Tank World Order

[Drygon]

Didn't Miami finish from 7-11 and two consecutive years drafted Herro (at 13) and Bam (at 14)?

Nuggets were also a 7-11 team when they drafted Jokic, Murray and MPJ.

So I don't really get it. You see where the cards fall. Yeah if we are easily out of the playoffs by the deadline with no shot then yeah I'd be for giving the season away. You don't do it right now.

Miami signed Butler who wanted to go there. Are any stars of Butler's caliber knocking on our doors wanting to sign here?

You can give more anecdotes if you want, but at the end of the day you build in one or more of 3 ways: (1) Sign a star free agent - nope, no one knocking; (2) Trade for a star - nope, we have no one on the roster who can fetch a star; (3) That leaves finding a star through the draft. Nothing is guaranteed but history says the higher you draft the greater chance of finding that cornerstone talent to build upon. That's why teams tank.

The reality is our title has made people believe that it is a replicable strategy, and are now trying to make the exceptions to the rule in terms of making a contender teams - now the norm.

As you said, we can’t sign a FA, we have less assets to trade for a superstar and a Kawhi like situation with the pennies on the dollar won’t happen again, and if it somehow does, the league won’t just sit on its thumbs and let us be the only team in on it.

I don’t understand how getting the one piece is said so easily now because we did it in such a rare fashion.

It’s the hardest piece to get, and it almost always comes from the draft if not FA which isn’t an option for us.

The Lakers were one piece away and added Shaq, the Warriors were already a title team but were a piece away from being unstoppable and getting KD.

Saying it so calm and simple doesn’t take away from how difficult it is.

In our franchise history we had that one piece for literally one season.

Even Vince as great as he was - wasn’t at that level.

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

[ATLTimekeeper]

"Twisting Everything"... Dude, you're a damn artist at making bad faith arguments that either lack context or use cherry-picked evidence...

Every champion in the 1990s was won by a player drafted in the lottery in the 1980s... The only exception is 1999 after SAS tanked due to D.Robinson's injury and were able to draft T.Duncan (#1) to add as a partner to their HOF Center...

Most lottery picks are chosen by bad teams and it takes a number of years before those teams can develop said player and build themselves into contenders... Expecting lottery picks on their rookies scale deals to come out and beat Hall of Fame players like Jordan, Hakeem, Ewing, Malone, Miller, etc is foolish-thinking. The year that Orlando was able to make the Finals in the 1990s when Jordan had retired was still considered a shock because of the age of their two phenoms in Shaq (#1) and Penny (#3), even though they had added to NBA All-Star & Champion H.Grant. Players that were drafted in the lottery in the 1990s, didn't start winning championships until the 2000s... The way you are utilizing your sample and forming your conclusions is disingenuous.

If we're talking about tanking as a strategy on the whole to build a champion and reverse engineering the title winners using draft results, it's important to note how rare these drafts actually occur.

3 drafts to win all the 90s titles, two of which occurred prior to the draft lottery.

What we know is true is that the draft isn't a crapshoot. The best talent tends to be found near the top of the draft. What we also know is true, that the best talent have large tiers amongst themselves. Anthony Davis is likely the best 1st overall pick since LeBron, and even he wasn't good enough to vault a team into contender status. This puts the most likely result of striking oil in the draft, for even a good team, as a farm team, or an extended purity test of said drafted star to prove he's most likely illegitimate. To add to this, we know, that even really good management teams routinely blow top picks. There's very little assurance that the Raptors recent spate of good late round selections will help them at the top of the draft. So if we know that all drafts aren't created equal, and all superstars aren't created equal, and there's significant gaps of uncertainty in scouting evaluations, I conclude that making a plan to be bad is not a very good plan.

[Skeezo]

If we're talking about tanking as a strategy on the whole to build a champion and reverse engineering the title winners using draft results, it's important to note how rare these drafts actually occur.

3 drafts to win all the 90s titles, two of which occurred prior to the draft lottery.

What we know is true is that the draft isn't a crapshoot. The best talent tends to be found near the top of the draft. What we also know is true, that the best talent have large tiers amongst themselves. Anthony Davis is likely the best 1st overall pick since LeBron, and even he wasn't good enough to vault a team into contender status. This puts the most likely result of striking oil in the draft, for even a good team, as a farm team, or an extended purity test of said drafted star to prove he's most likely illegitimate. To add to this, we know, that even really good management teams routinely blow top picks. There's very little assurance that the Raptors recent spate of good late round selections will help them at the top of the draft. So if we know that all drafts aren't created equal, and all superstars aren't created equal, and there's significant gaps of uncertainty in scouting evaluations, I conclude that making a plan to be bad is not a very good plan.

That is the only the point that really matters when trying to accumulate talent to contend when you are not a Free Agent Destination...

You're right about the gaps in talent and variation in drafts... We may not EVER be in a position to draft a generational talent that is worthy of vaulting our team into contender status by themselves. However, being higher in the draft provides better opportunity for higher quality talent which can be used in trades to get players missed in drafts or needed to get to the next level.

For example, let's look at the lottery picks we used in trades to first build ourselves into contenders and then ultimately traded to get us over the hump

2009: DeRozan (#9) ... DD was best player we could have gotten at #9, and nobody chosen later would have equivalent value for a Leonard trade

2011: K.Walker (#9), K.Thompson (#11), K.Leonard (#15) over our pick of J.Valanciunas (#5)
• One player drafted in the 20s or later would have the same or better trade value as JV in trade for Gasol... J.Butler (#30)

2012: A.Drummond (#9) over our pick of T.Ross (#8)
• One player drafted in the 20s or later would have the same or better trade value as Ross in trade for Ibaka... K.Middleton (#39)

2013: G.Antetokoumpo (#15) over #12 pick used in trade for K.Lowry

Regardless of the availability of generational talent, the theory of probability still suggests better opportunities for higher-level talent at the top of the draft which can be leveraged later on... There is even less assurance the Raptors recent spate of good late round selections will continue at all because less talent is available at the backend of the draft.

As mentioned previously by another member, the word "tank" is often being used disingenuously to think that the majority of TWO is advocating for trading the entire team away... That is not the case... Most are simply seeking to trade Lowry and Powell because contracts and age don't align with the rest of the core. If a FVV/Siakim/OG core still gets us into the playoffs or a late lotto pick so be it... I would still rather a couple of additional draft assets AND the #15 pick this year, instead of ONLY having the #20 pick because I didn't want to trade Lowry even though he is likely gone at the end of the year.

[MixxSRC]

Question 1 - In your estimation, what is the probability of getting a Kawhi Leonard/Lebron James/Luka Doncic type via tanking?

Question 2 - In your estimation, what is the average level of player the average tank job produces?

Question 1 - Who is an existing star who will be available because he wants to be traded?

Question 2 - Which star Raptors can get in free agency?

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

[720]

Question 1 - Who is an existing star who will be available because he wants to be traded?

Question 2 - Which star Raptors can get in free agency?

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Spoiler:

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now that you answered him with facts he’ll probably runaway and won’t answer your question. That’s what these guys do.

[Raptors_128]

Question 1 - Who is an existing star who will be available because he wants to be traded?

Question 2 - Which star Raptors can get in free agency?

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

My man brought the numbers lmao

[ReggieSlater]

Very questionable methodology, but I don't think anyone argues with the reasoning that...

A) Higher draft picks are more likely to be good
B) Good players are more likely to win championships

That is all the sources are saying. That is basically the entirety of the tanking mantra.

[Steelo Green]

Very questionable methodology, but I don't think anyone argues with the reasoning that...

A) Higher draft picks are more likely to be good
B) Good players are more likely to win championships

That is all the sources are saying. That is basically the entirety of the tanking mantra.

Where’s curious with regard to the methodology?

Just curious as to your thoughts.

[Pooh_Jeter]

I get why the word tank is a trigger for some, but I would think after all these years since the process (tanking was a thing well before that) and the discussions even on here people would understand it's not just burn everything to the ground and pray for the #1 pick. The process was the extreme of tanking and even Hinkie himself would acknowledge there are aspects of it he would change. Despite the missteps and the NBA essentially cutting off the head of the snake the 76ers are still in a pretty good spot.

Tanking is one aspect of rebuilding your asset base. If you're hoping and praying on one pick to change your entire destiny that isn't a great plan, but that is why you deal guys like Kyle, Norm, Boucher etc. for futures. Whether it be picks, prospects or just roster players that have more term you can increase your flexibility going forward.

No, you aren't going to get every pick in the top 5 for those 3 players, but draft picks and guys on rookie deals are valuable and easy to trade. The more shots you have in a draft the more likely you are to hit on something. If you acquire a veteran in a deal showcase their value and then flip them when a team with a need comes calling.

You want to move up in a draft or target a star that becomes valuable? Having extra draft assets and young controllable players with upside is what gets deals done.

If you absolutely knock it out of the park in one draft you can accelerate the timeline as needed. If a pick isn't quite what you hoped for you can do a mini reset and it's relatively painless. Look what just waiting with your fingers crossed for Giannis got the Raptors. They lost a bunch of valuable pieces for nothing and haven't acquired any draft capital beyond their own and their best prospect is Malachi Flynn. The plan being to wait for the next star is asinine when you don't have assets to get a deal done and you aren't a FA destination.

The longer you kick the can down the road the more opportunities you lose to improve the team and the harder an eventual reset will be.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Regardless of the availability of generational talent, the theory of probability still suggests better opportunities for higher-level talent at the top of the draft which can be leveraged later on... There is even less assurance the Raptors recent spate of good late round selections will continue at all because less talent is available at the backend of the draft.

As mentioned previously by another member, the word "tank" is often being used disingenuously to think that the majority of TWO is advocating for trading the entire team away... That is not the case... Most are simply seeking to trade Lowry and Powell because contracts and age don't align with the rest of the core. If a FVV/Siakim/OG core still gets us into the playoffs or a late lotto pick so be it... I would still rather a couple of additional draft assets AND the #15 pick this year, instead of ONLY having the #20 pick because I didn't want to trade Lowry even though he is likely gone at the end of the year.

To address the last paragraph first, if we're talking about low odds of even landing a starter (#15 pick and beyond, to use your example), then I do question the value of just making these trades for the sake of turning the page in order to facilitate a rebuild. And I've argued the opposite position before, but in the case of Lowry, he won us a title and will go down as the greatest Raptor of this era. Treating him as bait for some extra lotto tickets would be wrong, imo, but (correct me if I'm wrong) I feel as though that ruthlessness is seen as a necessary evil for quite a few people. Say Lowry wanted to finish out the year here, for whatever reason, do you think the Raptors should trade him for the #15th pick this year anyway?

Now, for the first paragraph, increasing probability on such meagre odds is why I tend to not even consider it a worthwhile gambit. What's stopping the Raptors from trading into the lottery in the future to grab a player they're interested in? And what exactly are they missing out on by letting the team they've assembled play through it?

[bluerap23]

Miami signed Butler who wanted to go there. Are any stars of Butler's caliber knocking on our doors wanting to sign here?

You can give more anecdotes if you want, but at the end of the day you build in one or more of 3 ways: (1) Sign a star free agent - nope, no one knocking; (2) Trade for a star - nope, we have no one on the roster who can fetch a star; (3) That leaves finding a star through the draft. Nothing is guaranteed but history says the higher you draft the greater chance of finding that cornerstone talent to build upon. That's why teams tank.

The reality is our title has made people believe that it is a replicable strategy, and are now trying to make the exceptions to the rule in terms of making a contender teams - now the norm.

As you said, we can’t sign a FA, we have less assets to trade for a superstar and a Kawhi like situation with the pennies on the dollar won’t happen again, and if it somehow does, the league won’t just sit on its thumbs and let us be the only team in on it.

I don’t understand how getting the one piece is said so easily now because we did it in such a rare fashion.

It’s the hardest piece to get, and it almost always comes from the draft if not FA which isn’t an option for us.

The Lakers were one piece away and added Shaq, the Warriors were already a title team but were a piece away from being unstoppable and getting KD.

Saying it so calm and simple doesn’t take away from how difficult it is.

In our franchise history we had that one piece for literally one season.

Even Vince as great as he was - wasn’t at that level.

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

1. The bolded above is incorrect as we already proved trading for a star is possible. It may not be possible at this time, but that does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

2. We drafted Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter in 3 consecutive years with the #2, #9 and #4 picks. That is an exceptional haul via the draft. That team never reached the level of achievement that this iteration has (even if you remove Kawhi, which is a very heavy bias).

3. The draft is one way to build a contender and it should not be ruled out, but suggesting it is the only way is ignoring history.

[Steelo Green]

Miami signed Butler who wanted to go there. Are any stars of Butler's caliber knocking on our doors wanting to sign here?

You can give more anecdotes if you want, but at the end of the day you build in one or more of 3 ways: (1) Sign a star free agent - nope, no one knocking; (2) Trade for a star - nope, we have no one on the roster who can fetch a star; (3) That leaves finding a star through the draft. Nothing is guaranteed but history says the higher you draft the greater chance of finding that cornerstone talent to build upon. That's why teams tank.

The reality is our title has made people believe that it is a replicable strategy, and are now trying to make the exceptions to the rule in terms of making a contender teams - now the norm.

As you said, we can’t sign a FA, we have less assets to trade for a superstar and a Kawhi like situation with the pennies on the dollar won’t happen again, and if it somehow does, the league won’t just sit on its thumbs and let us be the only team in on it.

I don’t understand how getting the one piece is said so easily now because we did it in such a rare fashion.

It’s the hardest piece to get, and it almost always comes from the draft if not FA which isn’t an option for us.

The Lakers were one piece away and added Shaq, the Warriors were already a title team but were a piece away from being unstoppable and getting KD.

Saying it so calm and simple doesn’t take away from how difficult it is.

In our franchise history we had that one piece for literally one season.

Even Vince as great as he was - wasn’t at that level.

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

You’re listing a lot of box score advanced stats.

He wasn’t top ten in MVP voting that year.

Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Iverson, Webber, Kidd, Garnett were all better.

Kawhi is a level above Vince.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Tanking is one aspect of rebuilding your asset base. If you're hoping and praying on one pick to change your entire destiny that isn't a great plan, but that is why you deal guys like Kyle, Norm, Boucher etc. for futures. Whether it be picks, prospects or just roster players that have more term you can increase your flexibility going forward.

No, you aren't going to get every pick in the top 5 for those 3 players, but draft picks and guys on rookie deals are valuable and easy to trade. The more shots you have in a draft the more likely you are to hit on something. If you acquire a veteran in a deal showcase their value and then flip them when a team with a need comes calling.

In terms of flexibility, they do have all their firsts and near max cap room. Seems pretty good. Rookie deal players can be valuable and easy to trade, but the bust % is still fairly high and trade value goes way down once driven off the lot. I'd propose you look at the 2019 draft and tell me how many of those in the top 10 could be traded for a top 10 pick right now. Teams tend to fall in love with their picks and make them "untouchable," too, which has the tendency to reduce flexibility. Miami took Tyler Herro off the table for Harden, for a recent example. That may or may not come back to bite them.

The longer you kick the can down the road the more opportunities you lose to improve the team and the harder an eventual reset will be.

Nope. You just need one lucky strike.

[BDE]

How some are even trying to make the argument that tanking isn't the way to go and that the odds of getting an all-star or cornerstone piece for your franchise aren't significantly improved by doing so, is baffling.

It's simple.

1. Trade your depreciating/older/declining assets (Norm, Lowry) for future assets (1st rd picks, prospects)
2. Develop your younger talent by devoting more minutes to them, especially in key in-game moments, and letting them play through mistakes and growing pains (Flynn, SJ, etc). This way, you prioritize development over winning (this year)
3. Reduce minutes of key players who have the ability to steal a win or two (FVV, Siakim, OG)
4. Use cap space this summer to add a key player to complement our existing core - FVV, Siakim, OG.
5. Use the draft picks from #1 point to add a key player or prospect to our existing core.
6. Go into next season with the mandate that it is no longer development > winning. It is now, under the full support of the live Toronto audience (hopefully bye bye Tampa), Winning > development.

It's that simple. If you dont talk, you essentially, and potentially, remove #1, 2, 3 and 5 from your list. And really limit your ability to take advantage of #6. For what? A shot at a playoff spot and 1st round exit this year infront of a Tampa crowd? Where's the logic in that?


The issue, ultimately, is moreso that we don't have a team that just lays down for anyone. Which is a huge positive, but obv difficult when the intention is development, aka Tanking. And we have a mad scientist coach who believes in winning at all costs and isn't used to letting his younger talent play through errors. So it would essentially be an adjustment for everyone. With a shortened season, might be worth the gamble.

[Steelo Green]

The reality is our title has made people believe that it is a replicable strategy, and are now trying to make the exceptions to the rule in terms of making a contender teams - now the norm.

As you said, we can’t sign a FA, we have less assets to trade for a superstar and a Kawhi like situation with the pennies on the dollar won’t happen again, and if it somehow does, the league won’t just sit on its thumbs and let us be the only team in on it.

I don’t understand how getting the one piece is said so easily now because we did it in such a rare fashion.

It’s the hardest piece to get, and it almost always comes from the draft if not FA which isn’t an option for us.

The Lakers were one piece away and added Shaq, the Warriors were already a title team but were a piece away from being unstoppable and getting KD.

Saying it so calm and simple doesn’t take away from how difficult it is.

In our franchise history we had that one piece for literally one season.

Even Vince as great as he was - wasn’t at that level.

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

1. The bolded above is incorrect as we already proved trading for a star is possible. It may not be possible at this time, but that does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

2. We drafted Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter in 3 consecutive years with the #2, #9 and #4 picks. That is an exceptional haul via the draft. That team never reached the level of achievement that this iteration has (even if you remove Kawhi, which is a very heavy bias).

3. The draft is one way to build a contender and it should not be ruled out, but suggesting it is the only way is ignoring history.

1. None of those players were at Kawhi’s level, not sure what’s untrue about Kawhi being better than Vince but you changed what I said.

Also with regard to history I said it happened in the rarest fashion for us and isn’t really replicable. Just going by the numbers...

2. That team never reached the level because Camby said trade me, T-Mac right before he blew up said I don’t want to stay. This is changing history as though we had all of them in their primes and failed. 2 years of Camby and 3 of TMac and both out by the end of their rookie contracts isn’t really much of a discussion.

3. No one said it is the only way, we said it is historically the best way. Most titles throughout history are won through their draft pick or a player who chose their destiny. We are not a destination so the latter doesn’t apply. The way we won is the exception of the exceptions and to think it is replicable just because it happened to us (Kawhi for pennies on the dollar because he had a year off, us being the only team in on it, SA giving a FU to Kawhi and LA and sending him to Toronto for lesser assets) doesn’t make it the model you want to keep going after.

[Pooh_Jeter]

In terms of flexibility, they do have all their firsts and near max cap room. Seems pretty good. Rookie deal players can be valuable and easy to trade, but the bust % is still fairly high and trade value goes way down once driven off the lot. I'd propose you look at the 2019 draft and tell me how many of those in the top 10 could be traded for a top 10 pick right now. Teams tend to fall in love with their picks and make them "untouchable," too, which has the tendency to reduce flexibility. Miami took Tyler Herro off the table for Harden, for a recent example. That may or may not come back to bite them.

There is a case of teams falling in love with their own draft picks, but it's also about scouting and development time. It doesn't make sense to trade a top 10 pick from 2019 for a top 10 pick this year unless they are a colossal failure in which case the other team obviously would have no interest.

The Herro and even Maxey to a lesser degree examples could definitely bite them in the ass, but it also illustrates how valuable those pieces are. They were potential main pieces in a deal for a top 5 player in the league. It's why trading Lowry for say the 15th pick or whatever you get becomes extra valuable. I don't think anyone is advocating dealing him against his wishes, he would essentially choose where he wants to go. If he wanted to sign an extension and stay then you can do that, but there are no indications he is interested in that.

This also ties into your thoughts on trading for a lotto pick. It's rare for a team to trade a lotto pick the year that pick is being made. When it does happen it's usually to move slightly down the draft and pick up extra assets. The 20th pick, Flynn and a future first aren't going to get you a top 5 pick. You're talking about moving Siakam, OG and/or FVV if you want to move up that high and it has to be to a team that is looking to win now. But, at that point aren't you just putting yourself in a rebuild anyways? This is what I'm talking about kicking the can down the road. Why not have your own top 5 pick then have the flexibility to add another one or just trade for players more in that timeline?

Nope. You just need one lucky strike.

I mean, sure, but you have been talking about the probabilities of a draft pick being a bust, what is the probability of another Kawhi deal? Banking your future success on this hope seems ridiculous. Luck plays apart of anything, but you can't bank on it.

[Skeezo]

Regardless of the availability of generational talent, the theory of probability still suggests better opportunities for higher-level talent at the top of the draft which can be leveraged later on... There is even less assurance the Raptors recent spate of good late round selections will continue at all because less talent is available at the backend of the draft.

As mentioned previously by another member, the word "tank" is often being used disingenuously to think that the majority of TWO is advocating for trading the entire team away... That is not the case... Most are simply seeking to trade Lowry and Powell because contracts and age don't align with the rest of the core. If a FVV/Siakim/OG core still gets us into the playoffs or a late lotto pick so be it... I would still rather a couple of additional draft assets AND the #15 pick this year, instead of ONLY having the #20 pick because I didn't want to trade Lowry even though he is likely gone at the end of the year.

To address the last paragraph first, if we're talking about low odds of even landing a starter (#15 pick and beyond, to use your example), then I do question the value of just making these trades for the sake of turning the page in order to facilitate a rebuild. And I've argued the opposite position before, but in the case of Lowry, he won us a title and will go down as the greatest Raptor of this era. Treating him as bait for some extra lotto tickets would be wrong, imo, but (correct me if I'm wrong) I feel as though that ruthlessness is seen as a necessary evil for quite a few people. Say Lowry wanted to finish out the year here, for whatever reason, do you think the Raptors should trade him for the #15th pick this year anyway?

Now, for the first paragraph, increasing probability on such meagre odds is why I tend to not even consider it a worthwhile gambit. What's stopping the Raptors from trading into the lottery in the future to grab a player they're interested in? And what exactly are they missing out on by letting the team they've assembled play through it?

Paul Pierce won Boston a title... D.Wade won the Heat multiple titles... Both teams made "ruthless" decisions with their stars which pushed them into rebuild mode. However, the timing and/or additional assets ultimately returned less long-term pain and a faster return to prominence... On the other hand, you could look at LAL who gave Bryant a two-year golden-parachute contract which hurt LAL from shifting to rebuilding mode and holding them in mediocrity for years.

You see trading Lowry as making him bait for extra first round picks... I see it as giving Lowry an opportunity to win another championship instead of playing in Tampa Bay (not Toronto) for a first round exit. Facts are, no rebuilding or garbage team is going to trade anything of value for a Lowry rental. The offers will come from teams who are on the cusp this year, and who may also have interest in Lowry's bird rights to sign him next year to extend that window further. In return, we get some assets that will outlast Lowry who is NOT staying in Toronto past this year. Lowry's legacy is secure and I'm positive there would be no hard feelings in the end, especially when they raise his number... Does Pierce still bleed Boston green? Is it still Wade County?

As per your final paragraph... Show me a history of draft day trades where teams were able to trade into the lottery without already having either a lotto pick to exchange or trading a bonafide All-Star for the pick. Sorry, but the statement reminds me of those who say, "we can just buy a late first round pick," even though the evidence suggests it rarely, if ever happens. Masai worked his ASS off to get a pick between 10-14 in 2012 to get Giannis, and he couldn't get it done. Dallas had to give up a first round pick just to move up two spots (#5 >>>#3) to get Luka... It's not as easy as you suggest, especially if you keep letting your assets walk for nothing which stops you from accumulating enough assets to do that type of a trade.

Finally, is your last question rhetorical? We are missing out on the additional assets that can be gained by trading Lowry/Powell, plus the chance that we finish worse in the standings in an already "lost year" to receive a better draft selection.

Rebuilders vs Treadmillers comes down to one simple question and that is our allegiance to either the player "K.Lowry" or the organization "Raptors" ... Where you prioritize those two entities, will ultimately determine where on the fence you sit.

[bluerap23]

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

1. The bolded above is incorrect as we already proved trading for a star is possible. It may not be possible at this time, but that does not mean it won't be possible in the future.

2. We drafted Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter in 3 consecutive years with the #2, #9 and #4 picks. That is an exceptional haul via the draft. That team never reached the level of achievement that this iteration has (even if you remove Kawhi, which is a very heavy bias).

3. The draft is one way to build a contender and it should not be ruled out, but suggesting it is the only way is ignoring history.

1. None of those players were at Kawhi’s level, not sure what’s untrue about Kawhi being better than Vince but you changed what I said.

Also with regard to history I said it happened in the rarest fashion for us and isn’t really replicable. Just going by the numbers...

2. That team never reached the level because Camby said trade me, T-Mac right before he blew up said I don’t want to stay. This is changing history as though we had all of them in their primes and failed. 2 years of Camby and 3 of TMac and both out by the end of their rookie contracts isn’t really much of a discussion.

3. No one said it is the only way, we said it is historically the best way. Most titles throughout history are won through their draft pick or a player who chose their destiny. We are not a destination so the latter doesn’t apply. The way we won is the exception of the exceptions and to think it is replicable just because it happened to us (Kawhi for pennies on the dollar because he had a year off, us being the only team in on it, SA giving a FU to Kawhi and LA and sending him to Toronto for lesser assets) doesn’t make it the model you want to keep going after.

1. I didn't bold your comment (was already bolded by a previous quoter). I bolded and was referring to Tacoma's comment.

2. Camby never requested a trade. We traded him for Oakley to get a more experienced "win-now" guy. Many would say that it was a successful trade for both teams. I didn't change history, I simply pointed out that we drafted well and were not able to turn those assets into a true contender. TMac decided to leave, but so could any draft pick. This is a key point in why many teams are unable to build successfully through the draft. Many organizations are handicapped by location and that has an impact beyond free agency. This is probably the greatest argument against tanking. By the time you develop a true superstar he is often walking out the door.

3. Being the "best way" and the improbability of winning again via a trade for a star is your opinion. I prefer to look at facts.

[Badonkadonk]

Just reading through the past few days and TWO is all over the map.

Trading Kyle and Norm won't make the Raps a bottom 5 team. Some definitions of TWO still focus on that scenario (i.e. is that really 'tanking'?) and others focus on going scorched earth to make sure the team is legit bad for a few years.

The latter will never happen, not sure why it's even discussed.

The former, really comes down to what kind of deal you can get for Kyle. It has to be really good (eg. nice young piece and at least late lotto 1st), or it's not worth it given you're not going to dramatically increase your odds for one of those top picks.

[planetmars]

In terms of flexibility, they do have all their firsts and near max cap room. Seems pretty good. Rookie deal players can be valuable and easy to trade, but the bust % is still fairly high and trade value goes way down once driven off the lot. I'd propose you look at the 2019 draft and tell me how many of those in the top 10 could be traded for a top 10 pick right now. Teams tend to fall in love with their picks and make them "untouchable," too, which has the tendency to reduce flexibility. Miami took Tyler Herro off the table for Harden, for a recent example. That may or may not come back to bite them.

There is a case of teams falling in love with their own draft picks, but it's also about scouting and development time. It doesn't make sense to trade a top 10 pick from 2019 for a top 10 pick this year unless they are a colossal failure in which case the other team obviously would have no interest.

The Herro and even Maxey to a lesser degree examples could definitely bite them in the ass, but it also illustrates how valuable those pieces are. They were potential main pieces in a deal for a top 5 player in the league. It's why trading Lowry for say the 15th pick or whatever you get becomes extra valuable. I don't think anyone is advocating dealing him against his wishes, he would essentially choose where he wants to go. If he wanted to sign an extension and stay then you can do that, but there are no indications he is interested in that.

This also ties into your thoughts on trading for a lotto pick. It's rare for a team to trade a lotto pick the year that pick is being made. When it does happen it's usually to move slightly down the draft and pick up extra assets. The 20th pick, Flynn and a future first aren't going to get you a top 5 pick. You're talking about moving Siakam, OG and/or FVV if you want to move up that high and it has to be to a team that is looking to win now. But, at that point aren't you just putting yourself in a rebuild anyways? This is what I'm talking about kicking the can down the road. Why not have your own top 5 pick then have the flexibility to add another one or just trade for players more in that timeline?

Nope. You just need one lucky strike.

I mean, sure, but you have been talking about the probabilities of a draft pick being a bust, what is the probability of another Kawhi deal? Banking your future success on this hope seems ridiculous. Luck plays apart of anything, but you can't bank on it.

Just wanted to mention that Lowry is not allowed to sign an extension per CBA rules. He'll be a free agent at the end of the year.