2021 49ers offseason

[thesack12]

I personally don't see Stafford as much of an upgrade on Jimmy, if any.

Also, the current price being thrown around is "at least a 1st" makes it a HARD pass for me. If 9ers will be using 1st round picks to get a QB, I'd much rather be it used as part of a trade up package for Zach Wilson.

Let Indy/Washington/Chicago/New England/etc be the participants in that Stafford bidding war.

[thesack12]

One thing I don't really hear much about is a potential trade market for Jimmy, should Frisco decide to move on from him.

Minus Dak, who is surely returning to Dallas, we're looking at a QB free agent class featuring a broken Cam Newton/Fitzpatrick/Trubisky/Brissett/Tyrod Taylor/Dalton. There will be interest in Garoppolo, especially considering his very team friendly contract.

Its not like he suffered a serious injury with long term concerns such as an achilles tear or throwing shoulder labrum tear, etc. He has a couple of high ankle sprains. That won't scare off would be trade suitors.

[wco81]

The other problem is clearing cap space, though he's on a good cap number $20 million.

Has elite arm but early in his career he had Megatron.

I remember Harbaugh's first season with the 49ers, they went into Detroit with the Lions 5-0. This was the game the 49ers pulled out and Harbaugh didn't shake hands with what's his name the guy who was coach then.

But I recall Stafford, who was still young at the time, didn't seem to be one of those guys processing the coverages or anything. He threw up jump balls to Megatron, wasn't really good at presnap/postsnap reads, progressions.

Not that it matters now, these days, it's about second reaction and making plays.

In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that Mahomes isn't about going through progressions, just that he has two studs who win most matchups in Hill and Kelce and some other speedy targets. So all he checks is which of his top two targets are separating and he's great at sensing and escaping pressure.

[thesack12]

The other problem is clearing cap space, though he's on a good cap number $20 million.

Has elite arm but early in his career he had Megatron.

I remember Harbaugh's first season with the 49ers, they went into Detroit with the Lions 5-0. This was the game the 49ers pulled out and Harbaugh didn't shake hands with what's his name the guy who was coach then.

But I recall Stafford, who was still young at the time, didn't seem to be one of those guys processing the coverages or anything. He threw up jump balls to Megatron, wasn't really good at presnap/postsnap reads, progressions.

Not that it matters now, these days, it's about second reaction and making plays.

In fact, I have a sneaking suspicion that Mahomes isn't about going through progressions, just that he has two studs who win most matchups in Hill and Kelce and some other speedy targets. So all he checks is which of his top two targets are separating and he's great at sensing and escaping pressure.

I agree entirely on Stafford. An all time talent at WR very much buoyed Stafford's numbers and overall reputation. Much in the same way that Julio has done for Ryan.

People really under-rate the handicap an offense, most specifically the QB, has to endure with a subpar group of weapons. And on the flip side how much a great receiver can make a "meh" QB look good and also open up so many things for his teammates because he commands so much attention from the defense.

Jim Schwartz was the non hand shaking Lions coach.

[TheBlackCzar]

Staffords career stats
2009-15 with Megatron
2016- after without

Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
2009 21 DET QB 9 10 10 2-8-0 201 377 53.3 2267 13 3.4 20 5.3 111 75 6.0 4.3 11.3 226.7 61.0 37.1 24 169 5.23 3.64 6.0 1 1 3
2010 22 DET 9 3 3 1-2-0 57 96 59.4 535 6 6.3 1 1.0 28 36 5.6 6.4 9.4 178.3 91.3 50.1 4 36 4.99 5.74 4.0 1 1 2
2011 23 DET QB 9 16 16 10-6-0 421 663 63.5 5038 41 6.2 16 2.4 243 73 7.6 7.7 12.0 314.9 97.2 60.5 36 257 6.84 6.98 5.2 3 4 16
2012 24 DET QB 9 16 16 4-12-0 435 727 59.8 4967 20 2.8 17 2.3 267 57 6.8 6.3 11.4 310.4 79.8 56.1 29 212 6.29 5.81 3.8 3 3 13
2013 25 DET QB 9 16 16 7-9-0 371 634 58.5 4650 29 4.6 19 3.0 223 87 7.3 6.9 12.5 290.6 84.2 53.5 23 168 6.82 6.40 3.5 2 3 13
2014* 26 DET QB 9 16 16 11-5-0 363 602 60.3 4257 22 3.7 12 2.0 212 73 7.1 6.9 11.7 266.1 85.7 47.3 45 254 6.19 6.03 7.0 5 5 12
2015 27 DET QB 9 16 16 7-9-0 398 592 67.2 4262 32 5.4 13 2.2 224 57 7.2 7.3 10.7 266.4 97.0 58.3 44 251 6.31 6.39 6.9 2 3 13
2016 28 DET QB 9 16 16 9-7-0 388 594 65.3 4327 24 4.0 10 1.7 218 73 7.3 7.3 11.2 270.4 93.3 65.2 37 216 6.52 6.56 5.9 8 8 14
2017 29 DET QB 9 16 16 9-7-0 371 565 65.7 4446 29 5.1 10 1.8 210 71 7.9 8.1 12.0 277.9 99.3 65.2 47 287 6.80 7.01 7.7 1 4 14
2018 30 DET QB 9 16 16 6-10-0 367 555 66.1 3777 21 3.8 11 2.0 197 67 6.8 6.7 10.3 236.1 89.9 51.3 40 255 5.92 5.79 6.7 0 1 10
2019 31 DET QB 9 8 8 3-4-1 187 291 64.3 2499 19 6.5 5 1.7 117 66 8.6 9.1 13.4 312.4 106.0 71.3 18 137 7.64 8.15 5.8 2 1 8
2020 32 DET QB 9 16 16 5-11-0 339 528 64.2 4084 26 4.9 10 1.9 205 73 7.7 7.9 12.0 255.3 96.3 68.5 38 254 6.77 6.89 6.7 3 4 12
Career 165 165 74-90-1 3898 6224 62.6 45109 282 4.5 144 2.3 2255 87 7.2 7.1 11.6 273.4 89.9 385 2496 6.45 6.32 5.8 31 38 130

[thesack12]

If we want to talk stats:

Stafford career: 62.6 completion %, 282/144 TD/INT ratio (1.958 to 1) 7.2 YPA 89.9 rating
Garoppolo career: 67.5 completion %, 51/26 TD/INT ratio (1.961 to 1) 8.2 YPA 98.9 rating

Most importantly of all:

Stafford 74-90-1 career record with an 0-3 postseason record in 12 seasons
Garoppolo 24-8 career record with a 2-1 postseason record (Super bowl appearance) in 3.5 seasons as the full time starter.

I'm well aware that stats/numbers have many variables and unseen factors that play into compiling them. I also don't doubt that Stafford has a better arm and probably more overall talent than Jimmy does. That said, Stafford hasn't ever really made that translate into anything notable.

This discussion is about looking for a better QB that can elevate a team. Stafford has proven he's not really capable of elevating a team. Which is why I previously posted that I personally don't think Stafford is much of an upgrade, if any. So I'm not interested in trading draft picks for a mostly lateral move, especially with the price tag that's currently being talked about.

[Bald Bull]

Stafford has also played for **** coaches his whole career, and hasnt had much weapons since megatron left, and detroit has ranked toward the bottom of the league in running the ball every single year since Stafford has been in the league.

He is more durable than Jimmy, throws less INTs, reads the field better, and actually forces defenses to cover the whole field cause he can throw deep and outside.

pairing stafford with Kittle, aiyuk, deebo, mostert, wilson, juice, reed (possibly) and kyle's ability to scheme people open, plus one of the better running teams in the league to help him, i think he would actually look better here than Detroit.

He's not as much of an upgrade as Watson, but he is enough of an upgrade to put us over the top.

[wco81]

Patriots may be one of the leading teams likely to acquire Stafford. They have plenty of cap space.

[thesack12]

Stafford has also played for **** coaches his whole career, and hasnt had much weapons since megatron left, and detroit has ranked toward the bottom of the league in running the ball every single year since Stafford has been in the league.

He is more durable than Jimmy, throws less INTs, reads the field better, and actually forces defenses to cover the whole field cause he can throw deep and outside.

pairing stafford with Kittle, aiyuk, deebo, mostert, wilson, juice, reed (possibly) and kyle's ability to scheme people open, plus one of the better running teams in the league to help him, i think he would actually look better here than Detroit.

He's not as much of an upgrade as Watson, but he is enough of an upgrade to put us over the top.

Post Megatron, Stafford has had multiple seasons with all of Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron and even had a season with Anquan Boldin. I'll give you Stafford hasn't had great coaches, but lack of weapons has definitely not been an issue with Stafford's career. The running game is a matter of offensive philosophy more than anything, if anything the lack of emphasis on a running game has just allowed Stafford to compile more stats out of sheer volume.

On the other side, Garoppolo's most notable weapons have been Marquise Goodwin, 1/2 a season of 32 year old Emmanuel Sanders not too far removed from a torn achilles, a rookie Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

We can sit here and speculate to eternity to what degree Stafford has been hampered by other factors, and how much Garoppolo has been propped up by other factors. However, an actually good QB with capability to elevate a team should of had more than 3 career playoff appearances, with 0 wins in 12 seasons, don't you think?

Of note, in 2014 (Megatron still around) Detroit had the 3rd best defense in points allowed, 2nd best defense in yards allowed, and the 6th best turnover differential, yet Detroit still lost in the 1st round of the playoffs to Dallas. So its not like Stafford has never had a solid squad around him.

We know that Jimmy can get his team to the super bowl, we don't even know if Stafford can win a single playoff game. Dude will be 33 years old next season with a ton of mileage on him, its quite possible his best days are already behind him.

[thesack12]

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Still don't want him back (or Beathard). Would much prefer keeping Rosen around as the #2, and grabbing a developmental guy in the late rounds to be the #3.

If 9ers draft a QB in the 1st via a trade up, then obviously they wouldn't be a taking a developmental late.

[thesack12]

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I like it. Wilson is a really solid #2 that is capable of popping off some really big games and is a decent receiver.

It was looking pretty iffy there for awhile before last season but I'm glad they decided to keep Wilson on the roster.

[arich35]

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I like it. Wilson is a really solid #2 that is capable of popping off some really big games and is a decent receiver.

It was looking pretty iffy there for awhile before last season but I'm glad they decided to keep Wilson on the roster.

RB seems to be set for next year minus either a late round draft pick or UDFA guys. I don't see us signing a FA or early draft pick on a guy

[Bald Bull]

Stafford has also played for **** coaches his whole career, and hasnt had much weapons since megatron left, and detroit has ranked toward the bottom of the league in running the ball every single year since Stafford has been in the league.

He is more durable than Jimmy, throws less INTs, reads the field better, and actually forces defenses to cover the whole field cause he can throw deep and outside.

pairing stafford with Kittle, aiyuk, deebo, mostert, wilson, juice, reed (possibly) and kyle's ability to scheme people open, plus one of the better running teams in the league to help him, i think he would actually look better here than Detroit.

He's not as much of an upgrade as Watson, but he is enough of an upgrade to put us over the top.

Post Megatron, Stafford has had multiple seasons with all of Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron and even had a season with Anquan Boldin. I'll give you Stafford hasn't had great coaches, but lack of weapons has definitely not been an issue with Stafford's career. The running game is a matter of offensive philosophy more than anything, if anything the lack of emphasis on a running game has just allowed Stafford to compile more stats out of sheer volume.

On the other side, Garoppolo's most notable weapons have been Marquise Goodwin, 1/2 a season of 32 year old Emmanuel Sanders not too far removed from a torn achilles, a rookie Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

We can sit here and speculate to eternity to what degree Stafford has been hampered by other factors, and how much Garoppolo has been propped up by other factors. However, an actually good QB with capability to elevate a team should of had more than 3 career playoff appearances, with 0 wins in 12 seasons, don't you think?

Of note, in 2014 (Megatron still around) Detroit had the 3rd best defense in points allowed, 2nd best defense in yards allowed, and the 6th best turnover differential, yet Detroit still lost in the 1st round of the playoffs to Dallas. So its not like Stafford has never had a solid squad around him.

We know that Jimmy can get his team to the super bowl, we don't even know if Stafford can win a single playoff game. Dude will be 33 years old next season with a ton of mileage on him, its quite possible his best days are already behind him.

I have a hard time believing several different offensive coaches over his 12 year career, all shared the same philosophy of abandoning the run. Stafford has had only 11 games in his 12 year career where the RB had over 100 yards. they only has 76 games where they reached 100 rushing yards as a team total, which averages to about 4 games per season. since 2009 lions have been last in yard per carry, and 29th in rushing TDs, If all those coaches shared the philosophy of being dead last in running the ball, it only shows how incompetent they where, and how little they did to help Stafford.

Stafford will have a hell of a lot more help from the running game here.

in 4 of the last 5 season his defenses had been in the bottom 5. You can point to individual years where he had a good defense, but more often than not it was bad. People love point out that stafford has so many passing yards because his team is always coming from behind, but that supports the idea that his defense couldn't stop anyone, and he still ranks toward the top of the league in comeback victories.

All those weapons he had were also worst in the league when it came to dropped passes over the span of his career, lions had 350 dropped passes since 2009.

It may sound crazy but maybe Stafford DID elevate his teams, and they where so bad that it still wasn't enough. Lion's are universally considered one of the most incompetent franchises in NFL history, even by their own fans. Everyone know it, don't downplay that fact.

QB wins is the most overated stat in all of football. Vince young had a streak where "all he did was win" and anyone who correctly pointed out that he's not good, got beat over the head with "BUT HE WINS!!!" but what did he have for all those wins he racked up? Great running team and great defense. He was never actually an elite QB though, but the wins blinded people. We "know" foles can win the superbowl...but i doubt you want him starting for us.

wins is laziest evaluation of a QBs talent. Staffords arm talent, abilty to strech the field is undeniable. Jimmy limits this offense, Stafford would open it back up.

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[Bald Bull]

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[thesack12]

I have a hard time believing several different offensive coaches over his 12 year career, all shared the same philosophy of abandoning the run. Stafford has had only 11 games in his 12 year career where the RB had over 100 yards. they only has 76 games where they reached 100 rushing yards as a team total, which averages to about 4 games per season. since 2009 lions have been last in yard per carry, and 29th in rushing TDs, If all those coaches shared the philosophy of being dead last in running the ball, it only shows how incompetent they where, and how little they did to help Stafford.

Stafford will have a hell of a lot more help from the running game here.

in 4 of the last 5 season his defenses had been in the bottom 5. You can point to individual years where he had a good defense, but more often than not it was bad. People love point out that stafford has so many passing yards because his team is always coming from behind, but that supports the idea that his defense couldn't stop anyone, and he still ranks toward the top of the league in comeback victories.

All those weapons he had were also worst in the league when it came to dropped passes over the span of his career, lions had 350 dropped passes since 2009.

It may sound crazy but maybe Stafford DID elevate his teams, and they where so bad that it still wasn't enough. Lion's are universally considered one of the most incompetent franchises in NFL history, even by their own fans. Everyone know it, don't downplay that fact.

QB wins is the most overated stat in all of football. Vince young had a streak where "all he did was win" and anyone who correctly pointed out that he's not good, got beat over the head with "BUT HE WINS!!!" but what did he have for all those wins he racked up? Great running team and great defense. He was never actually an elite QB though, but the wins blinded people. We "know" foles can win the superbowl...but i doubt you want him starting for us.

wins is laziest evaluation of a QBs talent. Staffords arm talent, abilty to strech the field is undeniable. Jimmy limits this offense, Stafford would open it back up.

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The funny thing about a running game, is that its not all that effective if there is no threat of a passing game. This is especially true with play action heavy offenses, such as what the 49ers run. This reflection is not so much of an indictment on Stafford/Detroit's passing game, but more so to point out that the 49ers running game would not be nearly as good if defenses didn't have to respect the passing game. If Garoppolo was as bad as some make him out to be, defenses would just put 9 or 10 guys in the box to sell out and stop the run. Play action doesn't work if defenses don't have to worry about one of the running or passing game. When a threat exists with both attcks, that's when your offense can make hay and be productive.

Speaking of being productive, lets just take a gander into the 2019 season, Jimmy's lone full year as the 49ers starter.

49ers were 2nd in points scored
49ers were 4th in total yards
Jimmy was 5th in completion %
Jimmy was 3rd in yards/attempt
Jimmy was 5th in TD passes
Jimmy was 8th in QB rating

You don't have that potent of an offense, and be among the individual leaders in those stats if your QB is not good.

Honestly, dropped passes is a stat that means nothing to me when evaluating QB's. Not only is it a subjective stat in terms of what is a drop and what isn't, but its a stat that is highly predicated on shear volume. Lions pass a lot more than most teams, so its only naturally they commit a lot of drops. Also Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens are among the all time leaders in drops, due to shear volume of total targets. Also, every QB is a victim of drops. Kendrick Bourne's less than reliable hands immediately come to mind.

I'm not personally going to dismiss the notion that Stafford's numbers are a somewhat inflated due to being on bad teams. Its a fact that bad teams pass more often due to being behind often. Which is why, I don't put a lot of stock into volume stats when evaluating players head to head. In addition, when you are a bad team the QB quite often faces softer/less aggressive defenses in the 4th quarters of games.

I'll give you that the Lions are a poorly ran organization, I won't downplay it because its obvious. However, if we want to talk about elevating a team, its completely up for debate on Stafford's end. However, lets take a quick dive into Jimmy's career.

2017:Came over in midseason trade and took over a 1-10 team and led them to 5 straight wins to close the season
2018:Suffered a season ending injury during game 3 of the season, team was 1-1 at the time so not much to evaluate here
2019:Took a 4-12 team the year before to a 13-3 record (#1 seed in NFC) to a super bowl berth
2020: Had a bum ankle and only played in 6 games. Team had a huge wave on injuries, team was 3-3 with him and 3-7 without him

Sure looks like Jimmy is capable of elevating a team. Even if you disagree with that, you have to at least admit that is sure does seem like he's pretty damn important to the team's success.

I personally don't feel like win/loss record is over-rated at all, in fact I think its actually a little under-rated. After all, like Herman Edwards said "you play to win the game". A win is a win, no matter if its a 9-0 win @ washington in a mud mess or a 48-46 win shootout win in the Superdome. Some people act like win/loss record is some trivial worthless stat like something along the line of most completions in the 2nd quarter of road division games. Winning is pretty damn important, hell the most important thing. And you don't win in the NFL in spite your QB, and you definitely don't win in the NFL with a bad QB. At least not to the tune of .750 winning percentage + a super bowl berth.

In conclusion, I will again repeat that I don't question that Stafford has the better arm and more raw talent than Garoppolo. If all things were equal, I might take Stafford over Jimmy. However, all things aren't equal. It will require entering & winning a bidding war with like 7-8 other teams to trade for Stafford. The price will most likely be #12 + additional picks. This team has over 40 free agents, and isn't in a good cap position. I just don't see trading away draft picks for a QB who is isn't a clear head and shoulders upgrade, to be a good move. But that's just me.

What would you be willing to give for Stafford in trade?

[thesack12]

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Not entirely sure how to read that chart, but it appears like Jimmy has more heat deeper down the field than all those other guys.

As for primarily utilizing the middle of the field, I'm not sure why that is surprising. 49ers best defense stretcher by far is George Kittle who is obviously a tight end, and TE's primarily operated in the middle of the field. All the WR's are basically just possession type guys, they aren't the type to run seam stretching go routes up the sidelines. Honestly, the 2nd best field stretcher might be Kyle Juscyzk and of course FB's will work the middle of the field when coming out of the backfield.

Would also like to see some context to this chart, relative to play calling.

[CrimsonCrew]

Posted this in the NFL thread, but figured it made sense to post here, too.

And a follow-up stating the obvious (Gruden tampers with Richard Sherman):

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/02/03/jon-grudens-comments-to-richard-sherman-are-blatant-tampering/

That's as blatant as I can ever recall a case of tampering. On national media - after being explicitly warned about it! - going about poaching a player who is still under contract. They should lose a pick and face a decent fine for sure.


https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy8zODlhZTVlYy9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/ZDRhYmIzNTQtNGE0ZC00MDYwLWEwOTctYWYzMTQ4Y2U0YjRm?hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwjb1ojP1M3uAhWSKs0KHfT9Cq0QieUEegQIBhAF&ep=6

Just before the three-minute mark, if you want to hear it yourself. I'm all for the Raiders putting their interest out there. Let's drum up the price and get a third-round comp for losing an aging player.

[CrimsonCrew]

I realize this isn't drumming up a whole lot of conversation, but it's a down time of the year. Another interesting angle on this: Sherman represents himself, so Gruden's invitation that they talk off the air is that much worse. He's talking to the player and the agent.

[Dodub]

I realize this isn't drumming up a whole lot of conversation, but it's a down time of the year. Another interesting angle on this: Sherman represents himself, so Gruden's invitation that they talk off the air is that much worse. He's talking to the player and the agent.

Crims this is awful and blatant. The Raiders had better be fined and lose a draft pick. I just wish they’d give that pick to the team that holds the rights to the player

[Dodub]

Crims, here are some viable options at QB. Let me know what you think of each:

Carr, Wentz, Watson, Rodgers, Winston, Darnold.

My thoughts:

Carr - Could be a decent upgrade due to his deep ball being better than Jimmy. Neither is extremely mobile. It would have to be a great bargain for us.

Wentz - If he returns to his potential, which I think Kyle could pull off, he’d be completely worth it. Right now his contract scares me a bit and I wouldn’t want to give up much more than a 2nd rounder for him. If he returned to form under Kyle then we’d look at an MVP candidate.

Rodgers - This is a dream that won’t happen.

Watson - I would give up 3 first rounders (plus more picks) for him, but we’re keeping our young players. He’d take us to the Super Bowl most years.

Darnold - intriguing guy to build upon, he’d have a favorable contract and could be good in our system but I don’t know that he’s ready to take a team to the big dance.

Winston - intriguing player with a huge arm, he would certainly be an upgrade but he has to get rid of the gunslinger mentality. From what I understand the Colts, Bears, Saints and Skins are all after him As a starter so I wouldn’t want to get into a bidding war.