NEXT! 14yo from Montreal is now 7’4 (class of 2024 and beyond)

[Hair Canada]

Class of 2021 top-25:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2035998
Class of 2022 top-25:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2038491
Class of 2023 top-25:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2041494

Beyond the class of 2023, no Canadian player has emerged so far as a surefire NBA prospect, the way Barrett and Wiggins did at age 14 and Fisher already at age 13. And we also shouldn’t expect that to happen. Realistically, guys like Wiggins, Barrett, and Fisher—physical specimens who dominate already at a young age, look like top-5 prospects in the world for their age group, and seem destined to reach the NBA—are few and far in between. It’s been happening about every 5 years in Canada over the last decade, but that doesn’t mean it will also continue to happen.

Canada's population is about 1/10 that of the US. And if we acknowledge the elephant in the room -- the fact that all of the players I mentioned above are Black -- then the ratio of the Canadian Black community to that of the American one is about 1/40. Statistically, assuming equal training conditions, you’d expect this to translate to (at best) one Canadian player per draft, located somewhere in the late first round or (even more likely) in the second round. And we should be having no more than 10 Canadians in the NBA overall, considering that there are also other countries besides Canada and the US. Obviously, we’ve been punching well above our weight over the last decade. But to expect a steady stream of NBA stars is just not realistic.

So the 2024 and younger classes don’t yet have a face; no player who would be a household name for basketball fans as the next Canadian superstar the way Wiggins, Barrett, and Fisher were at this age. Perhaps one or more will emerge in the near future. In the meanwhile, I’ll try to highlight a couple of early standouts (to me at least). No more than 5 guys from each of the 2024 and 2025 classes. Actually, I'm not sure if I can even get to 5. In any case, I wouldn’t even presume to do a top-25 ranking here

Even more than other classes, two huge limitations here: First, the last time I watched these guys play competitive basketball was at least a year ago, meaning that they were 14 at most, mostly even younger. So pretty much anything I write here is seriously outdated. Second, with no U15 nationals this summer or Biosteel futures before that, my review will be largely limited to the Ontario prospects. I have nothing to say about prospects from The Maritimes or from Western Canada, and I’m also limited in how much I know about the QC prospects. Unfortunately, the Ontario guys tend to receive disproportionate mainstream and social media exposure at these early ages, so I’m sorry to further contribute to this, but I can only speak about those I’ve watched.

Still, in less than half a year, if COVID allows, these kids and others are going to form the basis of the Canadian U16 team for the FIBA Americas championship, where less than two years ago guys like Caleb Houstan, Shaedon Sharpe, Enoch Boakye, and Ryan Nembhard showed their talents. So this is a first look at some of them. I’ll try to keep it relatively short and if you have anyone else to add, feel free. I’m sure I’m already missing a few promising prospects.

Okay, so I have a couple of guys in mind (one of them in the title), but I ran out of time with this lengthy intro. Will hopefully get to writing about some players tomorrow.

[sule]

Tank for the poutine-eater!

[howlin mad axer]

This kid is going to grow taller, will have joint problems, will be slow, he isn't a realistic NBA prospect.

[Psubs]

There is too tall. Like Tacko being too slow.

Even Kai Sotto looks slow.

Chet Holmgren is so lanky. Wembenyana is like 7'2. No if you're too tall and unable to guard the P&R, you can't play in the NBA.

[13th Man]

Most recent video I could find of him. Doesn't look very agile but the kid is only 14 years old so I'll cut him some slack. Best of luck in his developments.

Watch on YouTube

[djsunyc]

this kid can barely run.

[ReggieSlater]

I don't mean to be a downer on this, but this kid doesn't look very good. His own teammates are looking him off in the post to pass across the court for threes. Maybe it's because they don't know what they're doing, but if this dude is destined for the NBA, he should be destroying his competition.

[RapZilla]

He's gonna need to improve in many ways to have a shot. He's stiff af out there.

[NotMyKawhi]

He's slow but I liked some of those deep outlet passes. Seems to have good hands too

[Hair Canada]

CLASS OF 2024:

1. Jacob Theodosiou (15yo; 6’3 PG; Waterloo, ON). Jacob caught my eye already more than 3 years ago as an 11yo. He played in the inaugural youth Canadian Signature League, which included 2023 guys like Elijah Fisher, Jahsemar Olembe, and Jaiden Cole, all of them a year or two older than Theodosiou. He still managed to lead that league in scoring, somehow able to score consistently over much bigger kids... I still didn’t dare mention his name at the time because he was a 5’2 skinny kid (no more than 100lbs) and you really couldn’t know whether and how he’ll develop physically. This remained true up to about a year ago. But then he finally shot up in height and now stands at around 6’2 or 6’3 with a developing frame. And I think he’s not even done growing, as he just turned 15 lately and his dad, who’s a basketball coach, is fairly tall.

While he remains a bit light and is not a high flyer, I think he’s just a unique basketball talent. Great feel for the game, ambidextrous with a tight handle, and one of the better shooters I’ve seen from all ranges. Just has a natural touch and knows how to use it well. Also a fantastic scorer. Always on attack mode with a wide variety of moves and shakes, using a mix of quickness, savvy moves, and toughness to finish at the rim or score from distance. His great mentality and feel also translate on the defensive end, where despite average tools he’s a pesky defender with a good nose for steals.

Right now, Jacob is a better scorer than he is a playmaker, but I’m not too concerned about it given the scoring demands from modern PGs and his high basketball IQ. I think he’ll work out the right balance and the scoring threat will help open up passing lanes for him. Still a long way to go but now that he’s caught up physically I really like the potential. He moved to play at a US high school this year, so he’s able to maintain a competitive environment and keep working on his body and skill while also competing.

2. Mikkel Tyne (15.5yo; around 5’11; Brampton, ON). And here’s a guy I did mention 3 years ago, even though he was not yet 13yo. At that time, he was already around 5’7 and looked truly unique on both ends of the floor. And he remains very good athlete with excellent speed and hang time, great handle, and the ability to finish with both hands and change speeds. Also has a smooth shot with very good elevation and form, including a beautiful step back. On the defensive end, he’s a pest, with great strength and lateral movement, who can really keep up with opposing guards.

So how come he’s not first for me anymore on this list of 2024? First, he might still be; it's pretty close. But eventually, size matters in basketball. He hasn’t grown much over the last three years and I’m just not sure he has any growth spurt left in him. And if he remains around 6’0, there are just very few guys this size who make it to the highest levels of basketball. In addition, although his shot looks good, right now he too often doesn’t make it. And while he has nice playmaking skills, he also coughs the ball too often and has a hard time against long defenders. Without a couple more inches, his margin of error will be quite thin and he’ll need to become an elite shooter and playmaker to make it to the highest levels.

[seanbig]

It would do him good to get into playing other sports like soccer , tennis and even ballet and dance to get him more coordinated

and take more time off in the summer to avoid getting stress fractures

[Hair Canada]

3. Jalique Dunkley-Distant (6’5 SG; Stoney Creek, ON). A nice talent that I first saw during the 2019 NBA junior world championship for teams, where he led his team to an impressive win over Tyne’s team in the Ontario championship. A guard/wing with good size, athleticism, and strength, and a nice motor, playing with quite a bit of enthusiasm and spirit. Already has a pretty good handle and is able to attack either side of the rim. Can create for himself, but is not selfish. Also a good and motivated defender who sits in position and moves his feet well. Not a great shooter, but has made some nice strides over the last two years. His shooting form is still a bit awkward, with a low (but quick) release and the shot looks a bit flat, but he’s been working on it and improving. The decision making is not very good right now and the finishing touch under the basket could use some fine-tuning as well.

JDD moved to play with Orangeville Prep last year and although he’s their youngest player he received some steady minutes. competing against older tough defenders seemed to benefit his development. Looking forward to seeing him again once youth basketball goes back to action in Canada.

4. AJ Osman (6’3 PG; Ottawa. A PG with very good size and strength, as well as a good athletic profile and burst. Also has pretty good speed and a nice handle, with some craftiness and the ability to finish with both hands. Already shows some signs of being able to create separation and shoot step backs. Has a good motor and plays unselfishly with good vision.

With all that, when I watched him play against kids a bit older than him in a couple of games, he didn’t dominate at all despite the apparent talent. Looked a bit hesitant and had a hard time making a mark on the game. The potential and physical tools are certainly there but I’ll need to see more production to buy in on him as an elite prospect.

5. Jordan Atahir (6’8 combo forward, ON). The guy I’ve watched the least on this list, as there’s virtually no video footage of him available online. From the very little I’ve seen, he obviously has excellent size, with a solid physical frame to go along with a good athletic profile. But he’s also fluid and agile and the skill level is surprisingly advanced for his size and age, showing some decent handle and signs of a good shooting touch around the basket. The perimeter skills and feel for the game are work in progress. And depending on whether he’s still growing I think he might end up playing as a big, but there’s certainly potential there for more. If he continues his development trajectory, he might jump over a couple of guys who are currently higher on this list.


Okay, found 5 for 2024. Let's see if I can do the same for 2025.

[lolwut]

This kid runs like Bernie Sanders if you try to imagine what Bernie Sanders running would look like.

[Hair Canada]

CLASS OF 2025:

I'll end with this one. And though it’s really too early to say anything with confidence at this age, I quite like the first signs I’ve seen from this class. A couple of really nice prospects, who hopefully will continue to develop well.

1. Chris Tadjo (6’7 SF; 200lbs; Montreal, QC). From the little I’ve seen, he might be the most promising potential in these age groups (under 16). Tadjo, still only 14yo, already has the physical profile of a high school graduate, with a unique blend of strength and explosiveness. Yet, he’s also agile and fluid. At 6’7 and 200lbs, he moves like a wing, dunking with authority and showing some initial ball-handling skills. The potential seems mindboggling. Now, he might be one of these boys who max-out physically at an early age. But even if that’s the case, then much like Elijah Fisher he already has great physical tools to work with.

In the coming years, he’ll need to hone his skills in order to make good on the promise. Toward that, I think he’s made a really smart move this year, choosing to transfer to the NBA South America Academy, along with two other promising young Quebecois prospects who will keep him company. Clearly, it’s not easy to move away from home at such a young age. But this institutional framework has already helped in improving other QC prospects, such as Ben Mathurin and O-Max Prosper. And from what I hear, it offers real benefits relative to what young basketball players can get in QC, in terms of competition, as well as the facilities and professional staff to work with in order to develop various aspects of their game. I hope we might get to see Tadjo in the coming FIBA Americas U16 this summer, if these games even take place.

2. Jacob Hammond (6’7 SF; ON). Another kid with an excellent physical profile, to go along with some perimeter skills. A smooth and fluid athlete, at 14 Hammond already possesses some nice ball skills (though he relies too heavily on his right hand), combined with impressive agility and strength. A very good slasher who gets to the paint with ease and finishes above the rim with authority, already able to absorb some contact. Also shows initial signs of a nice shooting touch. Hammond joined Crestwood Prep last summer, so he will have a chance to play for Ro Russell, maybe alongside Elijah Fisher if he stays in Canada.

[ontnut]

Willing to bet $1000 he doesn't make the NBA. He looks like all arms and legs, and not much else. Super lanky, no mobility, no shot.

[Hair Canada]

3. Josiah Sutton (6’0 PG; Caledon, ON). The closest thing I’ve seen in this 2025 age group to Mikkel Tyne from 2024. A PG with excellent handle, strength, speed, and penetration. Right-handed, but finishes well with both hands. Already shows great hesitation moves. The outside shot doesn’t look as polished as that of Tyne, but he’s a good shooter. Also like Tyne, he’s an excellent defender (lockdown in man to man and also a good help defender), who disrupts plays and gets many steals. Very composed, though he can be a bit turnover-prone against tougher competition. If you asked me about current ability, I would say that he’s probably the best player in this class right now. My main concern though, also a bit like Tyne, is whether he maxed out early. I think he’s already 15yo (or just about to turn 15) and might be close to physical maturity. But hopefully, he still has a couple of inches and some extra athleticism in him.

4. Tracy Kalonda (6’3 SF; Ottawa, ON). I was higher on him two years ago, when he won the MVP of the Ontario youth all-star game in Toronto and looked like a really promising prospect. At the time he showed a very nice combination of size (I think he was already around 6’2 then), skill, and even some shooting. But watching more recent footage, I was less impressed. He’s still a good scorer, often leading his team in that department, as he’s strong and has a good attack mentality and a decent handle to get into the paint, along with pretty good touch. But once again it seems a bit like a case of an early bloomer. As far as I can tell, he hasn’t grown much over the last two years, and his overall athleticism level (speed and burst) looks somewhat limited. I also haven’t seen much from him so far in terms of shooting touch. Can make some jumpers, but it doesn’t look great and certainly not his strong suit. Skill-wise, he’s right-hand dominant and if he cannot add significant height (seems unlikely), he’ll need to really make another jump with his skill level.

Right now, he might actually be the most dominant player of this 2025 group. But I do have some concerns about his level of athleticism. He often dominates now with his mix of skill, size, and strength. But I’m not sure how this is going to hold long-term.

I'll write about Olivier Rioux tomorrow.

[Hair Canada]

5. Olivier Rioux (14yo (will turn 15 next week); 7’4; Montreal, QC). Three years ago, I talked about this young Montreal phenome, who at the time was not yet 12 and already 6’10. Well, now he’s 14 (almost 15) and 7’4. And pretty much the whole basketball world has already heard of him because of that viral video of him that spread like wildfire two years ago, where he dunked without even jumping over poor kids on eight-foot nets.

Okay, so you can’t teach size. But what can he do except for being very tall? And what are his chances to get to the NBA? To be honest, 3 years ago I was more optimistic. Since then, the game has gone even further away from heavy centers who can’t really move all that well. Zach Edey, the 18yo Canadian who plays at Purdue, is also 7’4. He is significantly stronger, more aggressive, and moves better than Rioux (though he also has almost four years over him). And still, I think Edey’s chances of getting to the NBA and carving a role there remain pretty low. Rioux has decent lower body strength for his age and he’s not a skinny push-over, like a few teenagers his height are. But he also moves heavily and slowly and lacks any athleticism (can hardly leave the floor and has a hard time even dunking). On top of that, as someone noted here, he looks very stiff and doesn’t seem to have good coordination. Maybe most worrisome for me (and unlike Edey), he plays pretty softly and seems to shy away from contact, sporting a weak upper body and lacking in aggressiveness.

All that might well change as he continues to grow, mature, and develop his body and skills. With bigs, you really have to be patient. But right now, I have serious doubts about his mobility, coordination, and toughness and can’t even see him play professional basketball, not to mention the NBA.


Okay, I'll stop here. That's that for this "NEXT" project. Maybe I'll be back again in 3 years to see how I've done and to ramble a bit about the Canadian class of 2028...

Anyway, I can end with the same words I ended with 3 years ago:

Canadian basketball is here to stay!

[Coco Costanza]

Has there ever been a good really tall player in the NBA? Seems like most of the really tall guys are just freaks who have no natural feel for the game.

[Hair Canada]

Has there ever been a good really tall player in the NBA? Seems like most of the really tall guys are just freaks who have no natural feel for the game.

Well, depends on how you define "really tall". If 7'3 is tall enough for you, then Porzingis and before him, Sabonis the dad (Ervidas) and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are/were really good players. If 7'4 is your lower bar then both Rik Smits and Ralph Sampson (though for a short time span) were excellent players.

Above that? Yao Ming of course (7'6) was a 5-time all-star and not just because the Chinese voted for him. He was actually a very good player with a natural feel, strength, and a soft shooting touch.

[Coco Costanza]

I was thinking 7'6", and up, so Ming counts. When I think of guys like this kid, though, I think of Shawn Bradley or Manute Bol. Very tall, but also very skinny.