Why can't we ever do this?

[payitforward]

Nate points something out here, then asks a key question. IMO, it deserves its own thread. It's one of the biggest issues on our agenda.

...It drives me crazy watching the same organizations draft unheralded guys and develop them into quality NBA players. Teams like Toronto, Miami and San Antonio constantly produce good players, watch them depart in free agency, but just find someone else to replace them.

Kawhi leaves? No problem, Kyle Anderson has been developing nicely to replace him. Drafted him 30th.
Kyle leaves? No problem. Here comes Keldon Johnson, drafted 29th.

Why can't we ever do this?

[payitforward]

Great question -- & I feel your tone as well! It's amazing what a capacity for frustration one must develop as a Wizards fan!

Start with the draft.

Compare the following two sets of per-40-minute numbers. Same year, same school, both players who entered the draft after a single college season. Both these guys are 2-3s

1.
Season School G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
20xx-xx ? 37 36 1137 6.1 13.1 .461 4.5 9.0 .498 1.6 4.2 .381 3.8 5.5 .703 7.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 2.1 2.9 17.5

2.
Season School G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
20xx-xx ? 37 37 1207 6.2 13.4 .462 4.2 7.8 .538 2.0 5.6 .355 2.9 3.1 .935 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.4 2.0 1.6 17.2

(Sorry -- don't know how to line them up better. Would be happy to be instructed....)

Do one guy's numbers look better than the other? Would you be led by anything about them to pick player #1 over #2 or vice versa? To keep in mind: same age, same school, same competition, etc.

I'd say these two players are extremely similar. Overall, they grade out about the same. These are people not machines, so obviously they're not identical, but I'd be hard pressed to find two players more similar to one another.

Who do you think took #1 vs. who picked #2? & where in the draft do you think they were or (off their Freshman numbers) should have been picked?

I remember liking them about equally -- but with a slight preference for one of them over the other. How about you?

[trast66]

There are probably numerous things those teams do better than us, and most likely things they are doing that we don’t.

But to me the most obvious is the players selected in the first round. The way NBA played now you either have to have elite athleticism or shooting. NBA level elite. Troy, Rui, Deni all have questions in those areas they have not answered. That was known when drafted. They can play in the league, but personally don’t think any of them have potential to play crunch time in the playoffs.

The last three first round picks for the Heat: Bam, Herro, Precious: Athleticism, shooting, athleticism at NBA elite level. Known before the draft.

Also success breeds success. We just never have been able to sustain even though trade draft picks for vets like EG did. Gil and John suffering catastrophic injuries didn’t help.

[NatP4]

Just a couple things:

1. Kyle Andersen is not Kawhi Leonard

2. Ernie Grunfeld

3. Coaching. This would not be a subject of discussion if Scott Brooks actually played guys like Garrison Mathews, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown Jr, maybe even Winston or Childs.

[AFM]

These are sophisticated programs with a long history of excellent scouting and development, plus top tier GM's careful not to hamstring their team with unreasonable contracts. The Wizards on the other hand have never proven to be better at scouting than the last holdouts on a dwindling RealGM subforum.

[wall_glizzy]

Great question -- & I feel your tone as well! It's amazing what a capacity for frustration one must develop as a Wizards fan!

Start with the draft.

Compare the following two sets of per-40-minute numbers. Same year, same school, both players who entered the draft after a single college season. Both these guys are 2-3s

1.
Season School G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
20xx-xx ? 37 36 1137 6.1 13.1 .461 4.5 9.0 .498 1.6 4.2 .381 3.8 5.5 .703 7.6 2.1 1.0 0.2 2.1 2.9 17.5

2.
Season School G GS MP FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
20xx-xx ? 37 37 1207 6.2 13.4 .462 4.2 7.8 .538 2.0 5.6 .355 2.9 3.1 .935 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.4 2.0 1.6 17.2

(Sorry -- don't know how to line them up better. Would be happy to be instructed....)

Do one guy's numbers look better than the other? Would you be led by anything about them to pick player #1 over #2 or vice versa? To keep in mind: same age, same school, same competition, etc.

I'd say these two players are extremely similar. Overall, they grade out about the same. These are people not machines, so obviously they're not identical, but I'd be hard pressed to find two players more similar to one another.

Who do you think took #1 vs. who picked #2? & where in the draft do you think they were or (off their Freshman numbers) should have been picked?

I remember liking them about equally -- but with a slight preference for one of them over the other. How about you?

It should be noted, with this example (I was pretty sure I knew who it was and looked it up to confirm), that the guy picked later slid a good bit from his pre-draft projections; if I recall correctly, they were mocked pretty similarly, with the advantage of the higher pick being primarily the ability to create shots off the dribble, rather than being reliant on others to create for him (which, imo, holds up so far).

I think this actually points to the real key to the Spurs strategy - they're opportunistic. Given some twenty or more years of picking largely in the 20-30 range, they've maximized their picks by taking a somewhat contrarian view. For the 00s, this was massive investment in European scouting; more recently, I'm almost positive they've determined that there's some kind of competitive advantage in scouting the PAC-12 (you may laugh, but I've heard analysts claim that the relative lack of premier programs in the Western half of the US - and the much greater distance between individual schools - leaves the region under-scouted. I think John Hollinger calls the players that fall accordingly "bad geography guys"). And, of course, they pounce whenever a tier-n prospect falls into tier n + 1. It's a great model for teams that work themselves into a position of consistent success; the Nuggets have quite clearly taken a leaf out of their book in the last couple years.

[nate33]

1. Kyle Andersen is not Kawhi Leonard

True. But San Antonio managed to win 47 games when Kawhi bailed on them in 2017/18 (playing just 210 total minutes that season) and then won 48 games the next season, in a brutal Western Conference.

The Wizards have won 47 games once in the past 42 years.

[likwitdesi]

Culture plays a big role. Miami and SAS run their programs with discipline and generally have high character people on their teams. For this team, character has mattered only recently and was a complete afterthought in the Grunfeld era with clowns like Blache, McGee and Young running the show & stars like Gil and Wall being enabled

[payitforward]

Great question -- & I feel your tone as well! It's amazing what a capacity for frustration one must develop as a Wizards fan!

Start with the draft. ...Compare the following two sets of per-40-minute numbers. ....I remember liking them about equally -- but with a slight preference for one of them over the other. How about you?

It should be noted, with this example (I was pretty sure I knew who it was and looked it up to confirm), that the guy picked later slid a good bit from his pre-draft projections; if I recall correctly, they were mocked pretty similarly, with the advantage of the higher pick being primarily the ability to create shots off the dribble, rather than being reliant on others to create for him (which, imo, holds up so far)....

(Knowing you, I'm not at all surprised you figured out which two guys I was describing. I'm sure a few others have as well.)

One guy was picked a bit earlier than mocked, the other guy a bit later. I.e. rather than it being so much of a matter of the latter having "slid a good bit."

I wouldn't describe either of them as really great at creating their own shot; we can give the earlier pick the edge on that, however. &, because of the needs of the teams they went to, the earlier guy played a lot as a rookie, while the later guy spent a lot of his first year in the G League.

This year, however, Mr. Late is playing almost 50% more minutes than Mr. Early -- & he's playing a ton better than him as well.

Their scoring efficiency is virtually identical -- though Mr. Early gets the edge b/c he scores just under 2 more points per 40 minutes. In both cases, however, they are scoring at about an average level of efficiency. Meh, in other words.

For the rest, Mr. Late has been so much better than Mr. Early that there is really no contest, & overall Mr. Late is having a terrific season while Mr. Early is well below average for a guy at his position.

Yet, Mr. Early is lauded -- here, but not just here -- while Mr. Late is largely ignored (in part, of course, that's b/c he played so little as a rookie). But, I'd be willing to put a little money on the line that Mr. Late will wind up having the better career of the two.

[payitforward]

Just a couple things:

1. Kyle Andersen is not Kawhi Leonard...

You miss the point -- do you really think the SA FO knew that Kawhi was going to be "Kawhi" when they grabbed him? Certainly not.... As to Kyle Anderson, he was an exceptional bargain at #28 or 29 (don't recall which) where he was picked. He was a much better player than many taken above him. That is how you get an advantage in this league.

...2. Ernie Grunfeld

3. Coaching. This would not be a subject of discussion if Scott Brooks actually played guys like Garrison Mathews, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown Jr, maybe even Winston or Childs.

Ernie's gone; Tommy's here, so the main point is that recently we have made better use of the draft & of other ways to get young players. That's a good thing.

[payitforward]

...(I was pretty sure I knew who it was and looked it up to confirm)....

...Mr. Early is lauded -- here, but not just here -- while Mr. Late is largely ignored (in part, of course, that's b/c he played so little as a rookie). But, I'd be willing to put a little money on the line that Mr. Late will wind up having the better career of the two.

Hey wall_glizzy --

Spoiler:

How about you be the one to reveal the identities of Mr. Early & Mr. Late?

[Kanyewest]

These are sophisticated programs with a long history of excellent scouting and development, plus top tier GM's careful not to hamstring their team with unreasonable contracts. The Wizards on the other hand have never proven to be better at scouting than the last holdouts on a dwindling RealGM subforum.

The leading members of this RealGM subforum would be in the running for executive of the year. It would be like KD signing with the Warriors all over again.

[wall_glizzy]

...(I was pretty sure I knew who it was and looked it up to confirm)....

...Mr. Early is lauded -- here, but not just here -- while Mr. Late is largely ignored (in part, of course, that's b/c he played so little as a rookie). But, I'd be willing to put a little money on the line that Mr. Late will wind up having the better career of the two.

Hey wall_glizzy -- How about you be the one to reveal the identities of Mr. Early & Mr. Late?

Why, it's... Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke!

Just kidding, it's Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson, respectively.

I'm reminded, watching my guy Brogdon play the Raptors, of another great contrarian player development strategy: Toronto spent the mid-2010s investing heavily in the G League team as a tool for developing not only players, but staff. I believe team Raptors 905 was launched in 2015, and its been a breeding ground ever since for quality Raptors and assistant coaches that have gotten jobs around the league - I believe an announcer just said that the Raptors have seven undrafted players on their roster. And of course, both the head coaches in this game - Nick Nurse and Nate Bjorkgren - were first plucked out of Iowa's G League team, by the Raptors and Suns respectively.

[payitforward]

...(I was pretty sure I knew who it was and looked it up to confirm)....

...Mr. Early is lauded -- here, but not just here -- while Mr. Late is largely ignored (in part, of course, that's b/c he played so little as a rookie). But, I'd be willing to put a little money on the line that Mr. Late will wind up having the better career of the two.

Hey wall_glizzy -- How about you be the one to reveal the identities of Mr. Early & Mr. Late?

Why, it's... Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke!

Just kidding, it's Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson, respectively.

I'm reminded, watching my guy Brogdon play the Raptors, of another great contrarian player development strategy: Toronto spent the mid-2010s investing heavily in the G League team as a tool for developing not only players, but staff. I believe team Raptors 905 was launched in 2015, and its been a breeding ground ever since for quality Raptors and assistant coaches that have gotten jobs around the league - I believe an announcer just said that the Raptors have seven undrafted players on their roster. And of course, both the head coaches in this game - Nick Nurse and Nate Bjorkgren - were first plucked out of Iowa's G League team, by the Raptors and Suns respectively.

Yep! Their Freshman (& only) season at Kentucky.

But, the blocks of numbers are in the opposite order, first Johnson then Herro. Not that there's really anything much different between them -- except that Johnson was a better 3-point shooter, & Herro had the higher 2pt. %.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Why can’t we ever stop throwing good money after bad.

I’ve been a die hard since 1973. But this Wall for Westbrook trade just might end it for me.

[doclinkin]

Yeah. John at least was a homegrown ballhog with ties to the community and a potential redemption story. Upside. It's maddening to trade again for another past their prime star.Losing an asset. And overpaying to do so. Even when he was in the MVP conversation I hated the way Russ played. This is just miserable since it works against the growth of the team.

[Silvie Lysandra]

These are sophisticated programs with a long history of excellent scouting and development, plus top tier GM's careful not to hamstring their team with unreasonable contracts. The Wizards on the other hand have never proven to be better at scouting than the last holdouts on a dwindling RealGM subforum.

The leading members of this RealGM subforum would be in the running for executive of the year. It would be like KD signing with the Warriors all over again.

This is more an indictment of the NBA though. A lot of these guys are terrible at their jobs.

[Dat2U]

Nate points something out here, then asks a key question. IMO, it deserves its own thread. It's one of the biggest issues on our agenda.

...It drives me crazy watching the same organizations draft unheralded guys and develop them into quality NBA players. Teams like Toronto, Miami and San Antonio constantly produce good players, watch them depart in free agency, but just find someone else to replace them.

Kawhi leaves? No problem, Kyle Anderson has been developing nicely to replace him. Drafted him 30th.
Kyle leaves? No problem. Here comes Keldon Johnson, drafted 29th.

Why can't we ever do this?

I believe the ringer talked about this but it was a great point. Organizations like the Spurs & Raps draft 3&D guys who can fit in quicker into a low usage role, contribute right away, and have them add ball skills as they develop. Wizards on the other hand tend to go for 'high upside' types who are more ball dominant coming out and have trouble adapting to off the ball roles and struggle to contribute early if at all.

Avdija has adjusted pretty well but for Hachimura & especially Troy Brown Jr, its been a real struggle.