Is Luka-Sorry, the Mavericks going to miss the playoffs?

[sunsbg]

I’d bet a lot of money that the Mavs make the playoffs. It’s incredible how people can look at the standings right now and lose all context on how closely bunched most of the teams are and which teams have obviously be healthier than others.

You know a place they give good odds on Mavs making the playoffs ?

[Bob8]

Those who watch every Mavs game have noticed that Luka looks extremely depressed, he doesn't wanna play. That started right after that Bulls game when he tried hard to not lose by 40 to freaking Bulls. And then his g-league teammates were not happy that he was "ball-hogging too much". Freaking Iwundu level players were not happy, coz Luka ball-hogged... I'd stab them in the throat if I was Luka.

LOL, all his fans jumped at me when I said in the games thread he was ball-hogging in this game the first 6-7 mins way too much. Apparently his teammates felt the same. Everybody who has played a team sport at any level knows even scrubs would like to be involved in the game more.

When you were complaining about his ball-hogging, the starters beside him were Green/Iwundu/WCS.
First is averaging 2 points, second is averaging 2.5 points and 3rd is averaging 6 points and for things to be even worse, they have 0 play making ability. Tell me how could Luka played differently with those "starters"?

P.s. I don't blame you, if you have never heard for Green and Iwundu.

[Buzzard]

This is hilarious. The Mavericks are 1 game out of being tied for the 8th seed and only 2 games below .500. I think any team that can stay withing 5 games of the 8th seed and/or .500 in the 1st half has a shot at making the playoffs. Now if the Mavs get 10 games or more out after 36 games, their fan base can probably start worrying.

[Captain_Obvious]

I’d bet a lot of money that the Mavs make the playoffs. It’s incredible how people can look at the standings right now and lose all context on how closely bunched most of the teams are and which teams have obviously be healthier than others.

You know a place they give good odds on Mavs making the playoffs ?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

83%

[Archx]

To be honest, i have no clue where he saw that Iwundu complained. Iwundu is a really bad shooter and is incredibly limited on offense. Only thing he can do is drive to the rim once or twice per game. So i don't believe Iwundu would even have the balls to go at Luka, Cuban would carry him out of the gym himself.

As for Doncic's "ball hogging"... Here is the stat. Luka is averaging leagues best 19 potential assists per game, he has 51,7 AST% (6% higher than last season). He's is A MASSIVE 8% higher than Harden and Trae who are also two of the top5 assists leaders in the NBA and are 2nd and 3rd. Also, he actually leads the NBA in APG per 100 poss.

I don't want to be rude to either one of you, but if you two think he's ball hogging you shouldn't discuss basketball. He's actually one of THE MOST UNSELFISH players in the league. If Jokic is this ultimate team guy, then stats will tell you that Luka is up there with him or even better.

Mavs are missing everything, that's their issue (THEY ARE LAST IN THE NBA IN 3pt %), rim protection is a serious issue as well.

Doncic does have his own problems sure, his TS% is 4% lower than last season right now, so he has to improve there but he's doing absolutely EVERYTHING to involve his players. Normal stats and advance stats prove that.

Many people like you seem to think ball-dominant means someone who doesn't pass. Well, Harden and Westbrook have averaged more than 10apg in a season, I guess they are not ball-dominant players for you as well. Someone may want to provide stats to compare how long Jokic and Luka hold the ball when in the opponent's half-court if there is such stat.

Being ball dominat and selfish are two completely different things. Luka is ball dominat for a reason. He doesn't have the luxury to play with someone like Durant or AD or Giannis etc... players who can put the ball on the floor and do something with it. His best nr2 option for that is THJ, who is like a deer running towards headlights most of the time. He's good at scoring though when he is in form.

Funny thing is, Mavs reddit was just complaining the other day that he is not selfish enough, i remember because it was a huge discussion lol...

[zonedefense]

This is hilarious. The Mavericks are 1 game out of being tied for the 8th seed and only 2 games below .500. I think any team that can stay withing 5 games of the 8th seed and/or .500 in the 1st half has a shot at making the playoffs. Now if the Mavs get 10 games or more out after 36 games, their fan base can probably start worrying.

This. The team was good enough to end up with the 6th best net rating and SRS in the league last year. 7th seed in the west that lost a competitive playoff series against the Clippers. They replaced Seth Curry (25min/g) with Josh Richardson but for whatever reason people think the same supporting cast that was solid last season is terrible this year.
Bottom line: No need to panic. KP is looking just like he did prior to the allstar break last season. Sucks that he is always injured but when he was healthy (post allstar break) his net impact was bigger than Lukas. Big question mark are the COVID cases. How much time to they need to get back in shape? How much time do the Mavs need to develop some on court chemistry?

[Texas Chuck]

I’d bet a lot of money that the Mavs make the playoffs. It’s incredible how people can look at the standings right now and lose all context on how closely bunched most of the teams are and which teams have obviously be healthier than others.

So in full disclosure I said before the season started that Dallas shouldn't be considered a playoff lock, much less be predicted to finish with a top 4 seed where I saw them projected by quite a few outlets. Not that I didn't think they were a good team, but the West had no teams that were going to be tanking from the jump, KP is always a mystery box and when THJ is your most proven shooter, it wasn't that crazy to think that a team this dependent on the 3 could experience the bad side of variance this year.

But its not even that for me. I still think they will get it together and make at least the play-in games and probably as the team that only has to win once. But my concern is less the record and more the glaring problems that are visible when you follow a team every night. The defensive rebounding is tragic, the shot selection(and not just Luka) is awful, the lack of effort too often is embarrassing.

Getting all the bodies back--Maxi should be back in a few days--should start to really help as they were riding Green and Iwundu a couple of guys who shouldn't be in the rotation. But they have issues that need to be cleaned up. They have been playing bad basketball.

[The_Hater]

I’d bet a lot of money that the Mavs make the playoffs. It’s incredible how people can look at the standings right now and lose all context on how closely bunched most of the teams are and which teams have obviously be healthier than others.

You know a place they give good odds on Mavs making the playoffs ?

538 usually does that type of stuff. 83% right now and a 5% chance of winning the Conference.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

As it is, Dallas could be in the top 8 be the end of the weekend, which is why predicting the lottery at this early stage is silly. I personally think they’ll finish the season no worse than 5th in the west. Heck they’re only 2 games out of 5th right now.

[Scalabrine]

That’s so played out. I’m not saying he wasn’t a good coach in the past, he just isn’t now and frankly, hasn’t been for years. He’s been coasting off having a hall of fame star, past accomplishments, and good assistants for a decade now. If he was as good of a coach as people want to give him credit for, how come the Mavs have no players that are assets? Shouldn’t a good coach be making the roster better? Yet somehow Luka is the only one that routinely shows he’s worthy of a starter role.

Finney Smith was undrafted.now he's a solid starter.
Seth Curry had his two best seasons in Dallas.
Dwight Powell was drafted 45 and was looked at as a solid asset before his new deal and immediate achilles deal.
Jalen Brunson was a 2nd rounder and would start on some teams.
Trey Burke has found an NBA role under Carlisle.
Kleber came out of nowhere and has gotten better and better.

Carlisle has done quite a bit with guys that have been passed over by a ton of other teams. I think the bigger problem is getting all of these guys on medium sized deals and it clogs up their books while they still need to build their core.

I think they are in a pretty weird position here but I wouldn't blame Carlisle at all...

DFS isn't a solid starter.

you watch more than me so you'd know better but I felt like he was last year. Plus Defensively, above average 3 point shooter (37.6% on 4.3 attempts), efficient offensively (59.5ts%, 10.8 to%). His winshares per 48 was .11, and his vorp was 0.9, which isn't earth shattering, but it proves that he's a plus player.

I'd love to hear further explanation from someone who watches him ore than me...

[Bob8]

This is hilarious. The Mavericks are 1 game out of being tied for the 8th seed and only 2 games below .500. I think any team that can stay withing 5 games of the 8th seed and/or .500 in the 1st half has a shot at making the playoffs. Now if the Mavs get 10 games or more out after 36 games, their fan base can probably start worrying.

This. The team was good enough to end up with the 6th best net rating and SRS in the league last year. 7th seed in the west that lost a competitive playoff series against the Clippers. They replaced Seth Curry (25min/g) with Josh Richardson but for whatever reason people think the same supporting cast that was solid last season is terrible this year.
Bottom line: No need to panic. KP is looking just like he did prior to the allstar break last season. Sucks that he is always injured but when he was healthy (post allstar break) his net impact was bigger than Lukas. Big question mark are the COVID cases. How much time to they need to get back in shape? How much time do the Mavs need to develop some on court chemistry?

Problem isn't Mavs record, problem is how they look on the court. They had really bad luck with Covid, but they will need to show sooner than later, they're much better team. I'm not sure that being incredible bad in rebounding will change overnight just because some players are back. Similar is with 3pts shooting, players who are back, are not exactly fantastic shooters, Kleber has great %, but I doubt it's sustainable. Mavs have strange roster, many players totally or almost totally unusable. They need a trade badly, but they have almost 0 assets.

[jpengland]

Luka started slow, horrible schedule and an unbelievable amount of injuries to our top 8 players.

Also don't discount the lack of preseason when Carlisle has tried to instill defense following the all out offense of last year.

Health permitting, they will hit a groove in the next month and easily make the playoffs.

[zonedefense]

This is hilarious. The Mavericks are 1 game out of being tied for the 8th seed and only 2 games below .500. I think any team that can stay withing 5 games of the 8th seed and/or .500 in the 1st half has a shot at making the playoffs. Now if the Mavs get 10 games or more out after 36 games, their fan base can probably start worrying.

This. The team was good enough to end up with the 6th best net rating and SRS in the league last year. 7th seed in the west that lost a competitive playoff series against the Clippers. They replaced Seth Curry (25min/g) with Josh Richardson but for whatever reason people think the same supporting cast that was solid last season is terrible this year.
Bottom line: No need to panic. KP is looking just like he did prior to the allstar break last season. Sucks that he is always injured but when he was healthy (post allstar break) his net impact was bigger than Lukas. Big question mark are the COVID cases. How much time to they need to get back in shape? How much time do the Mavs need to develop some on court chemistry?

Problem isn't Mavs record, problem is how they look on the court. They had really bad luck with Covid, but they will need to show sooner than later, they're much better team. I'm not sure that being incredible bad in rebounding will change overnight just because some players are back. Similar is with 3pts shooting, players who are back, are not exactly fantastic shooters, Kleber has great %, but I doubt it's sustainable. Mavs have strange roster, many players totally or almost totally unusable. They need a trade badly.

So why was it working last season? What´s the difference?

[Mavrelous]

The Mavs looked great before COVID took out 4 starters.
Their second unit of Burke/THJ/Johnson/WCS was very good.
They are very deep at the wings Luka/THJ/Jrich/DFS/Johnson, with Burke and Brunson small guards, Kleber provided spacing, defense and hustle.
If they can go back to this form they are finishing top 4 in the west.
They are missing KP at good form, center and real PG in the 2nd unit.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[Bob8]

This. The team was good enough to end up with the 6th best net rating and SRS in the league last year. 7th seed in the west that lost a competitive playoff series against the Clippers. They replaced Seth Curry (25min/g) with Josh Richardson but for whatever reason people think the same supporting cast that was solid last season is terrible this year.
Bottom line: No need to panic. KP is looking just like he did prior to the allstar break last season. Sucks that he is always injured but when he was healthy (post allstar break) his net impact was bigger than Lukas. Big question mark are the COVID cases. How much time to they need to get back in shape? How much time do the Mavs need to develop some on court chemistry?

Problem isn't Mavs record, problem is how they look on the court. They had really bad luck with Covid, but they will need to show sooner than later, they're much better team. I'm not sure that being incredible bad in rebounding will change overnight just because some players are back. Similar is with 3pts shooting, players who are back, are not exactly fantastic shooters, Kleber has great %, but I doubt it's sustainable. Mavs have strange roster, many players totally or almost totally unusable. They need a trade badly.

So why was it working last season? What´s the difference?

They had fantastic and probably unrepeatable offense last year. This year their focus apparently is D, but they have brought only Richardson, who deserves playing time. Yes their defensive rating was good in the begging of the season, but it could be only because small sample size and very wild begging of Nba season. I don't believe only Richardson can change bad D in great one. So basically you need to repeat record offensive rating, which is of course not the easiest thing to do, especially without Seth.

[mulamutti]

Ball hog point guards don't work in basketball. you can go back forever, and there are very few ball-dominant pgs that don't pass that win (championships) in the NBA. You will find quite a few ball-dominant stat padding PGs whose teams are not successful. Iverson, Kyrie (he won cuz Lebron was the PG), damian lillard, etc.

it only works when the PG activates the other 5 people from the team. Luka obviously have passing capabilities, but he still tries to create his offense first. If he starts working solely on creating everyone's offense, and learns to activate his offense stealthily and when needed, dallas will succeed (on offense). i mean i couldn't watch last year's playoffs with luka just playing hero ball by himself. I dont care how crap his team is, they're nba players. plenty of other teams like spurs, raptors, miami etc. make their players look amaznig, by creating plays for them. ball hog point guards like luka make everyone look worse. Lebron always made his entire team look like studs. Luka better learn to do that, or he is going to be another damian lillard, kyrie or iverson (spectacular individually, but drags down the team to mediocrity or worse).

[DrPampiloni]

Ball hog point guards don't work in basketball. you can go back forever, and there are very few ball-dominant pgs that don't pass that win (championships) in the NBA. You will find quite a few ball-dominant stat padding PGs whose teams are not successful. Iverson, Kyrie (he won cuz Lebron was the PG), damian lillard, etc.

it only works when the PG activates the other 5 people from the team. Luka obviously have passing capabilities, but he still tries to create his offense first. If he starts working solely on creating everyone's offense, and learns to activate his offense stealthily and when needed, dallas will succeed (on offense). i mean i couldn't watch last year's playoffs with luka just playing hero ball by himself. I dont care how crap his team is, they're nba players. plenty of other teams like spurs, raptors, miami etc. make their players look amaznig, by creating plays for them. ball hog point guards like luka make everyone look worse. Lebron always made his entire team look like studs. Luka better learn to do that, or he is going to be another damian lillard, kyrie or iverson (spectacular individually, but drags down the team to mediocrity or worse).

This is one of the worst takes on Luka's game I've ever read: hear a better one from the reference-man you mention himself.

Watch on YouTube

[Archx]

Ball hog point guards don't work in basketball. you can go back forever, and there are very few ball-dominant pgs that don't pass that win (championships) in the NBA. You will find quite a few ball-dominant stat padding PGs whose teams are not successful. Iverson, Kyrie (he won cuz Lebron was the PG), damian lillard, etc.

it only works when the PG activates the other 5 people from the team. Luka obviously have passing capabilities, but he still tries to create his offense first. If he starts working solely on creating everyone's offense, and learns to activate his offense stealthily and when needed, dallas will succeed (on offense). i mean i couldn't watch last year's playoffs with luka just playing hero ball by himself. I dont care how crap his team is, they're nba players. plenty of other teams like spurs, raptors, miami etc. make their players look amaznig, by creating plays for them. ball hog point guards like luka make everyone look worse. Lebron always made his entire team look like studs. Luka better learn to do that, or he is going to be another damian lillard, kyrie or iverson (spectacular individually, but drags down the team to mediocrity or worse).

This is one of the worst takes on Luka's game I've ever read: hear a better one from the reference-man you mention himself.

Watch on YouTube

It's even more funny when 1 page before i listed statistical facts that Luka is one of the most unselfish players in the NBA and is actively looking to involve his team and then he goes and writes this.

[deb]

Finney Smith was undrafted.now he's a solid starter.
Seth Curry had his two best seasons in Dallas.
Dwight Powell was drafted 45 and was looked at as a solid asset before his new deal and immediate achilles deal.
Jalen Brunson was a 2nd rounder and would start on some teams.
Trey Burke has found an NBA role under Carlisle.
Kleber came out of nowhere and has gotten better and better.

Carlisle has done quite a bit with guys that have been passed over by a ton of other teams. I think the bigger problem is getting all of these guys on medium sized deals and it clogs up their books while they still need to build their core.

I think they are in a pretty weird position here but I wouldn't blame Carlisle at all...

DFS isn't a solid starter.

you watch more than me so you'd know better but I felt like he was last year. Plus Defensively, above average 3 point shooter (37.6% on 4.3 attempts), efficient offensively (59.5ts%, 10.8 to%). His winshares per 48 was .11, and his vorp was 0.9, which isn't earth shattering, but it proves that he's a plus player.

I'd love to hear further explanation from someone who watches him ore than me...

He's a swiss army knife of a forward that you can stick in at any forward position/role and he'll be reasonably productive and a net positive. He can also guard bigger guards, does a lot of little things and is a positive locker room presence. His contract is also super cheap, he gets like 4m per year. Great bang per buck really, any team could use a player like him, even contenders. Mavs are lucky to have him.

But he's not a player you can count on to consistently produce at a starter level. Let's just put it like this, he might win a game or two during the season or even in the playoffs by hitting key shots or scoring 20 points that single game, but if DFS hitting key shots is your gameplan, your team is in serious doodoo. He's inconsistent, unable to create, mediocre at best in any single offensive skill and while not bad defensively, he's not an elite stopper either. He can fill the specialist role in the starting lineup, but can't be relied on to be a key proponent of the teams offensive success. Thus, he's not a solid starter, but a good rotation piece.

[TheBonzaiEffect]

DFS isn't a solid starter.

you watch more than me so you'd know better but I felt like he was last year. Plus Defensively, above average 3 point shooter (37.6% on 4.3 attempts), efficient offensively (59.5ts%, 10.8 to%). His winshares per 48 was .11, and his vorp was 0.9, which isn't earth shattering, but it proves that he's a plus player.

I'd love to hear further explanation from someone who watches him ore than me...

He's a swiss army knife of a forward that you can stick in at any forward position/role and he'll be reasonably productive and a net positive. He can also guard bigger guards, does a lot of little things and is a positive locker room presence. His contract is also super cheap, he gets like 4m per year. Great bang per buck really, any team could use a player like him, even contenders. Mavs are lucky to have him.

But he's not a player you can count on to consistently produce at a starter level. Let's just put it like this, he might win a game or two during the season or even in the playoffs by hitting key shots or scoring 20 points that single game, but if DFS hitting key shots is your gameplan, your team is in serious doodoo. He's inconsistent, unable to create, mediocre at best in any single offensive skill and while not bad defensively, he's not an elite stopper either. He can fill the specialist role in the starting lineup, but can't be relied on to be a key proponent of the teams offensive success. Thus, he's not a solid starter, but a good rotation piece.

Except he's not a net positive. Negative BPM every year (-1.8 this year). 0 VORP. Last year he was solid -- but that was because he had EASILY his best 3PT season ever, at 38%. He's back to 30% this year. His other 3 years? 29%, 30%, 31%. So sadly, it looks like last year was an outlier. He is too light/small to play the 4. Even small-ball 4. Decent defender on wings, but he gets killed in the post and gets bullied by bigger wings. I really don't like "3 & D" guys that can't shoot threes and are only decent defenders. That's what DFS is. Not sure how the Mavs are "lucky" to have a negative BPM (and DBPM), average defender who shoots 30% from three...

[sunsbg]

I’d bet a lot of money that the Mavs make the playoffs. It’s incredible how people can look at the standings right now and lose all context on how closely bunched most of the teams are and which teams have obviously be healthier than others.

You know a place they give good odds on Mavs making the playoffs ?

538 usually does that type of stuff. 83% right now and a 5% chance of winning the Conference.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

As it is, Dallas could be in the top 8 be the end of the weekend, which is why predicting the lottery at this early stage is silly. I personally think they’ll finish the season no worse than 5th in the west. Heck they’re only 2 games out of 5th right now.

You mentioned betting a lot of money, so I meant bookies. It's not a smart decision to bet a lot of money to get 1/10 back especially on a team that is lottery-bound if their star goes down. Hopefully no one follows your advice and does it, that's why I asked this question.