NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[scrabbarista]

how good is basketball refernece mvp tracker at picking the winner? Wonder how their historical tracker stacks up with the actual winner?

Right now bball ref has:
1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Kawhi
3. Lebron

I don't know how accurate it is historically, but those would be my top four right now if I had a vote. Not in the same order, but the same four. I'd definitely have Kawhi over Embiid, and then either Kawhi or Jokic at the top spot. I agree James should be fourth.

Also, I think you made a typo with LeBron. Kawhi's % chance is more than double LeBron's, so LBJ should be number 4, not number 3.

PS My formula (on the previous page) matches 10 of the last 12 winners. It has LeBron in 2011 (duh) and Curry in 2017. Before 2009, it's much less accurate, but I think that's because the voters were much worse at getting it right.

[C0bR]

I'm pretty amazed by how favourable the narrative is to Lebron James. It's not only ESPN, but SI had this article published yesterday: https://www.si.com/nba/2021/02/01/nba-mvp-race-lebron-james-joel-embiid-nikola-jokic

Most of them vote for Lebron, and those who don't, they imply they should've anyway (except the guy who votes for Kawhi, and still he compares him to Lebron, acknowledging who is the frontrunner).

Once the narrative is established, it's not so easy to let it go. It's early but this year he's not coming from behind in the race, so just stepping on the gas a little bit towards the end of the season could be enough.

I hope everybody gets a fair chance.

It's not that surprising.

As much as people want to pretend that MVP is only about a singular regular season it's just not true and it is informed by other things, for example offcourt behavior (an MVP favorite hit with a credible crime allegation 5 days before the voting isn't going to win the MVP). In the same vein it's also informed by prior seasons and postseason success. While MVP does not denote "best player", it very much connotes it and the enviroment around the league cannot be too happy that the award has gone to postseason frauds for the past half a decade. It simply reflects badly on the award and so the narrative for a postseason-resilient player who is otherwise only putting up a TOP3 finish season builds up.

[scrabbarista]

"Postseason frauds," lol. Curry lost in seven games in the Finals (while injured). Westbrook was a sixth seed. Harden lost in seven to the Durant Warriors. Antetokounmpo's team lost to lower seeds two years in a row, so you can call them "frauds," I guess, though last season, Giannis' PS numbers were excellent (31.5 PER, lead the post season in BPM, .610 TS%), and the season before, they lost in the Conference Finals to the eventual champs.

Maybe the league isn't happy about all of that - I wouldn't know - but "frauds" is a stretch, to say the least.

I'd be curious whether you think LeBron was a "postseason fraud" when he lost in the playoffs in 2009, 2010, and 2014 after winning the MVP. Or Rose in 2011. I'm just confused right now.

[BelgradeNugget]

Jokic is not playing defense right?

Read on Twitter

[BelgradeNugget]

Read on Twitter

[Yank3525]

"Postseason frauds," lol. Curry lost in seven games in the Finals (while injured). Westbrook was a sixth seed. Harden lost in seven to the Durant Warriors. Antetokounmpo's team lost to lower seeds two years in a row, so you can call them "frauds," I guess, though last season, Giannis' PS numbers were excellent (31.5 PER, lead the post season in BPM, .610 TS%), and the season before, they lost in the Conference Finals to the eventual champs.

Maybe the league isn't happy about all of that - I wouldn't know - but "frauds" is a stretch, to say the least.

I'd be curious whether you think LeBron was a "postseason fraud" when he lost in the playoffs in 2009, 2010, and 2014 after winning the MVP. Or Rose in 2011. I'm just confused right now.

If "postseason frauds" were a thing then LeBron would have never won the award again after 2010.

[brettski]

When was the last time two centres both got player of the month awards at the same time?

[Edrees]

Stacked teams didn’t prevent LeBron from winning in 2012 and 2013, so it shouldn’t prevent Durant. Team record will be the deciding factor, if the Nets win 58+ and Durant keeps up his current production then he has good shot winning especially given the injury he has come back from.

Why should an injury recovery have anything to do with MVP? in that case Lebron is MVP because he's 36. If you're going to consider injury, something that should be a complete nonfactor, I'm going to consider age, which is also a non factor. All that matters is how good you are. Tough luck if you got injured last year. It doesn't make you more valuable because you are coming off an achilles tear. You're literally admitting that narrative should matter.

I've got Jokic as my frontrunner personally. He's been playing the best with the least help of the candidates.

[Ballerhogger]

Jokic and embiid named players of the month

[Stribor]

Given the standings, there individual performances and perceived quality of the rooster around them, I think Embiid and Jokic are clear cut top contenders. LBJ is hurt by numbers and AD. Kawhi can enter the picture but he also has PG and regarding the numbers Jokic and Embiid stand above other contenders. I vote Embiid as a homer, but I can certainly understand everyone that picks Jokic. I do not understand those that put LBJ up there ...

[clyde21]

gotta be Jokic right now, leading the league in PER, VORP, BPM and WS.

i'd put Embiid second, after that it's some combo of KD, Steph or Kawhi.

[Gibson22]

[quote="lebron3-14-3"][quote="lebron3-14-3"]The guys who have chances are:
Embiid
Jokic
Kawhi
Kd
Giannis
PG
Lebron

1) Jokic, best playing level, hasn't missed a game, decent record
2) Embiid (missed 5 games, he's the closest to jokic as far as individual level, dominant scoring, good rebounding and defense, best record in the east)
3) Kawhi (missed 4 games, best record in the league after utah, classic kawhaian two way level: not the most eye-gaugging statline you'll ever see (26/5/5), but 62 TS% and all-defensive caliber defense)
4) Lebron (no missed games, respectable defense, easily top 10 as far as level of play, probably not top 5)
5) Giannis (no improvements, underwhelming team record, the guy still puts up 28/11.5/5.5 on 60 TS% and dpoy caliber defense)
6) Pg (missed 3 games, amazing scoring efficiency, I just see him do too little compared to other mvp candidates, even tho he has 5.5 assists he doesn't create much, not much of a leader etc, still amazing scorer/shooter and defender, and he also has decent rebounds/assists numbers)
7) Durant still playing like the #1 scorer in the league, 31 ppg on 65,5 TS%, but has an underwhelming record, missed 6 games and he doesn't really affect games other than his scoring,
others) Doncic Curry Lillard AD

[Dupp]

Lol at Steph. You’re not winning mvp or in the convo at .500




Joker should be clearly ahead and hopefully it stays that way. Get about $800 if he does

[Sakkreth]

Jokic is not playing defense right?

Read on Twitter

He doesn't, but he's still mvp so far.

[Johnny Firpo]

Jokic is not playing defense right?

Read on Twitter

He doesn't, but he's still mvp so far.

He does, he just doesn't protect the rim.

[eminence]

Jokic, Embiid, Kawhi, LeBron the pretty easy top 4 for me so far, lots of room for them to go up and down a bit. Not sure who I'd put 5th, but a bit of a gap, Durant/Gobert probably my top two for the spot.

[yoyoboy]

1. Jokic
2. Embiid

3. Kawhi
4. LeBron

5. Durant
6. Gobert

Then you have some combination of PG, Giannis, Steph, Doncic, Davis, etc.

[The_Hater]

My top 5 as of today.

Jokic
James
Embiid
Durant
Leonard

[BoatsNZones]

With the Nuggets record progressing to the mean and Jokic not taking any nights off while Embiid has missed a quarter of their games (Philly's record is impressive, but they have also played the easiest schedule in the NBA. I don't expect this pace to last), I don't see how it's not Jokic as the clear front-runner. His stats absolutely blow Lebron's out of the water (who has a player on his team with equal to better stats in many regards), and he's passing the eye test as a truly legendary talent.

If they have not already, I have to imagine guys like Zach Lowe will be on his train sooner than later as the clear favorite (they do play tomorrow night in LA on National TV, so the narrative will flip for Jokic if he has a normal game and they pull the upset), and then the rest of the media will get on board. You know Lebron is hyper-aware of this and doing everything he can to win MVP this year though, so I do expect a big performance from him as well.

[clyde21]

Lol at Steph. You’re not winning mvp or in the convo at .500




Joker should be clearly ahead and hopefully it stays that way. Get about $800 if he does

Steph took a 15 win team last year and has them single handedly in the PO hunt this year with his second best player being Andrew Wiggins

i agree, he shouldn't win it at that record obviously, but should get some 4th or 5th place votes.