ShotCreator wrote:116 minutes is more than two games. I don’t know why you are saying that would be one hundred possessions.
In this league 48 mins will easily get you 100 possessions.
In Gobert’s 58 mins without Conley he played 122 possessions.
In Conley’s 58 minutes he played 115 possessions.
There.
And 2-3 points of hypothetical noise means nothing and the example clearly accounts for a lot more than noise. Gobert-only lineups get destroyed, Conley-only lineups dominate. Your explaining it away as luck arbitrarily is an argument?
I’m supposed to look at, ALL the evidence. Not just isolated examples, but in-depth analysis of the data and say it’s just luck because you say so? Yeah, no.
I don’t care at all about Butler and Robinson. Robinson could easily be a new age Korver. Jimmy Butler is a lead guard that can’t shoot with a motor that’s slipping more and more.
That has nothing to do with this anyway.
And my ideas are not based on Gobert and Conley’s with/without splits.
It’s based on the fact that there are almost no moving parts from last year and Utah is playing tiers above last year. Conley’s clearly the only one who’s made some vast improvement. All the evidence trends towards it.
It’s basic common sense. This idea that you can fluke your way into dominance is absurd.
I don’t care about the future of what happens. That’s an open door to more conjecture.
We have games to watch for that suspense. So far, based on what has happened, Conley is clearly an MVP candidate to me. Way too much evidence to write off. Incredibly strong evidence at that.
I'm using Cleaning the glass, which has it at about 111 possessions. Median pace right now is about 100. And see my edit but:
And 2-3 points of hypothetical noise means nothing and the example clearly accounts for a lot more than noise. Gobert-only lineups get destroyed, Conley-only lineups dominate. Your explaining it away as luck arbitrarily is an argument?
Yes? I mean I'm not throwing away years of information to say "Hey these lineups are great on offense because now the Jazz are shooting well in 58 minutes.
The non-Gobert minutes have a well below average defense. They're good because in those minutes because in 111 possessions the Jazz have taken 45% of their shots as 3s and hit them at 43%. That's a prime example of small sample that's very likely unsustainable.
Conley/no Gobert, the top teammates in 3s attempted are Ingles at 5/11 and Clarkson 6/10, combining for 11/21 on 3s. Conley himself sub-30%.
Flip to Gobert/no Conley and the top teammates are shooting 7/23.
So yeah, sometimes its best to just not make a really wild hot take on it and see if stuff starts to make sense. Because right now the reason some of those lineups are a plus is because Ingles and Clarkson are on fire in those Conley lineups. The defense is sub-par.
I’m supposed to look at, ALL the evidence. Not just isolated examples, but in-depth analysis of the data and say it’s just luck because you say so? Yeah, no.
I mean, you're projecting anything meaningful from a few minutes a game...so uh...IDK? Like, this is a tiny sample lol.
It’s based on the fact that there are almost no moving parts from last year and Utah is playing tiers above last year. Conley’s clearly the only one who’s made some vast improvement. All the evidence trends towards it.
Well, Bogi is healthy and Favors is a reliable backup big. So instead of Gobert being replaced by Tony Bradley or Ed Davis it's an actual good backup. That's kind of a big deal.
We have games to watch for that suspense. So far, based on what has happened, Conley is clearly an MVP candidate to me. Way too much evidence to write off. Incredibly strong evidence at that.
Yes, after 100 possessions of data I too am prepared to declare MVP. KCP is leading the Lakers in net rating, and Beverly the Clippers. Neither of them are MVPs either. There's just a lot wrong to go over with the amount of data used.
