CP3 vs Rubio

[itlnsunsfan]

My eye test has told me Chris Paul hasn't been any more effective this year than Ricky Rubio was for us last year. But eyes can deceive. What do the numbers say?


https://stathead.com/tiny/R031n

[Mulhollanddrive]

It's not necessarily Paul vs Rubio, than Paul vs himself.

We are -16.9 points worse with him on court compared to +11.4 better at OKC.

[bwgood77]

They showed last night that the team is better with either Booker or Paul on the court than without but the team is not better when both are on the court.

So for now, Paul is probably better to have without Booker, but to play with Booker, Rubio was better. There is a lot of context to that though. I thought Rubio might not work well with Booker because he controls the ball and when Booker went iso it would render Rubio useless and teams would double Booker. However, Rubio shot relatively well from 3 last season and made teams pay to an extent when open. However, teams would dare him to shoot, so all of his 3s were wide open ones.

CP3 has not knocked down 3s at a good rate, so it has hurt, but I would be surprised if he doesn't get better.

The problem is Paul is a lot more ball dominant....when it comes to dribbling around and surveying the floor, and it makes Booker wait and I don't think he's used to that as much, though Bledsoe was kind of like that (but of course we sucked).

Rubio made quicker decisions and we ran more. It may have also had to do with getting more baskets before the defense got set.

Rubio made everyone better.

Paul makes everyone better, except Booker.

So far.

A large part of Booker's success without Paul though also comes against bench units late in the first..Booker plays the whole first when it is rare starters on the other team are out there.

Paul probably goes against starters more based on substitution patterns...he comes back in early in the 2nd (and 4th) when a lot of other starters probably do while Booker sits after playing the entire 1st (and 3rd).

It will be interesting to see the team play without Booker.

I can pretty confidently say that minus Booker, we'd MUCH rather have Paul than Rubio...even if we get crushed tonight in a one game sample size on an OT b2b where we suddenly are down two key rotation players.

I think a lineup of CP3/Bridges/Cam/Jae/Ayton will work better than the same players with Rubio will, though I think it might be more fun to watch a lot of the time with Rubio because there would be little iso and it would likely be quick ball movement to open guy and shot...less dribbling.

[Keith_myath]

Paul can score in the 4th; Rubio cannot.

Paul would be more effective with a C who can set a fkn screen and then roll or pop. The lack of pop from DA is hurting the effectiveness. The passiveness mixed with lethargy from DA is even more of a killer.

Booker is not a winner so him not gelling with CP3 is not as bad as it may appear... unless your focus is on the stat sheet.

Paul has made Bridges more dangerous, Crowder a potential danger, Johnson more dangerous, and could make DA very dangerous if DA was willing to work for it. Booker is not dangerous because he doesn't work off the ball to get in good positions for a catch and shoot. Booker is more worried about his touches and dribbles.

[Calvin Klein]

I just think it's too soon to judge and too weird a season anyway. I'd give them more time. If we get to the playoffs, that's already a win. Then see how they gel in the playoffs. They should be able to figure it out.

[Bogyo]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

[sunsbg]

CP3 vs Rubio is somewhat of a wash. The bigger issue is the concerns for our All Star player to fit with other good players. Many questioned the fit with Rubio, now it's Paul. I'm often pointing out the chemistry with Ayton as well. In the meantime someone like Harden for example has no problem fitting in with two other All Stars and finding ways to contribute whether it's scoring or playmaking. Booker is clearly limited to a scorer right now, one who demands the ball to be in his hands. Needs to improve greatly as an off-ball player otherwise he's easily replaceable.

[bwgood77]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

[Frank Lee]

We could of had Rubio for the remainder of his career (5-6 yrs) at a reasonable rate ... instead we got Paul for his (2) along with his top three hosejob contract.

Rubio did not hurt us ....an ineffective Paul kills us

[suns12345]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Crowder at $10m vs Oubre at potentially $20m is a big difference for me though.

[bwgood77]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Crowder at $10m vs Oubre at potentially $20m is a big difference for me though.

Oubre was only set to make $14.375 million. Anyway, I'm just comparing perception of talent being a lot better. It's not like that Crowder contract allowed us to sign other contracts since he was a MLE signing over the cap.

If we are talking about future contracts, I probably would have looked to trade Oubre anyway.

I do think for this team, Crowder is a better fit and I think he's overall a better player personally, but I am not sure I'd be in the majority, and you could also argue on it depending on what you need.

[Bogyo]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Some of it is incremental, some of it is the new guys, some of it is tiny stuff adding up.

Incremental: Bridges is legit all-defense, and likely get votes in the MIP. Cam is much better than last year, he could get votes as 6th man of the year (yeah, he shouldn't be starting much). Having Ayton (no matter how bad he was in the first 10 games or so) is much better than not having Ayton at all - like much of the season last year with Ricky. Finding the best role for Saric (during the bubble) is also a lot better than him playing PF most of last year with Ricky. Same thing goes for having a legit substitute PG for all season - last year that wasn't the case. Frank is much better playing his (luckily) diminished role than he was doing in a larger role last year. So it is basically a bit of a domino effect with him. He is not good enough for sure to be a 7th-8th guy in your rotation, but good enough to be 10th.

Crowder is better overall for the team than Kelly would be. Might be the same position, but such a different player - and different in ways that complement everyone better than what Kelly would do. Galloway is better than anything we had in that role since Eddie House. Nader and Moore are not really contributing in a positive way as of now, but I'm pretty sure they are better than what we had in 11th-13th guys last year. I'm sure this has some kind of positive effect in practices, etc... So this is the small stuff adding up.

So all in all - in a lot of way's CP has a much better team to work with, hence we should be better than last year. We are better - despite CP not being any better overall than Rubio.

[Blonde]

I’ll take the hall of famer.

[bwgood77]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Some of it is incremental, some of it is the new guys, some of it is tiny stuff adding up.

Incremental: Bridges is legit all-defense, and likely get votes in the MIP. Cam is much better than last year, he could get votes as 6th man of the year (yeah, he shouldn't be starting much). Having Ayton (no matter how bad he was in the first 10 games or so) is much better than not having Ayton at all - like much of the season last year with Ricky. Finding the best role for Saric (during the bubble) is also a lot better than him playing PF most of last year with Ricky. Same thing goes for having a legit substitute PG for all season - last year that wasn't the case. Frank is much better playing his (luckily) diminished role than he was doing in a larger role last year. So it is basically a bit of a domino effect with him. He is not good enough for sure to be a 7th-8th guy in your rotation, but good enough to be 10th.

Crowder is better overall for the team than Kelly would be. Might be the same position, but such a different player - and different in ways that complement everyone better than what Kelly would do. Galloway is better than anything we had in that role since Eddie House. Nader and Moore are not really contributing in a positive way as of now, but I'm pretty sure they are better than what we had in 11th-13th guys last year. I'm sure this has some kind of positive effect in practices, etc... So this is the small stuff adding up.

So all in all - in a lot of way's CP has a much better team to work with, hence we should be better than last year. We are better - despite CP not being any better overall than Rubio.

I agree, though we haven't had Saric either. Last year he was maybe starting but that meant Bridges was a guy you had off the bench for most of the year, but admittedly he is a lot better, especially than he was earlier in the season.

That being said, we were not very good last year...we were 26-39 pre bubble...so not sure how good we would be with him, even with the slight upgrades in some other places.

[Frank Lee]

The difference of how good we are with Paul or Rubio is marginal on the court. But the difference in cap land/flexibility is huge.

I don’t see a $24million improvement

[Bogyo]

I’ll take the hall of famer.

Maybe we could bring in Stockton or Magic while we are at it. Both are legit better in ther HoF PG carreers than CP.

[RedIndian]

I think the good way to look at this is what/why CP was brought in for, and how Rubio did with us last year and how CP3 did last year. I kinda disregard Rubios current season for sure that is an anomaly that has to do with his coach/team/role than him.

So - Rickys stats last year and CPs stats this year are pretty identical. CP has a bit better FG% but Ricky had a lot better 3FG%. Rest is a was. We are not winning close games, and our record is not better this year (so far), while the team has been upgraded (brought in Crowder and way better bench). So I would say this has not been a good trade/switch for us as of now. If you factor in what other ways could have been taken the picture is even worse. (Trade Oubre for Gordon, pick Haliburton, keep our draft pick next year...)

Next year this will even look worse as CP3 is clearly downhill. His FG% and 3FG% will be lower than this year (and this year it's not good either), his scoring will be worse, and he will be less able to run even more than he is now.

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Some of it is incremental, some of it is the new guys, some of it is tiny stuff adding up.

Incremental: Bridges is legit all-defense, and likely get votes in the MIP. Cam is much better than last year, he could get votes as 6th man of the year (yeah, he shouldn't be starting much). Having Ayton (no matter how bad he was in the first 10 games or so) is much better than not having Ayton at all - like much of the season last year with Ricky. Finding the best role for Saric (during the bubble) is also a lot better than him playing PF most of last year with Ricky. Same thing goes for having a legit substitute PG for all season - last year that wasn't the case. Frank is much better playing his (luckily) diminished role than he was doing in a larger role last year. So it is basically a bit of a domino effect with him. He is not good enough for sure to be a 7th-8th guy in your rotation, but good enough to be 10th.

Crowder is better overall for the team than Kelly would be. Might be the same position, but such a different player - and different in ways that complement everyone better than what Kelly would do. Galloway is better than anything we had in that role since Eddie House. Nader and Moore are not really contributing in a positive way as of now, but I'm pretty sure they are better than what we had in 11th-13th guys last year. I'm sure this has some kind of positive effect in practices, etc... So this is the small stuff adding up.

So all in all - in a lot of way's CP has a much better team to work with, hence we should be better than last year. We are better - despite CP not being any better overall than Rubio.

While I agree with this somewhat, I think it's too soon to decide this. I will say this - CP3 brings far more intensity and seriousness to this roster than the affable and easy-going Rubio. So while you can argue that the development we're seeing from the likes of Mikal and Cam (and lately Ayton) is something that was anyway due, I do think that having someone as intense and committed to winning as CP3 is rubbing off on these guys. The proof of that will be seen by the end of the season. Ultimately, if we end up making the playoffs as a 4th or 5th seed, then the trade will be seen as a success.

Looking at this from a value perspective on a dollar-by-dollar basis isn't probably ideal. Purely from the stat sheet, Rubio's production at 17 million seems to be much better value than CP's similar production at 40+ million, but value was never the purpose of this trade. The purpose was to get to the playoffs, and hasten the development of our younger guys.

Also worth considering that CP's deal is short and doesn't do any long term cap damage. The issue that Jones really needs to grapple with is elevating the team from 1st or 2nd round playoff team to contender. I don't see a pathway to that yet, but again it's probably way too soon to be having that conversation.

[Bogyo]

Everyone keeps saying our team is WAY upgraded but I think a lot of people would say Oubre contributed a lot more than Crowder has overall and that Baynes was WAY better than any backup C we had....we had Saric last year too. The only other real difference is having Payne which is a big addition but I don't know if it is bigger than having Baynes instead of Damian Jones and Oubre as another scoring option/energy guy over Crowder. I'm sure many would argue Crowder is better than Oubre or compare stats this year but I doubt many would have traded Oubre for him last year.

Some of it is incremental, some of it is the new guys, some of it is tiny stuff adding up.

Incremental: Bridges is legit all-defense, and likely get votes in the MIP. Cam is much better than last year, he could get votes as 6th man of the year (yeah, he shouldn't be starting much). Having Ayton (no matter how bad he was in the first 10 games or so) is much better than not having Ayton at all - like much of the season last year with Ricky. Finding the best role for Saric (during the bubble) is also a lot better than him playing PF most of last year with Ricky. Same thing goes for having a legit substitute PG for all season - last year that wasn't the case. Frank is much better playing his (luckily) diminished role than he was doing in a larger role last year. So it is basically a bit of a domino effect with him. He is not good enough for sure to be a 7th-8th guy in your rotation, but good enough to be 10th.

Crowder is better overall for the team than Kelly would be. Might be the same position, but such a different player - and different in ways that complement everyone better than what Kelly would do. Galloway is better than anything we had in that role since Eddie House. Nader and Moore are not really contributing in a positive way as of now, but I'm pretty sure they are better than what we had in 11th-13th guys last year. I'm sure this has some kind of positive effect in practices, etc... So this is the small stuff adding up.

So all in all - in a lot of way's CP has a much better team to work with, hence we should be better than last year. We are better - despite CP not being any better overall than Rubio.

While I agree with this somewhat, I think it's too soon to decide this. I will say this - CP3 brings far more intensity and seriousness to this roster than the affable and easy-going Rubio. So while you can argue that the development we're seeing from the likes of Mikal and Cam (and lately Ayton) is something that was anyway due, I do think that having someone as intense and committed to winning as CP3 is rubbing off on these guys. The proof of that will be seen by the end of the season. Ultimately, if we end up making the playoffs as a 4th or 5th seed, then the trade will be seen as a success.

Looking at this from a value perspective on a dollar-by-dollar basis isn't probably ideal. Purely from the stat sheet, Rubio's production at 17 million seems to be much better value than CP's similar production at 40+ million, but value was never the purpose of this trade. The purpose was to get to the playoffs, and hasten the development of our younger guys.

Also worth considering that CP's deal is short and doesn't do any long term cap damage. The issue that Jones really needs to grapple with is elevating the team from 1st or 2nd round playoff team to contender. I don't see a pathway to that yet, but again it's probably way too soon to be having that conversation.

Good takes, I agree. My problem is mostly the opportunity cost and the 2nd year of his contract, while he is clearly declining.
I do think that we are a good team overall too, and we could (should?) go to the second round this year. Problems are a bit further out - next year (no draftpick, shame we gave it up), and afterwards, when we'll be capped out with our (youngish?) core of Book/Mikal/Cam/Ayton.

[Saberestar]

This debate reminds me of Terry Porter saying in preseason (or early RS) of 2008/09 that we had Grant Hill and Matt Barnes at SF and he considered them about the same as a players, that both could do the same on the court.

He said something like that and I was very surprised about it and automatically I was a bit worried about him as our HC.

I am not comparing Rubio with Matt Barnes, just pointing out that the difference between him and CP3 is probably similar to the difference between Barnes and old Hill in my eyes.

And I get that when comparing these two players there are salaries involved, but then we need to remember that Oubre was part of the deal too.

Rubio is not playing well on his current team so you never know how he would have played this season on the Suns. I do not take anything for granted.

[Wilber85]

CP3 and his contract vs. Rubio and contract.

I take Rubio. I bet we would be in the same position or actually better (Remember last year without Ayton). Rubio led us to 8-7.

Love what Frank said about Rubio doesn't hurt us, but an ineffective CP3 kills us. Touche! Well said.