GT #12: Washington Wizards & San Antonio Spurs 1/24/2021 8:00PM

[nate33]

If C.J. McCollum were not on the Trailblazers I believe Damian Lillard could average 35 as well. He has with CJMc injured. Scorers who take 28 FGAs a night do tend to average quite a few.

Beal has taken the leap to greatness but floor balance and shot distribution suck whenever one or two guys are hoisting so many shots.

The Beal hate needs to stop. Beal isn't posting empty numbers. Beal isn't screwing up the floor balance and shot distribution. Beal is having an awesome season so far.

Beal led the team last night in on/off differential. And he is posting an exceptional on/off rating for the season (+6.7) while leading the team in minutes played by a ton.

When Beal is on the court, the Wizards are -0.7 points per 100 possessions relative to their competition. Basically, that's a 40-win team in an 82-game season. When Beal is off the court, the Wizards are -7.7 points per 100 possessions. That's a 22-win team.

The only thing bad I can say about Beal is that he is regularly fading in the 4th quarter. Some of it is fatigue, but I think some of it is that once teams see him do his thing for 25 or so possessions, they start to figure it out. Possessions 26-33 tend to be less efficient. Beal might have more success if he defers to his teammates earlier in the game (even if it costs us a bit in production) so that he can conserve energy and keep the opponent guessing a bit when it's time to take over in the 4th. In his defense, it should be Westbrook's role to take some of the pressure off of Beal, but Westbrook has been awful. If Beal defers to Westbrook for any length of time, we fall behind.

Is this meaningless? (I’ll just use your own metrics)

Beal off the court defensive rating: 107.5 (hey, that would be top 5 in the NBA)

Beal on the court defensive rating: 116.6 (ouch, that’s 2nd to last in the NBA)

That’s a team worst +9.1 difference.


We all know Beal is a good player and the reason the wizards are relevant at all and competitive for a little bit in these games, but it’s not hating to point out that while he’s a great player offensively, his positive impact is reduced by his defense.

Sure. But if you are going to point out the DRtg difference, you better also pay attention to the ORtg difference. With Beal on the court, the ORtg is 117.9. With him off it's 103.3. That's a 14.6 point difference! We are the worst offense in the league without him and the 2nd best with him (0.1 point shy of being best).

Furthermore, I think it's pretty clear that Beal is a big factor in the ORtg difference judging by his PPG, his efficiency and his passing. It's far from clear that Beal is the cause of the DRtg difference because shooting guards typically are not the difference makers in a defensive scheme.

[payitforward]

If C.J. McCollum were not on the Trailblazers I believe Damian Lillard could average 35 as well. He has with CJMc injured. Scorers who take 28 FGAs a night do tend to average quite a few.

Beal has taken the leap to greatness but floor balance and shot distribution suck whenever one or two guys are hoisting so many shots.

The Beal hate needs to stop. Beal isn't posting empty numbers. Beal isn't screwing up the floor balance and shot distribution. Beal is having an awesome season so far.

Beal led the team last night in on/off differential. And he is posting an exceptional on/off rating for the season (+6.7) while leading the team in minutes played by a ton.

When Beal is on the court, the Wizards are -0.7 points per 100 possessions relative to their competition. Basically, that's a 40-win team in an 82-game season. When Beal is off the court, the Wizards are -7.7 points per 100 possessions. That's a 22-win team.

The only thing bad I can say about Beal is that he is regularly fading in the 4th quarter. ...

We are often behind in the 4th quarter (not the first couple games odf the season but since then), which puts much more pressure on Beal. To me, that's sufficient reason to do worse in Q4.

Overall, he's having the best season of his career -- he deserves plaudits not critique.

[payitforward]

As to what I highlighted above imagine a young player such as Devin Vassell or Tyrese Halliburton in place of Bradley Beal and you can have a 40 win team and a team which teams cannot game plan against at the end of games because you don’t know who’s going to take the shot.

Vassell and Halliburton will need to get a lot better and more accomplished before they can even be mentioned in the same sentence as Beal...much less as BB’s replacement....

Why? They are both playing absolutely great -- unbelievable for rookies. Certainly way better than Brad played as a rookie!

Brad is a tremendous guy & a tremendous player. But let's not set up any player as some kind of idol. & of course, he will be replaced. Everyone is replaced.

Overall, both those two young guys are playing at a level on a par with Brad. They aren't scoring on a par with him, & they aren't being asked to do what he's being asked to do. But, still, there's nothing about Brad that should be used to downplay those kids. That's just wrong.

As far as that goes, the out-of-nowhere, undrafted phenom Mason Jones is playing better than either of those two guys -- & he is playing better than Brad Beal too! On 120 minutes, to be sure. & it's 99.9% sure he'll topple from that peak. But, that doesn't mean we don't mention what he's doing, & it doesn't mean we don't point out Beal & others as markers for his performance.

Beal is an All-NBA level talent.

That's another one of those "statue-in-the-park" descriptions, Zards -- & all that happens to a statue in the park is that it gets birdshxt on its head and shoulders!

Take a look at how well Jordan Clarkson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jrue Holiday, Luka Doncic, CJ McCollum, Mikal Bridges & Nic Batum are playing this year -- unbelievably well every one of them. Nor does saying that take anything away from the year Brad is having or how terrific he is & has been overall.