NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[scrabbarista]

The only way LeBron wins is if those dudes (or their teammates) go down with COVID/injuries, and the media justifies his choice with "Remember 2011," like it was the Alamo or something.

We literally have 75% of the season left to play. LeBron will almost certainly keep trending up with his play like he always does throughout the regular season, guys like Embiid might fall back down to earth, and your boy Kawhi as we know has load management situation and that could lead to the Clippers falling behind in the standings significantly. Can you guys relax?

I'm not even saying LeBron will win, but you guys have no sense of perspective whatsoever making these declarations. "The only way he wins..." gtfo here lol. What if he just ends up having the best season and it's not some grand fraudulent media-rigged situation?

I just find it hard to realistically expect him to have the best regular season in the league at age 36 after seven seasons in a row when he hasn't. If it's him versus the field, then the last seven seasons (and his age) should be a big enough sample size to come to a reasonable conclusion.

[scrabbarista]

As of the morning of January 26th.

1. 20.6 - Leonard, LAC
2. 20.0 - Jokic, DEN
3. 19.0 - Embiid, PHI
4. 18.4 - Conley, UTA
5. 18.3 - Durant, BKN

6. 17.8 - James, LAL
7. 16.5 - Gobert, UTA
8. 16.4 - Davis, LAL
9. 15.9 - Lillard, POR
10. 15.3 - George, LAC

-----------------------------------------------------

Since four days ago:

LeBron James looks to be making a move to secure the top spot on his team (lol) after a strong game or two this past week.

Leonard passes Jokic to become the leader for MVP by quietly continuing to dominate.

Gobert joins the top ten, replacing the injured C.J. McCollum.

Unfortunately, the voters don't go by whatever metric this is. I'd love to see Conley get more votes than LeBron.

If these are just your numbers for MVP, that is nice and all but LeBron and the narrative are getting a ton of votes either way. Just how it goes.

I'm about 99% sure James will be higher than Conley in this metric by the end of the season. Anything we say in this thread right now is subject to sample size, so everything (including any stats or my MVP metric) has to be taken with that particular grain of salt.

[Ballerhogger]

The only way LeBron wins is if those dudes (or their teammates) go down with COVID/injuries, and the media justifies his choice with "Remember 2011," like it was the Alamo or something.

We literally have 75% of the season left to play. LeBron will almost certainly keep trending up with his play like he always does throughout the regular season, guys like Embiid might fall back down to earth, and your boy Kawhi as we know has load management situation and that could lead to the Clippers falling behind in the standings significantly. Can you guys relax?

I'm not even saying LeBron will win, but you guys have no sense of perspective whatsoever making these declarations. "The only way he wins..." gtfo here lol. What if he just ends up having the best season and it's not some grand fraudulent media-rigged situation?

I just find it hard to realistically expect him to have the best regular season in the league at age 36 after seven seasons in a row when he hasn't. If it's him versus the field, then the last seven seasons (and his age) should be a big enough sample size to come to a reasonable conclusion.

He’s shooting his best 3 point percentage he has ever had . Lots game to be played but it’s good sign

[Maxthirty]

LeBron rn. And I say that as a big fan of Jokic, Embiid, and Kawhi.

[scrabbarista]

We literally have 75% of the season left to play. LeBron will almost certainly keep trending up with his play like he always does throughout the regular season, guys like Embiid might fall back down to earth, and your boy Kawhi as we know has load management situation and that could lead to the Clippers falling behind in the standings significantly. Can you guys relax?

I'm not even saying LeBron will win, but you guys have no sense of perspective whatsoever making these declarations. "The only way he wins..." gtfo here lol. What if he just ends up having the best season and it's not some grand fraudulent media-rigged situation?

I just find it hard to realistically expect him to have the best regular season in the league at age 36 after seven seasons in a row when he hasn't. If it's him versus the field, then the last seven seasons (and his age) should be a big enough sample size to come to a reasonable conclusion.

He’s shooting his best 3 point percentage he has ever had . Lots of games to be played but it’s good sign

Yeah, he's stroking it from range.

Anyway, the one problem he'll never have, especially with LAL, is getting into the conversation. I only have him sixth by my formula - which coincides with the winner about 80% of the time - but here he is taking up most of the thread. His high level of exposure alone probably gives him something of a boost. If it feels like he's been talked about all year, then that might provide an edge over someone else - like Kawhi - who's been better than him but not "in the conversation" all season. It's happened in recent years, where James was in the conversation in spite of not really belonging there. In my opinion, obviously. Which is based exclusively on objective numbers (not that anyone cares).

I just trust that the actual voters will be more objective than RGM. He's been terrible (like 38/22/63 splits, with as many turnovers as assists) in two of this last four games, but the narrative here is strictly that he's "turning it on" and "ramping up" etc., etc....

I guess the bottom line is that there are lots of games to be played.

[nzahir]

I bet on Lebron a few weeks back, should I hedge with Embiid?

Jokic, Curry, and Luka wont be high enough seeds

Giannis out due to playoff play and he wont be a 3x mvp in a row

Harden out to due playoffs and now with KD and Kyrie

KD out I think b/c he will likely sit games and has Harden and Kyrie

Only other west option is PG/Kawhi, but they seem to be splitting votes imo

I still say Kawhi, Jokic, and Embiid are the only ones I'd bet on if I were a bettor - in that order.

The only way LeBron wins is if those dudes (or their teammates) go down with COVID/injuries, and the media justifies his choice with "Remember 2011," like it was the Alamo or something.

In any case, there's one thing we can be certain of: Ramona Shelbourne's vote is rock solid.

How so?

Nuggets wont be a top 2 seed

PG has been just as good as Kawhi arguably.

I think Kawhi is a legit threat but now he is in Covid protocol, he may start to sit more B2Bs, and idk if he gets votes after last years 3-1 loss

I do like Embiid, injuries are a concern though

I think Lebron really wins it

Best player, best team, legacy votes as well

I may hedge with Kawhi (30-1) and Embiid (9-1)

[scrabbarista]

I bet on Lebron a few weeks back, should I hedge with Embiid?

Jokic, Curry, and Luka wont be high enough seeds

Giannis out due to playoff play and he wont be a 3x mvp in a row

Harden out to due playoffs and now with KD and Kyrie

KD out I think b/c he will likely sit games and has Harden and Kyrie

Only other west option is PG/Kawhi, but they seem to be splitting votes imo

I still say Kawhi, Jokic, and Embiid are the only ones I'd bet on if I were a bettor - in that order.

The only way LeBron wins is if those dudes (or their teammates) go down with COVID/injuries, and the media justifies his choice with "Remember 2011," like it was the Alamo or something.

In any case, there's one thing we can be certain of: Ramona Shelbourne's vote is rock solid.

How so?

Nuggets wont be a top 2 seed

PG has been just as good as Kawhi arguably.

I think Kawhi is a legit threat but now he is in Covid protocol, he may start to sit more B2Bs, and idk if he gets votes after last years 3-1 loss

I do like Embiid, injuries are a concern though

I think Lebron really wins it

Best player, best team, legacy votes as well

I may hedge with Kawhi (30-1) and Embiid (9-1)

Yeah, who knows with COVID.

Again, not that anyone cares, but my formula - which is based exclusively on WS, VORP, a couple of +/- stats, and team record - ranks these four players as: 1 - Kawhi, 2- LeBron, 3 - Davis, 4 - George, so it seems weird to me that Kawhi wouldn't get it because of George, whereas Davis isn't seen as an even bigger problem for LeBron. I mean weird, but I get it. That's how narratives work. They stretch the facts to fit the story.

If I were getting those kinds of odds, I'd probably bet the three names I mentioned and leave LeBron out. However, this isn't the year (COVID, again) I'd be betting at all, even if I were a bettor.

To be perfectly clear, though, do not base your betting decisions on anything I say that isn't objectively falsifiable. That would be the dumbest thing you could do.

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

FG% = Kawhi
3P% = Kawhi
FT% = Kawhi
Ast/TO = Kawhi
PPG = Kawhi
ORtg = Kawhi
WS = Kawhi
PER = Kawhi
TS% = Kawhi
WS/48 = Kawhi
OnCourt = Kawhi
On-Off = Kawhi
RAPTOR and RAPTOR WAR = Kawhi

But LeBron's team has a 0.5 game lead in the standings, so according to this thread, he's got it locked up.

The LeBron-stan blinders are just going to get funnier and funnier as he ages...

Just a reminder that even though James had one great game, this entire post is still completely accurate.

I haven't seen a more biased representation and blatant Cherry picking of stats like this one just yet ... AST/TO without the Assists.

PPG without minutes played (not PER36)

It's not LeBron right now. I think most have Embiid/Jokic but atleast be honest and don't pull this stuff like school kids man..

[scrabbarista]

FG% = Kawhi
3P% = Kawhi
FT% = Kawhi
Ast/TO = Kawhi
PPG = Kawhi
ORtg = Kawhi
WS = Kawhi
PER = Kawhi
TS% = Kawhi
WS/48 = Kawhi
OnCourt = Kawhi
On-Off = Kawhi
RAPTOR and RAPTOR WAR = Kawhi

But LeBron's team has a 0.5 game lead in the standings, so according to this thread, he's got it locked up.

The LeBron-stan blinders are just going to get funnier and funnier as he ages...

Just a reminder that even though James had one great game, this entire post is still completely accurate.

I haven't seen a more biased representation and blatant Cherry picking of stats like this one just yet ... AST/TO without the Assists.

PPG without minutes played (not PER36)

It's not LeBron right now. I think most have Embiid/Jokic but atleast be honest and don't pull this stuff like school kids man..

Post the case for other side.

Lol, imagine a lawyer in a courtroom being like, "The lawyer for the other side didn't argue my case for me! What a clown."

Sigh. Thanks for the laugh.

[Wigginstime]

Every advanced stat points to one guy if his team can get high enough in the standings:

Read on Twitter

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

Just a reminder that even though James had one great game, this entire post is still completely accurate.

I haven't seen a more biased representation and blatant Cherry picking of stats like this one just yet ... AST/TO without the Assists.

PPG without minutes played (not PER36)

It's not LeBron right now. I think most have Embiid/Jokic but atleast be honest and don't pull this stuff like school kids man..

Post the case for other side.

Lol, imagine a lawyer in a courtroom being like, "The lawyer for the other side didn't argue my case for me! What a clown."

Sigh. Thanks for the laugh.

I'm not claiming anything for the other side but context is important man. How can you post PPG that's not PER36? How do you not post Assists but AST/To? That's disingenuous IMO and just paints a completely wrong picture.

Anyway, MVP threads are too argumentative, biased and triggers people way too much for my liking. So ignore my previous post. Apologies and do continue with your posts.

[AdagioPace]

Every advanced stat points to one guy if his team can get high enough in the standings:

Read on Twitter

I agree its jokic.
Heres another interesting one. Universe expansion

Read on Twitter

[yoyoboy]

People know that TPA stat is just cumulative BPM right? Not sure why it's always brought up so much. I guess because it's in a clean neat graph format.

[Statlanta]

Utah and LAC are shooting unsustainable 3pt percentages, Portland is injured, GS is inconsistent ditto for Dallas. Who's stopping Denver from claiming a top seed

[Homer38]

Utah and LAC are shooting unsustainable 3pt percentages, Portland is injured, GS is inconsistent ditto for Dallas. Who's stopping Denver from claiming a top seed

The Lakers?

[AdagioPace]

People know that TPA stat is just cumulative BPM right? Not sure why it's always brought up so much. I guess because it's in a clean neat graph format.

I dont know whats the problem with BPM either..many mvp winners were at the top or close..the neat presentation is not only aesthetically pleasing but it also gives a better idea of where the player is relatively to the rest of the pack (team or league).

[Ballerhogger]

Utah and LAC are shooting unsustainable 3pt percentages, Portland is injured, GS is inconsistent ditto for Dallas. Who's stopping Denver from claiming a top seed

Lebron James

[Kings4win]

So, at moment is between...

Lebron
Kawhi
Embiid
Jokic

Am i forgetting someone?
KD, Luka...

Mike Conley according to some

[levon]

People know that TPA stat is just cumulative BPM right? Not sure why it's always brought up so much. I guess because it's in a clean neat graph format.

it's a collage of handsome faces

[yoyoboy]

People know that TPA stat is just cumulative BPM right? Not sure why it's always brought up so much. I guess because it's in a clean neat graph format.

I dont know whats the problem with BPM either..many mvp winners were at the top or close..the neat presentation is not only aesthetically pleasing but it also gives a better idea of where the player is relatively to the rest of the pack (team or league).

BPM is at least one of the better stats out there but it’s far from perfect. And it’s significantly less useful now that the formula was changed to accommodate for the Russell Westbrook outlier where he broke the stat for a couple seasons because of the assists + rebounds interaction. Using it as a be all-end all metric is just wrong. Especially when it comes to defense it’s incredibly limited.