KrazyP wrote:Pooh_Jeter wrote:KrazyP wrote:
Again you keep fixating on individual cases like Duncan, Lebron, Durant while completely ignoring the big picture and actual probabilities. If your goal is to get a franchise changing player like this.....you could easily tank for 3 years and not land such a player regardless of how good your scouting is. Its all a wild gamble....your line of reasoning is why so many tankster teams end up in a continous cycle of tanking.
So what are the percentage chances of the Raptors landing a star via trade, free agency or non lotto picks?
Even if we are to take all the numbers you provided as gospel, it doesn't prove any other team building method is actually better. Just that it isn't easy to get a star, which I don't think anyone is arguing.
There is no building method that has a good probability of landing a franchise changing star. If tank nation come to terms with this - thats step 1.
Step 2 is to come to the realization that there are actually tangible benefits of having a well managed, well coached team focused on playing hard, playing the right way and winning even if they arent a contender and even if they dont have a star. In order to become a top tankster team, you have to make sacrifices in these areas which is the reason why there seems to be a correlation between top tanking teams and a continued cycle of losing regardless of what players tanking teams draft.
VanVleet, OG, Siakam, Powell would not be the players they are today had they developed on a tankster team. I could easily see a guy like OG Anunoby developing into last years version of Stanley Johnson had he been drafted into a tankster environment. Not tanking actually has tangible value which leads to asset creation.
The Spurs and Heat are two of the best drafting/scouting teams in the league.....why have these teams not recently employed an all out tanking strategy to land a star? The Spurs are gunning for the playoffs with a team built around Derozan. After losing Lebron, Wade, Bosh, the Heat were making the playoffs for several years with Dragic leading the charge.....
Are Popovich/Buford and Riley/Spoelstra complete idiots? Perhaps they realize the draft itself is actually a crapshoot and the delta between a pick at x and a pick a few spots higher doesnt have enough value to offset the sacrifices you have to make to get that pick a few spots higher?? No, they must be idiots.
Well managed teams dont purposely tank to get the highest pick possible. Instead they consistently make logical decisions, build environments focused on winning and draft the best player available in the draft with little concern with how high or low their pick ends up. Lowry will likely be traded for a younger asset, the team will push hard to try and make the playoffs and towards the END of the season if they are too far out of the race, you may see them rest players. Thats a LOGICAL course of action for a well managed team in the given situation.
This is false causation. Tanking doesn't mean an organization becomes a failure. Teams that are consistently in the lottery are there because of a failure on all levels. When you have a terrible organization the team is bad thus you end up with high picks. When the organization as a whole is still awful, of course they will be perennial losers.
Take a look at the Timberwolves and Kings.
Terrible ownership who are either absentee or meddlesome. A ton of turnover in coaching and upper management. Routinely making terrible picks and not creating a developmental system for young players. Making ill advised trades or decisions which handicap their present and future.
All of those things I listed have nothing to do with tanking or rebuilding. A rebuild takes commitment from ownership all the way down. Whether its a complete tear down or just a retool it takes buy in and vision.
If you believe the Raptors exhibit all the same traits the Kings and Wolves do then it doesn't matter what method of team building you choose, it will fail. That is the point, people are trying to pin this down to tanking = bad organization when there is no causation there. A bad organization is a bad organization and are going to end up in the lottery because you guessed it, they are bad. There is no plan, leadership or vision. You have perennial losers across every sport because of these factors not because they are great organizations who took a chance to tank and suddenly their entire organizations self combusted.
The Spurs haven't tanked since Duncan because they drafted/traded for Kawhi, Tony Parker and Ginobli. 3 hall of gamers. They have a decent enough young core, but they have been irrelevant since Kawhi left. They have a bunch of nickels, dimes and quarters and are basically in the same position as the Raptors except they have better young pieces.
The Heat got Adebayo and Herro late in the lottery and are a FA destination. Because of nailing those picks and getting Butler they were able to do a retool instead of a rebuild. Precious who they picked this year is a much better prospect than Flynn as well.
Look at what the Thunder are doing. They are tanking and are still playing hard and developing. SGA is on track for his first all star berth in a stacked conference and all of their young guys are exhibiting growth. Lu Dort is a better prospect than anyone on the Raptors. We have already discussed the Cavs. Hell, look at the Knicks now that they have even some stability in their organization.
You can be a losing team on the court and still maintain a good culture and organization otherwise.
). So, getting Jimmy Butler's aren't actually that hard.