencil and paper. Better just to share views between us Lauri fans so any irrational bias and negativity doesn't get involved.

Probably something to do with the last couple of seasons but man, this place is depressing these days. So many people trying to find a negative angle to everything. Some even strenuously trying to find stats that support the idea that this team isn't developing.

I think it is but even it weren't, why the heck someone feels the need to put some time of his/her to convince people otherwise?

It really is tiring

[PaKii94]

Thanks, I will. That was the only game I haven't seen this season. Haha.

Yeah don't get thrown off by him only taking 3s. Here is a good example of the trickle down effect:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

That's beautiful. I'm actually surprised Lavine didn't take the open 3 at the top.

Exactly. Lavine would have last year. He's come a long way this year.

[coldfish]

At the end of the day, all but the most elite handful of bigs rely on others to set them up. While Lauri isn't creating his own 3s, we should be very pleased that he compares favorably to elite big in terms of creating his own 2s.

The comparison completely falls apart when you look at volume. It's like if a guy took two shots a game, one assisted and one not and you said, see he's basically Anthony Davis, he creates half his looks.

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

This is where I disagree with you. AD is the best big man in the game right now and can create his own shot. He has a usage of 25.6%. Jokic is right there with him and is not just a scorer but effectively the team's PG. He is at 28.2%.

There are a few higher usage big men but they are team focal points and offensive creators, like Embiid and Giannis.

Lauri is at 23.2%. His skill set simply doesn't justify that much higher of usage. If he wants the ball more, he is going to have to change his game to be much more of a passer so other people can play off him.

Right now, the team's focal point on offense is Lavine and he is doing well with it. Lauri is getting what he gets off of other people. If the Bulls turn Lauri into their focal point, defenses would shift a lot and likely make Lauri look pretty bad. I just don't see any justification for higher usage.

Coby's usage should go down, I will say that. Lauri would benefit from that marginally.

[PaKii94]

I wonder how we could make Lauri shoot more shoots off the dribble that he creates?

Oh wait, Lauri could do that any time he wants to but chooses not to.

ChOoSEs NoT To!!! C'mon man. He needs the ball for that. We have gone ad nauseum he is a big that needs to be fed in his spots. How many missed opportunities are there when the guards turn over the ball 10x a game. How many missed opportunities when Coby decides to chuck up a early in the shot clock mid range jumper? Or the fact that the only read Coby can make is a simple dump off pass to the big instead of finding the cutters?

I've been advocating for a true playmaker on this team for 3(!!) years now! Last year the problem was the heavily guard reliant stagnant offense (and partially lavine's mental). It has finally started to click for lavine this year (he still has lapses) but now we have to deal with Coby's ineptitude.

In terms of Lauri always being efficient when he gets touches, this is literally the first year in his career, with a tiny sample size, mostly against teams going small, where he has been more than league average efficiency ever, so no, this hasn't been universally true in the past.

Again with talking overall. You can't get out of this habit can you? Again. Healthy Lauri = efficient Lauri. Has been the case throughout his career. Then you look at the period where he has gotten usage, HE HAS PRODUCED. Can you give me ANY portion of Lauri's career where he has been highly utilized but also inefficient? I would bet you can't. Because he hasn't been.

Maybe it will be true in the future, maybe Lauri is finally healthy / will stay healthy / has good coaching / feels motivated / whatever, we'll see as time plays out. I hope he continues to play well, but if you are talking about creating your own looks, then you are responsible for doing so.

completely disagree. Don't know why you don't acknowledge the fact that bigs have to be fed their looks. You're expectations for him are expectations of a superstar wing.

[FranchisePlayer]

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

I wonder how we could make Lauri shoot more shoots off the dribble that he creates?

Oh wait, Lauri could do that any time he wants to but chooses not to.

It's the same with many people. Those people have a skill A which they think is good and they are comfortable using it. Then they have a skill B which is average and they feel if they use it can lead to champagne or disaster.

I'm a sort of an able amateur pianist. I could play Chopin decently but anything could happen while playing some piece. Now why would I do that when I can do Billy Joel's hits with ease and get praise for it? I believe Lauri feels similar; he feels pressured if he has to shoot off the dribble, not his best asset and the odds for making buckets that way are therefore against him. So he rather takes the percentage shot, he's more of a realist I guess.

Maybe not a sign of a player with loads of self belief and desire to be the best. But he's no Valentine either who doesn't seem to know where his ceiling is on the court.

I guess you could argue Lavine in his 7th season should know how to run the clock down and many wonder what's stopping him? He could do that. Yet, in every game he chooses not to. Plenty of good reasons behind that continuous flawed decision too, I suspect.

[madvillian]

He was one of the worst PFs in the league last year by RAPM, if we want to insert some sanity into this thread (Doug is trying).

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2020/position/6

[PaKii94]

The comparison completely falls apart when you look at volume. It's like if a guy took two shots a game, one assisted and one not and you said, see he's basically Anthony Davis, he creates half his looks.

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

This is where I disagree with you. AD is the best big man in the game right now and can create his own shot. He has a usage of 25.6%. Jokic is right there with him and is not just a scorer but effectively the team's PG. He is at 28.2%.

There are a few higher usage big men but they are team focal points and offensive creators, like Embiid and Giannis.

Lauri is at 23.2%. His skill set simply doesn't justify that much higher of usage. If he wants the ball more, he is going to have to change his game to be much more of a passer so other people can play off him.

Right now, the team's focal point on offense is Lavine and he is doing well with it. Lauri is getting what he gets off of other people. If the Bulls turn Lauri into their focal point, defenses would shift a lot and likely make Lauri look pretty bad. I just don't see any justification for higher usage.

Coby's usage should go down, I will say that. Lauri would benefit from that marginally.

Chicken or the egg. If he's only getting 6 attempts at the rim, how many would you want him to use to "play make" and get others involved? He did exactly that last game and everyone bashed him for it. "He only took 3s, he's not aggressive enough!!". His skillset easily calls for more usage. It's the 3 most valuable parts of the game: 3s, FTs, paint. You give him more touches and the looks will start to balance out.

And anyway, y'all still don't acknowledge the discrepancy in usage when he's playing with the starting lineup and when he's playing with the bench. If Lauri wasn't capable of increased usage, how does he manage to do it with the bench (Maybe because again...he's the FOCAL point there???) and not with the starting lineup?

Lavine is FINALLY doing well as a focal point. I am fine with his performance. I think the Coby effect is getting very underlooked with our fanbase because we are still captivated by "young player who can shoot". All the advanced stats paint a grim picture on his effect. He would be a addition by subtraction with his play right now. If Coby was playing SG, the effect gets reduced but at PG you need to be able to run the team. and he's doing that very poorly right now.

[PaKii94]

He was one of the worst PFs in the league last year by RAPM, if we want to insert some sanity into this thread (Doug is trying).

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2020/position/6

Wow bulls should hire you. You're such a great analyst!!!

With that same great overall stat you posted, Lavine has been rated poorly for years. Why haven't we dumped him yet??

[coldfish]

That's why you need to bump up the f**king volume and see what happens. You don't dismiss it.That's a flawed way to look at it. The comparison "doesn't fall apart". Some players continue to be efficient when they get volume (I strongly believe Lauri is one of them. He's produced the vast majority of the time when he gets it). Others the efficiency plummets when they get more volume. He hasn't shown that yet. Again, the efficiency drop usually coincides with injury with him. NOT increased usage.

nuances nuances nuances.

This is where I disagree with you. AD is the best big man in the game right now and can create his own shot. He has a usage of 25.6%. Jokic is right there with him and is not just a scorer but effectively the team's PG. He is at 28.2%.

There are a few higher usage big men but they are team focal points and offensive creators, like Embiid and Giannis.

Lauri is at 23.2%. His skill set simply doesn't justify that much higher of usage. If he wants the ball more, he is going to have to change his game to be much more of a passer so other people can play off him.

Right now, the team's focal point on offense is Lavine and he is doing well with it. Lauri is getting what he gets off of other people. If the Bulls turn Lauri into their focal point, defenses would shift a lot and likely make Lauri look pretty bad. I just don't see any justification for higher usage.

Coby's usage should go down, I will say that. Lauri would benefit from that marginally.

Chicken or the egg. If he's only getting 6 attempts at the rim, how many would you want him to use to "play make" and get others involved? He did exactly that last game and everyone bashed him for it. "He only took 3s, he's not aggressive enough!!". His skillset easily calls for more usage. It's the 3 most valuable parts of the game: 3s, FTs, paint. You give him more touches and the looks will start to balance out.

And anyway, y'all still don't acknowledge the discrepancy in usage when he's playing with the starting lineup and when he's playing with the bench. If Lauri wasn't capable of increased usage, how does he manage to do it with the bench (Maybe because again...he's the FOCAL point there???) and not with the starting lineup?

Lavine is FINALLY doing well as a focal point. I am fine with his performance. I think the Coby effect is getting very underlooked with our fanbase because we are still captivated by "young player who can shoot". All the advanced stats paint a grim picture on his effect. He would be a addition by subtraction with his play right now. If Coby was playing SG, the effect gets reduced but at PG you need to be able to run the team. and he's doing that very poorly right now.

I just don't see anyway that an AD like usage rate can be demanded for Lauri. When I discuss this with the Lauri Defense Force (thanks madvillian!), the discussion often turns into a bunch of cherry picked anecdotes and complaints about everyone in the organization. Its just not realistic when you look at the entire forest.

[sco]

So I'm getting:

Some folks think Lauri is better than his historical stats would suggest because he is doing more this year and his historical stats are masking his misuse and playing injured.

Other folks are saying. He's not great and there aren't any great players who play the way Lauri does. Mainly, he can't create for himself the way that great players do.


If we debating whether Lauri is or can be great (which to mean would be a top 8 PF or top quartile starter), I side on the "no" side. Mainly because I think he is a average to below average defender, coupled with my concern about his durability.

If we are debating whether to trade him, I am more open-minded. If he can continue this level of play and stay healthy up to the deadline, that would a least put my durability fears to rest a bit and support a new level of play. It would be helpful for the FO to have had conversations with his agent as to what $ he'd want if the stayed as well, because I wouldn't want to be surprised there. Obviously, the market is the market, but he's a RFA, which might deter teams from offering crazy $.

[PaKii94]

This is where I disagree with you. AD is the best big man in the game right now and can create his own shot. He has a usage of 25.6%. Jokic is right there with him and is not just a scorer but effectively the team's PG. He is at 28.2%.

There are a few higher usage big men but they are team focal points and offensive creators, like Embiid and Giannis.

Lauri is at 23.2%. His skill set simply doesn't justify that much higher of usage. If he wants the ball more, he is going to have to change his game to be much more of a passer so other people can play off him.

Right now, the team's focal point on offense is Lavine and he is doing well with it. Lauri is getting what he gets off of other people. If the Bulls turn Lauri into their focal point, defenses would shift a lot and likely make Lauri look pretty bad. I just don't see any justification for higher usage.

Coby's usage should go down, I will say that. Lauri would benefit from that marginally.

Chicken or the egg. If he's only getting 6 attempts at the rim, how many would you want him to use to "play make" and get others involved? He did exactly that last game and everyone bashed him for it. "He only took 3s, he's not aggressive enough!!". His skillset easily calls for more usage. It's the 3 most valuable parts of the game: 3s, FTs, paint. You give him more touches and the looks will start to balance out.

And anyway, y'all still don't acknowledge the discrepancy in usage when he's playing with the starting lineup and when he's playing with the bench. If Lauri wasn't capable of increased usage, how does he manage to do it with the bench (Maybe because again...he's the FOCAL point there???) and not with the starting lineup?

Lavine is FINALLY doing well as a focal point. I am fine with his performance. I think the Coby effect is getting very underlooked with our fanbase because we are still captivated by "young player who can shoot". All the advanced stats paint a grim picture on his effect. He would be a addition by subtraction with his play right now. If Coby was playing SG, the effect gets reduced but at PG you need to be able to run the team. and he's doing that very poorly right now.

I just don't see anyway that an AD like usage rate can be demanded for Lauri. When I discuss this with the Lauri Defense Force (thanks madvillian!), the discussion often turns into a bunch of cherry picked anecdotes and complaints about everyone in the organization. Its just not realistic when you look at the entire forest.

Sure, by comparing the assisted rates, it's not to say he can reach AD level of usage/dominance. It's more like the creation RATE is very similar. If he was creating more unassisted looks, he would be BETTER than star wings/bigs in creation rates. So once you maximize the rate, you need to start looking at the volume. Which for Lauri is anemic.

Bump it up and see what happens. That's where opinion comes in. I think Lauri can excel with more volume. Others think that since Lauri is more of a roleplayer, increased volume should automatically lead to decreased efficiency. The limited data we have on Lauri with higher usage shows the former. FROM THE DATA, he usually produces with more usage. But saying that doesn't mean I expect him to reach the AD milestones (which would be amazing if possible). The reason it goes to cherry picked anecdotes it's because we still haven't seen Lauri with consistent high usage besides FebruLauri (which again he produced). KP when he got into the league was a defacto #1 on the NYKs. He got 28%+ USG and was pretty inefficient with it. However, since he got the benefit of the volume, he's a potential star.


Complains about everyone in the organization happen because again Lauri really hasn't gotten his fair share of looks. Last year it was the system and Lavine. We fix that and then put in another problem in place with Coby. "WE gotta develop COBY!!!" while killing the rest of the team.


----

I agree that Lauri isn't a self creator. So how do you resolve that? You make the focus him. Start the offense by getting him looks and CONTINUE to do so. Coby and Lavine will get theirs within the game. Lavine has started to realize that. Coby hasn't. We did that during FebruLauri. Replace WCJ at the top of the key and in PnRs with Lauri and see what happens.